BEGINNING THURSDAY JULY 7
Boston at Baltimore (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Red Sox have surged into first place in the AL East thanks to an explosion by the league?s most potent offense (.285 team BA, averaging 5.6 runs per game). But they?ve faltered a bit on a recent road trip, exposing the ongoing weakness of their mound corps (4.84 team ERA, 3rd worst in the AL). However, the Orioles have faded badly in the face of multiple injuries (2-8, -$630 last 10 days) so caution is advised. We?ll limit ourselves to a play on Daniel Cabrera, who is coming off some solid performances (2.13 ERA last 2 starts) and who does his best work at Camden Yards. BEST BET: Cabrera.
Cleveland at N.Y. Yankees (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Yankees have been hemmoraging their backers? money in 2005 (-$2600 so far) so it?s impossible to justify laying fat prices vs. a Cleveland team that has climbed back into wildcard contention. The Indians have been it their very best in night games vs. righthanders (17-6, +$1450) and it looks like they?ll have two of their top hurlers (Lee 3.68 ERA, Millwood 3.18) on the hill for the games played Thursday & Friday night. Righthanders are likely to be on the mound for New York in those games, so the setup couldn?t be better. BEST BET: Indians vs. righthanders at night.
Detroit at Tampa Bay (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Tigers are well within striking distance of .500, but they?ve not looked sharp in recent days (2-8, -$585 last 10) and they could be vulnerable here at Tropicana Field. For all their shortcomings, the Devil Rays have posted a 13-8 record vs. righties in home night games (+$630 with 5.3 runs per game) while Detroit has not performed well vs. righties in all settings (26-35, -$915). We might even catch some nice underdog prices on the home team along the way. BEST BET: Devil Rays when righty meets righty in night games.
Minnesota at Kansas City (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Royals get our vote for the weakest team in baseball, and lately they?ve been at their worst (1-8, -$600 last 10 days). They?ve gotten hammered by the Twins (1-7, -$500 in head to head play). We?re not thrilled with laying big prices on the Twins as a visitor, so we?ll only use them if the price is reasonable. BEST BET: Twins at -125 or less.
Seattle at L.A. Angels (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Angels have dominated the hapless Mariners in 2005 (4-1, +$305) and they?ve been exhibiting top form (8-2, +$575 last 10 days with 5.9 runs per game and a 3.30 ERA among starters). Seattle is heading in the opposite direction (2-8, -$660 with 3.7 RPG and an 7.86 ERA among starters) so it?s hard to see any edge for the visitor. The Angels are 20-7 vs. righties at home (+$880) so we?ll play this series. BEST BET: Angels vs. righthanders.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 8
N.Y. Mets at Pittsburgh (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Mets and Pirates are close statistically (Bucs .256 team BA, 4.28 ERA . . Mets .258 BA, 4.17 ERA), but NY has played poorly on the road (15-23, -$635) while Pittsburgh checks in with a 11-7 (+$485) record vs. righties in night games at PNC Park. Glavine is likely to miss this series, so the home team figures to see plenty of righties this weekend. BEST BET: Pirates vs. righthanders in night games.
Washington at Philadelphia (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
After a brief surge, the Phillies have faded (2-8, -$735 last 10 days) and with Randy Wolf in the DL they lack the lefthanders that might give the red hot Nationals some trouble. Washington is now 33-18 (+$2075) vs. righthanders, including a 16-11 (+$1210) record as a visitor. The Phillies are only 26-31 (-$845) vs. righties so far in 2005 and that?s all Washington has. BEST BET: Nationals in all games.
Chicago Cubs at Florida (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Cubs hope to make a move in the NL central now that Prior & Wood are back from the DL. But they tend to be somewhat overpriced, so caution is advised. The Marlins present similar problems, as they struggle to remain competitive in the NL East despite an outstanding rotation (3.83 ERA). It?s hard to work up much enthusiasm for either side, so we?ll steer clear for now. BEST BET: None.
Milwaukee at Atlanta (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Brewers are close to .500 thanks to the emergence of their young pitching staff (3.91 team ERA, 4th best in the NL) and they?ll be sending some good ones against the Braves. But the Braves refuse to die, hanging tough despite the loss of Hudson, Hampton and Thomson to the DL. They?ve clobbered visitors to Turner Field (24-12, +$830 at home) and we like their chances at reasonable prices against a Milwaukee team that is not at it?s best outside of Miller Park (15-27, -$855 as visitors). BEST BET: Braves at -130 or less.
L.A. Dodgers at Houston (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
After a miserable first half in 2004, the Astros went on a tear in the 2nd half and narrowly missed out on a trip to the World Series. They look to be on the move again (7-3, +$405 last 10 days with 6.5 RPG and a 2.54 ERA among starters). The Dodgers look dead in the water, especially with Eric Gagne expected to miss the rest of the season. Clemens (1.41 ERA) and Oswalt (2.54) should both see action, and are tempting at any price. BEST BET: Clemens/Oswalt.
