My Early Football Picks

[gman2]

BYU Lets not forget BC has no proven RB while BYU has 2 solid RB"s.

im not in a hurry to touch either side in this game, but the above comment is crazy. whitworth and callendar were 1st and 2nd in rushing attempts for BC last year as redshirt freshmen (143 and 138, respectively). they seem pretty proven to me. (a certain #5 for usc had a nice day for himself last year in provo at a sophomore. i think bc's sophs will be just fine )

 

[hm23]

BC v. BYU is not a game that I am seriously looking at but I have to concur with most in shading the Eagles.

Yeah, altitude is a factor and for a season road opener can be difficult to overcome. But come on, a lot of squads struggle at the beginning of camp. It is not as if BC is coming in as a DDF.

Actually, QB Porter does have experience and WR Lester as well. Blackmon is gonna be the go-to-guy and gives them a legit gamebreaker, but I would think he also sees a fair amount of time in the secondary to help out on BYU's Watkins.

The key to BC's O is their ground attack, which should be solid.

I don't see any true playmakers on the Cougar D outside of DT Brown. Also, their secondary is poor. I think Blackmon will burn their DB's - Cougars will have to get pressure via their myriad blitz packages. Mendenhall is a def. wizard.

BYU still has their top WR in Watkins but losing Collie for 2 years is a blow. TE Coats was underutilized last year, in part, due to him having to stay in and help block. Coats should have...well they need him to have...a better year. Prior to last season, BYU had a dearth of talent at wideout but that has changed...at least Crowton could recruit.

I like the Y's Beck as their signal-caller. He needs to be more consistent and avoid the injury bug but he has the potential to become a good QB.

OL...I have some questions based on attrition and on their performance last season.

RB's are pretty good but in the new Texass Tech-style offense - wil they get enought work?

BC rates the edge in coaching staff. Mendenhall was a quality DC but his staff is still an unknown commodity . He does have more intensity and I would expect this Cougar edition to be more focused and disciplined after Crowton's watch.

All in all, you've picked some tough games to lay some coin with...to include your Houston pick - Cougar D is porous and Crowton will probably get UO's offense explosive again. I suspect WR Colvin will have a breakout year and hopefully RB Stewart lives up to the hype for the Ducks.

 

[Scott4USC]

gman2

Lets see how those RB's perform on the road 1st game of the year in the thin air with blistering heat against highly sophisticated blitz packages they NEVER seen before. Can anyone see some missed blocking assignments????? I don't have faith those RB's and QB can pick up the blitz packages BYU will throw at them all game long. BYU will be rotating players all day and they have experience on the defense.

hm23

Enjoyed reading your post.

I was not really focusing on experience. I am talking about being proven vs unproven.

All in all, you've picked some tough games to lay some coin with...to include your Houston pick - Cougar D is porous and Crowton will probably get UO's offense explosive again. I suspect WR Colvin will have a breakout year and hopefully RB Stewart lives up to the hype for the Ducks.

Colvin and Stewart will be studs but def. not in the 1st game of year on the road. I think Oregon will need a few games under their belt. Especially installing a new offensive system. I think Houston was better than their record showed last year and they will be a much improved team this season. I am not asking for Houston to win outright. Just stay within 10pts at home. Not a difficult task. If there will be a more motivated team for this game, it will be Houston. I might catch a break with Oregon thinking they just need to show up to win. If they do that, Houston might pull the upset.

 

[hm23]

Scott, when you have 3 quality RB's and a solid OL - you will run the ball effectively. QB Porter will likely accrue slightly above avg. stats...good enuff.

I'll repeat as a point of emphasis that BYU's secondary is bad. It will be exploited all season if the Cougar rush cannot get to the opposing QB.

It isn't like UO is making a radical change on O. Neither is BYU and that doesn't seem to concern you.

I am not playing that game...it could end up being a shootout for Houston does have a good QB and backfield. I think they are overrated at the wideouts however. OL is suspect to me. And...they have a sub-par D.

I'm not gonna change your opinion - different 'cappers see things differently on games. You have the courage of your convictions...good luck to you.

 

[The Judge]

I don't have faith those RB's and QB can pick up the blitz packages BYU will throw at them all game long. BYU will be rotating players all day and they have experience on the defense.

Who are the Cougars going to blitz with and where is their "experience on defense"? BYU lost four of the big guns on defense to graduation leaving Brown and Walkenhorst (has not played since 2002) to try to pick up the slack at linebacker and the secondary is very suspect.

