i agree with him on the giants & the cards.....don't think the panthers will be much of a surprise if they make the playoffs.
Clark Judge
CBS Sportsline.com
Senior Writer
The roll call, please:
Arizona Cardinals:
OK, so they haven't been to the playoffs since 1998 and have been to the playoffs only once in a non-strike year since the completion of the 1975 season. They're due. No, they're overdue. Coach Dennis Green made several offseason moves that should benefit the club, including the draft of Cal running back J.J. Arrington and the free-agent signing of quarterback Kurt Warner. But that's just the beginning.
First, Green has a history of success, reaching the playoffs eight of his 10 years in Minnesota; second, the Cardinals are in the league's weakest division; third, they play the second easiest schedule -- with opponents 114-142 a year ago. Sure, they're horrible on the road, losing 20 of their last 21 there, but check out this year's schedule: Only two of their opponents had winning records a year ago.
The key here is Warner and an offense that was so bad in 2004 Green played musical chairs at quarterback, switching starters three times in four games. The Cards were 22nd in rushing, 24th in passing and 26th in scoring. That won't cut it. A running game will help ... if Arrington produces.
A mistake-free quarterback will help, too ... if Warner plays as he did the first seven games last year. But let's be honest: The reason to like the Cards is the rest of the division. It's dead-flat ordinary, which means 9-7 can win this thing. In fact, it did a year ago. Hey, if Arizona just beat the 49ers a year ago it would have been 8-8, and last time I checked, 8-8 made the NFC playoffs.
Carolina Panthers:
They're one season removed from the Super Bowl, so they're not exactly emerging out of nowhere. But the Panthers lost seven of their first eight in 2004 and finished with their fourth losing season in five years.
That changes this year for all the right reasons: 1) They made strong free-agent moves, including the signings of cornerback Ken Lucas and offensive lineman Mike Wahle; 2) They hit it big in the draft, with the addition of safety Thomas Davis; 3) Wide receiver Steve Smith is back after missing all but one game and; 4) so is one of their top running backs, DeShaun Foster.
OK, so the jury's out on Stephen Davis, recovering from microfracture surgery on his right knee. The Panthers have Nick Goings and rookie Eric Shelton as insurance. More than that, they have a proven, steady hand in quarterback in Jake Delhomme, who over the last 10 games last year had 22 touchdown passes, five interceptions and five passer ratings of 106.8 or better.
Most important, they have one of the league's most opportune defenses, a unit that last year led the league with 38 takeaways -- including a league-high 26 interceptions -- and one of the game's most underrated head coaches in John Fox. What killed Carolina a year ago were the close calls they won in 2003. They were 0-4 in games decided by three or fewer points, where the year before they were 6-1. The pendulum swings back this season.
Kansas City Chiefs:
Yeah, the Chiefs were 7-9 last year, so they weren't that far removed from the playoffs. Well, as a matter of fact, yes, they were. They finished five games behind division winner San Diego and three games behind wild-card entries Denver and the New York Jets. Last year's biggest disappointment wasn't Carolina, Tampa Bay or Tennessee. It was the Chiefs, who lost eight of their first 11 and hemorrhaged so badly on defense that coordinator Gunther Cunningham started calling games from a foxhole.
The Chiefs remind me a lot of those Air Coryell teams that crashed and burned in the mid-1980s: Lots of offense and too little defense. But the club made a raft of offseason moves -- including the trading for cornerback Patrick Surtain, signing free agent linebacker Kendrell Bell and drafting linebacker Derrick Johnson -- that should improve the league's 31st-ranked defense. And defense is what it's all about in Kansas City, where the Chiefs annually engage in tennis matches with their opponents.
What Kansas City needs to improve there is its ability to force turnovers. The Chiefs produced 37 in 2003 when they won the division title but slumped to 21 a year ago. There's an urgency in Kansas City, not only because coach Dick Vermeil enters what is expected to be his last season, but because the window of opportunity is beginning to close for some of the team's aging stars. The time is right for the Chiefs to make a move.
New York Giants:
I don't know that Eli Manning's play ever approaches brother Peyton's, but I know I liked what I saw down the stretch a year ago. Manning threw for five touchdowns and three interceptions over his last three games -- a carbon copy of his brother in 1998 -- and was lights-out in a season-ending victory over Dallas. Critics point to his 1-6 record as a starter. Yeah? Well, his brother was 3-13 his first season and 13-3 the next. The Giants aren't a 13-3 team waiting to happen, but I like them over the Cowboys here because of the improvement Manning should make and because I trust their veteran defense more than I trust the Cowboys' young and restless.
