BEGINNING FRIDAY AUGUST 5
L.A. Dodgers at Pittsburgh (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
If you?re Pirates? manager Lloyd McClendon, the path to victory against the Dodgers seems very clear: Start as many righties as you can and you?ll do just fine. Da Bums are a pitiful 14-27 (-$1130) on the road against them. Kip Wells (4.03) and Josh Fogg (4.58) both have solid ERAs at home and should dominate the Dodgers? sub par (.260 BA, 10th in the NL in runs) offense. BEST BET: Righthanders. vs. the Dodgers.
Milwaukee at Philadelphia (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Phillies have won four of six (+$195) against the Brewers and have won 10 of 12 (+$795) against them in the last year plus. Coming off a productive weekend in Denver (won three of four) that has nudged them back into the wildcard picture, Philadelphia figures to take advantage of Milwaukee?s mediocre road play (-$650) especially at night against righties (9-15, -$355, averaging 3.8 RPG). BEST BET: Phillies? righthanders at night.
San Diego at Washington (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
This is a tough series to call as both teams are playing awful baseball (Nationals have
lost 13 of 17, Padres have lost 12 of13). Since neither team hits worth a damn (Padres are hitting .255 on the road, Nationals are averaging 3.8 RPG at home), the best course to take is to go under the Vegas total in every game as each team?s pitching staff is among the best in the NL. BEST BET: UNDER in all games.
Chicago Cubs at N.Y. Mets (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Cubs have defeated the Mets in 6 of 9 over the last year and a half but are only +$70 in the black because they?ve been such big favorites. That won?t be the case this weekend where the hosts are a sparkling 32-21 (+$765). The Mets have picked themselves off the ground at home a few times this season after bad road trips (2-5 last week) and we expect them to do it again. Pedro Martinez has been remarkable all year and simply devastating at Shea Stadium (6-1, 2.81 ERA, .185 BAA). Lay the juice and relax. BEST BET: Martinez.
Florida at Cincinnati (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
This looks like a good opportunity for the Marlins to pick up a few ?Ws? against the lowly Reds. Florida is hitting a more than respectable .286 on the road and Cincy?s pitching at home has been simply brutal (starters? ERA is 5.89) in the Great American Bandbox. And, with the Marlins finally playing (won 8 of 11, +$370) as anticipated in March. Take the Marlins in all situations even against Ramon Ortiz who is 5-2 in the bandbox but has a 6.21 ERA and a .315 BAA. BEST BET: Marlins in all games.
Atlanta at St. Louis (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
Is this a potential playoff preview? Absolutely! The Cards and Braves have the first and third best team ERAs in the NL. The difference in this series could be that St. Louis averages a full run more at home than the Braves average on the road and have a true closer in Jason Isringhausen while Atlanta takes the close by committee approach. We?ll make an exception with the great John Smoltz who is 6-2 away with a 2.62 ERA and a .232 BAA and was 3-0 in July with a 2.25 ERA and a .223 BAA. BEST BET; Smoltz. PREFERRED: Cardinals vs. all but Smoltz.
Colorado at Arizona (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Diamondbacks have won seven of nine (+$510) against the Rockies and should fare well against the worst road team (only 10-40, -$2145) in MLB. Pay particular attention if Arizona starts either Mike Gosling or Brad Halsey as Colorado is an amazing 1-17 (-$1500) vs. lefties on the road. BEST BET: Diamondbacks? lefthanders.
Houston at San Francisco (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Giants have been playing below. 500 for a month but still hanging around in the NL West because it is, by far, the weakest division in either league. On the other hand, the Astros are the hottest team in MLB (won seven of their last eight and 13 of their last 16 games) and are starting to pull away in the wildcard race. This is a confident team that has won 14 of its last 21 games. Don?t be afraid to play them throughout this series. BEST BET: Astros in all games.
Cleveland at Detroit (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
These two AL Central teams have played virtually to a draw in the last year plus with the Tigers winning 15 of 28 (+$355) games. The Tigers have been extremely successful against portsiders (15-8, +$875), but the fact is that most of that success has come on the road (8-2, +$795). In Comerica Park, the Tigers are a mundane 7-6 (+$80)), so we have no compunction about using Cliff Lee as the Tribe is 11-2 (+$1025) in his 13 road starts or C.C. Sabathia (6-3, +$340 in nine road starts). BEST BET: Indians? lefthanders.
N.Y. Yankees at Toronto (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Yankees have won 15 of 24 games since the beginning of last season against the Blue Jays and may get a break by not having to face the injured Roy Halladay who pitched a three-hit, nine-K, complete game shutout against them in the Bronx earlier this year. The Blue Jays have prospered (24-15, +$885) against righty starters at home while the Yankees have been money burners against righty starters (16-21, -$1420). Need we say more? BEST BET: Blue Jays when righthander meets righthander.
