Question: How much do NFL preseason lines and totals change now that the starters are playing more?
Answer: The obvious changes will be in the totals. Look for the over/under lines to go up now that the starters are putting in more time. As for the sides, look for the lines to more closely resemble the regular season lines as opposed to the numbers in the first two weeks of the preseason. But since the starters won?t play deep into the game, the favorites won?t be as high as in week 1.
Watch out for Week 4 in the preseason, though. Some of the coaches will want their starters to play considerably longer while others will limit their playing time.
Tony George: "The lines are sharper and carry more meaning. If a handicapper has done his homework during Weeks 1 and 2, Week 3 provides more tangible items to handicap, and more realistic lines to work with.It`s much less of a guessing game."
Steve Merril: "The lines begin to resemble more of a regular season line as each team usually plays their starters into the third quarter. However, backups still decide these games and oddsmakers and bettors must be careful not to overreact towards the better team.
"Sometimes the best way to play these matchups is on the first half line as both teams usually play their starters the entire first half in Game 3."
Dave Malinsky: "Not necessarily ? it can just as often be a reflection of who was behind the money. There are some bettors that carry strong reputations and the books will respect their opinions to the point at which the line will generally move when they make a play. Meanwhile there are purely recreational bettors that might put significantly more money down on a game, and it might not cause a line to move at all.
Question: Are line moves always indicative of the amount of action placed on a particular side?
Answer: Not always, but say around 90 percent of the time, especially in the NFL. In the colleges we see ?air moves? (line moves without money), but it normally takes money to move an NFL number unless there?s a major injury.
Question: How much money on one side would it take to move the average regular season NFL game at a respectable Las Vegas sportsbook?
Answer: Well, that varies. Early in the week maybe $10,000 would move a number by a half-point. Later in the week, and certainly on game day, closer to $20,000 or perhaps as much as $50,000 would do it depending on the game, the early action or if there?s considerable jeopardy in live parlays (or parlay cards) falling to one side.
Talking about ?parlay jeopardy,? the books almost always find themselves in considerable jeopardy on an isolated game, normally the Sunday night and Monday night games. There?s no telling how much it will take take to shift the number in that situation on the side that they need.
Of course, there are books that take considerably higher amounts before moving the number, especially from an out- of-town hgh roller in the casino. In that case we may be looking at $100,000 or higher.
Question: Can you explain how middling works? How does this style of betting impact oddsmakers?
Answer: First of all, middling has zero effect on an oddsmaker. Secondly, it?s basically a thing of the past.
But let?s go back a very few years ago when there were a few groups of ?middlers? roaming the books of Las Vegas. Each of these groups hired handicappers and as the lines were posted, (and the lotteries started but that?s another story), these groups would bet the way their handicappers thought the numbers would actually move. Later, when they thought they had a decent middle, they would bet back the opposite side and hope for the game to fall. As we all know, the magic number is three and finding both sides of the three was always attractive.
Unfortunately the trend now is to be a ?follower? and not a ?middler? so we rarely see two-way action on a game. Don?t get me wrong - there still may be a difference of opinion on a few games where there is some buy back, it?s just nowhere near the same as before.
Question: When NFL teams are battling over contracts with key players, will their early season lines be affected?
Answer: Not really. Most of the players respect one another?s decisions.
However, in a case like Terrell Owens where he signs a huge long term contract one year, has a terrific season and then demands to renegotiate his contract and alienates his teammates, there will be an adjustment.
I wonder how any player - let alone the caliber of Owens - would react if a team decided to renegotiate a player`s contract after he had a poor year.
Question: Once football season starts, do MLB lines become `softer` because so much time is being devoted to football by oddsmakers?
Answer: This is a tough one. I don?t really believe that the odds are softer when in fact, the books don?t normally do as well in baseball in September as in the previous months.
I look at it this way: The public bets on the teams that need to win in September, no matter the price, and those teams usually get the money. But I may be a bit protective here.
"We have found (MLB lines to be softer) many times in the past," offers Malinsky. "The oddsmakers get caught in a vise in September, in that not only is their time limited, but it is also the most precarious time of the baseball season to be making lines. With so many new faces in the lineup there is an awful lot for them to keep up with, and yet at the same time the baseball handle is dropping, so their attention span is properly geared more towards football.
"The savvy handicapper can do very well with September baseball."
Not every handicapper agrees.
