BEGINNING MONDAY AUGUST 8
Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
Cincinnati?s awful pitching staff (starters? road ERA is 6.27) will be taxed to the max against a Cubs? offense that has the third best slugging percentage in the NL. In the most recent series between these two teams, a four-game set in mid July, they combined to produce an average of 12.5 RPG. We expect the same results in hitter-friendly Wrigley Field. PREFERRED: OVER in all games.
St. Louis at Milwaukee (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
Milwaukee has been a profitable home team (+$695) and might be catching the front running Cardinals in one of those ?when do the playoffs start? moods. The Brew Crew is a solid 19-14 at home vs. righties and will be getting some nice underdog prices. PREFERRED: Brewers vs. all Cardinals? righthanders except Carpenter.
Florida at Colorado (2) 8th (DH)
How happy do you think the Marlins and Rockies are: They?re playing not one, but two games on what was supposed to be an off day. And, because we can?t forecast what type of attitude either team will have since both had to travel to get here, we?ll take this abbreviated series off. PREFERRED: None.
Chicago W. Sox at N.Y. Yankees (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
This is the first meeting of the year between the team with the best record in the AL and a Yankees? edition fighting for its playoff life for the first time in ten years. The White Sox? offense doesn?t compare to the Bronx Bombers?, but New York?s pitching is bad enough to make almost any offense look good (4.69 ERA, 10th in the AL). The Pale Hose?s pitching continues to be the best in the league (3.67 ERA). PREFERRED: White Sox vs. all but Johnson.
Texas at Boston (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Red Sox have won four of six (+$180) against the Rangers with both series played in the Ballpark at Arlington. That?s extremely bad news for the Rangers who have lost 17 of their last 27 road games primarily because their starters? have an away ERA approaching 5.50. The Red Sox are averaging six RPG at home against righties in Fenway Park and should have a ball against Buck Showalter?s mediocre hurlers. PREFERRED: Red Sox vs. righthanders.
Detroit at Toronto (4) 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th
The road team looks like the right side in this series. The Blue Jays are top heavy with southpaw starters and the Tigers have clawed lefties on the road (8-2, +$795 averaging 7.4 RPG). Rumor has it that Toronto ace Roy Halladay will come off the DL and get a start in this series. If he does, we want him against anybody. PREFERRED: Halladay/Tigers vs. lefthanders.
Minnesota at Seattle (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Twins and M?s rank 12th and 14th in the AL in runs scored and don?t figure to light up the scoreboard at Safeco, the second most difficult place to score runs in the AL. With little to choose from as far as pitchers are concerned (Johan Santana is likely to miss this series) we?ll rely on these to two teams to continue their year long pattern of not producing runs. PREFERRED: UNDER in all games.
BEGINNING TUESDAY AUGUST 9
Arizona at Florida (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
As tempting as selecting Dontrelle Willis or Josh Beckett might seem, laying big wood at home on Florida (-$510) is a risky proposition at best. Meanwhile, there are a number of Diamondbacks? starters showing a profit on the road (Brad Halsey +$350, Javier Vazquez +$175, Claudio Vargas +$520, Brandon Webb +$40). They?re all worth a shot here against underachieving Florida. PREFERRED: Halsey, Vargas, Vazquez, & Webb vs. all but Willis.
San Francisco at Atlanta (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Braves have dominated righty starters at home (27-9, +$1450) and since the Giants only have one righty starter with a road ERA under 4.75, we?ll have to take a serious look at the home team despite the wood we have to lay. The Braves are 11-5 since the All-Star break and have won 17 of their last 24 games, Take them in all games, but especially if the Giants start a portsider as Atlanta is 18-8 (+$1005) against them this year. PREFERRED: Braves in all games.
Washington at Houston (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Nats are folding faster than a cheap suit on a humid, summer day in DC while the Astros are hotter than that proverbial firecracker on Independence Day. Washington?s offense may well be the worst in MLB while the Astros have the second best team ERA (3.55) in the game. PREFERRED: Astros vs. all but Hernandez.
Pittsburgh at Colorado (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
Check out the difference between the way the Rockies perform against lefties at home (12-4, +$845 averaging 6.9 RPG) as opposed to the road (one ?W? in 18 games, -$1500, averaging three RPG). Southpaws Zach Duke, Dave Williams and Mark Redman all registered victories when the Pirates took three of four in Pittsburgh 10 days ago, but it won?t be that easy in hitter friendly Coors Field. PREFERRED: Rockies vs. southpaws/Pirates? righthanders.
