BEGINNING THURSDAY JULY 14
Washington at Milwaukee (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The Nats starterss are coming off a solid week (2.86 ERA last 10 days) but most of that success came at the home run-proof confines of RFK. Things can change in Miller Park. John Patterson has generally struggled on the road (7.20 ERA at night). In his July 9 outing at Philadelphia, Patterson recorded 8 K and 13 fly balls for 21 outs in 7 innings. Zero groundball outs! Not good for pitching in Miller Park. Young Brewers southpaw Chris Capuano (+$955) is virtually impossible to steal on (1 SB on 9 tries, 116.1 IP). That can slow down the small-ball visitor. BEST BET: Capuano/Brewers vs. Patterson.
Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
Pittsburgh?s Kip Wells recently decided to switch sides of the rubber, from 3rd to 1st. The immediate result was improved control, better mechanics, and a Pirate win. The Cubs need help, but the return of the Prior/Wood combo will be a relief to everyone in Wrigley. Carlos Zambrano can go back to being the best #3 pitcher in baseball and hook up against fewer opposing aces. His .176 BA Against at Wrigley is just insane, belying his losing first half (-$360). BEST BET: K. Wells & C. Zambrano unless they oppose each other.
Florida at Philadelphia (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
Cory Lidle is the only Philly starter in the black for the season (+$330). His ERA has dropped in five starts from 4.46 to 3.65, coinciding with weaker opponents. Fortunately Florida ranks 23rd in the majors in scoring. CBP punishes pitchers as much as it helps hitters and should take its toll on all the Marlins pitchers (except Dontrelle who is 3-0 0.82 ERA vs. the Phils in ?05), especially those who haven?t had the displeasure of pitching there before. BEST BET: Lidle/Phillies in all other games except vs. Willis
Atlanta at N.Y. Mets (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The Braves have been playing well (+$385 in last 10 days, 5.2 runs per game, 353 ERA). The Mets are inconsistent. Victor Zambrano (3.85 ERA) hasn?t allowed more than 3 runs in any of his last 12 starts and he should have more than 3 wins in that span. He keeps the ball in the park (only 1 HR at Shea on the year and only 1 HR overall since June 1). Let?s embrace Tim Hudson?s return from the DL for Atlanta. He has a shot to replicate his best outing of the year (8.0IP 4H 0ER), which came against the Mets in this ballpark. BEST BET: V. Zambrano & Hudson unless they face each other.
Arizona at San Diego (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
Claudio Vargas sports a gaudy 4.97 ERA as a D?Back starter. It still is hard to ignore Vargas? profit margin (+$525) and knowing he hasn?t taken a loss in 6 straight starts. He will be helped by Petco?s monstrous outfield and its ability to keep fly balls in the yard. The Padres are having some offensive struggles (.262 team BA) and last Saturday night they were the losers in the first ever 1-0 game in the 12-year history of Coors Field. But Tim Stauffer enters from 2 straight positive outings (3.55 ERA in those games) and has only allowed more than 4 runs once in his 11-start major league career. BEST BET: Stauffer & Vargas unless they oppose each other.
San Francisco at L.A. Dodgers (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The Giants have displayed some improved offense (.272 overall team BA, best in the league) but the 5.50 ERA among starters over that time means it?s still a cause for concern. Jason Schmidt has recently shown flashes of his tremendous ability. He seems to be getting healthy and is starting to pitch off of his fastball which he needs to do to succeed. Before this past weekend he had allowed just 11earned runs over his previous five starts. Trade rumors swirling around him may provide extra motivation. Use him at what should be a reasonable road price vs. the injury-riddled Dodgers. BEST BETS: Schmidt.
Chicago W. Sox at Cleveland (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The ChiSox continue to win and make money, thanks to the best pitching staff in the AL (3.62 ERA). The Tribe was on a roll before venturing into Yankee Stadium, where they dropped 23 out of 4 to New York. Indian hurlers will have a tough go of it against an opponent that crushes righties (+$1565), so only the lefties (Lee and Sabathia) should be considered. Mark Buehrle (+$470, 2.58 ERA) is still a good value on the road despite his recent setbacks. BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. righthanders.
Kansas City at Detroit (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The anemic Royals (30-57, -$1200 in 2005) have posted a 6.48 ERA over the last 10 days while the Tigers have pitched to a 3.97 ERA in the same span. Jeremy Bonderman is +$665 in night starts this year, and continues to emerge as one of the best young pitchers in the game. We?re all over him as he has stifled the Royals twice already this year (2 earned runs in 15 innings pitched). The Royals also struggle against lefthanders on the road (-$265). BEST BET: Bonderman/Maroth/ Robertson.