Yes, the team's offensive line was porous last year, but the addition of free agent Kareem McKenzie and the return of a healthy Rich Seubert should make a difference. Seubert hasn't played since Oct. 19, 2003, when he fractured his right leg in three places. Both linemen are factors in the continued development of Manning and the play of running back Tiki Barber, who produced nine 100-yard games, 2,096 yards in offense and 15 touchdowns.
The Giants score points for their signing of wide receiver Plaxico Burress, but saved their biggest offseason move for defense, stealing free-agent linebacker Antonio Pierce from Washington where he led the club in tackles. The schedule is tough -- with four trips to the West Coast -- but if they can jump to another 5-2 start, the Giants look forward to a finish where four of their last five opponents were 24-40 a year ago.
Detroit Lions:
Welcome to another wide-open division, where Minnesota is the favorite but where nobody, and I mean nobody, is in charge. Chicago linebacker Brian Urlacher proclaimed the Bears as "the team to beat" in the NFC North, but he's counting on the Packers and Vikings to falter and ignoring Detroit. That's a mistake.
The Lions are poised to make a run at their first winning season since 2000, with quarterback Joey Harrington the question mark. Harrington was supposed to emerge as a star last year, but it didn't happen. Instead, there were more questions than answers, and now the Lions have Garcia as a safety net if Harrington self destructs. I don't think it happens, largely because he's surrounded by so much talent he doesn't have to be this year's Drew Brees.
All he must do is demonstrate some consistency, and he has a chance if running back Kevin Jones is around the entire season. Mariucci loves to run the ball when he can, and in Jones he has a young back who ran for 100 yards in four of his last seven games. That not only helps Harrington minimize mistakes by taking fewer chances; it should help the league's 22nd-ranked defense stay off the field. It was there longer than everyone but Oakland a year ago and it showed down the stretch -- with the Lions losing eight of their last 10.
Hey, look at it this way: A year ago the Lions were wondering if they could win another road game, and they won their first three. Now, they must straighten out their quarterback. It happened in San Diego. Why can't it happen here?
Clark Judge
CBS Sportsline.com
Senior Writer
The roll call, please:
Arizona Cardinals:
OK, so they haven't been to the playoffs since 1998 and have been to the playoffs only once in a non-strike year since the completion of the 1975 season. They're due. No, they're overdue. Coach Dennis Green made several offseason moves that should benefit the club, including the draft of Cal running back J.J. Arrington and the free-agent signing of quarterback Kurt Warner. But that's just the beginning.
First, Green has a history of success, reaching the playoffs eight of his 10 years in Minnesota; second, the Cardinals are in the league's weakest division; third, they play the second easiest schedule -- with opponents 114-142 a year ago. Sure, they're horrible on the road, losing 20 of their last 21 there, but check out this year's schedule: Only two of their opponents had winning records a year ago.
The key here is Warner and an offense that was so bad in 2004 Green played musical chairs at quarterback, switching starters three times in four games. The Cards were 22nd in rushing, 24th in passing and 26th in scoring. That won't cut it. A running game will help ... if Arrington produces.
A mistake-free quarterback will help, too ... if Warner plays as he did the first seven games last year. But let's be honest: The reason to like the Cards is the rest of the division. It's dead-flat ordinary, which means 9-7 can win this thing. In fact, it did a year ago. Hey, if Arizona just beat the 49ers a year ago it would have been 8-8, and last time I checked, 8-8 made the NFC playoffs.
Carolina Panthers:
They're one season removed from the Super Bowl, so they're not exactly emerging out of nowhere. But the Panthers lost seven of their first eight in 2004 and finished with their fourth losing season in five years.
That changes this year for all the right reasons: 1) They made strong free-agent moves, including the signings of cornerback Ken Lucas and offensive lineman Mike Wahle; 2) They hit it big in the draft, with the addition of safety Thomas Davis; 3) Wide receiver Steve Smith is back after missing all but one game and; 4) so is one of their top running backs, DeShaun Foster.
OK, so the jury's out on Stephen Davis, recovering from microfracture surgery on his right knee. The Panthers have Nick Goings and rookie Eric Shelton as insurance. More than that, they have a proven, steady hand in quarterback in Jake Delhomme, who over the last 10 games last year had 22 touchdown passes, five interceptions and five passer ratings of 106.8 or better.
