My Early Football Picks

gman2

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scott:

i understand you are 2,000-some miles away from the east coast or whatever, but you're not going to outcoach tom o'brien. ive certainly got all the respect in the world for carroll, but you need to understand that there are other coaches who are running solid programs in this country. the world does not start and end in los angeles, despite what you think.

question for you -- what school holds the longest current bowl winning streak in america?
 

Scott4USC

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gman2 said:
scott:

i understand you are 2,000-some miles away from the east coast or whatever, but you're not going to outcoach tom o'brien. ive certainly got all the respect in the world for carroll, but you need to understand that there are other coaches who are running solid programs in this country. the world does not start and end in los angeles, despite what you think.

In no way do I want to offend you because I respect you as a handicapper and as an honorable person. BUT this is absurd. I think O"Brien is a solid coach maybe even a very good coach. I don't think he is an elite coach. But your statement that USC might not have had a better coaching staff than BC is ridiculous.

Pete Carroll, IMO is the #1 coach in CFB but he has accomplished a lot more than O'Brien ever has or will. Carroll was a top 3 DC in the NFL and had #1 defenses. He is regarded as a genius on the defensive side of the ball by everybody in the NFL. That is why he earned a HC job at such a young age going from DC to HC in the NFL. That is tough to do especially at a young age. HE HAS EVERYBODYs respect! I am not even talking about what he accomplished at USC. Carroll has a lot more credibility than O'Brien. AND Carroll serves as USC's DC and that makes USC have the best DC in CFB and maybe the top 3 DC in all of football (NFL + CFB)

USC's OC was NORM CHOW and he was promoted to OC of the TITANS! He is considered the #1 OC in CFB and a top 3 OC in both (NFL + CFB)

USC's DL coach (ORGERON) was promoted to HC of OLE MISS! He was considered the #1 DL coach in all of CFB.


USC's LB coach (HOLT) was promoted to HC of IDAHO!


USC's OL coach (DAVIS) is now the OL/TE coach of MIAMI DOLPHINS!

USC's QB coach (SMITH) was promoted to OC for the JAGUARS! QB coach @USC to OC in the NFL!

USC's RB coach (POLA) was promoted to RB coach of BROWNS!

USC's other QB coach (SARK) was promoted to QB coach of RAIDERS!

TAKE BACK YOUR RIDICULOUS STATEMENT! All these coaches were with USC the last 2 years when USC played BYU! Show me what credibility the BC coaching "staff" has and why you would even attempt to put them on par with USC! :mj07:

Replacements for this season Carroll took an OL and DL coach from the NFL and made them OL and DL coaches for USC. Complete lateral moves. Show me a HC in CFB that gets NFL coaches to make lateral moves to the college level. This is unheard of in the history of CFB! Why? Because position coaches at USC get HC jobs. While at other Universities, position coaches get promoted to OC/DC in the college ranks. QB coach at USC gets promoted to OC of an NFL team!

Does the USC coaching staff the last 2 years need more credibility to change your opinion? :nooo:

This is why USC has a dynasty in the works. Carroll is recruiting the best players in the country and recruiting the best coaches to USC.

But I am sure there are some, i repeat "SOME" people who think O'Brien is on par with Carroll and maybe 1 or 2 who think O'Brien is better. I am sure there are "SOME" who think BC coaching staff is on par or better than the USC coaching staff. But I am confident nobody could make a logical argument that O'Brien is on par or better and BC staff is on par or better than the USC coaching staff. There is no evidence to support it.


question for you -- what school holds the longest current bowl winning streak in america?

BOSTON COLLEGE! :thumb:

BC is the only team to win a bowl game each of the last 5 years! :clap: That is impressive!
 
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gman2

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scott:

unlike some, im not going to get into a huge debate with you on this and drag it out.

there's nothing "ridiculous" about my statement, especially since it's a subjective opinion/statement in the first place. i never once said boston college has better coaches. nor did i even remotely imply that.

i dont care who gets promoted from usc and to where. theres no doubt they have a terrific staff.

but youre kidding yourself if your criteria for a great coaching staff is how many promotions they get.

all i know is that on saturday afternoons, a given team might have more talent than boston college, but they're not going to outwork or outcoach BC, and very few teams in the country are as disciplined as the eagles. and i couldnt give two sh1ts about their program. i just call it like i see it.

