Thursdays TRENDS.

[TJBELL]

Trends Thursday

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, August 25th

National League:

Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals, 1:05 EST
Brandon Claussen (L) vs. Livan Hernandez (R)

Cincinnati - 5-14 vs. N.L. team with OBP .315 or worse
Hernandez - 17-7 TY w/ total 7 to 8.5

Florida Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers, 2:05 EST
Ismael Valdez (R) vs. Doug Davis (L)

Valdez - 43-71 Away since '97
Davis - 14-6 Home L2 with toal 7 to 8.5

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, 7:05 EST
Matt Morris (R) vs. Dave Williams (L)

St. Louis - 3-11 TY on Thursdays
Williams - 12-6 TY w/ total 8.5 to 10

New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 EST
Pedro Martinez (R) vs. Javier Vazquez (R)

Mets - 40-28 TY vs. teams ave. less than 0.5 SB/game
Vazquez - 5-17 2nd half vs. teams outscoring opponents by .5 runs/game

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers, 10:10 EST
Aaron Cook (R) vs. Brad Penny (R)

Cook - 11-3 2nd half last 2 seasons
Penny - 25-12 Under last 2 with total 7 to 8.5

American League:

Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers, 1:05 EST
Rich Harden (R) vs. Mike Maroth (L)

Oakland - 16-6 Away 2nd half TY
Maroth - 14-5 Under last 2 with 5 or 6 days rest

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, 1:05 EST
Gustavo Chacin (L) vs. Shawn Chacon (R)

Toronto - 36-19 Under 2nd half vs. A.L. team with OBP .345 or better
Chacon - 28-13 Under vs. teams with winning record since '97

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, 1:10 EST
Jon Garland (R) vs. Carlos Silva (R)

Garland - 13-4 Under last 2 with total 7 to 8.5
Silva - 17-7 last 2 with 5 or 6 days rest

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, 2:05 EST
Jeff Harris (R) vs. Joaquin Benoit (R)

Seattle - 74-58 Over 2nd half last 2
Texas - 14-5 Over August TY

Anaheim Angels at Baltimore Orioles, 7:05 EST
John Lackey (R) vs. Rodrigo Lopez (R)

Lackey - 9-2 with 5 or 6 days rest TY
Baltimore - 11-24 TY having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6

Cleveland Indians at Tampa Bay Devil Rays, 7:15 EST
Cliff Lee (L) vs. Scott Kazmir (L)

Lee - 10-1 away TY with a total of 8.5 to 10
Tampa Bay - 18-38 TY as dog of +100 to +150

Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals, 8:10 EST
Curt Schilling (R) vs. Jose Lima (R)

Schilling - 25-12 Over as favorite last 2
K.C. - 44-34 Over vs. RHP TY


**Denotes Time Change
TSR = Team Start Record

 

[smilin]

thanks for these tj.

 

[TJBELL]

Hot pitchers
-- Claussen is 4-0, 3.24 in his last five starts.
-- Williams is 3-2, 3.38 in his last six starts.
-- Martinez has 1.29 RA in his last two starts, but no wins in his last five outings.
-- Penny is 1-0, 3.43 in his last three starts. Rockies won Cook's last four starts.

-- Maroth is 2-0, 2.35 in his last two starts.
-- Chacon is 2-1, 1.97 in five starts for Bronx.
-- Twins are 6-1 in Silva's last seven home starts.
-- Lackey is 4-0, 3.27 in his last seven starts.
-- Lee is 1-0, 0.60 in his last two starts. Kazmir is 4-1, 2.87 in his last seven starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Hernandez has 8.72 RA in his last four starts.
-- Valdes is 1-1, 5.79 in three starts for Florida. Davis is 1-2, 4.56 in his last eight starts.
-- Morris has 7.20 RA in his last six starts.
-- Vazquez is 1-3, 9.00 in his last five starts.


-- Zito is 0-2, 4.73 in his last two starts.
-- Chacin is 0-1, 4.58 in his last three starts, and is 0-2, 5.56 vs Bronx this season.
-- Lopez has 8.72 RA in his last four starts.
-- Garland is 1-3, 5.61 in his last four starts.
-- Harris lost only '05 start, allowing three runs in 5.2 IP in 3-1 loss at White Sox on August 7. Benoit is 0-2 in his last four starts, with a 5.95 RA.
-- Schilling makes first start since April 23; he was 1-2, 8.15 in his first three starts this year. Lima is 0-4, 5.87 in his last four starts.

Totals
-- Over is 6-1 in Claussen's last seven starts.
-- Under is 6-2 in last eight Florida road games.
-- Eight of last nine Pirate home games went over.
-- Five of last six Arizona home games went over total.
-- Five of last six Colorado road games went over.


-- Seven of last nine Tiger home games went over total.
-- Seven of last nine Bronx games stayed under the total
-- Under is 7-4 in last eleven Garland starts.
-- Under is 8-1 in Seattle's last nine road games.
-- Under is 9-4-2 in last fifteen Oriole games
-- Under is 8-3 in last eleven Kazmir starts.
-- Under is 6-1 in Lima's last seven starts.