N.Y. Mets at San Diego (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Mets ?broomed? the Padres in New York in mid July outscoring them 22-4 while holding them to 1.3 RPG. We don?t see that happening in California because the Mets play so poorly (-$1225) on the road. But, how much faith can we possibly have on the Padres who are doing their level best to blow the lead in the worst division (NL West) in either league? PREFERRED: None.
Philadelphia at L.A. Dodgers (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
On the one hand, the Dodgers are starting to check out tee times in October while the superior Phillies have had their hands full against righties on the road (12-20, -$710 averaging 3.5 RPG) and will be facing a starting pitching corps that is 80% righty. LA has been a disappointment all year, but we?ll give them a try in the right situation. PREFERRED: Righthanders vs. the Phillies.
Tampa Bay at Baltimore (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Devil Rays have more than held their own (+$1025) against their AL East rivals (Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox and Blue Jays), so don?t be so quick to grab the slumping home chalk who continue to free fall out of AL East contention. Yes, the Orioles will be in a revenge mode having been swept in Florida last month, but they?re not worth risking your hard earned money. PREFERRED: None.
Cleveland at Kansas City (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
These teams split a four-game set in Ohio in mid July, but the Tribe?s pitching staff pitched well enough (allowed just 3 RPG) to take three games. Cleveland has fared well this season on the road against righties (26-16, +$1450) and we?ll jump on them especially if they face one of them at night (20-8, +$1590). PREFERRED: Indians vs. Royals? righthanders at night.
L.A. Angels at Oakland (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The red hot A?s demonstrated just how well they?re playing by taking two of three in Anaheim three weeks ago and lead the series, 5-4, (+$135). We can?t see them backing down from the front running Angels in their home park where they are 35-18 (+$1405), the best home record in MLB. Let?s hone in on the red hot Barry Zito who is scheduled to pitch in this series. He has won nine of his last 11 decisions and was 6-0 in July with a 2.51 ERA. PREFERRED: Zito.
Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
Cincinnati?s awful pitching staff (starters? road ERA is 6.27) will be taxed to the max against a Cubs? offense that has the third best slugging percentage in the NL. In the most recent series between these two teams, a four-game set in mid July, they combined to produce an average of 12.5 RPG. We expect the same results in hitter-friendly Wrigley Field. PREFERRED: OVER in all games.
St. Louis at Milwaukee (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
Milwaukee has been a profitable home team (+$695) and might be catching the front running Cardinals in one of those ?when do the playoffs start? moods. The Brew Crew is a solid 19-14 at home vs. righties and will be getting some nice underdog prices. PREFERRED: Brewers vs. all Cardinals? righthanders except Carpenter.
Florida at Colorado (2) 8th (DH)
How happy do you think the Marlins and Rockies are: They?re playing not one, but two games on what was supposed to be an off day. And, because we can?t forecast what type of attitude either team will have since both had to travel to get here, we?ll take this abbreviated series off. PREFERRED: None.
Chicago W. Sox at N.Y. Yankees (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
This is the first meeting of the year between the team with the best record in the AL and a Yankees? edition fighting for its playoff life for the first time in ten years. The White Sox? offense doesn?t compare to the Bronx Bombers?, but New York?s pitching is bad enough to make almost any offense look good (4.69 ERA, 10th in the AL). The Pale Hose?s pitching continues to be the best in the league (3.67 ERA). PREFERRED: White Sox vs. all but Johnson.
Texas at Boston (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Red Sox have won four of six (+$180) against the Rangers with both series played in the Ballpark at Arlington. That?s extremely bad news for the Rangers who have lost 17 of their last 27 road games primarily because their starters? have an away ERA approaching 5.50. The Red Sox are averaging six RPG at home against righties in Fenway Park and should have a ball against Buck Showalter?s mediocre hurlers. PREFERRED: Red Sox vs. righthanders.
Detroit at Toronto (4) 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th
The road team looks like the right side in this series. The Blue Jays are top heavy with southpaw starters and the Tigers have clawed lefties on the road (8-2, +$795 averaging 7.4 RPG). Rumor has it that Toronto ace Roy Halladay will come off the DL and get a start in this series. If he does, we want him against anybody. PREFERRED: Halladay/Tigers vs. lefthanders.