somehow you turned this into a bc vs. usc thing (not surprising) when all im saying is that teams might beat boston college in terms of talent or on field performance. but youre not going to outcoach or out-prepare o'brien.
 

gjn23

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gman:

you did imply that sc didn't have superior coaching to bc......as a pac-10 guy and arizona alum....i HATE SC....BUT they are run llike an nfl franchise, have talent everywhere and their coaching staff is unbelievable...far and away the best in NCAA football. Stoops was considered the best and SC outclassed, out-prepared and out coached Stoops and the Sooners last year. (not surprising to me as that was the biggest bet i've made in a while)

bc has a solid program and tom obrien is a good coach but he and his staff couldnt hold a candle to pete carrol and his staff.
 

gman2

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gjn/scott:

for some reason, my innocuous comment has lit another pac-10 blaze, which wasnt my intention.

all im saying is that boston college is one of the most well-prepared teams in the country week in and week out. they dont beat themselves. theyre physical. and theyre disciplined. and their current bowl streak speaks directly to that.

does usc have a better top to bottom coaching staff in terms of names and promotions? of course.

but that doesnt mean that boston college would be outcoached if they met up on the football field.

im not trying to debate semantics here. but anyone with football background has to know where im coming from.

for example- 99% of college football fans couldnt name more than one coach on virginia tech's staff.

but do you really think any team -- usc included -- is going to "outcoach" virginia tech?

no chance.

usc beat vtech last year (and would beat them again this year) for one reason -- they had better players. period. not because they had better coaches or were more prepared. youre not going to outcoach a frank beamer team.

usc is good for a lot of reasons. their roster is loaded with sick talent. they have terrific coaches. they have tradition. and hell, theyre trying recruit teenagers to come play in cal-i-freakin-fornia.

so theres a lot of times that usc is going to win on talent alone.
usc is very well-prepared in their own right. but that doesnt mean they 'outcoach' every team they play.
 

Scott4USC

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gjn23 I agree completely. I think your program has a winner in Stoops! Gman2 did imply BC coaching staff was on par or better than USC staff.


G-man2

but youre not going to outcoach or out-prepare o'brien.

:mj03:

Pete Carroll can get outcoached in a game. Anybody can be outcoached in a game. Tedford IMO has either outcoached Carroll or been on par with Carroll in USC games against CAL.

Anybody can have an opinion, but intelligent people support it. Of course saying BC staff is on par or better than USC's staff is a subjective opinion. SO AND SO can say TY WILLINGHAM is better coach than Carroll. Anybody can throw out an opinion. I explained why I feel USC has a better coaching staff. I can show you the results (3 BCS bowl wins and 2 straight NC's) and I can show you what the coaching staff has accomplished prior to coaching at USC and I can show you all the promotions. Me posting the promotions supports my opinion that USC has a better coaching staff. I don't think BAD coaches get promoted! Especially going from position coaches to HC jobs.

BYU will be better prepared than BC and BC will be outcoached. :) At least I am banking on it!
 
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swayne

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Still can't run the ball and thats against their own horrid D........

"BYU hasn't run the ball particularly well in fall practice. In Tuesday's scrimmage, the Cougars averaged 2.2 yards on 60 carries. Curtis Brown had 10 yards on nine carries. Fahu Tahi rushed for 16 yards in six attempts."


http://www.sltrib.com/sports/ci_2951585
 

The Judge

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Another day, another practice without a starting Brigham Young defensive back. Safety Spencer White missed Wednesday morning's practice after suffering a broken hand in Tuesday's full-contact scrimmage. A total of 11 defensive backs have missed practice time with various injuries.
 

gjn23

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if you dont think getting out-caoched has a direct impact on a game watch the tapes of arizona, the mackovic era....a total joke.....vs the tapes of almost the same team last year.....a complete 180 in attitude, preperation and all the other "intangibles"

players do win games, but in most cases the coaches recruited those players and coached them.....it's all part of "coaching"....."coaching" is also a MAJOR factor in handicapping games....there's a reason why ohio state could never cover a spread as a fav when they won the title...their coach.....

as far as sc goes....i'd love to be the team that breaks your winning streak (20 something???) but dont see it this year on the road (covering the spread will be a victory) BUT i can see us challenging you next year in tucson with a new qb and hopefully and entirely new backfield at sc......maybe the streak will be in the 30's then and it will be a program turning victory for us!

it's august...a guy can dream, right? :)
 

Scott4USC

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UCLA :thumb:

UCLA just lost their best DT Kevin Brown to an ankle injury. Out 6-8 weeks. :mad:

I am starting to get a little worried about this pick and I have 2units on it at -7. Reports from practices and scrimmages say UCLA doesn't look real strong. QB play isn't great and now they lost their best DT. This was a DL who wasn't very good last year stopping the run. :mad:

My main reasons for taking UCLA were simple. Mercedes Lewis, Maurice Drew, LB unit, and SDSU.

