BASEBALL ANALYSIS
BEGINNING THURSDAY JUNE 16
Atlanta at Cincinnati (4) 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th
The anemic Braves? offense (.224 team BA on the road, averaging 3.7 runs per game) will get a much needed shot in the arm vs. the worst pitching staff in the NL this side of the Rockies. Although the Braves more resemble the emergency ward of a metropolitan hospital lately than a baseball team, we?re beginning to believe any of the remaining teams in the NCAA baseball tourney could hit the Reds? pitching staff (starters? team ERA at home is 5.61) with Aaron Harang (2.16 ERA, .168 BAA at home) the only exception. BEST BET: Harang/ Braves in all other games.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JUNE 17
Arizona at Cleveland (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
The disappointing Indians? offense (.245 team BA, worst in the AL) is residing 29th in MLB in runs scored (252), but their pitching (starters? ERA is 3.95, relievers? ERA is 2.01) has been solid and is more than capable of bailing them out against the slumping Diamondbacks who have lost eight of 13. In addition, what was a solid pitching staff is slumping badly (7.14 ERA among starters last 11 days). BEST BET: Indians in all games.
Chicago Cubs at N.Y. Yankees (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
The Yankees have been the biggest money-burner (-$2400) by far in both leagues, so the idea of laying even a single dollar on them in any game is not particularly appetizing. However, with Carlos Zambrano iffy (sprained toe) for this series and Mark Prior still on the DL (Kerry Wood may return this week), we have no interest in backing a substitute starting pitching corps either. BEST BET: None.
Pittsburgh at Boston (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
The Pirates are hot (won nine of their last thirteen games) and have been profitable on the road so far (+$410), but it?s hard to ignore Boston?s offense in Fenway Park especially vs. righty starters (5.9 runs per game). It?s also impossible to ignore the Red Sox? excellent record vs. southpaw starters at home over the last year plus (21-11) and with three of them currently in the Pirates? rotation, we?ll take advantage. BEST BET: Red Sox vs. lefthanders.
San Francisco at Detroit (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
The Giants? starters, including the once great Jason Schmidt (20 earned runs in 18.1 innings since coming off the DL), have been awful all season, which is the main reason why San Francisco continues to free-falling out of contention (lost fourteen of their last sixteen) in the NL West. The Tigers have been impressive vs. portsiders (9-4, +$585), so we?re hoping that Kirk Rueter, Noah Lowry or sometime starter Jeff Fassero will get a shot in Michigan. BEST BET: Tigers vs. lefthanders.
Milwaukee at Toronto (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
The Brewers have had a surprisingly good season, but that doesn?t necessarily mean that they?re becoming a ?play on? team. On the road, Milwaukee is a sub par 11-21 (-$680). The Blue Jays, outside of Roy Halladay?s home efforts (3-1 at home with a 2.92 ERA and a .222 BAA, are no great shakes in Canada, but he?s good enough to warrant top play status. BEST BET: Halladay.
St. Louis at Tampa Bay (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
The Cardinals have been such a powerful team on the road over the last year plus (19-10, +$650 currently, 52-29, +$1800 last year) that it?s difficult to go any way other than to back them throughout this series. However, the prices will be sky-high in each game meaning you?ll have to sweep to generate a profit. The Devil Rays are making a profit at home (+$200, 15-13), but not enough to generate excitement. BEST BET:: None.
Colorado at Baltimore (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
The Orioles? hitters have probably been thinking about this series for a month. Baltimore leads the major leagues in batting average (.284), is second in home runs and entertains a beleagured Rockies? pitching staff whose starters have a road ERA of 5.79 and whose relievers are yielding over six runs per nine innings. We can?t think of a single scenario in which we?d think about backing the sad sack Rockies. An Orioles? sweep is certainly a solid possibility. BEST BET: Orioles in all games.
L.A. Dodgers at Chicago W. Sox (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
The Dodgers bring a pretty bad pitching staff (starters have a road 5.56 ERA, relievers have a 5.38 ERA) into Chicago where the White Sox are an overwhelming 21-6 (+$1345) and 15-4 (+$940) against righties. LA has been ineffective against righanders on the road (7-11, -$350), but awfully tough on lefties (7-1, +$620 averaging 7.1 runs per game in those contests). BEST BET: White Sox when righty meets righty/ Dodgers vs. lefthanders.
Washington at Texas (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
Here?s an interesting test for the upstart Nationals (+$1495). Washington?s starters allow 2.25 more RPG on the road than in RFK and they?ll be going up against one of the best offenses in either league. In addition, the Rangers are coming home after a disastrous road trip.They?re sure to be in an angry mood against a team that is traveling from a three-game set in Los Angeles vs. the Angels after a 13-game home stand. BEST BET: Rangers in all games.
