Grabbed Wisconsin -1 -118 over Bowling Green for 4 units. I got the line at mybookie. Betcris has Wiscy -2 -110.
Wisconsin :thumb:
This was a very easy bet to make. Only difficult thing was waiting weeks to put it in because I knew BG was going to get pounded which is exactly what happened. I was going to be happy with -3 but am ecstatic with -1. I still would have put 4 units at -3. Now here are the reasons why I love this play.
Big warning to those who are betting on BG. BG can't stop the rush, and Wisconsin has the will to pound the ball down a teams throats. Often in CFB coaches stray away from a gameplan. Wiscy will pound and wear down BG.
Wiscy lost a bunch of OL but not a problem. Wiscy is one of the best programs in producing lineman. That have a reputation of turning walk ons into NFL lineman. I am not worried. Especially against BG.
Before I go into detail, let it be known that Wisconsin is one of the most physical programs in the country. UGA HC Richt publicly commented after playing Wiscy that they were more physical than any of the teams he faced in the SEC. This is key when reading further.
Lets first look at the teams BG played last year where they went 9-3. I think people are forgetting this when touting BG and their "star" players.
@OU
SE Missouri St.
@Northern Ill.
@Temple
@Central Michigan
Ball St.
@Ohio
Eastern Michigan
Western Michigan
Marshall
@Toledo
Where does Wisconsin stack up against that competition? I do give BG credit for playing 6 road games and that is not easy. BG went 3-3 on the road. But just something to keep in the back of your mind along with Wiscy being a very physical program.
Bowling Green couldn't stop a rushing attack against teams from the MAC last year. 
Wisconsin will be able to run the ball on the Falcons. :yup
The Falcons defense is exactly what it is, a MAC DEFENSE. Not a BIG 10 defense, not a BCS conf. defense. It is a MAC defense.
They are extremely undersized. Specifically at DT and at LB. They might be mobile, but they def. are undersized. Lets not even talk about the Wiscy OL, the Wiscy FB is bigger than some of BG's DL. :scared
On top of that, BG is not a deep team. HUGE HUGE CONCERN!!!!!
Wisconsin is going to pound the ball down their throat and it is going to be HOT on the field. The BG defense who has a poor rush defense to start with, will be worn down by the combination of Wiscy OL and heat. It will be at least 80 + degrees. We are talking about 7-8min. Wisconsin drives.
Wisconsin has 2 solid RB's and I am excited to see Coulhoun. He will be important in this game. He is sorta like a Reggie Bush. He has very good hands. To offset their size advantage to try and take advantage of the inexperienced OL of wiscy, BG will be blitzing. Wiscy now has the option to dump the ball off to Coulhoun who has tremendous breakaway speed. It is a killer option! A good OC will take advantage of this and Wiscy has a good OC.
2nd, BG will be starting a true freshman at DB. :scared If this guy was a 5-star recruit (which he isn't) he still would be in trouble making his first start!
BG will be blitzing and crowding the line all day to help offset the size advantage and weak rush defense they havev. The safetys will be coming up to the line all day. People might not realize this but Wiscy has 3-4 solid WR's. Wiscy will be taking shots downfield and this freshman DB is going to get lit up. Especially with BG crowding the LOS. Expect big plays!
WR's WIlliams, Daniels and Orr are a solid group and Orr can really stretch the field. QB Stocco isn't an elite QB but he is not asked to put this team on his back. He is talented and I thinK Wiscy will get much better QB play this year from him. All he has to do is complete a few passes to open WR's because the Wiscy WR's will be open if BG crowds the LOS. BG secondary is not talented enough to shut down the Wiscy WR's especially the starting freshman DB. Not going to happen! If BG can't crowd the scrimmage because of the passing threat of Wiscy, they are TOAST! They will not be able to shut down the rushing game.
On defense Wiscy lost all their talented DL. Not good as I really value a strong and experienced DL. The good news is Wisconsin has a strong LB unit and that should be enough to "slow" down Omar Jacobs.
I think Wisconsin will be a very profitable team to bet on this year. They are a program who excels when there are no expectations but as soon as you have high expectations they somewhat let you down. I predict big upsets this year from this Wisconsin team and most likely will be backing them up on some juicy ML's. I sorta compare Wiscy to V-Tech. Last year not many expectations for V-Tech and look what they accomplished. Prior to USC playing V-Tech, many posters on MJ's kept telling me they were at best a 6th place team in the ACC. Bla bla bla. Put high expectations on V-Tech, and they often don't live up to them. I see that kind of season for Wisconsin and everyone knows this is Barry's last season with them. He will go out with a bang. Not going to win the Big 10 title, but will field a very competitive team who will pull off at least 1 major upset. Bank on it!
*As a bonus, I have some nice trends that support my play. If you are even having doubts!
BG is 3-12 ATS away vs opponents with a .500 winning %. We don't know Wiscy's winning % but I am confident they are better than a .500 team.
Wisconsin is 21-8 ATS when they play against a good team. Good team meaning a 60-75% winning %. I believe the vast majority feel BG will be a good team.
GO BADGERS!
FYI, 1st post in this thread has all my plays listed for week 1. 
