i'm thinking about taking advantage of a unique oppurtunity that may present itself. here goes i have two locals one of which gets his lines from the paper on tuesdays and doesnt usually adjust for movements (occasionally does). then when i place my bets on the weekend (he takes action on college and pro) i usually pound the lines that have moved into my favor (always more in college)..this has worked well but he only allows a $200-300 maximum on individual games...so i'm thinking this year i will try and middle games between my guy that actually moves the lines w/vegas and this guy i mention above who is a retard....what do you guys think about this strategy???
question on middling/hedging/strategy...
- Thread starter s_dooley24
- Start date
I'm no expert so take this for what it's worth:
If you can bet only $300 per game and you place $300 on each side and your juice is 10% and you don't catch a middle you loose $30 per game.......every ten games you loose your out $300, every middle you catch your up $600 ( a push on either side is $300 to the good) So you need to catch a middle once every 20 games to be on the plus side or be out $600.
Have you tracked the spreads the last few weeks to see how many games would have caught a middle for you?
How many games can you play under this system per week?
I doubt this system would work well by picking 1 or 2 games a week .........
If you can bet only $300 per game and you place $300 on each side and your juice is 10% and you don't catch a middle you loose $30 per game.......every ten games you loose your out $300, every middle you catch your up $600 ( a push on either side is $300 to the good) So you need to catch a middle once every 20 games to be on the plus side or be out $600.
Have you tracked the spreads the last few weeks to see how many games would have caught a middle for you?
How many games can you play under this system per week?
I doubt this system would work well by picking 1 or 2 games a week .........
This is such a prosperous situation to be in that the only thing you need worry about is hammering one man in excess; of course, most likely the man with the static lines. I suspect that cleaning his clock week after week will eventually lead to: A) he cuts you off B) he wises up and moves to a more intelligent way of handing out lines.
Your course of action is clear as a rocky mountain stream my friend. Study the line movements, especially college/college totals. You look for the key middle numbers of course where your rocking chair numbers are 3, 4, 7, 10 etc. on game bets and likewise with totals (numbers like 34, 35, 41, 42, etc.) Any position that give you two solid numbers that will bring home the middle should qualify as an automatic play. For example 3.5 and 6.5 -- it is time to call your mortgage broker.
Many times you will see a good numbers in a PUSH scenario like Saints +4 and Giants -3. I would still middle that scenario for the maximum bet, obviously settling for a PUSH and a win with $30 risk to win $270 if the Giants win by a field goal. However, Saturday NCAAs can keep you so busy with a big card of plays that you will find far less excitement in the NFL due to tinier gaps to pound.
Your situation reminds me of one time at a Rolling Stones concert. They quit selling beer about 2/3 through the show and I was wandering through the concourse, jonesing for a cold one. I notice this area that is partitioned off where they had some hospitality setup before the concert. There are all these chrome serving dishes and sterno cans. Most of the stuff is covered with white linen tableclothes. Well there is nobody around and I take a peek under this tablecloth at the end of the table and there is a freakin keg of beer there, still on ice.
The Gods are pleased with me, I thought. And I found a cup and start tapping this beer. Well some dude comes up behind me and says, "What the hell do you think you're doing!?!" I muttered an apology and set the beer down and started to walk off and the guys says, "Hey, I'm just kidding, man! Ain't it great!" He had been back and forth a number of times.
So I go back and tell my buddies and before you know it we had six or eight guys going back and forth tapping this keg until some security guy figured out what we were doing and stopped the flow of the golden nectar. The moral of the story is when you find the gravy train, don't tell all your friends -- just keep riding that train baby.
Your course of action is clear as a rocky mountain stream my friend. Study the line movements, especially college/college totals. You look for the key middle numbers of course where your rocking chair numbers are 3, 4, 7, 10 etc. on game bets and likewise with totals (numbers like 34, 35, 41, 42, etc.) Any position that give you two solid numbers that will bring home the middle should qualify as an automatic play. For example 3.5 and 6.5 -- it is time to call your mortgage broker.
Many times you will see a good numbers in a PUSH scenario like Saints +4 and Giants -3. I would still middle that scenario for the maximum bet, obviously settling for a PUSH and a win with $30 risk to win $270 if the Giants win by a field goal. However, Saturday NCAAs can keep you so busy with a big card of plays that you will find far less excitement in the NFL due to tinier gaps to pound.
Your situation reminds me of one time at a Rolling Stones concert. They quit selling beer about 2/3 through the show and I was wandering through the concourse, jonesing for a cold one. I notice this area that is partitioned off where they had some hospitality setup before the concert. There are all these chrome serving dishes and sterno cans. Most of the stuff is covered with white linen tableclothes. Well there is nobody around and I take a peek under this tablecloth at the end of the table and there is a freakin keg of beer there, still on ice.
The Gods are pleased with me, I thought. And I found a cup and start tapping this beer. Well some dude comes up behind me and says, "What the hell do you think you're doing!?!" I muttered an apology and set the beer down and started to walk off and the guys says, "Hey, I'm just kidding, man! Ain't it great!" He had been back and forth a number of times.
So I go back and tell my buddies and before you know it we had six or eight guys going back and forth tapping this keg until some security guy figured out what we were doing and stopped the flow of the golden nectar. The moral of the story is when you find the gravy train, don't tell all your friends -- just keep riding that train baby.
just glanced at some college games and ohio state was installed as a 9 pt fav and now they're down to 7pts so if implemented the above strategies (combining what pepper and vinnie said) i would play
1. iowa +9 ($300) line now in my favor-free 2pts
2. ohio st-7 ($275)
osu wins by 7 = +$300
osu wins by less than 7 = even pretty much
osu wins by 8= +$575
osu wins by 9= +$275
osu wins by more than 9= -$55
correct??
1. iowa +9 ($300) line now in my favor-free 2pts
2. ohio st-7 ($275)
osu wins by 7 = +$300
osu wins by less than 7 = even pretty much
osu wins by 8= +$575
osu wins by 9= +$275
osu wins by more than 9= -$55
correct??
