Divisional Odds

[BobbyBlueChip]

I'm officially waiving the white flag on my White Sox divisional wager and would like to hedge.

Anyone have a book where you can still wager on the divisional race in the AL Central?

 

[IE]

hard pressed for this.

 

[IE]

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

Generated Sun Sep 11 07:34:54 UTC 2005

Average wins by position in AL East: 94.5 90.2 81.7 76.0 66.8
AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Red Sox 83 58 .561 94.3 67.7 86.24329 3.59876 89.84205
Yankees 79 62 .561 90.3 71.7 13.74497 10.93435 24.67932
Blue Jays 71 70 .510 81.7 80.3 .01172 .00236 .01408
Orioles 66 75 .510 76.2 85.8 .00000 .00000 .00000
Devil Rays 59 84 .459 67.0 95.0 .00000 .00000 .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central: 98.3 93.0 83.8 75.2 53.7
AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
White Sox 87 54 .542 97.9 64.1 89.46378 9.93847 99.40225
Indians 81 61 .577 93.2 68.8 10.53563 68.34975 78.88538
Twins 73 68 .516 83.7 78.3 .00058 .05460 .05518
Tigers 64 76 .494 74.5 86.5 .00000 .00000 .00000
Royals 46 94 .384 53.4 107.6 .00000 .00000 .00000

Average wins by position in AL west: 92.1 89.3 79.5 69.9
AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Angels 80 61 .548 91.2 70.8 61.22493 3.37133 64.59625
Athletics 79 62 .567 90.1 71.9 38.77164 3.74843 42.52007
Rangers 69 73 .538 79.5 82.5 .00343 .00000 .00343
Mariners 61 80 .458 69.9 92.1 .00000 .00000 .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card: 93.2

Average wins by position in NL East: 92.6 86.6 84.4 82.0 80.0
NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Braves 82 60 .532 92.6 69.4 95.61643 3.00802 98.62446
Marlins 76 66 .506 85.6 76.4 3.15324 26.85350 30.00674
Phillies 74 68 .526 84.2 77.8 1.18235 10.61288 11.79523
Nationals 73 70 .459 81.6 80.4 .02322 1.40668 1.42989
Mets 70 72 .545 81.5 80.5 .02394 1.18023 1.20417

Average wins by position in NL Central: 102.0 87.2 81.7 79.1 74.1 66.1
NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Cardinals 91 52 .573 102.0 60.0 99.99960 .00040 100.00000
Astros 76 65 .529 87.0 75.0 .00040 55.85497 55.85537
Brewers 70 72 .500 80.2 81.8 .00000 .35778 .35778
Cubs 70 72 .532 80.6 81.4 .00000 .72791 .72791
Reds 65 76 .465 74.2 87.8 .00000 .00002 .00002
Pirates 57 84 .433 66.2 95.8 .00000 .00000 .00000

Average wins by position in NL West: 82.9 76.4 74.4 71.9 64.5
NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Padres 71 70 .490 82.8 79.2 97.10953 .00000 97.10953
Diamondbacks 65 78 .427 74.4 87.6 .71236 .00000 .71236
Dodgers 64 77 .433 74.5 87.5 1.09167 .00000 1.09167
Giants 64 77 .426 74.0 88.0 1.08576 .00000 1.08576
Rockies 56 85 .394 64.6 97.4 .00000 .00000 .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card: 88.1




As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte
Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins,
losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted
Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Are you asking if I'm hard pressed to hedge?

Yes, I am.

I have no desire to sweat this one out, butPinny stopped putting out a line on the AL Central in late July.

The stats above say that the Sox have an 89% chance of winning the division, but based on what you've seen, do you think that that percentage is close?

Great stuff as always, IE. Thanks

 

[IE]

hard pressed to find...

curious,what odds do you have on that play?

 

[gman2]

do you want to buy my "cleveland indians to win the AL central" ticket that im trying to find some scotch tape for, just in case? i was about to use it for toilet paper two months ago but then found a few spare rolls of two-ply just in the nick of time. its at +350. in all seriousness, im not holding my breath for that ticket to come back from the dead and cash. white sox just need to play slightly above average baseball for the final 20 games and theyll be fine. indians would have to sweep at least one of our two remaining series against you guys and thats asking a lot.

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

bobby, i have no idea what kind of odds you have or what you layed. but you can't really be serious.

you want to hedge your bet when they are up 5.5 games with only 21 left. i understand they haven't looked stellar lately, but no chance they are losing that division. they play em 6 more times. i respect the hell out of cleveland and hope they find the wild card, but no way are they going to win that division. sox looked lifeless this weekend, but they played one of the better teams in all of baseball

doesn't look like they will go far in the postseason, but no way can i see them blowing the division

gl

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

i guess if you really are hard pressed to hedge some of it you can buy the white sox winning the al wild card in the wsex interactives for +1900. surely you don't think they are gonna collapse right out of the playoffs? its not the north siders.

 

[gman2]

plus you have the advantage of the final 3 games of the season being against cleveland, so you could essentially hedge any of those games and be home free.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

I got the Sox +425 before the season started and I think that it's worth no better than -400 now, so if I could find something for Cleveland in the +700 - 800 range, I would hedge for sure. I can't wait for that last series to hedge due to the fact that I don't think that the Tribe will need a sweep if there is a collapse to win that series and they'll be at home and, likely, favored.

Remaining Schedule

Cleveland
Minn (1)
KC (7)
TB (3)
Oak(3)
CWS (6)

Chicago
Minny (7)
Clev (6)
KC (3)
Det (4)