San Diego at Colorado (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Padres are 4-1 (+$285) vs. the anemic Rockies, but the way the San Diego plays on the road (18-21, -$205) it?s hard to feel much confidence in them. The Rockies are profitable here at Coors Field (+$415) and with Eaton on the DL and Peavy not in line to pitch, it appears they?ll be opportunities to take the home team vs. the lesser San Diego starters. BEST BET: Rockies in all games.
Cincinnati at Arizona (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
Neither team looks very sharp heading into the All-Star break, but whatever Arizona?s shortcomings, nothing is as ugly as Cincinnati?s pathetic road record (7-28, -$1790). We can?t see laying big prices on the home team, but they should easily take at least 2 out of 3 in this series. So we?ll sit back unless the price is acceptable. BEST BET: Diamondbacks at -140 or less.
St. Louis at San Francisco (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Giants starting rotation is in disarray (5.11 team ERA, 3rd worst in the league), they can?t hit righthanders (19-33, -$1390) and as a consequence they?ve got the 2nd worst record in the league. The Cardinals lead the NL in pitching (3.54 team ERA) and are tied for first in team BA (.274). They are a top road team (24-14, +$585) so they should dominate the weekend series here at SBC Park. BEST BET: Cardinals in all games.
Oakland at Chicago W. Sox (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
What looked like a meaningless series for the Athletics a few weeks ago now takes on great significance, thanks to Oakland sensational recent stretch, They?ve won 9 of their last 10 (+$830) and their starters over that period have posted a miniscule 1.70 ERA. They?ll need to pick up the pace on the road (only 13-25, -$1300 as visitors) and Chicago might be a tough town to accomplish anything, given the White Sox? 54-25 (+$2410) record so far. We?ll sit back for now and come back for a closer look on game day. BEST BET: None.
Toronto at Texas (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Rangers will have a tough time overtaking the Angels in the AL West given the sorry state of their pitching (4.64 ERA, 4th worst in the league). And with Kenny Rogers slated to miss 20 games, they?ll be hard pressed to stay competitive for the wildcard. And with a 4-12 (-$925) record vs. lefties, Gustavo Chacin (+$260, 3.59 ERA) looks like an outstanding value.BEST BET: Chacin.
Boston at Baltimore (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Red Sox have surged into first place in the AL East thanks to an explosion by the league?s most potent offense (.285 team BA, averaging 5.6 runs per game). But they?ve faltered a bit on a recent road trip, exposing the ongoing weakness of their mound corps (4.84 team ERA, 3rd worst in the AL). However, the Orioles have faded badly in the face of multiple injuries (2-8, -$630 last 10 days) so caution is advised. We?ll limit ourselves to a play on Daniel Cabrera, who is coming off some solid performances (2.13 ERA last 2 starts) and who does his best work at Camden Yards. BEST BET: Cabrera.
Cleveland at N.Y. Yankees (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Yankees have been hemmoraging their backers? money in 2005 (-$2600 so far) so it?s impossible to justify laying fat prices vs. a Cleveland team that has climbed back into wildcard contention. The Indians have been it their very best in night games vs. righthanders (17-6, +$1450) and it looks like they?ll have two of their top hurlers (Lee 3.68 ERA, Millwood 3.18) on the hill for the games played Thursday & Friday night. Righthanders are likely to be on the mound for New York in those games, so the setup couldn?t be better. BEST BET: Indians vs. righthanders at night.
Detroit at Tampa Bay (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Tigers are well within striking distance of .500, but they?ve not looked sharp in recent days (2-8, -$585 last 10) and they could be vulnerable here at Tropicana Field. For all their shortcomings, the Devil Rays have posted a 13-8 record vs. righties in home night games (+$630 with 5.3 runs per game) while Detroit has not performed well vs. righties in all settings (26-35, -$915). We might even catch some nice underdog prices on the home team along the way. BEST BET: Devil Rays when righty meets righty in night games.
Minnesota at Kansas City (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Royals get our vote for the weakest team in baseball, and lately they?ve been at their worst (1-8, -$600 last 10 days). They?ve gotten hammered by the Twins (1-7, -$500 in head to head play). We?re not thrilled with laying big prices on the Twins as a visitor, so we?ll only use them if the price is reasonable. BEST BET: Twins at -125 or less.