Lewis IMO is a top 5 TE in the country. Creates a major mismatch and this will be his year where he gets respected nationally. Pac 10 is loaded with TE's this year. He is very similar to Mike Williams but is just a tad slower. Reason he is a TE!

Drew is an awesome RB who blew up last year. Big time playmaker. Very short RB who is hard to tackle. Bruins are 2-deep at RB so they should have a solid rushing attack, especially against SDSU.

UCLA LB unit is the best in the Pac 10 and very strong. Havner is the #1 LB in the conf. and one of the best in the country.

SDSU only returns 4 starters on defense and their weakness is at LB. You need strong LB play to contain Lewis and Drew. UCLA loves to dink and dunk and to stop that $hit you need strong LB's.

SDSU should not have strong QB play in this game. That is a positive! I think SDSU will struggle their first half the season. There def. isn't a lot of optimism at SDSU.

My biggest concern is the UCLA QB. Drew Olson is going to start against SDSU and he wasn't anything special last year. I am hopeful last year was learning year and he will use that experience to his advantage. This is prob. the only reason he beat out (at least I think he has) Ben Olson who is their prized QB. All I need is Drew to be solid against a below average SDSU defense. He should get the job done and he knows if he doesn't he will lose his job fast!

UCLA is 10-2 ATS against SDSU. They obviously have their number. Last year UCLA did well against SDSU and other less talented opponents. This bodes well for me.

UCLA beat @Illinois by 18, @UW by 6, SDSU by 23, AZ by 20, Stanford by 21, Oregon by 8, losing by 2 to WSU.

Dorrel gets the job done against less talented teams. This will be UCLA's best team under coach Dorrell. I see no reason UCLA should win by more than 7, but the QB play is a ??? mark. I don't know what I am going to get. That is why I only put 2 units and not more, and with Brown injured and less than stellar practice reports, I am having some doubts. If I buy it back (thus having $100 loss), I will post it.

But if UCLA gets good QB play, the Bruins should easily win 31-15. Is that worth a gamble? If UCLA doesn't get good QB play, this game will be tight whether they cover or not.
 
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Scott4USC

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Adding 2 units UAB +24 -112 over TN. I got this line at Pinny 10min. ago and all my other sportsbooks seem to have UAB +23.5. So I had to pull the trigger now.

Another game I am looking at is Maryland over Navy. The thing that jumps out at me is Maryland returns 11 starters (6offense/5defense) while Navy only returns 6 starters (2offense/4defense).

MAJOR mismatch in experience. This game should have 50/50 crowd. But I have to look into it further but I am looking hard at this game. Will post if I make it a play.


Swayne and The Judge

First I want to thankyou for contributing to my thread with that article. Good info especially if I was not aware of the situation. However, I am not worried at all about the BYU defense. Especially since they will be going against an unproven QB and a QB who really has nobody to throw too. In addition, BC is not a pass first program.

I'll say it again. BOSTON COLLEGE HAS NO IDEA WHAT THEY ARE GETTING THEMSELVES INTO!


ageecee said:
"Blistering heat in Utah"

Give me a fawkin break Scott...

Ok, maybe I exaggerated a tad. But the weather should be 85 degrees but don't be surprised if it gets close to 90. Even at 85 degrees, it should be very difficult to play in with the combination of thin air. First 10 days of August it was in the 90's in Provo. I am hoping it gets in the 90's against BC! The game is set at the perfect time!
 
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swayne

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I'll say it again. BOSTON COLLEGE HAS NO IDEA WHAT THEY ARE GETTING THEMSELVES INTO!

Being a well coached team with a top 25 ranking, the longest current bowl winning streak, about 75% of their starters back, and a 9-3 road record the last two seasons...........I'm pretty sure they are aware that what they are getting themselves into is a game vs a team that hasn't beaten a top 25 team in 6 years, is 14-21 over the last three seasons, and 4-8 @ home in their last 12.
 

