Why no USC v. Hawaii write-up, Scott?

[hm23]

It seems you would want to at least analyze this game for our edification

How is SC looking in camp?

You have to believe that the coaching changes will have some negative effect, however minor.

I've heard that the Trojan O is looking really good. Leinart looking sharp...even if I still feel he is a bit overrated. Remember when I said I though WR Smith was gonna be their next star over Lewis. What's the deal w/ Lewis anyway - will he even see many passes w/ Jarrett and the frosh Turner ahead of him.

The only shot Hawaii has in keeping it respectable would be to attack the perimeter of the Trojan D, specifically the OLB's and CB's - as the DE's will be solid.

Hawaii's problem seems to be that their off. skill positions are still mostly undecided. Apparently, QB Brennan has the makings of a good one, but SB Ilaoa is gimpy and in poor shape. I don't think they can exploit those questions on the USC D.

Word is that UH D is undergoing a face-lift with Glanville as their new DC - not just due to the shuffling of the staff but a change in philosophy.

They have some promising DE's, but their interior is still ??? Hell, they had no shot at slowing down anyone last year. LB's are not good - TE Byrd and the backs should pile up the rcvg. yardage - and top cover CB Patton may not play in this game. The secondary is also suspect in coverage outside of Patton.

Spec. Teams...we know what SC has. Bush will have at least one return for six. Warriors' PK is suspect...as well as their coverage units.

USC will dominate but will they cover?

 

[TimmyE]

I don't think so, hawaii will be throwing all day and put up some points, i'm hoping at least 28, and I see USC winning by a few tds after playing it safe with a big lead.

And this will setup the spread perfectly for their next game, when they play arkansas at home and they're only favored by 25 or so. Thats when you load up on the trojans.

 

[The Judge]

While I won't pretend to have the inside scoop on USC that Scott "seems" to have, it has been reported that Pete Carroll has stated publicly that he will play his 2nd string as much as possible against the Warriors. If the Trojans are up big at the half it may be a stretch to cover the number.

 

[DIRTY Diapers]

I love Hawaii and the points

 

[TimmyE]

I never heard the inside scoop before, but I figured they would be pulling leinart and others by half like they did in several games last year, which could definitely lead to a backdoor. I think they'll be up close to 30 pts (either more or less) before Hawaii adds some more points at the end against all backups.

 

[pt1gard]

might wanna check halftime score last time usc went to HAW ... i was at the game

 

[gridman]

Here's a local perpective on the game. USC is loaded and certainly deserves to be a 34 pt. favorite. Hawaii lost all its skill people on offense but its O line is experienced and should be above average. Hawaii has never played Defense under Jones but word out is that Glanville has installed a very upbeat attitude and will play more of an attacking defense. However, one has to question if Hawaii has the right defensive personnel. I believe USC's 2nd and 3rd stringers could easily start for any team in the Nation. Thusly, I would say I smell a romper party but only if USC comes to play. Now being local guy, I can only dream about a Hawaii win and I'm sure I'm just like any other hometowner across the nation. No matter how bad the odds, I'm gonna back the home team. Remember - "Any team can be beaten on any given day". And here is my X factors that could possibly lead to a Hawaii win. 1) USC might come to town over confident and looking for a vacation trip. 2) Hawaii's players always gets up for "big name teams" 3) USC's coaching changes might affect their playcalling - possibly Chow's departure could hurt them more than advertised 4) The Hawaii heat/weather just might affect the USC players 5) Some of USC's new personnel might need added time to adjust. Ahhhh heck! I'm only dreamin' USC should romp!

 

[pt1gard]

one thing about LA teams, they've seen the beach

 

[Blackman]

However, one has to question if Hawaii has the right defensive personnel. I believe USC's 2nd and 3rd stringers could easily start for any team in the Nation. !

Don't know about any team, but you beat me to my overall point. What makes you guys think the USC 2nd string will open up for a backdoor? I'll take the Trojan backups against a very green Hawaii squad any day of the week.