Houston at Kansas City (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
Sure, the Astros have a much better pitching staff than the Royals but, they play so poorly on the road (7-23, -$1435) that it makes more sense to look to the home team first, especially in light of the way they?ve been playing lately. But finding a situation in which the Royals are attractive is like honing in on that proverbial haystack. BEST BET: None.
San Diego at Minnesota (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
The Padres? offense has been in a coma for the last two weeks. They?ve averaged 2.4 runs per game over the last ten games, all of which were played in San Diego. So, why should we assume that their hitters will wake up and start tearing the cover off the ball on the road? The Twins? staff is doing a fine job in the Metrodome (starters? ERA is 3.85, relievers? ERA is an excellent 2.57) and will add to the Padres? woes. BEST BET: Twins in all games.
Florida at L.A. Angels (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
The Marlins have been slumping (4-6, -$435 last 10 days) and might not be the greatest of investments in this series, but there is at least one situation that we have to jump on. The Angels average 1.3 RPG or 26% less runs vs. southpaws than against righties and the red hot Dontrelle Willis (3-1 on the road with a 3.24 ERA) is scheduled to pitch in California. So let?s jump all over the early frontrunner in the NL Cy Young race. The Marlins have played poorly on the road against righties (6-12, -$915) that we?ll have to back the Angels in that scenario even if Bartolo Colon, as anticipated, misses this series. BEST BET: Willis/Angels righthanders vs. all but Willis.
N.Y. Mets at Seattle (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
With the Mariners so ineffective when the opposition sends a southpaw to the mound (5-12, -$775 averaging 2.9 runs per game), the Mets would do well to have the hot Tom Glavine (five earned runs allowed in 20.2 innings over his last three starts) or the iffy Kaz Ishii ready to go at Safeco. We wouldn?t recommend any huge plays on the New Yorkers, however, as their 10-16 (-$485) road record indicates. For the Mariners, a play on Aaron Sele (2.84 ERA last two starts) makes the most sense. BEST BET:Lefthanders vs. the Mariners/Sele vs. New York righthanders.
Philadelphia at Oakland (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
The Athletics have won eight of their last ten home games and eight of their last 13 games, easily their most productive stretch of the year while, the Phillies have won six straight and 12 of their last 13 games so something?s got to give. The A?s score 42% more runs vs. southpaws than righties, but the lone Phillies? portsider, Randy Wolf, is not scheduled to make an appearance in this series. Oakland is a brutal 15-29 (-$1415) vs. righties averaging 3.8 RPG, so we?ll load up against them when Jon Leiber, Corey Lidle or Brett Myers head to the hill. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Athletics.
BEGINNING THURSDAY JUNE 16
Atlanta at Cincinnati (4) 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th
The anemic Braves? offense (.224 team BA on the road, averaging 3.7 runs per game) will get a much needed shot in the arm vs. the worst pitching staff in the NL this side of the Rockies. Although the Braves more resemble the emergency ward of a metropolitan hospital lately than a baseball team, we?re beginning to believe any of the remaining teams in the NCAA baseball tourney could hit the Reds? pitching staff (starters? team ERA at home is 5.61) with Aaron Harang (2.16 ERA, .168 BAA at home) the only exception. BEST BET: Harang/ Braves in all other games.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JUNE 17
Arizona at Cleveland (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
The disappointing Indians? offense (.245 team BA, worst in the AL) is residing 29th in MLB in runs scored (252), but their pitching (starters? ERA is 3.95, relievers? ERA is 2.01) has been solid and is more than capable of bailing them out against the slumping Diamondbacks who have lost eight of 13. In addition, what was a solid pitching staff is slumping badly (7.14 ERA among starters last 11 days). BEST BET: Indians in all games.
Chicago Cubs at N.Y. Yankees (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
The Yankees have been the biggest money-burner (-$2400) by far in both leagues, so the idea of laying even a single dollar on them in any game is not particularly appetizing. However, with Carlos Zambrano iffy (sprained toe) for this series and Mark Prior still on the DL (Kerry Wood may return this week), we have no interest in backing a substitute starting pitching corps either. BEST BET: None.
Pittsburgh at Boston (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
The Pirates are hot (won nine of their last thirteen games) and have been profitable on the road so far (+$410), but it?s hard to ignore Boston?s offense in Fenway Park especially vs. righty starters (5.9 runs per game). It?s also impossible to ignore the Red Sox? excellent record vs. southpaw starters at home over the last year plus (21-11) and with three of them currently in the Pirates? rotation, we?ll take advantage. BEST BET: Red Sox vs. lefthanders.
San Francisco at Detroit (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
The Giants? starters, including the once great Jason Schmidt (20 earned runs in 18.1 innings since coming off the DL), have been awful all season, which is the main reason why San Francisco continues to free-falling out of contention (lost fourteen of their last sixteen) in the NL West. The Tigers have been impressive vs. portsiders (9-4, +$585), so we?re hoping that Kirk Rueter, Noah Lowry or sometime starter Jeff Fassero will get a shot in Michigan. BEST BET: Tigers vs. lefthanders.
