First week plays

[Nickelback]

Shouldn't push too much out in the middle during the first week but here's one that I have to hit:

Arizona/Utah under 45 BIG

This line has moved down for a reason. . . its simply too high! This line is a product of Utah's season last year coupled with the fact that they play in a conference that doesn't play defense! Arizona's D played very well against this team last year with their #1 QB and headliner coach. Take them away and I say Arizona's D should dominate. The problem is that Arizona's offense will stumble even more than Utah's IMO.

Given Arizona's report from camp, the offense is a couple years behind the defense which shouldn't be too much of a shock under Stoops. I know Stoops said he would focus most of his attention on offense but his bread and butter has always been defense. This is also the first game for both teams so it shouldn't be a surprise if the offenses are a little slow out of the gate. Everything to me adds up to a large play on the under. I see absolutely no reason to play the over unless you think Arizona's offense will put up some numbers. I just don't see it happening especially this early in the year.

More to come. . .

 

[bgold13]

i would be surprised if there was 35 points scored all game long

 

[ststrl]

Score should be similar to last years game. Both teams feature improved defenses, Utah has a weaker offense, yet UofA SHOULD have a better O, which isn't saying much.

This O/U should be around 38. First game of the year, UofA traveling up to the rarefied air in SLC, this will be a low scoring game.

 

[gjn23]

Final Score:

2-0....in 4 OT

Our offense will be significantly better this year (not saying much) but think we still play a conservative game on the road in game 1.

 

[pt1gard]

GL Nickel,

i thought that might be good seeing stoops had no off. in 2004 and utah minus genius coach and QB etc ...

 

[AR182]

nickelback,

agree with your play.

good luck.

 

[Nickelback]

Adding Oregon -4 second half average play. . . think Houston got all of their scoring out of the way the first half

 

[Nickelback]

Adding UConn -4.5 above average 2nd half. UConn is running all over them. Can't see them not scoring the 2nd half even with reserves.

 

[Nickelback]

Not a big fan of course but I believe this team will be damn good this year:

ASU -17 first half small

 

[Jaxx]

Nice call on oregon and uconn Nickelback. Always check your posts. Nice to see the football crew back given out winners. Good luck this season!

 

[Nickelback]

Definitely a good start to the season. . . will just play my winnings from ASU and put it on:

Washington State/Idaho under 28 small play

Not much scoring after WSU put up 14 quick points in the first two minutes of the game. Like the key number of 28 in this spot.

 

[Nickelback]

My version of the wheel:

Playing four two team 7 point teasers. . . all four plays will have Arizona/Utah under 50.5. I will pair this up with each of the following:

Arizona +14.5
Northern Illinois +25
UCLA -2.5
Miami +4

Should be in great shape as long as Arizona/Utah is under 50.5

Still like it under 43.5 but an extra seven feels even better. GL

 

[gman2]

best of luck nickel. obviously, i consider you to be a sharp capper but im really surprised with the miami tease, not because of the side, but because youre teasing across a ton of dead numbers. to go from -3 to +4, youre teasing 7 points, but 2/1/0/1/2 are essentially dead numbers. dont see a ton of value there, not to mention how weird that game is gonna be with no star power on either side at quarterback. for the last decade, one of the two teams has always had a solid qb. now, its anybodys guess who wins that game and will probably come down to which qb makes the fewest amount of mistakes. i like the northern illinois tease. not only are they a good team, but theyre confident, well-coached, and run the ball extremely well. gonna take a real egg for them to fail you there.

 

[Nickelback]

I took Miami +4 for a couple reasons:

First, I like them at -3 anyways so I would play that side. . . a tease getting +4 is value to me.

Second, this game always seems to come down to a kick in the end. Will it happen again? Probably not but +4 over an FSU team that to me is consistently overvalued works for me.

 

[Nickelback]

I should mention that my wheel is all dependent on Arizona/Utah under 50.5. The other parts of the wheel are games that I all like with the number that is already given. So to add +7 to each is great value to me IMO. If Arizona/Utah under 50.5 doesn't happen to come in, then you can bet that I will be Northern Illinois, UCLA, and Miami as straight wagers.