"Is Burnett really worth - 234 worth of chalk ?. Maybe, on the face of it: Florida are 12-3 when Burnett starts as favorite and he is 5-2 on day starts (team 5-3) with a 2.57 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. At home, he is 3-2 (team 7-2) with a 2.56 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He's won his last 2 recent starts against the Giants with ease (4-1 this season and 9-1 in this cooresponding game last August).
However, last time out Burnett threw 120 pitches in a complete game against the Razorbacks. In the two previous occasions where he has thrown more than 115 pitches this season, the team has lost the following match and those games have ended up being the only times this season (in 23 starts) where Burnett has gone less than 6 innings. In those 2 losses (the only team losses in his last 10 starts) the Marlins were beaten by the Mets (Burnett gone after 4.1 innings, 5 runs (2ER) and 87 pitches) and the Phillies, where Burnett was gone after 5 innings and 6 ERs and just 86 pitches.
The Marlins haven't looked good at the plate recently having scored only 3 runs in their last 3 games.
SF have won all of Hennessy's 3 day game starts where he is 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. SF are 5-2 on Hennessey's road starts. He was blasted last time at Atlanta, but has a bounce back record after a shelling. Last time, after a drubbing by the Marlins in SF he came back with 7 scoreless innings in Milwaukee (team won 3-0). Before that, after getting shelled in Philadelphia in his next start he threw 7 scoreless innings against the Cards (team won 2-0) !
Enough conflicting stats here to give the dog a chance with SF 8-2 on the road when Hennessy starts. "
