YTD RECORD MLB: 138-100 (+26.70 UNITS)
Ended up 3-3 for Sunday...pretty much breaking even. Played just one game for Monday. Hopefully it's a winner:
ARIZONA +149 (WEBB VS SHEETS LISTED)
ARIZONA +149:
I guess I'll take a shot at the D'Backs in this one. It's not that they have any real edge over the Brewers in this game, but I don't see the Brewers as having near the edge that the line indicates. If you take a look at the Over/Under in this game which is set at (7.5), it sort of indicates it could be a low scoring game and it probably will be especially with the contributing "travel" factor and the "haven't faced either team this season" factor, but I'm not a big fan of playing an under when it's set that low, especially with the not-so-special bullpens. If the total was set at 9, it would have been a play maybe. However, it is a match-up where I think Arizona could win close to 50% of the time, especially if it is low scoring, so I'll roll with the nice dog price.
Ben Sheets gets the start for Milwaukee in this game and is very capable of pitching a dandy, but the problem with him is the fact that he plays for a team that has never given him much run support, this season or in past seasons. Sheets is just 5-7 this season and is just 50-60 for his career. Versus Arizona in his career, he is 2-2 in 5 starts. With this in mind, I'll point out why I think Webb might be able to match him or outpitch him in this game and maybe, just maybe it might only take a few runs to get the win in this game.
Brandon Webb, of course, is starting for Arizona and I think one reason the books set the line this high is because it looks like Webb has had bad "stuff" the last few games. He has given up a lot of runs, but when you look into the numbers, you'll see that this is not the case. Webb is a bigtime groundballer. He's the type of pitcher that is actually looking for the hitters to put the ball in play and when you look at his numbers, he's doing exactly what he wants, but sometimes everything just seems to find the "holes" and nothing you can do about that. Over his last 5 games, and that includes some bad outings, he has over a 6 to 1 groundball-flyball ratio (66 groundball outs vs 10 flyball outs). Bottom line, he still has very good stuff, but a lot of groundballs found the holes and he did surrender 5 homeruns in the past 3 games, which is what contibuted to all the runs he's given up. It's not likely he'll keep giving up the longballs, especially when you look at his recent ratio. I also think he's tops in this category in the Majors with around a 4-1 groundball/flyball ratio on the season.
Webb is also one of those pitchers that isn't affected when he pitches on the road. His lifetime ERA on the Road is almost identical to his lifetime Home ERA and actually this season, he's been better on the road. In 9 road starts, he's 5-2 with a 3.90 ERA while at home he is just 3-5 with a 4.13 ERA in 11 starts.
Also, if you look a little closer at Webb's numbers, you'll see that he has always faired a lot better facing righties than lefties mainly because of the movement of his pitches. This season, right-handed batters are hitting 45 points lower off him than lefties. Career wise, Righties are hitting just .212 off him, while lefties are hitting .275 off him. This could be very significant considering that it's almost guaranteed that 6 of Milwaukee's 9 batters will be hitting from the right side. ADVANTAGE WEBB.
Bottom line, I think Arizona could win this game, especially if Webb is his normal self. It's tough to go against a good pitcher in Sheets, but I think there's a lot of value in the dog here.
Good luck to all :thumb:
-ndnfan
Ended up 3-3 for Sunday...pretty much breaking even. Played just one game for Monday. Hopefully it's a winner:
ARIZONA +149 (WEBB VS SHEETS LISTED)
ARIZONA +149:
I guess I'll take a shot at the D'Backs in this one. It's not that they have any real edge over the Brewers in this game, but I don't see the Brewers as having near the edge that the line indicates. If you take a look at the Over/Under in this game which is set at (7.5), it sort of indicates it could be a low scoring game and it probably will be especially with the contributing "travel" factor and the "haven't faced either team this season" factor, but I'm not a big fan of playing an under when it's set that low, especially with the not-so-special bullpens. If the total was set at 9, it would have been a play maybe. However, it is a match-up where I think Arizona could win close to 50% of the time, especially if it is low scoring, so I'll roll with the nice dog price.
Ben Sheets gets the start for Milwaukee in this game and is very capable of pitching a dandy, but the problem with him is the fact that he plays for a team that has never given him much run support, this season or in past seasons. Sheets is just 5-7 this season and is just 50-60 for his career. Versus Arizona in his career, he is 2-2 in 5 starts. With this in mind, I'll point out why I think Webb might be able to match him or outpitch him in this game and maybe, just maybe it might only take a few runs to get the win in this game.
Brandon Webb, of course, is starting for Arizona and I think one reason the books set the line this high is because it looks like Webb has had bad "stuff" the last few games. He has given up a lot of runs, but when you look into the numbers, you'll see that this is not the case. Webb is a bigtime groundballer. He's the type of pitcher that is actually looking for the hitters to put the ball in play and when you look at his numbers, he's doing exactly what he wants, but sometimes everything just seems to find the "holes" and nothing you can do about that. Over his last 5 games, and that includes some bad outings, he has over a 6 to 1 groundball-flyball ratio (66 groundball outs vs 10 flyball outs). Bottom line, he still has very good stuff, but a lot of groundballs found the holes and he did surrender 5 homeruns in the past 3 games, which is what contibuted to all the runs he's given up. It's not likely he'll keep giving up the longballs, especially when you look at his recent ratio. I also think he's tops in this category in the Majors with around a 4-1 groundball/flyball ratio on the season.
Webb is also one of those pitchers that isn't affected when he pitches on the road. His lifetime ERA on the Road is almost identical to his lifetime Home ERA and actually this season, he's been better on the road. In 9 road starts, he's 5-2 with a 3.90 ERA while at home he is just 3-5 with a 4.13 ERA in 11 starts.
Also, if you look a little closer at Webb's numbers, you'll see that he has always faired a lot better facing righties than lefties mainly because of the movement of his pitches. This season, right-handed batters are hitting 45 points lower off him than lefties. Career wise, Righties are hitting just .212 off him, while lefties are hitting .275 off him. This could be very significant considering that it's almost guaranteed that 6 of Milwaukee's 9 batters will be hitting from the right side. ADVANTAGE WEBB.
Bottom line, I think Arizona could win this game, especially if Webb is his normal self. It's tough to go against a good pitcher in Sheets, but I think there's a lot of value in the dog here.
Good luck to all :thumb:
-ndnfan