"MLB lines are pretty solid by September as the oddsmakers have five full months of games and an incredibly large sample size which leads to very strong and accurate power ratings," says Merril. "However, there are situations where oddsmakers overlook young prospects which are called up from the minors and might fly a bit under the radar."
Question: Is there such thing as a `trap line`? That is to say, do oddsmakers ever set lines they think will suck the public into one side when they feel the other side is going to win?
Answer: Wow, should I take this as a compliment? So you think we oddsmakers know the winners in advance?
I remember when I had the opportunity to have a few conversations with the legendary Bob Martin, and one thing comes to mind. Bob used to tell me he could never beat his own numbers. Even when he thought that he made a soft number, he would rarely be on the right side.
So perhaps a better way to look at this is that we normally shade a number towards a hot team or a team that has been getting the money consistently like the run the Chargers had last season when they covered 12 out of 13 weeks and pushed the other. You may find that we also shade towards other public teams like the Patriots, Colts and the Eagles.
As crazy as it may seem, we do put out a bad number occasionally and still get there. Thus that so called ?trap? wasn?t intentional.
Professional bettors tend to agree with me on this one.
"All lines for the vast majority are based on public perception, first and foremost," says Covers Expert Tony George. "My advice on this: When it looks to good to be true, against your better judgment, bet the other way. You`ll hit 80 percent of those plays."
"The (trap line) is one of the bigger myths in sports betting," says Merril. "Oddsmakers theoretically want to create balanced action and a trap line would defeat this purpose as most people would line up on the same side.
"Oddsmakers are also forced to post an accurate line based on power ratings with adjustments for current form and injuries. Otherwise professional bettors would pick them apart. Over the years, I always find it humorous when a recreational player feels a game is a trap line, especially since I usually like the other side anyway and feel the line is exactly right based on power ratings and current situations."
Says Malinsky: "When we find someone that is actually smart enough to know who is going to win, we just might try that some day. Seriously, though, while we often hear bettors? talk of such things as ?traps?, it is only a reflection of their own take on a particular game. There is no such thing as a trap, and if a game appears that way to you it just means to take a closer look ? perhaps you missed something in your analysis the first time around."
Keith Glantz is a professional oddsmaker and handicapper. He`s been setting some of the sharpest lines in the sports betting industry for over 25 years.
Answer: The obvious changes will be in the totals. Look for the over/under lines to go up now that the starters are putting in more time. As for the sides, look for the lines to more closely resemble the regular season lines as opposed to the numbers in the first two weeks of the preseason. But since the starters won?t play deep into the game, the favorites won?t be as high as in week 1.
Watch out for Week 4 in the preseason, though. Some of the coaches will want their starters to play considerably longer while others will limit their playing time.
Tony George: "The lines are sharper and carry more meaning. If a handicapper has done his homework during Weeks 1 and 2, Week 3 provides more tangible items to handicap, and more realistic lines to work with.It`s much less of a guessing game."
Steve Merril: "The lines begin to resemble more of a regular season line as each team usually plays their starters into the third quarter. However, backups still decide these games and oddsmakers and bettors must be careful not to overreact towards the better team.
"Sometimes the best way to play these matchups is on the first half line as both teams usually play their starters the entire first half in Game 3."
Dave Malinsky: "Not necessarily ? it can just as often be a reflection of who was behind the money. There are some bettors that carry strong reputations and the books will respect their opinions to the point at which the line will generally move when they make a play. Meanwhile there are purely recreational bettors that might put significantly more money down on a game, and it might not cause a line to move at all.
Question: Are line moves always indicative of the amount of action placed on a particular side?
Answer: Not always, but say around 90 percent of the time, especially in the NFL. In the colleges we see ?air moves? (line moves without money), but it normally takes money to move an NFL number unless there?s a major injury.
Question: How much money on one side would it take to move the average regular season NFL game at a respectable Las Vegas sportsbook?
Answer: Well, that varies. Early in the week maybe $10,000 would move a number by a half-point. Later in the week, and certainly on game day, closer to $20,000 or perhaps as much as $50,000 would do it depending on the game, the early action or if there?s considerable jeopardy in live parlays (or parlay cards) falling to one side.
Talking about ?parlay jeopardy,? the books almost always find themselves in considerable jeopardy on an isolated game, normally the Sunday night and Monday night games. There?s no telling how much it will take take to shift the number in that situation on the side that they need.