Baltimore at Texas (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
These teams played in Camden Yards last week and the Rangers, a mediocre road team at best, took three of four. Texas comes into this series with little margin for error as they are now behind Oakland, New York, Minnesota and Cleveland in the wildcard race and will not have Kenny Rogers in their rotation until the latter part of August. On the other hand, the Orioles have lost 12 of their last 15 games. Why fight the odds? BEST BET: Rangers in all games.
Seattle at Chicago W. Sox (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Mariners? starting unit is almost exclusively righthanded with Jamie Moyer the lone exception. That should give the team with the second best home record (33-19, +$645) a running start against inferior Seattle. Chicago is 26-12 (+$915) against righties at home and, with the exception of Ryan Franklin (+$45), every righty Mariners? starter is in the red (-$1165). BEST BET: White Sox vs. righthanders.
Boston at Minnesota (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
These two teams hooked up in Fenway Park last weekend and the Red Sox swept them (+$300) despite the swirling controversy of what to do about Manny Ramirez and his 92 RBIs. The Red Sox are not nearly as intimidating on the road as they are in Fenway Park, but the Twins? 6-12 record since the All-Star break scares us off for now. BEST BET: None.
Oakland at Kansas City (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The steamrolling Athletics (11 ?Ws? in the last 12 games) and the Royals are playing for the first time this season. Oakland took seven of nine (+$130) a year ago and there is no reason to believe that they won?t continue that dominance. And, while the prices will be on the high side, they?ll be a lot more attractive than when the Royals visit them in California in two weeks. Oakland is too hot to pass up right now. BEST BET: Athletics in all games.
Tampa Bay at L.A. Angels (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
Don?t look now but the Devil Rays have won 11 of their last 15 games. They are getting solid pitching from Casey Fossum (3-2, 3.29 ERA in July) and Scott Kazmir who has defeated the hard hitting Orioles and Red Sox in the last two weeks and was 3-2 with a 3.90 ERA in July, his best month in his short career. The Angels have had trouble with southpaws (14-16, -$575) especially at home where they are $610 in the red and are averaging a mere 3.6 RPG. BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. the Angels.
L.A. Dodgers at Pittsburgh (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
If you?re Pirates? manager Lloyd McClendon, the path to victory against the Dodgers seems very clear: Start as many righties as you can and you?ll do just fine. Da Bums are a pitiful 14-27 (-$1130) on the road against them. Kip Wells (4.03) and Josh Fogg (4.58) both have solid ERAs at home and should dominate the Dodgers? sub par (.260 BA, 10th in the NL in runs) offense. BEST BET: Righthanders. vs. the Dodgers.
Milwaukee at Philadelphia (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Phillies have won four of six (+$195) against the Brewers and have won 10 of 12 (+$795) against them in the last year plus. Coming off a productive weekend in Denver (won three of four) that has nudged them back into the wildcard picture, Philadelphia figures to take advantage of Milwaukee?s mediocre road play (-$650) especially at night against righties (9-15, -$355, averaging 3.8 RPG). BEST BET: Phillies? righthanders at night.
San Diego at Washington (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
This is a tough series to call as both teams are playing awful baseball (Nationals have
lost 13 of 17, Padres have lost 12 of13). Since neither team hits worth a damn (Padres are hitting .255 on the road, Nationals are averaging 3.8 RPG at home), the best course to take is to go under the Vegas total in every game as each team?s pitching staff is among the best in the NL. BEST BET: UNDER in all games.
Chicago Cubs at N.Y. Mets (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Cubs have defeated the Mets in 6 of 9 over the last year and a half but are only +$70 in the black because they?ve been such big favorites. That won?t be the case this weekend where the hosts are a sparkling 32-21 (+$765). The Mets have picked themselves off the ground at home a few times this season after bad road trips (2-5 last week) and we expect them to do it again. Pedro Martinez has been remarkable all year and simply devastating at Shea Stadium (6-1, 2.81 ERA, .185 BAA). Lay the juice and relax. BEST BET: Martinez.
Florida at Cincinnati (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
This looks like a good opportunity for the Marlins to pick up a few ?Ws? against the lowly Reds. Florida is hitting a more than respectable .286 on the road and Cincy?s pitching at home has been simply brutal (starters? ERA is 5.89) in the Great American Bandbox. And, with the Marlins finally playing (won 8 of 11, +$370) as anticipated in March. Take the Marlins in all situations even against Ramon Ortiz who is 5-2 in the bandbox but has a 6.21 ERA and a .315 BAA. BEST BET: Marlins in all games.
