UCLA :thumb:
UCLA just lost their best DT Kevin Brown to an ankle injury. Out 6-8 weeks.
I am starting to get a little worried about this pick and I have 2units on it at -7. Reports from practices and scrimmages say UCLA doesn't look real strong. QB play isn't great and now they lost their best DT. This was a DL who wasn't very good last year stopping the run.
My main reasons for taking UCLA were simple. Mercedes Lewis, Maurice Drew, LB unit, and SDSU.
Lewis IMO is a top 5 TE in the country. Creates a major mismatch and this will be his year where he gets respected nationally. Pac 10 is loaded with TE's this year. He is very similar to Mike Williams but is just a tad slower. Reason he is a TE!
Drew is an awesome RB who blew up last year. Big time playmaker. Very short RB who is hard to tackle. Bruins are 2-deep at RB so they should have a solid rushing attack, especially against SDSU.
UCLA LB unit is the best in the Pac 10 and very strong. Havner is the #1 LB in the conf. and one of the best in the country.
SDSU only returns 4 starters on defense and their weakness is at LB. You need strong LB play to contain Lewis and Drew. UCLA loves to dink and dunk and to stop that $hit you need strong LB's.
SDSU should not have strong QB play in this game. That is a positive! I think SDSU will struggle their first half the season. There def. isn't a lot of optimism at SDSU.
My biggest concern is the UCLA QB. Drew Olson is going to start against SDSU and he wasn't anything special last year. I am hopeful last year was learning year and he will use that experience to his advantage. This is prob. the only reason he beat out (at least I think he has) Ben Olson who is their prized QB. All I need is Drew to be solid against a below average SDSU defense. He should get the job done and he knows if he doesn't he will lose his job fast!
UCLA is 10-2 ATS against SDSU. They obviously have their number. Last year UCLA did well against SDSU and other less talented opponents. This bodes well for me.
UCLA beat @Illinois by 18, @UW by 6, SDSU by 23, AZ by 20, Stanford by 21, Oregon by 8, losing by 2 to WSU.
Dorrel gets the job done against less talented teams. This will be UCLA's best team under coach Dorrell. I see no reason UCLA should win by more than 7, but the QB play is a ??? mark. I don't know what I am going to get. That is why I only put 2 units and not more, and with Brown injured and less than stellar practice reports, I am having some doubts. If I buy it back (thus having $100 loss), I will post it.
But if UCLA gets good QB play, the Bruins should easily win 31-15. Is that worth a gamble? If UCLA doesn't get good QB play, this game will be tight whether they cover or not.