Public Fade System

[theGibber1]

going to experiment with something over the next few weeks. personally i am a big believer in the "The Masses are Asses" theory.

the system is simple

using this link

http://www.sportsbook.com/sportsbook/lines_nfl.html

any game the public is over 78% on, i pick the other side for 1/2 unit

just want to give this a shot..

there are a lot of fades this week

86% on Ravens
87% on Pitt
79% on Det
78% on NE
82% on Atl
80% on Stl
85% colts over
80% Pitt over
80% Minn over
85% Stl over

Taking the opposite of each of these very small

ill keep everyone updated if this works or not

gl

 

[Cohanick]

Interesting.

GL Today!!!!!!

 

[bassmaster007]

i looked at the site and could not tell how many are made up of say baltimore 86%, is that out of 100 people,50?

 

[theGibber1]

it doesnt give you the exact numbers

however this is a large website that has had over $1 billion wagered in their sports book.. I think its safe to say that more than 50 people placed a wager on the Balt game.

Is it exact? No im sure it isnt but i do think it gives me a good read about what the general public is on.

 

[west coast guru]

gibber great idea both teams over 80% last week lost straight up as 6.5 pt favorites.....good luck

 

[Rudy]

You can get a bigger sample size at **********.

 

[bassmaster007]

thanks gibber i am currently using anti concensus formula as part of a system that hopefully will turn a profit

 

[kenman]

Fadding CONCENSUS are 6-0 so far... :scared :clap:

 

[Clem D]

Check out my thread on technology office dopes consensus. 71 tech guys..

Football idiots

 

[theGibber1]

7-2

Wow what a day

could be on to something here

 

[Lightning]

Agreed ... I think this system will be profitable most weeks.

 

[trolln4walii]

You have my attention Gibber......and thanks for the link

 

[Statman02]

8-2 80 %...............84% on Dallas tomorrow night........bet it goes to 7 points

 

[block044]

the percentages are based on all of the bets the book has taken. they don't tell you how many bets, only the percentage for which team. i guarantee there are more than 50 or 100 included in these figures. i agree, going against the public works! i also look for decreasing line movement, such as when 80% of people are on say ATL yesterday, but the line went from a pick to sea -1, or 80% on stl and the line went from -1 to +1 by game time. arizona didn't cover, but should have (kind of like the raiders last night), but this can sometime give you the indication of the smart money!

 

[Vinny Vegas]

Nice work...I love that site & use it for CFB as well!!!

 

[gridman]

Here's another one for Monday Nites: On the last Sunday nite game, go against the visiting or home team that wins on Monday. In other words if thre visiting team wins on Sunday nite, play the home team on Monday Nite. Likewise, if the home team wins on Sunday, then play the visiting team on Monday Nite. For this week (only play the regular scheduled game), the play should be Dallas as KC (visitor) won on Sunday. Check it out.
GM

 

[bej0101]

looking good. thanks

 

[Handi Capper]

anti-con on totals from this site was 4-0-1

 

[CrazyHorse]

good stuff gibber, hope you have continued success this year.

Don't have anything on a side in the dallas game but as a fan I don't like that 83% are on dallas

Oh well I would be happy w/ a fg win

 

[straightbutta]

Rookie here, but where do I find the consensus for totals? And whats the difference between sides, money and total? Sorry!!!!