plays & angles for 9/18 - 9/19

[AR182]

went 8-4-1 +9.50* last week.

i read something just now that i thought was interesting......

nfl dogs who gain more yards rushing than their favored opponent is 764-233-27 ats (76.6%) since 1980.

now the question is which dogs will out rush their favored opponent ?

my guesses are....

buffalo
chicago

any others ?

 

[Padre]

san diego

i think Marty will unleash LT this week.

 

[pt1gard]

is mike anderson out? champ bailey is im guessing?

 

[AR182]

padre,

denver is a good rushing team.......not sure that s.d. will out rush denver.

 

[MrChristo]

Great start last week, AR.

Tampa held Minni last week to 33 yards on the ground last week...19 by Culpepper.

I know they aren't the best rushing attack going around themselves, but pretty sure they'll be keyed to stopping McGahee and making Losman beat them in the air.

Chicago/Det could be a 0-0 draw!

 

[DeadPrez]

Heard on the radio that champ baily and mike anderson were both cleared to play sunday- anderson has a tough injury though, one big hit in the wrong place and he's done. Didn't take much for him to be out last week-I'm staying away from this game tho

 

[gardenweasel]

personally,i`m not sold on tampa bay...or griese....or miami for that matter....and frerotte...

t.b. benefitted from numerous minny turnovers last week....and yes,the inexperienced losman is a concern....

still,i`ll take the 3(buying half if necessary)....lay the 5.5 with the jets(lousy home favs)......and cincy-3....

i think.... :mj03:

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...

one of the books just went down to jets-4.5.....

this may be a sucker bet bet but i can't believe the jets regressed that much & the dolphins improved that much....

2*jets-4(120)......road dogs that are off a su win by 14 or more points where they were dogs of +3 or more are 16-42-2 ats (27%) since 1989....

play against miami

2*u35 buff/tb

good luck.

 

[gardenweasel]

also looking at some strange plays....

houston +4.5...i actually may play them on the moneyline....

seattle-1

carolina+3

over 44 rams/arizona....

small...

g.l.,my brotha`....

 

[RexBudler]

nice job so far AR and gl to you today

 

[LUX]

Good luck Al, I am with you on the Jets.

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...

gw....

i liked houston all week but with big ben out & seemingly everybody picking them, i decided to stay away.

why do you like seattle....i like teams that can run the ball & stop the run & am thinking of going the other way because i think atl will run on the hags & stop seattle's running...not sure yet.

 

[AR182]

thanks lux....the jets line seems seems strange to me....hopefully we're right.

 

[trolln4walii]

Wishing you another successful week AR. Hope that trend with the Bears and Bills holds true today

 

[gardenweasel]

like the spot...atlanta was sky high for the eagles.....they are in atlanta`s way to the nfc championship game....and there was payback for last year....and honestly,i just think that vick is still erratic...

but,i have to admit,seattle tends to be mistake prone....

like the spot...but, i`m playing small..

i`m looking at your buffalo under...

g.l.,partner...

 

[AR182]

here is an interesting angle....

game 2 non division road dogs of more than 4 are 11-0 ats vs. home teams who had lost on the division road in game 1.....

play cleve.

betting cleve. on the road scares me.


good luck.

 

[AR182]

adding.....

2*az.(p).....rams are 1-10 ats in the 2nd of b2b division games.

good luck.

 

[lowell]

good luck to you

 

[AR182]

thanks lowell


adding....

2*denver-2.5....

denver is 17-9-1 ats home off a loss of more than 10 points.

good luck.

 

[smurphy]

like the spot...atlanta was sky high for the eagles.....they are in atlanta`s way to the nfc championship game....and there was payback for last year....and honestly,i just think that vick is still erratic...

but,i have to admit,seattle tends to be mistake prone....

like the spot...but, i`m playing small..

i`m looking at your buffalo under...

g.l.,partner...

I agree - it's a great spot for Seattle. Falcons off a huge emotional win followed by short week and long trip. Falcons did not dominate Monday - in fact they were fairly lucky. On the other hand, Seattle absolutely has to step up this week. What's always so frustrating about them is you know they have the talent. Seems like Holmgren doesn't know or care enough to inspire his troops. I'm with you - small play.