Scott4USC

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I never posted all the trends that "support" my selections. Here they are. I am not strictly a trend player but I always like to have trends that favor my propositions. So they did did carry some weight into my selections and obviously certain trends are more valid than others. Here they are. I also included 2 that really go against one of my picks! :cursin: (didn't want to post it but felt obligated) hmh

TRENDS

UCLA :thumb:

SDSU 1-11 ATS as home dogs of 7pts or greater.

UCLA is 10-1 ATS vs SDSU.

BYU :thumb:

*BC was -11 fav. @home vs WF 2 years ago and lost 32-28.

*BC was -18.5 fav. on road vs Ball St. last year and won 19-11.

*BYU was -3.5 fav. @home vs G-Tech 2 years ago and won 24-13.

*BYU was +6 underdogs @home vs ND last year and won 20-17.

BC is 1-6 ATS as road fav. in game 1.

BYU is 7-2 ATS last 9 home openers.

North Carolina St. :thumb:

V-Tech is 7-29 ATS as conf. fav. when Hokies score less than 30pts.

V-Tech is 10-2 ATS 1st road game of season.

V-Tech is 13-2 ATS as road favorites 7pts or less since 1992.
:mad:

UAB :thumb:

UAB is 8-0 ATS vs opponent with .700 win %.

UAB is 15-6 ATS in the month of Sept.

UAB is 28-14 ATS when underdog since 1992.

Memphis :thumb:

Home team in this series is 6-3 ATS in last 9 games. Memphis is the home team!

Memphis is 16-9 ATS vs SEC last 11 years.


GOOD LUCK!

I'll prob. be adding 1-3 more games but I am waiting for the lines to go in my favor. Which they currently are! The only game I am having doubts about is UCLA -7 over SDSU. I am confident with my other selections.
 
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tulah

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I love UCLA -7
I was @ the game last year.
SDSU was comletely overmatched.
Drew had a few long runs, 1 was a 50+yd TD
Havner took a INT to the house.
SDSU Def. was horrible & Off. couldn't do nothing with the ball.

Not that much has changed , so I see the same result. UCLA by 14 or more.

IMO UCLA will be a very good team this season!

I was in rosarito beach for spring break this year.
Most of the UCLA Bruins was there also.
I was having cocktails with RB Maurice Drew @ Senor Frogs.
I like where his heads at. They are a very focused squad this year.
I think they stand a good shot VS Oklahoma

GL
 
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taoist

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Scott4USC said:
I never posted all the trends that "support" my selections. Here they are. I am not strictly a trend player but I always like to have trends that favor my propositions.


...okay now, Scooter, post the ones that you left out that go against all of your picks. :rolleyes:


Remember, Mark Twain once said, "There are lies; there are damn lies, and then there are statistics." ;)


:)
 

TimmyE

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This will be the 21st matchup between UCLA and SDSU, and SDSU has yet to come away with a W.
 

Scott4USC

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Tulah

Glad to see you like UCLA as well. Reason I am having doubts is UCLA has suffered a ton of injuries in fall practice. The most serious injury to their best DT Kevin Brown. SDSU doesn't have a solid OL and Kevin Brown would have had no problem getting penetration. But as of right now, I am sticking with UCLA -7 but I may buy it back if I don't start seeing positive practice reports.

Timmy

Good stuff. I did not know that. Thanks.

taoist said:
...okay now, Scooter, post the ones that you left out that go against all of your picks. :rolleyes:
Remember, Mark Twain once said, "There are lies; there are damn lies, and then there are statistics." ;)

:)

Here is something I don't understand. Why do you think I should make arguments supporting the other side? WHY? I not only take the time to post my plays, but I post detailed analysis why I feel strong about that play. It is up to the reader to play or fade me but they know exactly where I stand. I am not going to spend extra time trying to make an argument for the other side. It is quote odd that you would try and antagonize me, someone who actually posts analysis, vs others who just post plays. There is nothing wrong just posting plays, but why the hell would someone try and antagonize a poster who actually does post analysis? If you think my plays/analysis is full if $hit, you do not have to open my threads and read them! Much less participate in them. Why are there so many negative posters at this site? I don't get it.

All in all, I do not know what you were trying to accomplush with your post. If someone asks me a question about why I like a play, or if they think I am wrong with my analysis, I always reply with an answer.
 
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