Milwaukee at Toronto (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
The Brewers have had a surprisingly good season, but that doesn?t necessarily mean that they?re becoming a ?play on? team. On the road, Milwaukee is a sub par 11-21 (-$680). The Blue Jays, outside of Roy Halladay?s home efforts (3-1 at home with a 2.92 ERA and a .222 BAA, are no great shakes in Canada, but he?s good enough to warrant top play status. BEST BET: Halladay.
St. Louis at Tampa Bay (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
The Cardinals have been such a powerful team on the road over the last year plus (19-10, +$650 currently, 52-29, +$1800 last year) that it?s difficult to go any way other than to back them throughout this series. However, the prices will be sky-high in each game meaning you?ll have to sweep to generate a profit. The Devil Rays are making a profit at home (+$200, 15-13), but not enough to generate excitement. BEST BET:: None.
Colorado at Baltimore (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
The Orioles? hitters have probably been thinking about this series for a month. Baltimore leads the major leagues in batting average (.284), is second in home runs and entertains a beleagured Rockies? pitching staff whose starters have a road ERA of 5.79 and whose relievers are yielding over six runs per nine innings. We can?t think of a single scenario in which we?d think about backing the sad sack Rockies. An Orioles? sweep is certainly a solid possibility. BEST BET: Orioles in all games.
L.A. Dodgers at Chicago W. Sox (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
The Dodgers bring a pretty bad pitching staff (starters have a road 5.56 ERA, relievers have a 5.38 ERA) into Chicago where the White Sox are an overwhelming 21-6 (+$1345) and 15-4 (+$940) against righties. LA has been ineffective against righanders on the road (7-11, -$350), but awfully tough on lefties (7-1, +$620 averaging 7.1 runs per game in those contests). BEST BET: White Sox when righty meets righty/ Dodgers vs. lefthanders.
Washington at Texas (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
Here?s an interesting test for the upstart Nationals (+$1495). Washington?s starters allow 2.25 more RPG on the road than in RFK and they?ll be going up against one of the best offenses in either league. In addition, the Rangers are coming home after a disastrous road trip.They?re sure to be in an angry mood against a team that is traveling from a three-game set in Los Angeles vs. the Angels after a 13-game home stand. BEST BET: Rangers in all games.
Houston at Kansas City (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
Sure, the Astros have a much better pitching staff than the Royals but, they play so poorly on the road (7-23, -$1435) that it makes more sense to look to the home team first, especially in light of the way they?ve been playing lately. But finding a situation in which the Royals are attractive is like honing in on that proverbial haystack. BEST BET: None.
San Diego at Minnesota (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
The Padres? offense has been in a coma for the last two weeks. They?ve averaged 2.4 runs per game over the last ten games, all of which were played in San Diego. So, why should we assume that their hitters will wake up and start tearing the cover off the ball on the road? The Twins? staff is doing a fine job in the Metrodome (starters? ERA is 3.85, relievers? ERA is an excellent 2.57) and will add to the Padres? woes. BEST BET: Twins in all games.
Florida at L.A. Angels (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
The Marlins have been slumping (4-6, -$435 last 10 days) and might not be the greatest of investments in this series, but there is at least one situation that we have to jump on. The Angels average 1.3 RPG or 26% less runs vs. southpaws than against righties and the red hot Dontrelle Willis (3-1 on the road with a 3.24 ERA) is scheduled to pitch in California. So let?s jump all over the early frontrunner in the NL Cy Young race. The Marlins have played poorly on the road against righties (6-12, -$915) that we?ll have to back the Angels in that scenario even if Bartolo Colon, as anticipated, misses this series. BEST BET: Willis/Angels righthanders vs. all but Willis.
N.Y. Mets at Seattle (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
With the Mariners so ineffective when the opposition sends a southpaw to the mound (5-12, -$775 averaging 2.9 runs per game), the Mets would do well to have the hot Tom Glavine (five earned runs allowed in 20.2 innings over his last three starts) or the iffy Kaz Ishii ready to go at Safeco. We wouldn?t recommend any huge plays on the New Yorkers, however, as their 10-16 (-$485) road record indicates. For the Mariners, a play on Aaron Sele (2.84 ERA last two starts) makes the most sense. BEST BET:Lefthanders vs. the Mariners/Sele vs. New York righthanders.
Philadelphia at Oakland (3) 17th, 18th, 19th
The Athletics have won eight of their last ten home games and eight of their last 13 games, easily their most productive stretch of the year while, the Phillies have won six straight and 12 of their last 13 games so something?s got to give. The A?s score 42% more runs vs. southpaws than righties, but the lone Phillies? portsider, Randy Wolf, is not scheduled to make an appearance in this series. Oakland is a brutal 15-29 (-$1415) vs. righties averaging 3.8 RPG, so we?ll load up against them when Jon Leiber, Corey Lidle or Brett Myers head to the hill. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Athletics.
