Phil Steele's Preseason Rankings

[Scott4USC]

Today I received my power sweep. Here are some of Phile Steeles preseason rankings.

Phil Steele's preseason top 10

1. USC
2. LSU
3. Purdue
4. UL
5. Texas
6. Miami
7. Michigan
8. OU
9. Ohio St.
10. Georgia


Here are this years teams which one or more sets of Phil's power rating forecast a perfect season possibility for.......

USC
Texas
Purdue
OSU
Michigan
Miami
V-Tech
Florida St.
LSU
Utah
UL


Phil Steele's top 20 toughest schedules!

1. UNC
2. ND
3. Northwestern
4. Arizona
5. UCLA
6. Oregon
7. G-Tech
8. Arizona St.
9. USC
10. Oregon St.
11. Colorado
12. Washington
13. Illinois
14. Stanford
15. Texas
16. Clemson
17. Ohio St.
18. Oklahoma
19. Minnesota
20. Michigan St.

 

[gman2]

I know the SOS is skewed to make the power conference schedules look tougher while barely giving the mid-majors a passing thought, but relatively speaking, Ball State's schedule is almost unfair, lol. You want to talk about a team scheduling aggressively in non-conference?

Their 3 non-conference games:

at Iowa
at Auburn
at Boston College

Then a road trip to Northern Illinois in conference, and dates with Bowling Green and Toledo. And they don't even get a chance to play Buffalo. And their game with Western Michigan isn't even at home.

If they win more than 1 game this season it will be a minor miracle.

 

[Scott4USC]

gman2

Now if Ball State goes undefeated, and you easily can see they tried to schedule tough OOC opponents, then and only then would I argue for them to be in a BCS bowl game, maybe even BCS NC game. I need to see that they tried to schedule tough OOC opponents.Those are tough OOC opponents and all on the road. I respect Ball St. Otherwise I feel these non BCS teams have no argument. Fresno St. is another team from a non BCS conf. who routinely schedules tough OOC teams. If they do very well, I wouldn't mind them playing in a BCS bowl game. Hopefully not this year because that would mean them upsetting USC! :scared Which I am afraid of. Luckily USC doesn't open the season against FSU. They will be a dangerous team.

BTW, Steele has Ball St. with the #77 toughest SOS.

 

[volfan]

Can Phil spell Tennessee?
How are they not on one of those lists?

his toughest schedules are almost all pac 10, pass the pipe :weed: :jerkit:

 

[AU2001]

Tennessee's schedule is BRUTAL!

To leave them off any list of toughest schedules is a joke.

 

[oldschoolcapper]

volfan,

please don't question phil steele. he only speaks the truth. and specifically, he doesn't have a pac-10 bias because that would hurt his magazine sales in the east and south, right scott?

 

[AU2001]

What about Kentucky?

#14 Louisville
#11 Florida
#15 Auburn
#3 Tennessee
@ #13 Georgia

Any other teams with five top-15 teams on their schedule not on that list? I can't believe I'm actually giving this list a moment of my time. I will not waste any more time on whoever this moron Phil Steele is...

 

[TimmyE]

Preseason SOS rankings are worthless, more than preseason rankings themselves. However, here's a different look at preseason rankings I found on CBS sportsline.

Here's the link
By the way, USC is at 56 on this one. :shrug:


