Betting preseason NFL games is an entirely different animal compared to betting regular season games. When first beginning to wager on these contests, it is very important to recognize these differences. I have enjoyed great success in recent preseasons and intend to continue winning this year and beyond by following these simple guidelines:
Don?t confuse teams regular season capabilities with their preseason goals.
The Eagles have been the NFL?s single most successful regular season team to bet on over the last five years. Head coach Andy Reid hasn?t had a single winning preseason ATS during that span. That Pats won the Super Bowl in 2003, then went 1-3 SU and ATS in the 2004 preseason. They won the Super Bowl again in 2004. The Browns, Panthers, Bucs, Titans and Redskins all failed to make the playoffs last year, each finishing under .500 for the season. Each of those clubs had a winning SU and ATS mark in the preseason. In general, the teams that were weak the previous year have much more to prove in August than the teams that were strong.
Do your homework!
You must find accurate local news sources. Find out what the player rotations are going to be ? not just the starters. Oftentimes, in the first few games, the starters will not play after the first quarter. But do the second and third strings get the rest of the playing time, or will it be the scrubs fighting for the last few roster spots playing the whole second half? Spreads are often decided in the 4th quarter; you must find out who will be in the game during this crucial time. Those with NFL experience are obviously on a higher level than those NFL Europe, Arena League and CFL veterans. Undrafted rookie free agents are at the bottom of the totem pole ? these guys will often cost you the cover when they are getting significant playing time.
Look at the quarterback rotation.
A team that I am betting on needs experience at the 3rd string QB position. I also like to bet against rookie QB?s who will be seeing substantial 2nd half action playing against NFL level talent for the first time. Again, a rookie QB with NFL Europe experience is better than someone straight out of college. Bad QB?s just won?t put up the points you need in the 4th quarter, and they might cost you a TD with their bad reads of NFL defensive schemes leading to costly interceptions.
Know your coaches.
Some coaches really emphasize winning in the preseason ? Jeff Fisher of Tennessee, for example. This guy?s 15-4-1 ATS in the preseason in the last five years, looking to set a winning tone from Day 1 of the preseason. Steve Mariucci of the Lions is exactly the opposite as his 12-22 ATS record in six years with the 49ers and two with Detroit. He doesn?t give a damn about winning the preseason games, being far more concerned with finding the right guy to fill the last roster spot. There are plenty of other examples ? coaching philosophy is a huge factor in August.
Look for coaches who want a win in this game.
Coaches coming off a bad season often want to set a tone of winning right from the start of August. New coaches also often want to set a winning tone right from the get-go. Coaches on the hot seat that have lost a preseason game or two on the road have a strong tendency to pull out all the stops for a victory in front of the home crowd, to placate the fans.
Bet facts, not opinions.
In the regular season, we bet on games where we feel the linesmakers are giving one team too much credit or another team not enough credit. These are our opinions; opinions that are strong enough to risk our hard earned dollars. In the preseason, we?re betting on information and information only. In most cases, the coaches themselves are nice enough to tell us exactly what they intend to do. A coach who wants to ?evaluate his depth? in any particular ballgame is generally not a coach that you want to wager on?
Don?t confuse teams regular season capabilities with their preseason goals.
The Eagles have been the NFL?s single most successful regular season team to bet on over the last five years. Head coach Andy Reid hasn?t had a single winning preseason ATS during that span. That Pats won the Super Bowl in 2003, then went 1-3 SU and ATS in the 2004 preseason. They won the Super Bowl again in 2004. The Browns, Panthers, Bucs, Titans and Redskins all failed to make the playoffs last year, each finishing under .500 for the season. Each of those clubs had a winning SU and ATS mark in the preseason. In general, the teams that were weak the previous year have much more to prove in August than the teams that were strong.
Do your homework!
You must find accurate local news sources. Find out what the player rotations are going to be ? not just the starters. Oftentimes, in the first few games, the starters will not play after the first quarter. But do the second and third strings get the rest of the playing time, or will it be the scrubs fighting for the last few roster spots playing the whole second half? Spreads are often decided in the 4th quarter; you must find out who will be in the game during this crucial time. Those with NFL experience are obviously on a higher level than those NFL Europe, Arena League and CFL veterans. Undrafted rookie free agents are at the bottom of the totem pole ? these guys will often cost you the cover when they are getting significant playing time.
Look at the quarterback rotation.
A team that I am betting on needs experience at the 3rd string QB position. I also like to bet against rookie QB?s who will be seeing substantial 2nd half action playing against NFL level talent for the first time. Again, a rookie QB with NFL Europe experience is better than someone straight out of college. Bad QB?s just won?t put up the points you need in the 4th quarter, and they might cost you a TD with their bad reads of NFL defensive schemes leading to costly interceptions.
Know your coaches.
Some coaches really emphasize winning in the preseason ? Jeff Fisher of Tennessee, for example. This guy?s 15-4-1 ATS in the preseason in the last five years, looking to set a winning tone from Day 1 of the preseason. Steve Mariucci of the Lions is exactly the opposite as his 12-22 ATS record in six years with the 49ers and two with Detroit. He doesn?t give a damn about winning the preseason games, being far more concerned with finding the right guy to fill the last roster spot. There are plenty of other examples ? coaching philosophy is a huge factor in August.
Look for coaches who want a win in this game.
Coaches coming off a bad season often want to set a tone of winning right from the start of August. New coaches also often want to set a winning tone right from the get-go. Coaches on the hot seat that have lost a preseason game or two on the road have a strong tendency to pull out all the stops for a victory in front of the home crowd, to placate the fans.
Bet facts, not opinions.
In the regular season, we bet on games where we feel the linesmakers are giving one team too much credit or another team not enough credit. These are our opinions; opinions that are strong enough to risk our hard earned dollars. In the preseason, we?re betting on information and information only. In most cases, the coaches themselves are nice enough to tell us exactly what they intend to do. A coach who wants to ?evaluate his depth? in any particular ballgame is generally not a coach that you want to wager on?