Of course, there are books that take considerably higher amounts before moving the number, especially from an out- of-town hgh roller in the casino. In that case we may be looking at $100,000 or higher.
Question: Can you explain how middling works? How does this style of betting impact oddsmakers?
Answer: First of all, middling has zero effect on an oddsmaker. Secondly, it?s basically a thing of the past.
But let?s go back a very few years ago when there were a few groups of ?middlers? roaming the books of Las Vegas. Each of these groups hired handicappers and as the lines were posted, (and the lotteries started but that?s another story), these groups would bet the way their handicappers thought the numbers would actually move. Later, when they thought they had a decent middle, they would bet back the opposite side and hope for the game to fall. As we all know, the magic number is three and finding both sides of the three was always attractive.
Unfortunately the trend now is to be a ?follower? and not a ?middler? so we rarely see two-way action on a game. Don?t get me wrong - there still may be a difference of opinion on a few games where there is some buy back, it?s just nowhere near the same as before.
Question: When NFL teams are battling over contracts with key players, will their early season lines be affected?
Answer: Not really. Most of the players respect one another?s decisions.
However, in a case like Terrell Owens where he signs a huge long term contract one year, has a terrific season and then demands to renegotiate his contract and alienates his teammates, there will be an adjustment.
I wonder how any player - let alone the caliber of Owens - would react if a team decided to renegotiate a player`s contract after he had a poor year.
Question: Once football season starts, do MLB lines become `softer` because so much time is being devoted to football by oddsmakers?
Answer: This is a tough one. I don?t really believe that the odds are softer when in fact, the books don?t normally do as well in baseball in September as in the previous months.
I look at it this way: The public bets on the teams that need to win in September, no matter the price, and those teams usually get the money. But I may be a bit protective here.
"We have found (MLB lines to be softer) many times in the past," offers Malinsky. "The oddsmakers get caught in a vise in September, in that not only is their time limited, but it is also the most precarious time of the baseball season to be making lines. With so many new faces in the lineup there is an awful lot for them to keep up with, and yet at the same time the baseball handle is dropping, so their attention span is properly geared more towards football.
"The savvy handicapper can do very well with September baseball."
Not every handicapper agrees.
"MLB lines are pretty solid by September as the oddsmakers have five full months of games and an incredibly large sample size which leads to very strong and accurate power ratings," says Merril. "However, there are situations where oddsmakers overlook young prospects which are called up from the minors and might fly a bit under the radar."
Question: Is there such thing as a `trap line`? That is to say, do oddsmakers ever set lines they think will suck the public into one side when they feel the other side is going to win?
Answer: Wow, should I take this as a compliment? So you think we oddsmakers know the winners in advance?
I remember when I had the opportunity to have a few conversations with the legendary Bob Martin, and one thing comes to mind. Bob used to tell me he could never beat his own numbers. Even when he thought that he made a soft number, he would rarely be on the right side.
So perhaps a better way to look at this is that we normally shade a number towards a hot team or a team that has been getting the money consistently like the run the Chargers had last season when they covered 12 out of 13 weeks and pushed the other. You may find that we also shade towards other public teams like the Patriots, Colts and the Eagles.
As crazy as it may seem, we do put out a bad number occasionally and still get there. Thus that so called ?trap? wasn?t intentional.
Professional bettors tend to agree with me on this one.
"All lines for the vast majority are based on public perception, first and foremost," says Covers Expert Tony George. "My advice on this: When it looks to good to be true, against your better judgment, bet the other way. You`ll hit 80 percent of those plays."
"The (trap line) is one of the bigger myths in sports betting," says Merril. "Oddsmakers theoretically want to create balanced action and a trap line would defeat this purpose as most people would line up on the same side.
"Oddsmakers are also forced to post an accurate line based on power ratings with adjustments for current form and injuries. Otherwise professional bettors would pick them apart. Over the years, I always find it humorous when a recreational player feels a game is a trap line, especially since I usually like the other side anyway and feel the line is exactly right based on power ratings and current situations."
Says Malinsky: "When we find someone that is actually smart enough to know who is going to win, we just might try that some day. Seriously, though, while we often hear bettors? talk of such things as ?traps?, it is only a reflection of their own take on a particular game. There is no such thing as a trap, and if a game appears that way to you it just means to take a closer look ? perhaps you missed something in your analysis the first time around."
Keith Glantz is a professional oddsmaker and handicapper. He`s been setting some of the sharpest lines in the sports betting industry for over 25 years.