2005 Strength of Schedule
Rnk School Conf. Rating
1 North Carolina ACC 1.3893
1 Georgia Tech ACC 1.3893
3 West Virginia Big East 1.385
3 Rutgers Big East 1.385
5 Notre Dame Independent 1.380
6 Kentucky SEC 1.369
7 Syracuse Big East 1.320
8 South Florida Big East 1.293
9 Georgia SEC 1.287
10 Connecticut Big East 1.276
10 Pittsburgh Big East 1.276
12 Cincinnati Big East 1.258
13 Arizona Pac-10 1.2718
13 Stanford Pac-10 1.2718
15 South Carolina SEC 1.269
16 UCLA Pac-10 1.262
17 Arkansas SEC 1.260
18 Duke ACC 1.235
19 Baylor Big 12 1.229
20 Maryland ACC 1.226
21 Kansas Big 12 1.2208
21 Oklahoma State Big 12 1.2208
21 Texas A&M Big 12 1.2208
24 Ohio State Big Ten 1.213
25 Texas Tech Big 12 1.211
26 Illinois Big Ten 1.189
27 Florida SEC 1.178
28 Louisville Big East 1.030
29 LSU SEC 1.1697
30 Mississippi SEC 1.1697
31 Alabama SEC 1.1608
32 Kansas State Big 12 1.1565
33 Missouri Big 12 1.1565
34 Washington Pac-10 1.153
35 Oregon Pac-10 1.144
36 Colorado Big 12 1.1386
36 Iowa State Big 12 1.1386
36 Oklahoma Big 12 1.1386
36 Texas Big 12 1.1386
40 Washington State Pac-10 1.136
41 Virginia ACC 1.1356
42 Miami (Fla) ACC 1.1356
43 Mississippi State SEC 1.134
43 Vanderbilt SEC 1.134
45 Nebraska Big 12 1.129
46 NC State ACC 1.1178
46 Boston College ACC 1.1178
48 Temple Independent 1.101
49 Tennessee SEC 1.087
50 Penn State Big Ten 1.0861
50 Michigan Big Ten 1.0861
50 Northwestern Big Ten 1.0861
50 Purdue Big Ten 1.0861
54 Indiana Big Ten 1.0683
54 Wisconsin Big Ten 1.0683
56 Arizona State Pac-10 1.0449
56 Southern Cal Pac-10 1.0449
58 Florida State ACC 1.0445
59 Auburn SEC 1.042
60 Clemson ACC 1.0266
60 Virginia Tech ACC 1.0266
62 California Pac-10 1.018
63 Hawaii WAC 1.011
64 Wake Forest ACC 1.008
65 Army Independent 1.004
66 Air Force Mountain West .9857
66 TCU Conf. USA .9857
68 Fresno State WAC .9851
68 Utah State WAC .9851
70 Ball State MAC .9778
71 Michigan State Big Ten .9771
72 Iowa Big Ten .968
73 Minnesota Big Ten .959
74 Oregon State Pac-10 .944
75 Rice Conf. USA .927
76 San Diego State Mountain West .912
77 New Mexico State WAC .902
78 Colorado State Mountain West .894
79 Boise State WAC .893
80 BYU Mountain West .8767
80 Wyoming Mountain West .8767
82 Louisiana Tech WAC .867
83 Navy Independent .866
84 New Mexico Mountain West .8589
84 UNLV Mountain West .8589
86 Bowling Green MAC .8511
86 Ohio MAC .8511
88 Idaho WAC .8494
88 Nevada WAC .8494
90 San Jose State WAC .840
91 Kent State MAC .8332
91 Miami (Ohio) MAC .8332
93 Tulsa Conf. USA .818
94 Marshall Conf. USA .7734
94 Memphis Conf. USA .7734
94 Tulane Conf. USA .7734
94 UAB Conf. USA .7734
98 Utah Mountain West .767
99 Louisiana-Lafayette Sun Belt .7536
100 Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt .7535
101 Buffalo MAC .7421
102 Eastern Michigan MAC .7240
103 Western Michigan MAC .733
104 Akron MAC .7242
105 Northern Illinois MAC .7152
105 Toledo MAC .7152
107 Central Michigan MAC .706
108 East Carolina Conf. USA .6734
109 SMU Conf. USA .6734
109 UCF Conf. USA .6734
111 Southern Miss Conf. USA .6644
111 UTEP Conf. USA .6644
113 Florida Atlantic Sun Belt .6535
113 Middle Tennessee Sun Belt .6535
115 Houston Conf. USA .646
116 North Texas Sun Belt .6356
116 Troy Sun Belt .6356
118 Arkansas State Sun Belt .626
119 Florida International Sun Belt .617

 

[CWood97]

I respect Northcoast, but USC having the 9th toughest schedule? Gimme a break.

 

[Scott4USC]

I said and believe there is not exact science into calculating SOS or even power ratings. But what you do have control over is what variables you do calculate and what carries more weight.

The NCAA calculates SOS soley on WINS/LOSSES from previous years. They don't look who you play or where you played. That is flawed in every way you look at it.

Steele factors where a team plays and who a team plays. Pre-season SOS is obviously tougher to calculate and end of the season SOS has more validity.

It is very easy to find errors in anybody list of SOS. But you should focus on how a SOS is calculated. What variables does he use. If Steele puts more weight on ROAD GAME vs HOME GAMES, then that might explain why Kentucky doesn't have a very high SOS compared to other teams. IMO Kentucky has very tough opponents on their schedule but they get them all at home. MUCH easier to win at home vs the road. Like I said many times, it might be harder to beat a good team on the road vs playing a very good team at home. I think most coaches would rather play the very good team at home vs playing a good team on the road. Makes sense.