I hate heavy chalk like that, so I won't be playing this game, but I don't think Hawaii is a strong side to play either. Too many question marks to make a strong wager.

 

[bej0101]

trojans 70/24

 

[ferdville]

Way too many points to lay, not that Trojans won't cover if they want. I don't think that even Scott will lay the wood here. There will be far better opportunities than this one down the road.

 

[Scott4USC]

I have no problem sharing my thoughts about the USC/Hawaii game. The reason I didn?t post a write-up is because I am not making a play on it. I always look at the USC game first when the lines come out and handicap it because I already done my handicapping with USC. I just skimmed over all the posts in this thread, so I apologize in advance if I repeat what someone else already stated. I could go into detail unit vs unit, but then I be writing a book, if it isn't already! So I?ll start with what I got on Hawaii.

Hawaii returns 5 on offense and 7 on defense. Not bad but look closer. 3/5 returning offensive starters are on the OL. Hawaii is very unproven at the skill positions on offense. However, the 3 returning starters on the OL is EXCELLENT! NFL prospects. USC will not dominate Hawaii at the LOS. Take a look at the skill positions offensively.

*Hawaii lost their 2 leading rushers. I think the starting RB is 240 pounds. I think that is a disadvantage against USC. Why? This will be Pete Carroll?s ?fastest? defense at USC.

*Lost their #1 QB! Not much experience for the Hawaii QB?s. Not good if you open your season against a Pete Carroll style defense.

*Hawaii lost 4/5 leading reception leaders. NOT GOOD! #1, #3, #4, and #5 to be exact. Chad Owens was Hawaii?s #1 WR last year and he was very good! He will be missed.

*Hawaii also lost their kicker.

Good news is this should be the best Hawaii defense in a long time returning 7 starters. Strength of the Hawaii defense is their front 7 and weakness is their secondary. Weakness is in the secondary spells trouble against USC. Remember, USC?s best WR (Jarret) is 6.5 with decent speed. USC also will be playing true frosh WR (Turner) and he is 6.7. These Hawaii DB?s are in trouble. USC has experience and major mismatches at WR. Oh shucks, I forgot to talk about Reggies Bush (RB/WR), TE Byrd, FB Hancock, and even RB Lendale White. All are passing threats and USC has been using White a lot more in the passing game (something Chow didn?t) But if USC gets a big lead, they will go slightly conservative and Hawaii should have a decent front 7 to slow down the dominant rushing attack of USC. That is important if you are asking USC to cover 30+ pts. But I think USC will want to get Booty seasoned and this dude was the #1 QB coming out of high school. He has more talent than Leinart, he just has no experience and doesn?t make the right decisions every time like Leinart seems to always do. Very mistake prone.

Carroll is taking this game seriously. How seriously? Well he wants all his freshman/sophomores to be ready to contribute. Last week he made it game week (just like Hawaii). He made the USC team stay in a hotel and he took the team to the BEACH before the scrimmage on Sunday at the colisium in front of 30k fans. He said in Hawaii there will be the beach and distractions, so he wants the team prepared in every way. This scrimmage was a HUGE success. All the young played benefited tremendously from it. They got their gitters out and got used to playing in a huge stadium with 30k fans + USC installed loud speakers on field to make up for the missing 50k fans! This is why Carroll is the #1 HC in CFB. He pays attention to detail and this is why he gets his prized freshman recruits to not only produce but be stars on the field.

So there is no reason to doubt this USC team to be ready for Hawaii. USC will easily score over 60pts if they choose too. If Hawaii turns the ball over (likely), USC gets big quick scores (likely), and USC converts on those 3rd downs (likely), USC should score at least 50pts. No doubt in my mind the USC offense will run over Hawaii. Leinart will literally have 5 seconds against UH to throw on every pass play. This is how dominant the USC OL will be. Leinart was a deadly QB last year when he only had a few seconds to throw. Now he benefits froman experienced and NFL type OL. USC without question, has 2 of the 10 best tackles in the country. JUSTICE and BAKER. Justice did not play for USC last year because of suspension. Right tackle and Left Tackle are the 2 toughest positions on the OL. USC is set.

