Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
Generated Sun Sep 11 07:34:54 UTC 2005
Average wins by position in AL East: 94.5 90.2 81.7 76.0 66.8
AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Red Sox 83 58 .561 94.3 67.7 86.24329 3.59876 89.84205
Yankees 79 62 .561 90.3 71.7 13.74497 10.93435 24.67932
Blue Jays 71 70 .510 81.7 80.3 .01172 .00236 .01408
Orioles 66 75 .510 76.2 85.8 .00000 .00000 .00000
Devil Rays 59 84 .459 67.0 95.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 98.3 93.0 83.8 75.2 53.7
AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
White Sox 87 54 .542 97.9 64.1 89.46378 9.93847 99.40225
Indians 81 61 .577 93.2 68.8 10.53563 68.34975 78.88538
Twins 73 68 .516 83.7 78.3 .00058 .05460 .05518
Tigers 64 76 .494 74.5 86.5 .00000 .00000 .00000
Royals 46 94 .384 53.4 107.6 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 92.1 89.3 79.5 69.9
AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Angels 80 61 .548 91.2 70.8 61.22493 3.37133 64.59625
Athletics 79 62 .567 90.1 71.9 38.77164 3.74843 42.52007
Rangers 69 73 .538 79.5 82.5 .00343 .00000 .00343
Mariners 61 80 .458 69.9 92.1 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by AL Wild Card: 93.2
Average wins by position in NL East: 92.6 86.6 84.4 82.0 80.0
NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Braves 82 60 .532 92.6 69.4 95.61643 3.00802 98.62446
Marlins 76 66 .506 85.6 76.4 3.15324 26.85350 30.00674
Phillies 74 68 .526 84.2 77.8 1.18235 10.61288 11.79523
Nationals 73 70 .459 81.6 80.4 .02322 1.40668 1.42989
Mets 70 72 .545 81.5 80.5 .02394 1.18023 1.20417
Average wins by position in NL Central: 102.0 87.2 81.7 79.1 74.1 66.1
NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Cardinals 91 52 .573 102.0 60.0 99.99960 .00040 100.00000
Astros 76 65 .529 87.0 75.0 .00040 55.85497 55.85537
Brewers 70 72 .500 80.2 81.8 .00000 .35778 .35778
Cubs 70 72 .532 80.6 81.4 .00000 .72791 .72791
Reds 65 76 .465 74.2 87.8 .00000 .00002 .00002
Pirates 57 84 .433 66.2 95.8 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 82.9 76.4 74.4 71.9 64.5
NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Padres 71 70 .490 82.8 79.2 97.10953 .00000 97.10953
Diamondbacks 65 78 .427 74.4 87.6 .71236 .00000 .71236
Dodgers 64 77 .433 74.5 87.5 1.09167 .00000 1.09167
Giants 64 77 .426 74.0 88.0 1.08576 .00000 1.08576
Rockies 56 85 .394 64.6 97.4 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by NL Wild Card: 88.1
As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte
Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins,
losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted
Standings Report.
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.