As for USC, they play 6 road games this year. That is a lot. 4/6 road games are against quality opponents. Many people think the 4 toughest opponents USC faces are on the road. That is not easy. Maybe not top 10 ranked/elite opponents in the country but 4 of USC's road games are teams that have talent to beat anybody in the country. Doesn't necessarily mean they will, but they have the horses to win at home against anybody (including USC).

Do I agree with his whole list? NO. Can I find errors? YES! But I do not find any errors in his calculations. He uses his power ratings and where a team plays to determine SOS. Remember, playing 6 solid teams (anywhere) is tougher than playing 2 elite teams @home and 2 solid teams with maybe 1 on the road. You must focus on the complete schedule of a team. Not just a few key games.

I read posters on MJ's who think there is no difference in beating a #70 ranked opponent vs #90 ranked opponent. NO DIFFERENCE! To me, that is absurd! I can't believe there are people who actually think that way. Not saying anybody posting in this thread has made that comment but I have read that many times at MJ's. To make things worse, I read people saying playing a #70 ranked opponent at home is no different than playing a #70 ranked opponent on the road. I have comments like that too!

 

[The Judge]

As for USC, . . . . 4/6 road games are against quality opponents.

No they are not. Although South Bend and Eugene are tough places to play, Notre Dame and Oregon are not "quality opponents".

Maybe not top 10 ranked/elite opponents in the country but 4 of USC's road games are teams that have talent to beat anybody in the country.

This is absolutely NOT true. I'll give you Cal and will stretch a bit to include Zona State in a group who would COMPETE with (not beat) any team in the country, but not the Irish or the Ducks. USC's schedule is realtively weak in my opinion.

 

[Scott4USC]

The Judge

What is your definition of a quality opponent? IMO, a quality opponent is a team that can compete with pretty much anybody in the country. Take any team in the country and make them play.........

@Oregon
@CAL
@Arizona St.
@ND

They have a realistic chance at losing. USC IMO is the best team in the country and I think USC has decent chance at losing any of those games. No doubt USC will be favored and should win, but these are QUALITY opponents. Especially playing on the ROAD!

HOME quality opponents USC plays are.......

Fresno St.
UCLA
Maybe Arkansas. (to bad QB graduated)

As of right now, I don't think any of these teams are "elite" teams (teams on USC's level) but they def. are quality teams. All these teams have a good shot in beating USC.

Didn't ASU beat Iowa? Did ND beat TN @TN? Didn't Fresno St. beat KSU @KSU?

Oregon wasn't afraid to play OU @OU. UCLA was not afraid to play OU @OU. ASU wasn't afraid to play @Iowa.

These teams listed compete with the best every year.

Last year CAL and UCLA competed with USC last year. ND competed with USC for a half @USC. I can't say the same for the BIG 12 champ and #2 team in the country in OU.

The list above are all quality opponents but the toughest games are on the road! Road games are always tougher to win vs home games.

Take a look at what USC has done to Auburn, OU, CO, Michigan, and Iowa and compare those results to USC results in Pac 10 play. USC had easier time beating those teams than many of the opponents in the Pac 10.

I'll say it again, I don't think any of the teams on USC's schedule are elite. USC doesn't play OSU, Texas, LSU, Miami, OU on their schedule. Not elite teams. But there are a ton of quality opponents and most of these quality opponents USC plays on the road. ROAD GAMES are so much tougher to win vs home games. Carroll has said he rather play a very good team at USC than go on the road and play a good team. I agree 100%. USC is playing a bunch of good teams on the road this year and USC is playing a total of 6 road games. That is not an easy schedule. Only delusional fans wouls say that. It is not the hardest schedule in the country but def. should be ranked top 30! That is in the top 30% of div. 1a.

Maybe you need to start respecting the Pac 10 more. I know last year many posters on MJ's predicted LSU to win by 30+ pts against a weak ass Pac 10 opponent in Oregon St. I remember that very well. The game was @LSU too. Interesting. Guess LSU needs Pac 10 kickers to miss 3 PATS and to score late 4th quarter drive to beat a weak ass Pac 10 opponent. We all know who got the last laugh after that game! (i am not accusing you of saying that, but my point is nobody respects the Pac 10 and that is flat out wrong, but because of that I have made $hit load of money betting on USC in BCS bowl games. Believe me, USC was talked about as one of those crappy weak a$$ pac 10 teams. I think it be fun to dig up old posts of all the posters who said that for 3 straight years against USC! Be funny.)

 

[CWood97]

6 road games means nothing when you don't play a single legitimate BCS caliber team all year.