Minnesota at Seattle (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Twins and M?s rank 12th and 14th in the AL in runs scored and don?t figure to light up the scoreboard at Safeco, the second most difficult place to score runs in the AL. With little to choose from as far as pitchers are concerned (Johan Santana is likely to miss this series) we?ll rely on these to two teams to continue their year long pattern of not producing runs. PREFERRED: UNDER in all games.
BEGINNING TUESDAY AUGUST 9
Arizona at Florida (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
As tempting as selecting Dontrelle Willis or Josh Beckett might seem, laying big wood at home on Florida (-$510) is a risky proposition at best. Meanwhile, there are a number of Diamondbacks? starters showing a profit on the road (Brad Halsey +$350, Javier Vazquez +$175, Claudio Vargas +$520, Brandon Webb +$40). They?re all worth a shot here against underachieving Florida. PREFERRED: Halsey, Vargas, Vazquez, & Webb vs. all but Willis.
San Francisco at Atlanta (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Braves have dominated righty starters at home (27-9, +$1450) and since the Giants only have one righty starter with a road ERA under 4.75, we?ll have to take a serious look at the home team despite the wood we have to lay. The Braves are 11-5 since the All-Star break and have won 17 of their last 24 games, Take them in all games, but especially if the Giants start a portsider as Atlanta is 18-8 (+$1005) against them this year. PREFERRED: Braves in all games.
Washington at Houston (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Nats are folding faster than a cheap suit on a humid, summer day in DC while the Astros are hotter than that proverbial firecracker on Independence Day. Washington?s offense may well be the worst in MLB while the Astros have the second best team ERA (3.55) in the game. PREFERRED: Astros vs. all but Hernandez.
Pittsburgh at Colorado (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
Check out the difference between the way the Rockies perform against lefties at home (12-4, +$845 averaging 6.9 RPG) as opposed to the road (one ?W? in 18 games, -$1500, averaging three RPG). Southpaws Zach Duke, Dave Williams and Mark Redman all registered victories when the Pirates took three of four in Pittsburgh 10 days ago, but it won?t be that easy in hitter friendly Coors Field. PREFERRED: Rockies vs. southpaws/Pirates? righthanders.
N.Y. Mets at San Diego (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Mets ?broomed? the Padres in New York in mid July outscoring them 22-4 while holding them to 1.3 RPG. We don?t see that happening in California because the Mets play so poorly (-$1225) on the road. But, how much faith can we possibly have on the Padres who are doing their level best to blow the lead in the worst division (NL West) in either league? PREFERRED: None.
Philadelphia at L.A. Dodgers (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
On the one hand, the Dodgers are starting to check out tee times in October while the superior Phillies have had their hands full against righties on the road (12-20, -$710 averaging 3.5 RPG) and will be facing a starting pitching corps that is 80% righty. LA has been a disappointment all year, but we?ll give them a try in the right situation. PREFERRED: Righthanders vs. the Phillies.
Tampa Bay at Baltimore (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Devil Rays have more than held their own (+$1025) against their AL East rivals (Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox and Blue Jays), so don?t be so quick to grab the slumping home chalk who continue to free fall out of AL East contention. Yes, the Orioles will be in a revenge mode having been swept in Florida last month, but they?re not worth risking your hard earned money. PREFERRED: None.
Cleveland at Kansas City (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
These teams split a four-game set in Ohio in mid July, but the Tribe?s pitching staff pitched well enough (allowed just 3 RPG) to take three games. Cleveland has fared well this season on the road against righties (26-16, +$1450) and we?ll jump on them especially if they face one of them at night (20-8, +$1590). PREFERRED: Indians vs. Royals? righthanders at night.
L.A. Angels at Oakland (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The red hot A?s demonstrated just how well they?re playing by taking two of three in Anaheim three weeks ago and lead the series, 5-4, (+$135). We can?t see them backing down from the front running Angels in their home park where they are 35-18 (+$1405), the best home record in MLB. Let?s hone in on the red hot Barry Zito who is scheduled to pitch in this series. He has won nine of his last 11 decisions and was 6-0 in July with a 2.51 ERA. PREFERRED: Zito.
