Fresno St. :thumb:
This weekend Oregon will be 1 or 4 Pac 10 schools playing a ranked opponent. I think Fresno St. is a legit top 25 ranked team and IMO one of the better teams on the west coast! Oregon has USC in town next week, and no matter how much coach Belloti warns them against looking ahead, I guarantee you every Duck player has the Trojans either in their conscious or subconscious mind.
The question I have for the Ducks is do they have enough to beat both the Trojans and the Bulldogs? My guess is they do not. I feel they must choose between the two teams. Here is what I mean. Oregon's chances against USC are greatly increased if the O scheme and D scheme used surprise USC (particularly the O scheme, as SC has a ton of inexperience on D). So, if the Ducks show too much against the Bulldogs, the USC D and O will be better prepared for the game. Thus, Oregon's best chances against SC is to keep most of its O and D under wraps against the Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs, however, have no such limitation. They can let it all hang out. USC, likewise, most likely does not have to show much on either O or D to beat the Razorbacks.
If the Ducks hold back scheme against the Bulldogs, my guess is the Ducks lose the game. However, if the Ducks show a lot against the Bulldogs, I think the Ducks lessen their chances against the Trojans.
The Bulldogs are very, very good. Oregon must choose - show as much as you have to attempt to beat the Bulldogs or hold back and hope you can squeak past the Bulldogs and then confuse the Trojans the following week. Pac 10 play is more important then OOC play, AND upsetting #1 ranked team does wonders for the Oregon program. Oregon?s goal is to win the Pac 10, not the BCS.
Oregon only rushed the ball for 87 yards last week in 38 attempts vs Div 1-AA Montana. NOT IMPRESSIVE! Oregon is installing the spread offense and they are having difficulty. Especially with the rushing game. To prove my point, Oregon has kicked 11 FG?s this season. Their red zone offense is struggling because of the new spread offense AND weak OL.
FSU HC Pat Hill (who I think is a great coach), admits that this is his best team ever! It certainly is one of the most experienced teams in the country. Returning 9 offense and 8 defense.
The key number in this game for FSU is 28pts as Fresno St. is 8-0 ATS past 3 seasons when they score 28 points, conversely, Oregon is 22-40 ATS past 8 years when they allow 28 points. In addition, Fresno St. is 16-4 ATS vs Pac 10 since 1992. 8-1 ATS last 9 against Pac 10.
The key matchup in this game is FSU OL vs Oregon DL. Everyone knows FSU is a smash mouth program. Oregon?s weakness on defense is their secondary while their strength is their DL lead by the #1 DT in the country Ngata. I think whoever wins this battle wins the game. But FSU has one slight advantage. They can throw the ball too! They have a talented and experienced QB Pinegar to go along with an experienced WR corps. Pinegar spreads the ball around and gets everyone involved. So if Oregon wins the battle in the trenches, why couldn?t FSU exploit the weak Oregon secondary? HC Hill has the horses to do whatever he wants against the Oregon D. Oregon DL will be without their starting DE Devan Long. He is their best pass rusher and this hurts them greatly! Oregon is also without prized freshman recruit RB Stewart but Oregon has 2 other talented backs. On the flip side, FSU will be without star DE Garrett McIntyre.
On defense, FSU returns 7 starters (excluding McIntyre) and 4 of their top 5 tacklers. 6 of their top 8 tacklers. (excluding McIntyre) Experience is not an issue and there is a lot of talent on FSU. BTW, Fresno St. always plays with an attitude against BCS opponents. FSU is 13-2 ATS vs teams from BCS conf. As a USC fan with FSU on the schedule, I am very worried about that game. I think they can ?compete? with any team in the country.
An added bonus........
*Fresno St. is 18-3 ATS as non con. Dogs
*Fresno St. is 18-11-1 ATS their last 30 games after a straight up win
*Oregon is 4-16 ATS as favs vs .500 > opponent
*Oregon is 1-10 ATS as home favorites vs. .500 > opponent
*Oregon is 1-13 ATS as favs vs opponent off a straight up win (FSU beat Weber St. last week)
*Oregon is 0-3 ATS since 1996 vs Fresno St.
TREND GOY #3 ON FRESNO ST. WOW! 
Go Bulldogs!