Hot teams
-- Reds won eleven of their last thirteen road games.
-- Florida won seven of its last eleven games.
-- Cardinals are 11-6 in their last seventeen games.
-- Mets are 7-2 in their last nine games; they outscored Arizona 34-6 in first three games of this series.
-- Rockies are 8-6 in their last fourteen road games.


-- Detroit won five of six and eight of last ten games.
-- Bronx is 17-5 in their last twenty-two home games.
-- Twins won ten of their last thirteen games.
-- Indians won seven of their last nine games. Tampa Bay won six of its last eight games and nine of last 12.

Cold Teams
-- Nationals are 6-13 in their last nineteen home tilts.
-- Brewers are 5-8 in their last thirteen home games.
-- Pirates lost ten of last fifteen home games.
-- Arizona lost nine of their last eleven games.
-- Dodgers are 5-8 in their last thirteen home games.


-- A's lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- Blue Jays allowed 46 runs in losing five of last 6 tilts.
-- Orioles are 5-10 at home since All-Star break. Angels are 6-7 in their last thirteen road games.
-- Seattle is 4-14 in last eighteen road games. Texas is
3-12 in their last fifteen games.
-- Red Sox are 7-10 in their last seventeen road games. Royals are 3-20 in last 23 games, but won three of four.

Umpires
-- Over is 8-4-2 last fourteen Gibson games (Cin-Wsh)
-- Dogs are 8-7 in last 15 Vanover games. (Fla-Mil)
-- Dogs are 9-5 in last 14 Rapuano games. (StL-Pitt)
-- Favorite won last six McClelland games, with last four staying under the total. (NY-Az)
-- Under is 8-3 in last 11 Onora games. (Col-LA)


-- Visitor won five of last six Reed games. (A's-Det)
-- Dog is 10-5 in last fifteen Culbreth games, with last four staying under the total. (Tor-NY)
-- Under is 10-1-1 in last 12 Demuth games. (Chi-Min)
-- Over is 6-1-1 last eight Meals games. (LA-Blt)
-- Last four Emmel games stayed under total. (Sea-Tex)
-- Last three Poncino games went over total. (Cle-TB)
-- Favorite is 12-1 last 13 Bell games. (Bos-KC)

 

[TJBELL]

Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars, 8:00 ESTESPN
Atlanta - 16-8 ATS off a SU loss
Jacksonville - 5-1 Under vs. non-conference opponents


Falcons @ Jaguars-- Atlanta was outscored 51-0 in two summer road games last year; this is their first true away game of summer, excluding neutral Japan trip. Expect to see lot of Schaub, Detmer, while Jax may be fired up for rare national TV shot, even in preseason (think Saints in last week's similar spot). Garrard is decent backup QB for Jaguars, but if they go to #3 or lower, it is not good, with Gray/Hybl duo. Usually, teams try pretty hard in the third preseason game, but have to believe Atlanta will not want Vick to do too much in hostile enivronment

 

[TJBELL]

thanks for these tj.

No Problem!!!

 

[TJBELL]

ST LOUIS (80 - 47) at PITTSBURGH (54 - 73) - 7:05 PM
MATT MORRIS (R) vs. DAVID WILLIAMS (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 3-11 (-15.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday this season.
ST LOUIS is 39-39 (-18.2 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
PITTSBURGH is 35-36 (+6.7 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
PITTSBURGH is 29-24 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 191-112 (+32.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 58-33 (+16.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 39-22 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
ST LOUIS is 29-16 (+12.1 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 37-17 (+12.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
ST LOUIS is 186-108 (+32.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 53-25 (+16.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 9-3 (+4.2 Units) against PITTSBURGH this season
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.5 Units, Under=-0.8 Units)



MATT MORRIS vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
MORRIS is 9-5 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 2.51 and a WHIP of 1.245.
His team's record is 9-6 (-1.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-9. (-3.6 units)



DAVID WILLIAMS vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
WILLIAMS is 2-3 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.09 and a WHIP of 0.938.
His team's record is 2-3 (+0.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-2. (+0.6 units)




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NY METS (66 - 60) at ARIZONA (58 - 70) - 9:40 PM
PEDRO MARTINEZ (R) vs. JAVIER VAZQUEZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY METS are 1-13 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
NY METS are 16-27 (-13.1 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
NY METS are 19-38 (-18.2 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
MARTINEZ is 55-40 (-23.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MARTINEZ is 25-27 (-25.1 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NY METS are 28-14 (+14.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 66-115 (-48.1 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 30-55 (-31.1 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 110-181 (-70.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 11-24 (-13.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
ARIZONA is 28-35 (-14.6 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
ARIZONA is 2-11 (-10.9 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
ARIZONA is 14-33 (-19.3 Units) against the money line in August games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 28-35 (-14.6 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field this season.
ARIZONA is 40-56 (-17.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ARIZONA is 17-27 (-13.5 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
ARIZONA is 6-16 (-14.2 Units) against the money line in home games after allowing 10 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
NY METS is 5-1 (+3.8 Units) against ARIZONA this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.9 Units)