My prediction?

USC wins 63-23. Even though I predict a higher winning margin than the spread, I still am not making it a play. Mostly because $hit things can happen. USC can?t make too many mistakes if you expect them to cover the spread. Hawaii might have to make a couple of mistakes for USC to cover the spread. I do know this, USCs 2nd and 3rd team defense is much more talented than USC?s prior 2nd and 3rd team defense was last time USC played Hawaii. Hawaii scored 14 pts at the end of the game against the USC scrubs. If you are thinking about taking USC, Reggie Bush might win it for you by himself. Would not surprise me at all if Bush as 3 plays (rushing,receiving, or returns) that go for TD?s for over 50 yards. He is so much better now than he was last year. Now that he added over 10 pounds of muscle, he will break more tackles (if a defender gets his hands on him) and he can now run between the tackles with so much more authority. 10 pounds of muscle makes a huge difference and he didn?t lose any speed, and some think he got faster.

Think about this. Leinart without question get more time to throw. USC without question has more weapons on offense. So if Leinart is getting more time to throw, that means the Hawaii defender guarding Bush must stay with him that much longer. Take the best DB in the country, and I am not sure how long he can cover Bush. If Bush is covered, Leinart is the best QB in the country at checking off his WR?s and making right decisions. This is exactly what will happen against Hawaii.

This is why USC will win the National Championship. I even added $$$ last night to USC to win the NC. I am so confident in this team. This is a collection of offensive talent never seen before in the history of CFB. AT EVERY OFFENSIVE POSITION! NO WEAKNESS! The USC defense isn?t too shabby and don?t forget, they practice against these offensive players every freaking day. Carroll often runs 1?s vs 1?s for a series or 2 in practices. VERY INTENSE!

Take it to the bank, USC is ready for Hawaii. That is key if you are thinking about taking a team favored over 30pts.

 

[johnnyb.]

gridman
nice analysis of your team... good luck this season. going to play sc 1h small for fun as i wait for the next game (?) on espn2 saturday nite.

 

[Ummagumma]

Why worry about SC covering the number when the Over is the most inviting play?

 

[hm23]

I think Hawaii has a good OL. The left side will play on Sundays.

While reading an on-line MFEMFEMF paper, Coach Jones indicated that thery will play both QB prospects - Graunke and Brennan. From what I've been hearing, Brennan will be the starter by mid-season.

The Warriors don't have a proven playmaker at any of the offensive skill positions. Slot Ilaoa is the only one but his health concerns may mean limited playing time on Sat. He has not played much these past couple of seasons.

Hawaii has the potential for a good front with Jones saying to the MFEMFEMF media DE Alama-Francis is a pro prospect...to complement DE Purcell, who may also get a shot to play in the NFL. But I don't know if their interior play is any better than last season.

Their LB's are bad. If you watched them play last year - and yeah, they had injuries - I thought they were tentative. Too often they failed to fill the gaps and along with the front, were pushed around at the point of attack. This is their weakness on D.

Don't let his Tom Foolery pull the wool over your eyes, Jerry Glanville can coach. If he can find the right combinations and improve interior and LB play...they might have a decent D by mid-year.

I can see why you consider Jarrett the Trojans top WR...I think he's the better pro prospect. But as of right now, a healthy Smith is their top wideout.

In this game, I believe TE Byrd will have the bigger game of all the receivers.

Leinart should've gone to the pros. I'd like to see if he can consistently throw the deep ball well. With Leinart, I definitely want to take away the short and intermediate middle.

Yes, USC has a smorgasbord of offensive talent. If they wanna put 60 on the board...they will.

I wonder how their corner situation will pan out. I know Coach Carroll likes his prospects here, but I am not so sure. You have to like their safeties, primarily Bing...I think Ware is somewhat overrated.