Seattle at L.A. Angels (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Angels have dominated the hapless Mariners in 2005 (4-1, +$305) and they?ve been exhibiting top form (8-2, +$575 last 10 days with 5.9 runs per game and a 3.30 ERA among starters). Seattle is heading in the opposite direction (2-8, -$660 with 3.7 RPG and an 7.86 ERA among starters) so it?s hard to see any edge for the visitor. The Angels are 20-7 vs. righties at home (+$880) so we?ll play this series. BEST BET: Angels vs. righthanders.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 8
N.Y. Mets at Pittsburgh (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Mets and Pirates are close statistically (Bucs .256 team BA, 4.28 ERA . . Mets .258 BA, 4.17 ERA), but NY has played poorly on the road (15-23, -$635) while Pittsburgh checks in with a 11-7 (+$485) record vs. righties in night games at PNC Park. Glavine is likely to miss this series, so the home team figures to see plenty of righties this weekend. BEST BET: Pirates vs. righthanders in night games.
Washington at Philadelphia (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
After a brief surge, the Phillies have faded (2-8, -$735 last 10 days) and with Randy Wolf in the DL they lack the lefthanders that might give the red hot Nationals some trouble. Washington is now 33-18 (+$2075) vs. righthanders, including a 16-11 (+$1210) record as a visitor. The Phillies are only 26-31 (-$845) vs. righties so far in 2005 and that?s all Washington has. BEST BET: Nationals in all games.
Chicago Cubs at Florida (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Cubs hope to make a move in the NL central now that Prior & Wood are back from the DL. But they tend to be somewhat overpriced, so caution is advised. The Marlins present similar problems, as they struggle to remain competitive in the NL East despite an outstanding rotation (3.83 ERA). It?s hard to work up much enthusiasm for either side, so we?ll steer clear for now. BEST BET: None.
Milwaukee at Atlanta (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Brewers are close to .500 thanks to the emergence of their young pitching staff (3.91 team ERA, 4th best in the NL) and they?ll be sending some good ones against the Braves. But the Braves refuse to die, hanging tough despite the loss of Hudson, Hampton and Thomson to the DL. They?ve clobbered visitors to Turner Field (24-12, +$830 at home) and we like their chances at reasonable prices against a Milwaukee team that is not at it?s best outside of Miller Park (15-27, -$855 as visitors). BEST BET: Braves at -130 or less.
L.A. Dodgers at Houston (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
After a miserable first half in 2004, the Astros went on a tear in the 2nd half and narrowly missed out on a trip to the World Series. They look to be on the move again (7-3, +$405 last 10 days with 6.5 RPG and a 2.54 ERA among starters). The Dodgers look dead in the water, especially with Eric Gagne expected to miss the rest of the season. Clemens (1.41 ERA) and Oswalt (2.54) should both see action, and are tempting at any price. BEST BET: Clemens/Oswalt.
San Diego at Colorado (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Padres are 4-1 (+$285) vs. the anemic Rockies, but the way the San Diego plays on the road (18-21, -$205) it?s hard to feel much confidence in them. The Rockies are profitable here at Coors Field (+$415) and with Eaton on the DL and Peavy not in line to pitch, it appears they?ll be opportunities to take the home team vs. the lesser San Diego starters. BEST BET: Rockies in all games.
Cincinnati at Arizona (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
Neither team looks very sharp heading into the All-Star break, but whatever Arizona?s shortcomings, nothing is as ugly as Cincinnati?s pathetic road record (7-28, -$1790). We can?t see laying big prices on the home team, but they should easily take at least 2 out of 3 in this series. So we?ll sit back unless the price is acceptable. BEST BET: Diamondbacks at -140 or less.
St. Louis at San Francisco (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Giants starting rotation is in disarray (5.11 team ERA, 3rd worst in the league), they can?t hit righthanders (19-33, -$1390) and as a consequence they?ve got the 2nd worst record in the league. The Cardinals lead the NL in pitching (3.54 team ERA) and are tied for first in team BA (.274). They are a top road team (24-14, +$585) so they should dominate the weekend series here at SBC Park. BEST BET: Cardinals in all games.
Oakland at Chicago W. Sox (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
What looked like a meaningless series for the Athletics a few weeks ago now takes on great significance, thanks to Oakland sensational recent stretch, They?ve won 9 of their last 10 (+$830) and their starters over that period have posted a miniscule 1.70 ERA. They?ll need to pick up the pace on the road (only 13-25, -$1300 as visitors) and Chicago might be a tough town to accomplish anything, given the White Sox? 54-25 (+$2410) record so far. We?ll sit back for now and come back for a closer look on game day. BEST BET: None.
Toronto at Texas (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Rangers will have a tough time overtaking the Angels in the AL West given the sorry state of their pitching (4.64 ERA, 4th worst in the league). And with Kenny Rogers slated to miss 20 games, they?ll be hard pressed to stay competitive for the wildcard. And with a 4-12 (-$925) record vs. lefties, Gustavo Chacin (+$260, 3.59 ERA) looks like an outstanding value.BEST BET: Chacin.