N.Y. Yankees at Boston (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The Yanks need these games and the 10-day stats say they are in a good spot (+$340). Chein Ming Wang has looked consistently sharp (3.89 ERA). His only two bad outings have both come against the hapless Devil Rays. The Yanks are hoping they don?t have to face Tim Wakefield, who has been looking sharp since his personal catcher Doug Mirabelli returned from the DL. BEST BET: Wang & Wakefield unless they meet.
Tampa at Toronto (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The awful D-Rays have lost -$765 in 10 days. Sweet Lou wants out, they have zero pitching (5.87 ERA) and only averaged 3.2 runs per game. It makes it appear that they can only win fluky games. The Jays on the other hand have been getting great hitting lately (7.4 runs per game last 10 days). The loss of Halladay will hurt, but Gustavo Chacin has been terrific (3.57) and Ted Lilly (+$600 at home) looks like he might be coming around at the right time. He has allowed just 7 earned in his last 31 innings pitched, striking out an impressive 26 batters over that period. BEST BET: Lilly/Chacin.
Anaheim at Minnesota (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The Halos look to feast on the Twins? righthanders as they have done all year (+$1020). The Twins staff is slightly banged up and could be in trouble against the Angels? sluggers. The team has been far less effective in the Metrodome than in years past, averaging only 4.4 runs per game vs. righthanders in the hitter friendly home field. Colon has looked very sharp so far (+$185, 3.42 ERA) and Byrd has emerged as the staffs most profitable hurler (+$655, 3.74 ERA). Both are likely to see action this weekend. BEST BET: Colon/Byrd.
Baltimore at Seattle (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The O?s pitching has finally imploded (5.69 ERA among starters last 10 days) and despite a good showing vs. the Red Sox just before the All-Star break, this looks like the perfect opportunity to start making money against them . But the only Seattle pitcher we care about is crafty veteran Jaime Moyer (+$510 overall, +$730 home). The O?s struggle against lefthanders (-$260 on the year) and Moyer has only one bad start since May 25th. BEST BET: Moyer.
Texas at Oakland (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The A?s continue to play winning baseball (6-3 +$400 in the last 10 days) but Texas is putting up 6.1 runs per game over that 10-day span, so caution is advised, especially when the A?s send their righthanders to the hill. Oakland?s Barry Zito has been great lately,(1.80 ERA last two starts) allowing more than 3 earned runs only once since May 22 (limiting opponents to a .223 BAA). Combine his recent success with the Texas struggles vs. lefthanders (5-13, -$940) and you have to like Zito?s chances. BEST BET: Zito
Washington at Milwaukee (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The Nats starterss are coming off a solid week (2.86 ERA last 10 days) but most of that success came at the home run-proof confines of RFK. Things can change in Miller Park. John Patterson has generally struggled on the road (7.20 ERA at night). In his July 9 outing at Philadelphia, Patterson recorded 8 K and 13 fly balls for 21 outs in 7 innings. Zero groundball outs! Not good for pitching in Miller Park. Young Brewers southpaw Chris Capuano (+$955) is virtually impossible to steal on (1 SB on 9 tries, 116.1 IP). That can slow down the small-ball visitor. BEST BET: Capuano/Brewers vs. Patterson.
Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
Pittsburgh?s Kip Wells recently decided to switch sides of the rubber, from 3rd to 1st. The immediate result was improved control, better mechanics, and a Pirate win. The Cubs need help, but the return of the Prior/Wood combo will be a relief to everyone in Wrigley. Carlos Zambrano can go back to being the best #3 pitcher in baseball and hook up against fewer opposing aces. His .176 BA Against at Wrigley is just insane, belying his losing first half (-$360). BEST BET: K. Wells & C. Zambrano unless they oppose each other.
Florida at Philadelphia (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
Cory Lidle is the only Philly starter in the black for the season (+$330). His ERA has dropped in five starts from 4.46 to 3.65, coinciding with weaker opponents. Fortunately Florida ranks 23rd in the majors in scoring. CBP punishes pitchers as much as it helps hitters and should take its toll on all the Marlins pitchers (except Dontrelle who is 3-0 0.82 ERA vs. the Phils in ?05), especially those who haven?t had the displeasure of pitching there before. BEST BET: Lidle/Phillies in all other games except vs. Willis
Atlanta at N.Y. Mets (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The Braves have been playing well (+$385 in last 10 days, 5.2 runs per game, 353 ERA). The Mets are inconsistent. Victor Zambrano (3.85 ERA) hasn?t allowed more than 3 runs in any of his last 12 starts and he should have more than 3 wins in that span. He keeps the ball in the park (only 1 HR at Shea on the year and only 1 HR overall since June 1). Let?s embrace Tim Hudson?s return from the DL for Atlanta. He has a shot to replicate his best outing of the year (8.0IP 4H 0ER), which came against the Mets in this ballpark. BEST BET: V. Zambrano & Hudson unless they face each other.