John Beck returns as quarterback for the Cougars after a 2,563 yard passing season and receiver Todd Watkins (1,042 yards in 2004) is also back but besides Watkins, there really isn?t a receiving corps. With a limited arsenal, I don?t think we can expect to see BYU?s passing game rated 12th in the country again. This should give Curtis Brown a chance to improve on his 789 yards rushing from last year although new offensive coordinator Robert Anae joins the team and is sure to try (in vain) to duplicate the success with the passing game that he had at Texas Tech.

Add in the fact that BYU has no experienced kickers returning this year and I see this team as overrated going into this season.

 

[Scott4USC]

The Judge

BYU has a lot of mature players on their team. I believe the average age for BYU is 2 years older than everyone in CFB (on average). Players play and then leave for mission and come back 2 years later. BYU has a bunch of 22-24 year olds while most seniors on other teams are 22-23. BYU on defense uses highly sophisticated blitz packages and rotates players. BC and any other team outside of conf. play can't prepare for. USC which is full of talent and awesome coaches couldn't prepare for it. You just can't emulate it in practice. Seeing it for the first time (OOC OPPONENTS) is tough to digest.

So now that I established the BYU defense and their unique style lets focus on BC defense.

BC has to replace 3 of their defensive line and 3 of their defensive backfield. Like I have mentioned earlier, I think DL is the most important unit on the field. Not only will BC be playing 3 unproven lineman, they will be playing in difficult road circumstances. Which I clearly explained in detail. Those unproven DL will wilt in the thin air and blistering heat. Unless BC has an elite S/C program. Even that might not be enough.

If that DL unit can't get the job done, how are the 3 "unproven" DB's going to do? Especially if BC can't put pressure on the BYU QB? (BYU has not only 1 but 2 good QB's)

Lets say worst circumstance (for BYU) that BC DL can get pressure on the BYU QB and cause trouble. Can they do it all game long? Doing it in the 1q/1h is completely different than doing it in 2h. We all know BC doesn't have a potent offense that will get them up by 20pts in a hurry. Will the thin air and heat get to them? Think about it. This is a lot to ask for out of BC. A DL usually makes or beaks it for DB's. Replacing both DL and secondary is tough. BYU offense very well could have a field day. Especialy as the thin air, heat and sold out fans take their toll on the BC players. I just showed you a quote from the BC HC where in scrimmages the heat in @BC is taking a toll on the BC players. Whether that quote was exaggerated or not, I like what I am reading! I know the thin air + heat will be much worse @BYU than it is at the practice field in BC. You want to have a defensive team with depth that rotates players when traveling in high altitude and in combination with hot weather. I am not sure how deep BC is when they are replacing 3 DL and maybe 3 people from the secondary. I am not talking the replacements, I am talking about the 2nd unit!

On a side note......
Boston College has a history of playing poorly on grass. They are a turf team and it is always wise to take a look at turf teams playing on grass. Although last year BC was decent on grass. They very well could struggle playing on the grass @BYU.


We'll see how this plays out. Everyone knows exactly why I am taking BYU and what advantages I think they have coming into this game. I could be wrong and BC wins by 20. But I like my chances and feel strong about this play.

 

[hawkeye]

Don't under rate Houston--8 starters back on Off & Def including a good QB

 

[Scott4USC]

Don't under rate Houston--8 starters back on Off & Def including a good QB

Agree completely. Houston will be a solid team this year if they can stay relatively injury free. They don't have much depth. Hopefully from now until game 1 they don't suffer any injuries. They almost lost their #1 OL to a sprained knee but he will be playing against Oregon.

 

[TimmyE]

Give houston all of their starters back this year, they would still suck and I'd still take UO at -10. This one is too easy, and is my biggest bet of week 1.

 

[soul train]

Give houston all of their starters back this year, they would still suck and I'd still take UO at -10. This one is too easy, and is my biggest bet of week 1.

Love the ducks in this game myself

 

[cooz3]

Scott...

first best of luck this College football season...


i recently posted a brief analysis on the Bc/BYu game in another thread in this forum.....I think you make some valid points regarding BYU and i understand the reasoning behind your play..a few things however we agree to disagree on..

the BC offensive line should eventually dominate this game...simply to big and to physical

BC actually is three running backs deep and thier fullback is a big boy...so I am thinking the BC staff will be smart enough to rotate the backs especially in the altitude and allow the O line and fullbacks to wear down BYU..

and you also mentioned the Blitz package that BYU will be throwing out there on D this year..there is def. validity in your statement that BC may have trouble picking up this new innovative type of D...this could very well happen which would be a problem no doubt...but keep in mind this is also a new D for the defense and there is a learning process there as well...

in all i personally dont think BC will blow them out ...and may struggle in the first half but eventually I think they will break down the BYU D physically with thier size and thier 3 headed running game...(if the line goes higher than 6 i will have to re-think this one)

that being said...you certainly have made some valid points regarding your BYU pick...and its always risky laying against an underdog home team early on...