PEDRO MARTINEZ vs. ARIZONA since 1997
MARTINEZ is 1-1 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 2.57 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)



JAVIER VAZQUEZ vs. NY METS since 1997
VAZQUEZ is 8-6 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 3.28 and a WHIP of 1.102.
His team's record is 12-8 (+3.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-11. (-4.9 units)




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


COLORADO (48 - 78) at LOS ANGELES (57 - 69) - 10:10 PM
AARON COOK (R) vs. BRAD PENNY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 47-78 (-18.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
COLORADO is 14-43 (-18.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
COLORADO is 47-78 (-18.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
COLORADO is 73-128 (-32.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 13-33 (-19.9 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
COLORADO is 15-43 (-23.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 115-102 (+10.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 78-63 (+15.1 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 73-51 (+17.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 57-69 (-15.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
LOS ANGELES is 57-69 (-15.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 52-47 (-35.0 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -175 to -200 since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 7-5 (+0.9 Units) against COLORADO this season
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.7 Units)



AARON COOK vs. LOS ANGELES since 1997
COOK is 2-1 when starting against LOS ANGELES with an ERA of 2.70 and a WHIP of 1.425.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-3. (-3.3 units)



BRAD PENNY vs. COLORADO since 1997
PENNY is 5-1 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 2.31 and a WHIP of 1.097.
His team's record is 7-2 (+5.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-6. (-3.4 units)

 

[TJBELL]

ANAHEIM (73 - 53) at BALTIMORE (60 - 65) - 7:05 PM
JOHN LACKEY (R) vs. RODRIGO LOPEZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LOPEZ is 38-28 (+18.3 Units) against the money line in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
ANAHEIM is 74-53 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ANAHEIM is 36-25 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
ANAHEIM is 70-47 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ANAHEIM is 56-34 (+12.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ANAHEIM is 55-34 (+14.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ANAHEIM is 19-6 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
ANAHEIM is 21-4 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
LACKEY is 9-3 (+7.9 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
BALTIMORE is 53-57 (-10.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 39-43 (-8.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BALTIMORE is 39-45 (-10.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
BALTIMORE is 27-37 (-11.7 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
BALTIMORE is 5-14 (-10.2 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.
BALTIMORE is 9-18 (-11.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BALTIMORE is 59-66 (-14.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 32-32 (-10.2 Units) against the money line in home games this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
ANAHEIM is 4-1 (+2.6 Units) against BALTIMORE this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.8 Units)



JOHN LACKEY vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
LACKEY is 3-1 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 5.09 and a WHIP of 1.652.
His team's record is 3-1 (+1.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+2.0 units)



RODRIGO LOPEZ vs. ANAHEIM since 1997
LOPEZ is 4-1 when starting against ANAHEIM with an ERA of 1.99 and a WHIP of 1.008.
His team's record is 4-2 (+3.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-5. (-4.4 units)




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


CLEVELAND (70 - 57) at TAMPA BAY (52 - 75) - 7:15 PM
CLIFTON LEE (L) vs. SCOTT KAZMIR (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 79-96 (-38.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday since 1997.
TAMPA BAY is 29-24 (+16.8 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
TAMPA BAY is 15-11 (+13.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
TAMPA BAY is 123-166 (+0.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 34-31 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 24-19 (+9.5 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
TAMPA BAY is 34-34 (+8.9 Units) against the money line in games played in a dome this season.
TAMPA BAY is 23-16 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 37-38 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in games played on artificial turf this season.
KAZMIR is 8-3 (+8.1 Units) against the money line after a win this season. (Team's Record)
KAZMIR is 5-0 (+7.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)
CLEVELAND is 38-26 (+16.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
CLEVELAND is 48-33 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CLEVELAND is 17-10 (+9.7 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss this season.
CLEVELAND is 18-5 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
CLEVELAND is 23-9 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 69-57 (+5.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LEE is 17-7 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
LEE is 22-11 (+11.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LEE is 12-2 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
LEE is 13-4 (+11.2 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LEE is 25-15 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LEE is 11-2 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)


Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 4-2 (+4.6 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.9 Units)



CLIFTON LEE vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
LEE is 1-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 2.73 and a WHIP of 1.045.
His team's record is 1-3 (-3.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-2. (-0.2 units)



SCOTT KAZMIR vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
KAZMIR is 0-0 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BOSTON (72 - 52) at KANSAS CITY (41 - 83) - 8:10 PM
CURT SCHILLING (R) vs. JOSE LIMA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 13-15 (-18.1 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -175 or more over the last 2 seasons.
LIMA is 34-29 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
LIMA is 19-8 (+15.3 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LIMA is 25-21 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LIMA is 20-16 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LIMA is 9-4 (+9.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BOSTON is 67-43 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
KANSAS CITY is 41-82 (-16.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 19-43 (-14.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
KANSAS CITY is 63-134 (-45.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 4-1 (+1.5 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.2 Units)



CURT SCHILLING vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
SCHILLING is 2-0 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP of 0.750.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)



JOSE LIMA vs. BOSTON since 1997
LIMA is 0-1 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 7.45 and a WHIP of 1.655.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)