Mr. Lock's College game of the year Sat 17, 05

[MR. LOCK]

USC -30

I know it's a lot of wood to lay but i'm letting it all ride. :firing:

I am so sure about this game that I am flying 2,000 miles to see this game in person at the Coliseum. I leave for Vegas tomorrow to set the trap.

Now this is what I know:

The Arkansas players are pissed that they have to travel to SC. To a man they know that they're being sent to the woodshed. The school scheduled this game so that they can collect a "Cool Million Dollars" for playing this game. This game for Arkansas is all about the money, period.

SC: They've had two weeks to prepare. This is their home opener under the lights. This will also be the last opener for Leinhart, Bush & company. They want to win this game "BIG" I'm not just talking about winning I mean winning by 40 or more. There will be not let up by the Trojans on Sat. while Arkansas says to themselves, " Why are we here?"

Good Luck
Mr. Lock

Ps: I'm laying my money at 4 different casinos.

 

[Cabo]

I totally agree!!! USC is 8-0 ats when favored by 23pts or more. I just played them @ -30 for 2 units, I expect this line to move north fast GL

 

[gridman]

Just curious. Is Arkansas that bad of a team? Believe Houston Nutt to be one of the better coaches in the college ranks and has quite a bit of returning veterans. He should be able to get his team to play decent ball and stay within the 30pts. JMHO
GM

 

[NJHawgFan]

Believe Houston Nutt to be one of the better coaches in the college ranks

:mj07:

My Hogs lost to Vanderbilt this weekend at home when favored by 10.5.

I'd love for them to cover or keep it close, hell, even win, but I just don't see it.

One positive is that the Hogs usually play big against big opponents. I hope that holds true this weekend, but my money won't touch this game.

 

[pt1gard]

mr lock im curious why arky is pissed they have to travel, were they afraid 2 years ago when they beat Texas by 10 on the road and did the same at bama, or are all those players gone? Im not saying usc cant cover, but that logic is a lil far fetched unless your brother is on team and he told you the pigs are trembling. Maybe i'm naive but competitors compete and relish going into big games, anytime, anywhere. Least that always been my exp. in the sportsworld. Maybe you have the skinny that Nutt is really yellow and Clinton's state is too.

gl, gregg

 

[Sun Tzu]

USC may well destroy them but the logic is preposterous.

 

[Scott4USC]

Arkansas is playing a home and away series with USC. Next year USC plays @Arky. So I am not sure if you are correct USC bought them out or Arky only playing USC for $$$. I also think when Arky scheduled USC, USC was not a powerhouse.

Just an FYI, USC is VERY banged up at DE position. #3, #4, and #5 DE's prob. won't play. For sure the #3 and #5 DE's won't. That shouldn't matter too much but thought I let you know. Starters are healthy. Carroll will play everyone if USC gets big lead.

That said, I agree with your pick. USC offense should put up 40+ but the theme of this year is to prepare for next year. I think Leinart will only be playing 3q's of football and USC is preparing for Booty next year. Then USC won't have a huge dropoff and contend for a NC in 2006. Booty has very little experience so he easily can fawk up your wager with turnovers. He has been prone to turnovers in practices. Otherwise he is super talented and even could add to the pts. 50/50 gamble.

You are aware that USC plays @Oregon and @ASU next 2 weeks Prob. the 2 toughest weeks in a row of the season and where USC is most vulnerable. USC will be VERY vanilla against Arkansas. Offensively and Defensively. I guarantee it.

I already know Pete Carrolls defensive strategy against Arkansas. STOP the run and give up the short pass. He will do his best to make Arky march down the field in baby steps. Which creates high prob. of turnovers. USC will not give up any big plays but USC might give up long drives that eat the clock but once Arky reaches the 20, they are done. FG time. Arky will score TD's when Carroll plays his freshman and 2nd and 3rd stringers on D. He will play them.

3 frosh at LB
3 frosh at DT
2 frosh at DB
2 frosh at Safety
Don't forget the injuries at DE

All will be coming into the game when USC has built a big lead. Carroll wants these guys experienced and ready to contribute ASAP. He needs to play them and evaluate.

So now you have good idea what USC will do in this game. That is the only reason I am not betting USC -30. I am looking at USC 1h. That might be solid bet.

 

[NJHawgFan]

Excellent write-up, Scott.

The Hogs do have a good stable of running backs. Felix Jones, who is a freshman, is a speedster and a good one at that. Peyton Hillis, a sophomore, is a power back and is just as capable of running over you as around you. The only senior, De?Arrius Howard, had a great game against Vandy, athough he hasn't ever really played up to his potential. If USC can't stop the run, that may help the Razorbacks chances at covering the 30+ points.