Likewise, I wonder about the LB unit. Yes, there is lot of talent but it is unproven.

SC's special teams rates a clear edge...this could be the difference in covering the line.

With all the problems the Men of Troy have had of late... it would be best to keep the boys away from the temptations of Waikiki.

 

[Scott4USC]

I did not get a chance to read the posts in detail so here are my replies to your quotes.

How is SC looking in camp??

Very good. I been told it has been the best camp in the Pete Carroll era. In addition, no serious injuries and no off field distractions.

You have to believe that the coaching changes will have some negative effect, however minor.

Maybe, maybe not. I certainly think losing chow was a downgrade but flip it around and you will now see USC going for the kill in the 1h instead of the 2h. Chow would set teams up in the 1q for the 2h. USC will not be doing that anymore. That was one reason USC had so many close games at half.

I've heard that the Trojan O is looking really good. Leinart looking sharp...even if I still feel he is a bit overrated.

Leinart got himself stronger and he looks a hell of a lot better now than he did pre-season last year! (strength wise) Plus he now has experience around him. Don't forget that last year he was working with a brand new OL, WR's, and FB. Starting TE was out half the year too! I think he did a hell of a job and nobody should say he is over-rated. Watch what he does this season!

Remember when I said I though WR Smith was gonna be their next star over Lewis. What's the deal w/ Lewis anyway - will he even see many passes w/ Jarrett and the frosh Turner ahead of him.

I don't remember that but props to you. Lewis was #1 in the country out of high school. Gutsy prediction. Lewis sat out last year with academics and this year he showed up in top shape ready to contribute. He bruised his collar bone and been out for last 10 days. Might miss Hawaii. It all boils down to competition. Lewis has looked very good in practices but so have 5 other WR's. Competition, competition, competition. He is trying to be the 3rd or 4th WR on the team. Right now he is the 6th! Amazing huh? He be a starter at most places!

The only shot Hawaii has in keeping it respectable would be to attack the perimeter of the Trojan D, specifically the OLB's and CB's - as the DE's will be solid.

I strongly disagree. Hawaii needs to attack USC up the gut. USC has no proven DT and no proven MLB. Attack USC up the gut!!! You cannot run sideline to sideline against USC. Not going to happen. But I think there is a strong probability you can do damage against the USC defense up the gut. But Hawaii likes to pass. USC DB's and Safety's are very solid and talented. I'll say it again. I wish USC could trade USC's DT's for LSU's DT's.

Hawaii's problem seems to be that their off. skill positions are still mostly undecided. Apparently, QB Brennan has the makings of a good one, but SB Ilaoa is gimpy and in poor shape. I don't think they can exploit those questions on the USC D.



I did not know they were planning on playing 2 QB's. I never been a fan of that. It might take either QB a few series to get used to the speed of the USC D. This def. plays into the hands of USC!

I thought Hawaii was supposed to be solid in their front 7 on defense. Only weakness being secondary. If you are correct that they are weak at LB, then that will be a serious problem for Hawaii in this game. White and Bush will be getting big holes to run through and the LB needs to fill those gaps. If they don't, TD! For passing USC will use the whole field so they better effective defending the pass as well!

I can see why you consider Jarrett the Trojans top WR...I think he's the better pro prospect. But as of right now, a healthy Smith is their top wideout.

Smith is very good but Jarret is better. #1 reason is Jarret creates a mismatch when he steps onto the field. He should never be shut down by anyone. Smith doesn't create a physical mismatch, so he "could" get shut down. Remember, last year Jarret was a true freshman while Smith was a sophomore. Smith was injured for few games too. Jarret IMO will be the #1 WR but this freshman Patrick Turner will be USC's #1 WR next year with Jarret #2 and Smith #3.

In this game, I believe TE Byrd will have the bigger game of all the receivers.

Good prediction! This guy is a stud but has yet to play full season. He def. doesn't get the recognition across the country that he deserves. IMO he is the best TE in the country. UCLA players said the player they are most impressed with at USC is BYRD! Amazing physical talent for his size. He is like Kevin Winslow. Not as fast but a lot thicker and more powerful. Superb hands as I think he made 2 one handed TD catches last year!

