Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)
Chris DiMarco to win 20/1 e.w. available generally
A little lower price than I would have liked, but DiMarco is definitely a player to side with in this event. He has three top-6 finishes in the last four years and it is notable that on each occasion he also finished in the top-15 in the Buick Open which is always played in back-to-back weeks and that when he has not finished in the top-15 in the Buick Open, he has finished outside the top-30 in this event. He finished 12th last week and looked set for far higher until a seven on the 13th hole on Sunday. He may be a little suspect when on the leaderboard - for example, he had a commanding 9pt lead after two rounds last year, but had eight bogeys in the 3rd round to fall to just a share of the lead - but this format and desert golf normally brings the best out of DiMarco.
Tim Clark to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
Clark had been a little suspect when on the leaderboard, but was extremely impressive when winning the Scottish Open last month. It was preceded by top-15 finishes in his last three PGA Tour starts and he entered the final round of the Open Championship in the top-10, so there are no concerns about his form. The only worry is his last of course experience - he finished 71st in his sole appearance in 2002 - but he is a far better player now and has shown himself capable of contending under very different conditions. In his current form, he should contend every week.
Geoff Ogilvy to win 40/1 e.w. available generally
Ogilvy did little wrong last week other than a couple of late bogeys in the second round and an inability to hole a putt in the final round. Outside that, he played extremely well and enough to suggest that his 5th place finish at St Andrews was no flash in the pan. His course form is good with top-15 finishes in his first two visits in 2002 and 2003 and last year he was in 2nd place after the 1st round before fading in the swirling winds over the weekend. Ranked alongside Clark in the top-20 of the Tour's Birdie Average category, this is an event in which he should play well and his current form is certainly supportive of that.
Chris DiMarco to win 20/1 e.w. available generally
A little lower price than I would have liked, but DiMarco is definitely a player to side with in this event. He has three top-6 finishes in the last four years and it is notable that on each occasion he also finished in the top-15 in the Buick Open which is always played in back-to-back weeks and that when he has not finished in the top-15 in the Buick Open, he has finished outside the top-30 in this event. He finished 12th last week and looked set for far higher until a seven on the 13th hole on Sunday. He may be a little suspect when on the leaderboard - for example, he had a commanding 9pt lead after two rounds last year, but had eight bogeys in the 3rd round to fall to just a share of the lead - but this format and desert golf normally brings the best out of DiMarco.
Tim Clark to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
Clark had been a little suspect when on the leaderboard, but was extremely impressive when winning the Scottish Open last month. It was preceded by top-15 finishes in his last three PGA Tour starts and he entered the final round of the Open Championship in the top-10, so there are no concerns about his form. The only worry is his last of course experience - he finished 71st in his sole appearance in 2002 - but he is a far better player now and has shown himself capable of contending under very different conditions. In his current form, he should contend every week.
Geoff Ogilvy to win 40/1 e.w. available generally
Ogilvy did little wrong last week other than a couple of late bogeys in the second round and an inability to hole a putt in the final round. Outside that, he played extremely well and enough to suggest that his 5th place finish at St Andrews was no flash in the pan. His course form is good with top-15 finishes in his first two visits in 2002 and 2003 and last year he was in 2nd place after the 1st round before fading in the swirling winds over the weekend. Ranked alongside Clark in the top-20 of the Tour's Birdie Average category, this is an event in which he should play well and his current form is certainly supportive of that.