Texas: OSU, OU
OU: Texas
Michigan: OSU and Iowa
Tennessee: UF, LSU
FSU: UF, Miami
UF: UGA, LSU, FSU
Miami: FSU and VT
VT: Miami
OSU: Texas and Michigan
Iowa: Michigan and OSU
LSU: Florida, Tennessee

Get the drift?

I'm not saying USC wouldn't beat any or all of those teams, but to say their schedule is tough is simply not true.

 

[Hokie Fan]

Believe me I dont like USC BUT until someone beats them Scott will always have the last laugh...
Judging from (lets face it ANY top 10 ten team would win ALL of USC,s road games) an easy schedule (Scott it is easy please admit that, other big time schools have tougher schedules OSU v Texas etc) no one will beat USC till the title game (at the Rose bowl this year..Home Game????) and I doubt any one will then...
BUT folks who bash Scott and his SC bias are going to have to wait till next year cause they aint losing this year( or pray for injuries and a big step up by a Cal or Oregon)...
And they did drill a good OU team last year....
I wish USC did schedule tougher than Fresno and Hawaii (hey Fresno did beat them in the 90's) b ut these schedules are done ages beforehand
Either way I dont see USC losing anytime this year unfortunatley.

 

[CWood97]

I don't care if Scott has the last laugh or not. USC is an incredible team, but saying they have a tough road this year simply isn't true.

 

[Hokie Fan]

CWood that was more for other people who bash him.
I said they have an easy road.. not a tough game on that schedule to me (they will be favored in all games so someone agrees with me)
Kinda takes the edge off the season when SC doesnt have a trip to Columbus or somewhere like most great teams do. (Texas, OU Fla, Miami etc)

 

[Coug LJ]

USC's biggest obstacle will be itself. That was certainly the case last year. ...STANFORD was beating the pants off of them last season, before caving in the second half. UCLA, a very mediocre team last year - a team my below average Washington State Cougars beat in L.A. a couple of weeks earlier, arguably outplayed USC at the end of the season.

There is no reason to believe this may not happen this year as well. Sure, on paper they are two touchdown favorites over anybody they play. When on they are a level better than anyone in football, as CWood, noted.

Last season, on my local, Pac-10 oriented site, I picked ASU to upset USC. Why not? ...ASU had DESTROYED Iowa. They were undefeated as well.

The game was over after the first snap. USC was up 42-0 before the half was over.

And let's not forget what they did to Oklahoma. An Oklahoma team that many thought would beat USC.

USC could put 40 pts on ANYONE in College Football. LSU, Ohio State, Texas, Tennessee, Auburn - ANYONE.

I was reading in one of the L.A. papers that Leinart accused Carroll of cheating for the Defense in scrimmages. ...Sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do, huh Pete?

Scott goes overboard, he has to win EVERY argument, but as CWood pointed out, he got the best hand in the deck. That's why I tell him to relax. In truth, he doesn't have to say a word.

As for USC's schedule, you can't bag a team that schedule's Notre Dame every year. Fresno State could easily be a Top Twenty-Five team this year. As for the Pac-10, it's obvious that many here just don't get the league. Scott probably doesn't help our cause with his overselling, but it should be the best it has been, from top to bottom, in a long, long time.

 

[The Judge]

Maybe you need to start respecting the Pac 10 more.

I think you have the market cornered on that.

To answer your question, my idea of a quality opponent is similar to your description however I disagree that USC?s schedule has more than two teams that qualify.

Bottom line is that USC's schedule is relatively weak and I am confident that it played big in Leinart's decision to play another year. The "strength" of USC's schedule will be exposed this season by the ease with which the Trojans blow through their average opponents this year. Notre Dame should offer little opposition as should Oregon. USC will beat AZ State by 17 or more and I hope Cal beats your team's ass like they did last year in a close game.

There are your "quality road opponents". Give me a break, USC's schedule is tailor made for a trip to Pasadena and no amount of your rhetoric is going to convince me otherwise. You are so far the only poster on this subject that is arguing this point. Is it even possible for you to look at this issue subjectively?

Tell Carroll to nut up and schedule some real competition next year and we won?t be having this discussion.

 

[Scott4USC]

Here is the problem and where I disagree with ALL of you. I never said USC had the toughest SOS. I never said USC has one of the "toughest" schedules in the country. I never implied that either. I said USC has a top 30 ranked SOS and is in the top 30% of SOS's. There has been NO argument suggesting USC doesn't have a top 30 ranked SOS. I am not trying to win an argument claiming USC has a top 10 ranked SOS.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE MEANS ALL THE OPPONENTS ON THE SCHEDULE!