Most important, they have one of the league's most opportune defenses, a unit that last year led the league with 38 takeaways -- including a league-high 26 interceptions -- and one of the game's most underrated head coaches in John Fox. What killed Carolina a year ago were the close calls they won in 2003. They were 0-4 in games decided by three or fewer points, where the year before they were 6-1. The pendulum swings back this season.
Kansas City Chiefs:
Yeah, the Chiefs were 7-9 last year, so they weren't that far removed from the playoffs. Well, as a matter of fact, yes, they were. They finished five games behind division winner San Diego and three games behind wild-card entries Denver and the New York Jets. Last year's biggest disappointment wasn't Carolina, Tampa Bay or Tennessee. It was the Chiefs, who lost eight of their first 11 and hemorrhaged so badly on defense that coordinator Gunther Cunningham started calling games from a foxhole.
The Chiefs remind me a lot of those Air Coryell teams that crashed and burned in the mid-1980s: Lots of offense and too little defense. But the club made a raft of offseason moves -- including the trading for cornerback Patrick Surtain, signing free agent linebacker Kendrell Bell and drafting linebacker Derrick Johnson -- that should improve the league's 31st-ranked defense. And defense is what it's all about in Kansas City, where the Chiefs annually engage in tennis matches with their opponents.
What Kansas City needs to improve there is its ability to force turnovers. The Chiefs produced 37 in 2003 when they won the division title but slumped to 21 a year ago. There's an urgency in Kansas City, not only because coach Dick Vermeil enters what is expected to be his last season, but because the window of opportunity is beginning to close for some of the team's aging stars. The time is right for the Chiefs to make a move.
New York Giants:
I don't know that Eli Manning's play ever approaches brother Peyton's, but I know I liked what I saw down the stretch a year ago. Manning threw for five touchdowns and three interceptions over his last three games -- a carbon copy of his brother in 1998 -- and was lights-out in a season-ending victory over Dallas. Critics point to his 1-6 record as a starter. Yeah? Well, his brother was 3-13 his first season and 13-3 the next. The Giants aren't a 13-3 team waiting to happen, but I like them over the Cowboys here because of the improvement Manning should make and because I trust their veteran defense more than I trust the Cowboys' young and restless.
Yes, the team's offensive line was porous last year, but the addition of free agent Kareem McKenzie and the return of a healthy Rich Seubert should make a difference. Seubert hasn't played since Oct. 19, 2003, when he fractured his right leg in three places. Both linemen are factors in the continued development of Manning and the play of running back Tiki Barber, who produced nine 100-yard games, 2,096 yards in offense and 15 touchdowns.
The Giants score points for their signing of wide receiver Plaxico Burress, but saved their biggest offseason move for defense, stealing free-agent linebacker Antonio Pierce from Washington where he led the club in tackles. The schedule is tough -- with four trips to the West Coast -- but if they can jump to another 5-2 start, the Giants look forward to a finish where four of their last five opponents were 24-40 a year ago.
Detroit Lions:
Welcome to another wide-open division, where Minnesota is the favorite but where nobody, and I mean nobody, is in charge. Chicago linebacker Brian Urlacher proclaimed the Bears as "the team to beat" in the NFC North, but he's counting on the Packers and Vikings to falter and ignoring Detroit. That's a mistake.
The Lions are poised to make a run at their first winning season since 2000, with quarterback Joey Harrington the question mark. Harrington was supposed to emerge as a star last year, but it didn't happen. Instead, there were more questions than answers, and now the Lions have Garcia as a safety net if Harrington self destructs. I don't think it happens, largely because he's surrounded by so much talent he doesn't have to be this year's Drew Brees.
All he must do is demonstrate some consistency, and he has a chance if running back Kevin Jones is around the entire season. Mariucci loves to run the ball when he can, and in Jones he has a young back who ran for 100 yards in four of his last seven games. That not only helps Harrington minimize mistakes by taking fewer chances; it should help the league's 22nd-ranked defense stay off the field. It was there longer than everyone but Oakland a year ago and it showed down the stretch -- with the Lions losing eight of their last 10.
Hey, look at it this way: A year ago the Lions were wondering if they could win another road game, and they won their first three. Now, they must straighten out their quarterback. It happened in San Diego. Why can't it happen here?