Good post ...wish we had more of the counter analysis types of posts myself but sometimes we just dont have the time..

again best of luck this season...even if we agree to disagree..(I reserve my right to change my mind..LOL)

Cooz

 

[tulah]

I think that there is no value in BYU .
To me it's BC or no play. They are the fav for a good reason,they have a very talented team. D-line might be young but they still have M.Kiwanuka. He's a game changer.

FWIW
BYU is 7-2 SU & ATS in home opener L9Y's.....................

Gl this season Scott

 

[Scott4USC]

Good luck to you cooz3 and tulah as well. I am real confident 1st week of season despite many posters on MJ's on the opposite side. Either I will be happy or the board!

Cooz3

Great post and I enjoyed reading it. I have no problem with people disagreeing with me but I am not afraid to challenge someones opinion if I think it is wrong. (some get offended when I do that) Your post was very well written and full of valid points. Hopefully I see more of you in my threads whether you agree or disagree. I know you will have an excellent season capping.

the BC offensive line should eventually dominate this game...simply to big and to physical

I know BC has a big and dominant OL. But guess what, so does BYU! Only difference is BYU has older players and that is an advantage BYU has over everyone in the country. MEN vs BOYS. BC has 3 new defensive linemen. Not good!

Good post ...wish we had more of the counter analysis types of posts myself but sometimes we just dont have the time..

Me too. I understand some may not have the time, slow typers, or just not very good in transferring their thoughts onto paper. I don't understand why some get offended when you ask questions or try and debate it.

 

[swayne]

Scott, what is the basis for the huge respect you have for the BYU OL? They were hideous last year and hands down the worst rushing team in the MWC. In their non conf games here are their stats
35car/22yds
27car/41yds
24car/27yds
35car/25yds

On the other hand the BC OL returns all 5 starters from a 9 win team and is arguably one of the top 10 OL's in the country. I personally don't think you can compare the two or refer to the BYU OL as dominant.

I know BYU always seems to win their home opener but BC is far better then the 4-8 Cuse and .500 GTech and ND teams they opened up against the last 3 years. This is a top 25 team with 5 straight bowl wins, and they have 16 starters back off of a 9 win team. 1999 is probably the last time BYU beat a top 25 team. BC is strong on the road as well going 9-3 over the last 2 years while BYU has gone 4-8 @ home the last 2 seasons.

GL with your play and the whole season!

 

[Scott4USC]

swayne

Physically, BYU OL is just as big as BC. They are even older. I think BC has a better OL but I think BYU will be ok rushing the ball against BC. Especially since BC is starting 3 unproven defensive lineman. But BYU will be attacking BC more through the air and I think they will be successful in doing so. Especially since BC is starting 3 unproven players in the secondary. BYU prob. will pass to set up the run.

I think posters here are overlooking how pumped BYU will be against BC. There is little doubt in my mind BYU will be the more passionate team and the team taking this game more serious. BC might be pumped as well, but I said BYU will be the more focused team. If I am correct, it doesn't necessarily translate into a BYU cover but we all know passion is very important in CFB.

One advantage BC has is special teams. But playing at home really helps a special teams unit. Much easier to punt or make FG's at home vs the road.

BYU HC needs this game almost as much as Chuck Amato needs the Va Tech game. I'll post why I like NC ST. in the next post.

 

[swayne]

On Defense BC returns 7 starters from a team that allowed only 17ppg. They have their entire starting LB corp back, DE all american Mathias Kiwanuka, and evidently Tom O'Brien is confident enough in his secondary to move Will Blackmon to WR. They have 2 unproven guys on the DL not 3 Washington and Kiwanuka are both seniors. As for the secondary they return 2 starters and Silva, Tribble, and Anam are all far from unproven they all played significant minutes last year.

I don't understand how you can even make an educated guess at which team will be more pumped up and passionate. BC is a pre season top 25 team with a ton of returning starters off of a 9 win team I'm sure they dont want to start the year off with a loss.

Why does Bronco Mendenhall need this game? It's his first game ever as a head coach. Either way I don't see how it would matter it's not like he is strapping up and getting on the field.

 

[Scott4USC]

NC ST. :thumb:

The wolfpack should cover against V-Tech and maybe win outright. If the NC ST. ML goes up closer to gameday, I might put a unit on the ML as well.

There are 2 major reasons why I am confident in NC ST. Their defense and QB Vick.

