MD vs Navy

BASON

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 26, 2002
4,380
48
48
Rehoboth Beach
Talk about a difficult game to handicap, but I will try to keep it simple.

Though I live close to Annapolis, I have to admit that I do not know much about the Navy program this year. They graduated most of their starters, but that is a typical situation for them as seniors usually get the nod over underclassman. The new QB, Lamar Owens, was a Johnson recruit at Georgia Southern and has more speed than any of the other recent Navy QBs which could prove to be helpful against a MD defense that strength is in its linebacker core.

Maryland is a program that I know well and they have serious offensive problems again this year. Their offernsive line is in disarray. They lost their best tackle and only senior on the line for the year and converted last year's tight end to replace him. They have had numerous injuries on the offensive line and will start an inexperienced group.

The running back situation is just as bad. They will play three backs on Saturday, but all are inexperienced and frankly not that good. Merrills is a senior but has been injury prone all his career and does not have break away speed. Lattimore has more speed, but is undersized. Lance Ball is in between. The MD offense is centered around the running game and it has not looked good all camp long.

The best part of their camp has been their wide receivers. The freshman, Williams and Heyward-Bey are going to be special. They have tremendous speed and can catch the ball. The problem is who is going to throw it. Right now it is Hollenbach's team. He has looked good throwing the ball lately, but the lack of an established running game is going to hurt them.

Their is no secret to the Navy offense. They will run the ball with the triple-option. I think they may throw the ball some more this year since Lewis is rumored to have a strong arm and they will likely have to throw to be successful in the MD game. MD's defense centers around their middle linebacker, D. Jackson. He is very good. Their secondary, a strength last year, has many question marks this year as all the starters are new.

Until MD proves they can put some points on the Board, they should not be laying more than a TD to anyone. This rivalry has been dormant for many years, but has a long and storied history. This game means much more to Navy than MD. The game is at neutral site (the Ravens stadium).

I look for a typical inspired effort from the Navy squad. If they limit turmovers and put pressure on the MD QB, I think they have a shot at winning this game. I am scared of MD long passing game and think the only way they can cover is by completing many of them.

What the hell, first weekend of the year, I am predicting the first big upset.

NAVY 20
MD 17


Good luck this week to all!
 

hawkeye

Registered User
Forum Member
Jun 29, 2000
26,022
116
63
denver, co-usa
GL--I like M'land in this one--Navy only 2 off and 4 def starters back--Johnson is a good coach --M'land has 7 off and 5 def starters back-Friedgen is also a good coach--I think M'land can cover
 

Scott4USC

Fight On!
Forum Member
Sep 11, 2002
5,410
18
38
44
Thanks for the excellent post BASON. I wish there were more like this. I was looking at betting Maryland based solely on the returning starters for Maryland vs lack of returning starters for Navy. But as I kept capping it, I really couldn't find any other solid reasons to take Maryland. Your post was exactly what I needed and made me scratch this game off my list. Whether Maryland covers or not, thanks for the post!
 

DJP

Go Terps
Forum Member
Feb 4, 2001
944
1
18
Washington DC USA
BASON,

I need to correct you on one thing. Lattimore(Ray Lewis's half brother) is the big RB. He is 6'0 235 lbs while Merrils has good speed but is only 5'10 203 lbs. Lattimore's has talent but really hasnt perfomed like he can in fall practice. He looked great in the Spring game but seemed to have fallen to third in the depth chart.

One thing that you will see is that MD's OL's and DL's are alot bigger than Navy's. Bigger doesnt always mean better but they might wear them out by the end of the game.

MD's defense will be good this year and they are ALWAYS good at stoping the rub, but they havent faced an option attack in a long time. Wake Forest is he closest offense they play to an option team.

For me I like MD in this game. I liked them a hell of alot more when the game openned at 7 than 12. I feel the def. coordinator(Blackney) will have his MD defense ready for the option. They are not taking Navy lightly. This is a big game for alot of their younger players. I think MD wins 31-10. Good luck.
 

BASON

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 26, 2002
4,380
48
48
Rehoboth Beach
Thanks for the response guys.

Trust me, I am a huge MD fan and booster, so I want them to win and have a great year, but I just can't put money on them right now. They are definitely bigger and more talented than Navy and by the numbers they should win by at least two TDs.

Please remember that returning starters for service academies is misleading. They rarely return many starters since seniors get strong preference for playing time (though AF is an exception this year), so making a play based on that stat is not as relevant for them as it my be for others.

I just think MD will struggle offensively. I try to cap all the MD games which is why I posted, but there are some better games on the Board, which I will try to post later.

This is an interesting match up for the first game and I am looking forward to being in Baltimore Saturday night.

GL to all!
 
Last edited:

BASON

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 26, 2002
4,380
48
48
Rehoboth Beach
Georgia-7
Rutgers-1
AF+3
BC-2

These are the best bets I see this weekend. Georgia is a popular pick and I usually don't like those, but I just think they will wear Boise down and Boise just does not play well on the road. I really like this Rutgers team this year, they are going to surprise people. IL is just not good right now. Rutgers is my best bet for the weekend. Not sure how Washington is favored in this game. AF actually returns a lot of starters which is rare for a service academy. I think they run at will against the UW and win this game. BC in my opinion will run and keep running against BYU. This line has been bet down to a very favorable position for BC. I love their ball control offense, they are for real and will win this game by at least 7.

These is much more reasoning behind these picks, but I hate to type so I try to keep things short and sweet.

My other two cents:

Waitng to get 21.5 with C. Fla tomorrow. Everyone on Spurrier and his brash run up the score ways. O'leary can coach and this C. Fla team will be better than last year. Have not seen anyone going against S. Car yet, so I will be first.

Clemson - Personally, I hate Clemson's offense, but this is a good spot for them. A&M is very hyped this year, but I am not buying it. Think Clemson wins a close one.

UAB - I am taking a flyer on them. This Blazer team is good and should win Conferecen USA this year. TN is a brutal place to play, but I will take the points (will wait as I expect this line to continue to rise)

Other than that I am tailgating the UConn and AZ Un plays recommended by others.

Take it easy this week, we have many to go and good luck!
 

Devil Dog

Registered User
Forum Member
Feb 1, 2004
151
0
0
79
Springfield, Ohio
Academy Teams

Academy Teams

Academy teams are always lighter than other teams because of regulations and qualifications to become a Cadet or Midshipman or whatever. That's why they run option or a hybrid of the option. I liked Maryland a whole lot better before the big line move????? Will probably pass but the right side is Maryland. JMO.
Best Wishes
Devil Dog
 

BASON

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 26, 2002
4,380
48
48
Rehoboth Beach
Well, the game went exactly as scripted. MD pulled it out but the cover was never in doubt. Almost a perfect prediction.

Best bets went 3-1 with Rutgers totally screwing me and leans went 3-0.

7-1 in total and 8-2 counting tag ons.

Overall a great first weekend, hope everyone cashed in!
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top