WHO?S GOT THE ADVANTAGE: Missouri vs. New Mexico
by Tiger Tracker..
These teams are basically identical on offense, so it?s going to tough to call.
Brad Smith vs. N.M. defense
Quarterback Brad Smith seemed to be back to his old self against Arkansas State last weekend, gaining 412 yards of total offense (95 rushing, 317 passing) and throwing four touchdowns. The Arkansas State defense had trouble shutting him down, but I think New Mexico won?t face the same problem. New Mexico is used to playing against mobile quarterbacks, and over the last couple years have played well against them. However, against UNLV last Monday, New Mexico allowed some big runs, which allowed UNLV to almost win the game. If Brad Smith is really back, he?s shifty enough to solve this defense either with his legs or his arm.
Advantage: Brad Smith
Kole McKamey vs. MU defense
Quarterback Kole McKamey had a good game against UNLV in the first half, but struggled to get his team much offense in the second, which opened the way for UNLV to come back. However, McKamey completed 20 of 29 passes for 288 yards and two touchdowns.
The Missouri defense didn?t face much of a running quarterback last weekend, but will see McKamey attempt options and sneaks. The Missouri defensive line should be ready for it considering McKamey likes to play similar to MU quarterback Brad Smith.
If the Missouri defense doesn?t overcommit and spies McKamey, it should limit his mobility and force him to throw. Then it will be up to the MU pass defense to be ready for the challenge.
Advantage: MU defense
Marcus Woods & Tony Temple vs. N.M. D-line and linebackers
Missouri running backs Marcus Woods and Tony Temple had a strong game against Arkansas State, rushing for a total of 152 yards and two touchdowns. But New Mexico isn?t going to make it as easy. The New Mexico linebackers blitz nearly the entire game, which will put pressure on the Missouri rushers, but could also open a lot of holes. UNLV was only able to exploit the N.M. line and linebackers for 108 yards, but 85 of those yards came in the second half after the UNLV offense figured out the Lobos scheme.
The Tigers have several rushing weapons. If the defense tries to be aggressive, one of the two running backs or quarterback Brad Smith could turn it into a big gain.
Advantage: Marcus Woods and Tony Temple
DonTrell Moore vs. MU D-line and linebackers
New Mexico running back DonTrell Moore is coming off knee surgery and coach Rocky Long said that last Saturday?s game was the first game he had been tackled. He didn?t look too amazing, as he rushed for 39 yards on 16 carries. However, the Lobos are 7-1 when quarterback Kole McKamey and Moore are in the game together. When Moore gets his fitness back, he will be a threat. But with the short week and him taking a pounding for the first time in nearly a year, I think he?ll continue to struggle this week against a Missouri line and linebacking corps that seems hell bent to resolve its rushing defense problems from a year ago.
Advantage: MU D-line and linebackers
MU receivers vs. N.M. secondary
The MU wide receivers are going to be without their leader Sean Coffey and that might affect the psyche of this young group. But, all of the receivers are versed in all of the different receiving spots and it shouldn?t be a problem rotating people to pick up the slack for Coffey.
The New Mexico secondary seemed to weaken as the game went on. UNLV threw for 255 yards and two touchdowns, and 170 of those yards were in the second half. With the way New Mexico blitzes, it makes them vulnerable to short passes across the middle, something MU quarterback Brad Smith did well against Arkansas State. Look for the Tigers to utilize the shovel pass until New Mexico proves it can?t stop it. William Franklin and Tommy Saunders should be very busy at the H-receiver position with some of the shorter routes and tight end Chase Coffman proved he can be a valuable weapon as well. I think Missouri has too many options to keep their passing attack quiet.
Advantage: MU receivers
N.M. receivers vs. MU secondary
Although the Tigers were one of the top defenses against the pass last year, it still allowed 206 yards to Arkansas State. The Tigers had one interception, but had at least three opportunities with cornerback Marcus King dropping two potential picks. New Mexico is going to provide a challenge with receiver Hank Baskett, who had six catches for 132 yards and a touchdown. He was the bulk of the Lobos offense as none of the other receivers had more than 25 yards. If the Tigers can contain him, that would shut off the main pipeline to the Lobos success. If not, it?s going to be a long day for the Tigers secondary.
Advantage: Toss-up
MU O-line vs. N.M. D-line
Missouri offensive lineman Tyler Luellen, who suffered a sprained ankle against Arkansas State, could be suspect against a pretty quick New Mexico defensive line. The offensive linemen will have to be on their toes to prepare for the blitz and the Lobos 30 stack defensive front, which revolves around the front eight guys.
The Lobos had one sack and six quarterback hurries against UNLV, but the Running Rebels used the option and the shovel pass (triple option) to defeat the blitz. The Missouri offensive line will need to hold just long enough to give quarterback Brad Smith an opportunity to scramble or find the open wide receiver underneath. Luellen will have his hands full with Evroy Thompson, who had the Lobos only sack.
Advantage: Toss-up
N.M. O-line vs. MU D-line
The New Mexico offensive line averages 325 pounds, which will be one of the largest lines the Tigers face this year. The Missouri defensive front averages just a little more than 266 pounds. This was the biggest point of contention at the start of the spring when this line was assembled. MU is going to have a hard time getting to quarterback Kole McKamey and running back DonTrell Moore. However, the Tigers speed and quickness could play a role if they can get underneath the initial block of the offensive linemen. Either defensive end Brian Smith or Xzavie Jackson might play a little off the line to come around the corner and get to the quarterback, but if McKamey has time, it?s going to put extra pressure on the secondary.
Advantage: N.M. O-line
MU kicker and punter vs. N.M. kicker and punter
MU kicker Adam Crossett had ups and downs in the last game as he missed an extra point and made a 45-yard field goal. This game might come down to who has the solid kicker and though Crossett has proven he has the distance, he hasn?t proven he has the accuracy. New Mexico kicker Kenny Byrd hit a 37-yard field goal and was perfect on his three extra point attempts.
Advantage: N.M. kicker Kenny Byrd
MU punter Matt Hoenes has proven in practice that he has booming punting power, but he didn?t show it in the game. However, he didn?t have a bad game with three punts averaging 42 yards. New Mexico punter Tyler Gaus is very similar to Hoenes. In his game he had six punts for an average of 42.3 yards. Field position is going to be everything in the game, so punting will be crucial.
Advantage: Toss-up
The final word
These teams are almost identical. They both run variations of the spread offense, but the New Mexico defense plays against several teams that run it in the Mountain West, whereas Missouri is still learning. Both teams have also shown a little bit of letdown in the second half. New Mexico should be tired with the five-day turnaround. The Tigers are going to be playing without their top receiver. I think it?s going to come down to the intangibles and execution because these teams are so similar. I wouldn?t be surprised if the game is decided by a late field goal.