Atlanta at St. Louis (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
Is this a potential playoff preview? Absolutely! The Cards and Braves have the first and third best team ERAs in the NL. The difference in this series could be that St. Louis averages a full run more at home than the Braves average on the road and have a true closer in Jason Isringhausen while Atlanta takes the close by committee approach. We?ll make an exception with the great John Smoltz who is 6-2 away with a 2.62 ERA and a .232 BAA and was 3-0 in July with a 2.25 ERA and a .223 BAA. BEST BET; Smoltz. PREFERRED: Cardinals vs. all but Smoltz.
Colorado at Arizona (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Diamondbacks have won seven of nine (+$510) against the Rockies and should fare well against the worst road team (only 10-40, -$2145) in MLB. Pay particular attention if Arizona starts either Mike Gosling or Brad Halsey as Colorado is an amazing 1-17 (-$1500) vs. lefties on the road. BEST BET: Diamondbacks? lefthanders.
Houston at San Francisco (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Giants have been playing below. 500 for a month but still hanging around in the NL West because it is, by far, the weakest division in either league. On the other hand, the Astros are the hottest team in MLB (won seven of their last eight and 13 of their last 16 games) and are starting to pull away in the wildcard race. This is a confident team that has won 14 of its last 21 games. Don?t be afraid to play them throughout this series. BEST BET: Astros in all games.
Cleveland at Detroit (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
These two AL Central teams have played virtually to a draw in the last year plus with the Tigers winning 15 of 28 (+$355) games. The Tigers have been extremely successful against portsiders (15-8, +$875), but the fact is that most of that success has come on the road (8-2, +$795). In Comerica Park, the Tigers are a mundane 7-6 (+$80)), so we have no compunction about using Cliff Lee as the Tribe is 11-2 (+$1025) in his 13 road starts or C.C. Sabathia (6-3, +$340 in nine road starts). BEST BET: Indians? lefthanders.
N.Y. Yankees at Toronto (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Yankees have won 15 of 24 games since the beginning of last season against the Blue Jays and may get a break by not having to face the injured Roy Halladay who pitched a three-hit, nine-K, complete game shutout against them in the Bronx earlier this year. The Blue Jays have prospered (24-15, +$885) against righty starters at home while the Yankees have been money burners against righty starters (16-21, -$1420). Need we say more? BEST BET: Blue Jays when righthander meets righthander.
Baltimore at Texas (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
These teams played in Camden Yards last week and the Rangers, a mediocre road team at best, took three of four. Texas comes into this series with little margin for error as they are now behind Oakland, New York, Minnesota and Cleveland in the wildcard race and will not have Kenny Rogers in their rotation until the latter part of August. On the other hand, the Orioles have lost 12 of their last 15 games. Why fight the odds? BEST BET: Rangers in all games.
Seattle at Chicago W. Sox (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The Mariners? starting unit is almost exclusively righthanded with Jamie Moyer the lone exception. That should give the team with the second best home record (33-19, +$645) a running start against inferior Seattle. Chicago is 26-12 (+$915) against righties at home and, with the exception of Ryan Franklin (+$45), every righty Mariners? starter is in the red (-$1165). BEST BET: White Sox vs. righthanders.
Boston at Minnesota (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
These two teams hooked up in Fenway Park last weekend and the Red Sox swept them (+$300) despite the swirling controversy of what to do about Manny Ramirez and his 92 RBIs. The Red Sox are not nearly as intimidating on the road as they are in Fenway Park, but the Twins? 6-12 record since the All-Star break scares us off for now. BEST BET: None.
Oakland at Kansas City (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
The steamrolling Athletics (11 ?Ws? in the last 12 games) and the Royals are playing for the first time this season. Oakland took seven of nine (+$130) a year ago and there is no reason to believe that they won?t continue that dominance. And, while the prices will be on the high side, they?ll be a lot more attractive than when the Royals visit them in California in two weeks. Oakland is too hot to pass up right now. BEST BET: Athletics in all games.
Tampa Bay at L.A. Angels (3) 5th, 6th, 7th
Don?t look now but the Devil Rays have won 11 of their last 15 games. They are getting solid pitching from Casey Fossum (3-2, 3.29 ERA in July) and Scott Kazmir who has defeated the hard hitting Orioles and Red Sox in the last two weeks and was 3-2 with a 3.90 ERA in July, his best month in his short career. The Angels have had trouble with southpaws (14-16, -$575) especially at home where they are $610 in the red and are averaging a mere 3.6 RPG. BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. the Angels.
