Pinnacle is offering this prop.
Will a USC player win the 2005 Heisman Trophy?
Yes +129
No -139
I think "NO" -139 is a good bet. The 2 contenders and the top 2 favorites are Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush. Both on same team. So lets say both do have superb years stat wise both will hurt each other vote wise. Maybe enough for neither to win it.
Leinart repeatedly has said he is not interested in winning another heisman. Lets take his word for it. That means USC will do their best to get 2nd string QB phenom Booty in the game. He will be the starter next year and he needs experience if USC wants to continue to dominate next year. Chow never liked putting in 2nd string QB's for some reason. But he is gone now. Booty should play and that meas less stats for Leinart. Last year the 2nd string NEVER played. But he somehow got his a$$ drafted and signed contract. With Chow gone, I feel that will not happen again. At least I hope not as a USC fan.
Another reason for Lienart not winning it is I think USC will now focus more on the run. Before it was 50/50 but now I think it will be 55/45 or more. USC now has an experienced OL and 2 experienced RB's and USC will run the ball more. Meaning less stats for Leinart. In blowouts, which USC should have plenty of, USC will stop throwing the ball.
As for Reggie Bush, this guy does it all but he has one problem. USC has too many weapons on offense. For starters, as great as Reggie is, he still has to split time with RB Lendale White. So that is not good for a heisman campaign. You need STATS! USC also has great WR's, TE, FB etc that USC didn't have last year. All were inexperienced last year. This year USC gets players back who didn't play last year and the returning starters are now experienced. Not good for Bush and his stats! So Lienart will spread the ball around on offense. As for punt/kickoff returns, I don't think many will be kicking it to Bush. Will Carroll risk Bush and injury as returner in some games?
Then you always have the risk of injury. If either player or both players get injured, even for 1-2 games, your odds of winning this bet go up dramatically. If USC loses 1 game this year, your odds of winning this bet go up dramatically.
Another angle to look at is do the people want Leinart to be a 2-time Heisman trophy winner? Some voters may not and intentionally not vote Leinart in. Or you could flip it around and argue he may get extra votes because of that. Maybe it doesn't apply. What are the odds USC has 3 heisman trophy winners in 4 years?
All in all, I think this prop has value. You also has the chance to hedge it for guaranteed dollars at the end of the year. Especially if only 1 USC player has serious chance at winning. But Leinart could be -300 odds to win it at the end. Then you just have to eat the loss.
If you want 2 good value picks to win the Heisman straight up. Take a look at Ted Ginn Jr. at 10-1 and Chris Leak at 15-1. Both could have big years. I really like Ginn's chances because he plays in the Big 10. The defenses are a tad slower because they put priority on stopping the run. Especially at the LB position. Ginn has easier time running around players. Will OSU have QB to get this super talented kid the ball? If yes, I like his chances. He even could play both sides of ball.
Leak now has Meyer but more importantly he is now an experienced QB. Should have breakout year and FL is loaded with talent that Zook recruited.
These bets are not necessarily winners but more of great value plays. I obviously didn't bet these but if I wasn't a USC fan, I would put some $$$ on all 3 wagers.
Will a USC player win the 2005 Heisman Trophy?
Yes +129
No -139
I think "NO" -139 is a good bet. The 2 contenders and the top 2 favorites are Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush. Both on same team. So lets say both do have superb years stat wise both will hurt each other vote wise. Maybe enough for neither to win it.
Leinart repeatedly has said he is not interested in winning another heisman. Lets take his word for it. That means USC will do their best to get 2nd string QB phenom Booty in the game. He will be the starter next year and he needs experience if USC wants to continue to dominate next year. Chow never liked putting in 2nd string QB's for some reason. But he is gone now. Booty should play and that meas less stats for Leinart. Last year the 2nd string NEVER played. But he somehow got his a$$ drafted and signed contract. With Chow gone, I feel that will not happen again. At least I hope not as a USC fan.
Another reason for Lienart not winning it is I think USC will now focus more on the run. Before it was 50/50 but now I think it will be 55/45 or more. USC now has an experienced OL and 2 experienced RB's and USC will run the ball more. Meaning less stats for Leinart. In blowouts, which USC should have plenty of, USC will stop throwing the ball.
As for Reggie Bush, this guy does it all but he has one problem. USC has too many weapons on offense. For starters, as great as Reggie is, he still has to split time with RB Lendale White. So that is not good for a heisman campaign. You need STATS! USC also has great WR's, TE, FB etc that USC didn't have last year. All were inexperienced last year. This year USC gets players back who didn't play last year and the returning starters are now experienced. Not good for Bush and his stats! So Lienart will spread the ball around on offense. As for punt/kickoff returns, I don't think many will be kicking it to Bush. Will Carroll risk Bush and injury as returner in some games?
Then you always have the risk of injury. If either player or both players get injured, even for 1-2 games, your odds of winning this bet go up dramatically. If USC loses 1 game this year, your odds of winning this bet go up dramatically.
Another angle to look at is do the people want Leinart to be a 2-time Heisman trophy winner? Some voters may not and intentionally not vote Leinart in. Or you could flip it around and argue he may get extra votes because of that. Maybe it doesn't apply. What are the odds USC has 3 heisman trophy winners in 4 years?
All in all, I think this prop has value. You also has the chance to hedge it for guaranteed dollars at the end of the year. Especially if only 1 USC player has serious chance at winning. But Leinart could be -300 odds to win it at the end. Then you just have to eat the loss.
If you want 2 good value picks to win the Heisman straight up. Take a look at Ted Ginn Jr. at 10-1 and Chris Leak at 15-1. Both could have big years. I really like Ginn's chances because he plays in the Big 10. The defenses are a tad slower because they put priority on stopping the run. Especially at the LB position. Ginn has easier time running around players. Will OSU have QB to get this super talented kid the ball? If yes, I like his chances. He even could play both sides of ball.
Leak now has Meyer but more importantly he is now an experienced QB. Should have breakout year and FL is loaded with talent that Zook recruited.
These bets are not necessarily winners but more of great value plays. I obviously didn't bet these but if I wasn't a USC fan, I would put some $$$ on all 3 wagers.
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