With Leinart, I definitely want to take away the short and intermediate middle.

I agree. But Leinart can throw the deep ball but that is not his strength.

I wonder how their corner situation will pan out. I know Coach Carroll likes his prospects here, but I am not so sure. You have to like their safeties, primarily Bing...I think Ware is somewhat overrated.

The starters are excellent. The backups are very talented but inexperienced. I don't like playing inexperienced DB's so this could be a concern if USC suffers some injuries at this position. But Carroll said he isn't concerned at all about the DB position. Remember, USC lost their #1 DB because he had over 100 ecstasy pills in his dorm. What a bummer!

SC's special teams rates a clear edge...this could be the difference in covering the line.

Special teams and turnovers. If the USC defense forces turnovers, USC should cover the spread. This is why I am not making it a play. I do not want to rely on a team to get big special teams play and force turnovers for me to cover. When I handicap, I see those things as bonuses. Right now I do not know if the USC defense will be good at forcing turnovers.

With all the problems the Men of Troy have had of late... it would be best to keep the boys away from the temptations of Waikiki.

I don't think USC had too many problems. ZERO problems since spring ball. That is almost 5-6 months. They did lose their #1 DT grades, and #1 DB for flase rape charges and having 100 ecstasy pills in dorm room. They lost their #3 RB (washington) to grades for this season but USC is loaded at that position. Maybe that is a blessing because now USC has a super quality RB playing strictly on the scout team. That helps the USC starting defense!


Good posts hm23. You know your stuff! Please post your picks because I like the way you analyze games. I can learn a lot from you.

 

[soljah67]

i'm with you Scott and making this game a no play, that is if you get a 35 line. However, some dumb USC fan in Hawaii was so certain that USC was gonna kill Hawaii that he gave me a Hawaii +55 line. and of course I took it for the max that he would go of 4 units, what an idiot. Anyways word has it in hawaii that not much smart cappers are playing on their home team. I mean we can all put our emotions in it and think Hawaii has a chance, but when it comes down to it do they really? I think if anything bet on the over 66 is safer than to bet on the side. and with my +55 Hawaii bet, I think I might even play the other side with a teaser USC -29 & over 60, but not sure about it yet.
Some added thoughts on the Hawaii team that pepz seemed to have missed. Hawaii's best CB K. Patton is going to start, he did undergo arthroscopic surgery on Aug 22, but practiced in drills this tuesday and said his kneee feels great, I guess being that it was only a 10 min procedure who knows though. I know he will play, but dunno how effective he'll be. The offensive line is the best offensive line I've ever seen in Hawaii. Remember this is almost the same line personel that in 2003 allowed their first sack mid way through the 3rd quarter to USC's high touted Wild Bunch II. But in which I feel this line is even better. Another small, but important thing is UH's kicker although not proven in games is not slouch. its been reported that he consistently hits 40-45 yard field goals in practice. And I'm sure he can hit extra points, something last year's kicker had a problem with for some odd reason. Glanville should also help a defense tremendously. Hopefully he can at least teach them how to tackle, because last year, I could tackle way better than many of the Hawaii players. I on one play I seen 7 missed tackles, I mean wtf this guy wasnt' no barry sanders or Tomlinson. Anyways this game is a no play for me with the real line, but just thought i'd share my thoughts being that I'll be at the game to see at 2 future NFL star's, Leinart and Bush, run all over Hawaii. I just hope that Hawaii comes within 55 points.

 

[TimmyE]

However, some dumb USC fan in Hawaii was so certain that USC was gonna kill Hawaii that he gave me a Hawaii +55 line. and of course I took it for the max that he would go of 4 units, what an idiot.

Geez, where can i find someone like this. I know there's a bunch of fair weather usc fans out here that don't really follow college ball and will say they will beat hawaii by 100, I just need to find one that will make a wager like you did.