Outside of that, I can't think of much positive to say. They have a WR who was converted to a DE, if that tells you anything. Our QB has two full games of experience. :scared I just hope Carroll takes it easy and remembers that he was once a grad assistant at U of A way back and pulls his foot off the pedal sometime in the 2nd half.

I would agree with you on the 1h play.

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

USC -30


Ps: I'm laying my money at 4 different casinos.

i'm not done rolling on the floor laughing yet. this is absolutely the funniest thing i've ever heard on madjacks. and that says a whole lot.

you expect people to believe you are laying the kind of cash you need to hit the max in 4 sportsbooks in vegas.

i know personally of 6 vegas books that will take 250 k on this game and plenty others without a blink of the eye.

good luck with your million dollar bet on sc

even if you are doing it to avoid taxes, you want us to believe you are ponying up 40 k on this game...LOL

 

[smurphy]

USC is preparing for Booty next year

i have a lot in common with usc. i'm preparing for booty next year, next month, next week, tonight - you name it. always be prepared for booty.

 

[THE KOD]

even if you are doing it to avoid taxes, you want us to believe you are ponying up 40 k on this game...LOL

..........................................................

Bleed

Scott4USC may be lending it to him.

 

[THE KOD]

USC may well destroy them but the logic is preposterous.

..........................................................

As RAYMOND would say...

thats for should !

 

[Scott4USC]

Thanks NJHawgFan.

To cover a big point spread you need strong defensive play. You also need a defense to create turnovers. Might not happen with USC. 30pts is a big spread.

Carroll is using this game to evaluate his players. Even the starters. USC will not be blitzing too often. Carroll wants Arkansas to run right at his 2 starting "unproven" DT's. He needs to evaluate their play. Also needs to evaluate the 2nd/3rd string. Playing Hawaii Carroll did not learn much on defense. He also needs to see what kind of penatration his DL can get without a blitz or stunts. You will see a very vanilla base defense from USC. Arky SHOULD move the ball and have some success. USC cannot play vanilla defense and shut down Arkansas. I don't see that happening. Now Carroll can use his schemes and dominate and impress everyone but what good does that do? I think this is what separates Carroll from other coaches. Most coaches will try and dominate every opponent they play. USC is using Arkansas to help win them a NC and create depth! USC is not going to do anything special on defense and I think they will give up yards to Arky.

BTW, there are zero question marks on USC offense. Coaches all say USC is in midseason form and you never hear coaches say that about their offense after week 1.

I guarantee Matt Leinart plays the 1q and 2q. So if you like USC, bet them 1h instead of for the game. Late in the game, you might see 1st string Arky O vs 2nd string USC D. Arky will win that battle. I guarantee it. Carroll only cares about winning big against ND and UCLA!

 

[ferdville]

SC will relish playing against the Hog offense, rather conservative and normal, after looking so-so at best against Hawaii. If SC substitutes freely, Ark might be able to beat the spread by running over and over to keep SC off the field.

 

[Cal-Neva]

i agree with Scott4USC i think it too much to lay 30+ points on Ark and i just hate backdoor cover. i think it better to bet on USC on 1half

 

[Juu3]

I agree with Scott, gonna need more than a turnover or two. I have no doubt that Arkansas will get beat bad, I just think they looked way past Vandy to try to get a little prepared for the beating.

 

[Scott4USC]

I did not watch or even seen highlights of the Arky game. But Pete Carroll yesterday said Arky was ready to blow out Vandy. Arky was ahead 10-0 at one pt in 1h with the ball ready to score and then things went bad. Vandy tied it up 10-10 at half. At the start of the 4th quarter, Arky was ahead 24-13. I guess things just went bad again.

It wasn't like Arky was dominated. I think it was just a classic example of a better team not putting away an underdog. If you let a team hang around they can upset you. That is exactly what happened. They prob. were looking ahead to USC.

I think people in general see that Vandy upset Arky but Arky was not nearly as bad as people think. Having 10-0 lead in 2q and having a 24-13 lead start of 4th isn't bad. But it is not big enough lead that the underdog can't comeback. Arky might be a very dangerous team for USC.

 

[Sun Tzu]

Pete Carroll obviously didnt watch the game either. The game was never in danger of being a blowout. Arky went up 10-0 in the 2nd qtr and Vandy promptly went on a 14 play td drive. Stopped them 3 and out then promptly went 70 yards for the tying fg late in the half. Start 3rd qtr drove it length of field again for a fg. Nothing "bad" happened to Arkansas ,they were just getting whupped. After Arkansas took the 24-13 lead because Vandy turned the ball over Vandy promptly marched down the field again in a mere two minutes. Vandy beat Arkansas in essentially every category.

I know you want to make it look like beating Arkansas means something. It doesnt.

 

[MR. LOCK]

I'm back!

Wow what a great vacation thanks to USC and Co.

Mr. Lock

ps Next time u see a game of the year posted by Mr. Lock takes it to the Bank.