I don't think Marcus Vick is very bright. There have been reports of Vick having trouble digesting the offense and I wouldn't be surprised if V-Tech goes to a 2 QB system. Vick is an unproven entity and should be rusty. He is also prob. over rated because of his last name. There is too much hype surrounding Vick and fans are asking too much for him to succeed on the road for the opening game of the season. Especially when you factor in the NC ST. defense he will be going against. Let me say it again. IT IS A ROAD GAME FOR V-TECH! I can only imagine how pumped the Wolfpack defense is to lay a number on Vick. Which is important because that means more intensity and focus in off field preparations. You would not prepare with the same intensity if you were facing LA MONROE but facing V-Tech and Vick will highly motivate you to prepare for this game.

The 2nd major reason for NC ST. is their defense. I don't care who NC ST. is playing, getting pts at home is good value (especially opening game of season) when you have a solid defense. They have one of the best front 7's in college football. As I have said many times, DL is the most important unit on the field.

HC Chuck Amato needs this game badly. That isn't a secret. I know he will throw everything he has into winning this game and starting the season 1-0. Some coaches play ultra conservative early on (BEAMER) and V-Tech will be breaking in a realtively new QB. I do not expect V-Tech to open things up. Back to Amato.

I read that Amato has imposed a no talk rule for his players to the media prior to the Hokie game, and whether this does any good or not, it emphasizes the importance he is placing on this game. This supports my opinion that Amato wants this game badly. He also has closed his practices to the media.

The under in this game might be a solid play since both teams return most of their defense, but NC State has huge advantage with their front 7.

On the offensive side of the ball the wolfpack return 7 starters. More importantly, I expect NC ST. QB Davis to play better than he did last year.

Originally $$$$ went with V-Tech and then lately it went back onto NC ST. I am hoping for another run of Hokie $$$ and I will take advantage of the situation and throw a unit on the Wolfpack ML.

Good luck to all wolfpack backers!

 

[The Judge]

BYU on defense uses highly sophisticated blitz packages and rotates players. BC and any other team outside of conf. play can't prepare for.

So now that I established the BYU defense and their unique style lets focus on BC defense.

I am not trying to be argumentative about your pick but you have not "established" anything about the BYU defense other than the fact that they use "highly sophistacated blitz packages". You also did not address my point about a depleted defense so I will repeat it.

Who are the Cougars going to blitz with and where is their "experience on defense"? BYU lost four of the big guns on defense to graduation leaving Brown and Walkenhorst (has not played since 2002) to try to pick up the slack at linebacker and the secondary is very suspect.

 

[Scott4USC]

The Judge

Sorry for overlooking your question or not answering it properly. I still may not have answered it properly but I will give it a shot.

As you know I am a USC fan and USC has played BYU the last 2 years. Home/away. 2 years ago the BYU defense caused ton of problems for USC, almost the entire game. That was partly due to the inexperience of Leinart and the offense. In year 2, Carroll commented on how hard it is to gameplan for, but he said he was going to spend half the off-season preparing for V-tech and half for BYU (since USC plays BYU early as well). USC went into BYU last year prepared by the best defensive coordinator in CFB, and USC still struggled for a half adjusting to the defensive style of BYU. I think Leinart even threw 3 INT's. I also have watched BYU play maybe 6-8 times the last 2 years outside of the 2 USC games.

Here is my point. BYU doesn't rely on talent but rather the system to get things done. With their system, other teams cannot emulate it in practice. I don't there are too many stars on this BYU defense (if any) but it is a defense that relies heavily on the system.

BYU has 6 returning starters on defense but more importantly BYU is a team full of mature players. Every year BYU gets players back from their morman mission. BYU's players on average are 2 years older than their opponents. Some of these BYU players are 24 and 25 years old!

HC Bronco Mendenhall runs a 3-3-5 defense and will rotate 7 linebackers all game long. (Remember, THIN AIR + BLISTERING HEAT) Rotating 7 linebackers all game means BYU can run their style of defense which is BLITZ, BLITZ, BLITZ! Its a numbers game and every player on the BYU defense will be fresh and running at full speed. I know BC has never seen a defense like this and it will confuse them. It confused the hell out of USC for 2 straight years and I am confident that USC has better coaches and better players.

Boston College doesn't know what they are getting themselves into with this game. BYU should win this game!

 

[gman2]

I am confident that USC has better coaches and better players.

usc having better players than boston college?
yes.

usc having better coaching than boston college?
:nono:

i dont have a real lean on this game. personally, i think boston college is far superior, but i dont llike the environment or the setup of this game.

but byu has had older players than everybody since....well, since the inception of the university. they've had older players than everyone the last few years and have still been garbage.

the talk about men vs. boys is nuts, considering the type of guys that are on boston college's roster. they're a running football team, always have been, always will be (as long as obrien is there). and their recruits reflect this style year in and out. boston college is one of the more physical teams out there.

if anything, i think their running game will get stronger as the game goes along. id be worried about byu's defense wearing down in the 2nd half, despite being acclimated to the environment.