CWood97 lists 11 very good teams who he thinks has tougher schedules. Maybe they do. But what was his argument? He only focused on the elite teams on the schedule. I said many times USC doesn't play any "elite" teams on their schedule. USC will lose out if you think SOS is based soley on elite teams played. I focus on ELITE TEAMS, ROAD GAMES, and EVERY TEAM!

I will think I will win every argument saying USC has a top 30 SOS. Steele has USC #9 (I think might be too high) and that cbs has USC #56 (I think is too low). I don't know how cbs calculates SOS but if it is not based on wins/losses and factors in h/a games, then it is legit IMO. Average the 2 and USC has a #32 ranked pre season SOS.

The year LSU beat USC everyone said USC played a $hit SOS. Guess what. USC was right smack behind LSU in the BCS SOS rankings. So you people are intentionally or unintentionally bias against USC's opponents.

6 road games!
4 road games against quality teams!
@Oregon, @CAL, @ASU, @ND :scared

I might argue that USC has the toughest road games in all of CFB. Who plays 6 road games this year? Who plays 4/6 road games against quality opponents?

OOC= @Hawaii, Arkansas, @ND, Fresno St.

That is a tough OOC schedule. No elite teams but at least of them are quality opponents and maybe 3 if ARKY steps up.

Fresno St. you people should start respecting. This team is LOADED this year and year in year out is dangerous to whoever they play. They always scheduled the toughest OOC play and always prove themselves to be a worthy opponent. FSU will be the #1 non BCS team in the country!

@ND is always tough, ask any team who is not afraid to travel and play there. Then you factor in that it is a rivalry game. Throw everything out the window.

@Hawaii is not easy to open the season on the road so far, but the opponent is not a quality opponent, especially with their QB gone.

Arkansas is a team loaded with experience. Only thing missing is their QB. If Arky finds a QB they might be a dangerous team this year in the SEC!

Then don't forget home game (which really isn't a home game) against UCLA. So I could argue 6 road games and 1 neutral game. BUt anyhow, UCLA is a quality opponent as well but USC will have least 65% of the fans. Again, it is a rivalry game, so throw everything out the window. Especially when UCLA has a lot of talent on the team this year. They just need good QB play to take them over the top.


Hokie Fan

I wish USC did schedule tougher than Fresno and Hawaii (hey Fresno did beat them in the 90's) b ut these schedules are done ages beforehand
Either way I dont see USC losing anytime this year unfortunatley.

Fresno St. was a last minute addition. USC was looking for elite opponents and NOBODY wants any part of USC. USC did come close to agreeing to play UL and USC very well knows that UL has a very dangerous team this year. USC wanted them. So it is not USC's fault if nobody wants to play but FSU is a quality team especially this year where they return almost everyone from last year. Pat Hill is an extremely under-rated HC. USC is def. in a no win situation with this game because east coast doesn't even know FSU exists.

USC has Nebraska, Ohio St., @ARKY all in the near future. Those teams can't back out! It is a done deal! I would like USC to try and add another SEC team, like LSU or FL or ACC FSU or Miami in addition to Nebraska, OSU. I don't care if it costs USC winning a NC playing such a tough schedule. I am just glad USC doesn't play div. 1aa schools and LA. Monroe div 1a types.

CWood97's team MICHIGAN pussed out against USC last year despite USC agreeing to play the BCA KICKOFF CLASSIC IN THE BIG HOUSE! V-Tech stepped up! Maybe that house isn't so big!

Thats the problem with CFB. There are only a few teams who don't care soley on wins/losses. They just want easy wins. USC vs V-Tech turned out to be a great game and glad USC played them.

 

[Coug LJ]

Judge:

Be fair, if ANY team in College Football had USC's OOC schedule they would not be criticized - Notre Dame, Fresno State, Arkansas and Hawaii.

Oh, yeah, there are tougher out there, but this is more than acceptable.

As for the league, I grant there are not any Top Ten teams outside of USC. Cal, ASU and Oregon all have a chance to be Top Twenty. History shows how difficult it is to get through the Pac-10 without a defeat. USC's last two defeats have come in the Pac-10.

Scott can be a handful, but USC doesn't duck opponents. They have plenty of tough teams down the road. Last year, they played Va. Tech which was essentially a road game.

As for the the Pac-10, put us on your schedule. We don't duck opponents, either. Washington State is so eager to play a tough OOC opponent they are playing @ Auburn next season with NO return date.