Arizona at San Diego (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
Claudio Vargas sports a gaudy 4.97 ERA as a D?Back starter. It still is hard to ignore Vargas? profit margin (+$525) and knowing he hasn?t taken a loss in 6 straight starts. He will be helped by Petco?s monstrous outfield and its ability to keep fly balls in the yard. The Padres are having some offensive struggles (.262 team BA) and last Saturday night they were the losers in the first ever 1-0 game in the 12-year history of Coors Field. But Tim Stauffer enters from 2 straight positive outings (3.55 ERA in those games) and has only allowed more than 4 runs once in his 11-start major league career. BEST BET: Stauffer & Vargas unless they oppose each other.
San Francisco at L.A. Dodgers (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The Giants have displayed some improved offense (.272 overall team BA, best in the league) but the 5.50 ERA among starters over that time means it?s still a cause for concern. Jason Schmidt has recently shown flashes of his tremendous ability. He seems to be getting healthy and is starting to pitch off of his fastball which he needs to do to succeed. Before this past weekend he had allowed just 11earned runs over his previous five starts. Trade rumors swirling around him may provide extra motivation. Use him at what should be a reasonable road price vs. the injury-riddled Dodgers. BEST BETS: Schmidt.
Chicago W. Sox at Cleveland (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The ChiSox continue to win and make money, thanks to the best pitching staff in the AL (3.62 ERA). The Tribe was on a roll before venturing into Yankee Stadium, where they dropped 23 out of 4 to New York. Indian hurlers will have a tough go of it against an opponent that crushes righties (+$1565), so only the lefties (Lee and Sabathia) should be considered. Mark Buehrle (+$470, 2.58 ERA) is still a good value on the road despite his recent setbacks. BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. righthanders.
Kansas City at Detroit (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The anemic Royals (30-57, -$1200 in 2005) have posted a 6.48 ERA over the last 10 days while the Tigers have pitched to a 3.97 ERA in the same span. Jeremy Bonderman is +$665 in night starts this year, and continues to emerge as one of the best young pitchers in the game. We?re all over him as he has stifled the Royals twice already this year (2 earned runs in 15 innings pitched). The Royals also struggle against lefthanders on the road (-$265). BEST BET: Bonderman/Maroth/ Robertson.
N.Y. Yankees at Boston (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The Yanks need these games and the 10-day stats say they are in a good spot (+$340). Chein Ming Wang has looked consistently sharp (3.89 ERA). His only two bad outings have both come against the hapless Devil Rays. The Yanks are hoping they don?t have to face Tim Wakefield, who has been looking sharp since his personal catcher Doug Mirabelli returned from the DL. BEST BET: Wang & Wakefield unless they meet.
Tampa at Toronto (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The awful D-Rays have lost -$765 in 10 days. Sweet Lou wants out, they have zero pitching (5.87 ERA) and only averaged 3.2 runs per game. It makes it appear that they can only win fluky games. The Jays on the other hand have been getting great hitting lately (7.4 runs per game last 10 days). The loss of Halladay will hurt, but Gustavo Chacin has been terrific (3.57) and Ted Lilly (+$600 at home) looks like he might be coming around at the right time. He has allowed just 7 earned in his last 31 innings pitched, striking out an impressive 26 batters over that period. BEST BET: Lilly/Chacin.
Anaheim at Minnesota (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The Halos look to feast on the Twins? righthanders as they have done all year (+$1020). The Twins staff is slightly banged up and could be in trouble against the Angels? sluggers. The team has been far less effective in the Metrodome than in years past, averaging only 4.4 runs per game vs. righthanders in the hitter friendly home field. Colon has looked very sharp so far (+$185, 3.42 ERA) and Byrd has emerged as the staffs most profitable hurler (+$655, 3.74 ERA). Both are likely to see action this weekend. BEST BET: Colon/Byrd.
Baltimore at Seattle (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The O?s pitching has finally imploded (5.69 ERA among starters last 10 days) and despite a good showing vs. the Red Sox just before the All-Star break, this looks like the perfect opportunity to start making money against them . But the only Seattle pitcher we care about is crafty veteran Jaime Moyer (+$510 overall, +$730 home). The O?s struggle against lefthanders (-$260 on the year) and Moyer has only one bad start since May 25th. BEST BET: Moyer.
Texas at Oakland (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The A?s continue to play winning baseball (6-3 +$400 in the last 10 days) but Texas is putting up 6.1 runs per game over that 10-day span, so caution is advised, especially when the A?s send their righthanders to the hill. Oakland?s Barry Zito has been great lately,(1.80 ERA last two starts) allowing more than 3 earned runs only once since May 22 (limiting opponents to a .223 BAA). Combine his recent success with the Texas struggles vs. lefthanders (5-13, -$940) and you have to like Zito?s chances. BEST BET: Zito
