USC vs Oregon Analysis

[Scott4USC]

Seems to be a lot of interest on the USC/Oregon game. I capped it and here are my notes. I am not betting on USC because I already have huge bet on them to win the NC. So no need to wager on them. I am just rooting for SU win. But after this write-up, you might bet USC BIG!

Oregon only beat Fresno St. by 3pts with refs cheating FSU out of a victory. I think FSU was called for 15 penalties for 190 yards vs 6 penalties for Oregon for 60 yards. Oregon also fumbled when down 17-0 to FSU and despite instant replay, Refs still ruled Oregon man down. It was clearly a fumble and announcers even thought so. Oregon scored a TD on next play! FSU easily would beat Oregon without the refs heavily favoring Oregon. It was really sad and I feel bad for HC Pat Hill. Also FSU drove ball twice to Oregon 10 yard line and kicked 2 FG's. On flip side, Oregon scored 1 TD on 4th and 1 where the RB ran for 20 yard TD. Another TD Oregon scored was off a 3rd and 9 and I think they threw a 40yard TD pass. Add this all up, plus the refs royally screwing FSU, Oregon only won by 3pts at home? FSU is a tough team but that doesn't imrpess me a whole lot from Oregon.

Oregon has a weak red zone offense. Prior to the FSU game, Oregon kicked 11 FG's. This was against Houston and a 1aa opponent. Neither have solid 1a defenses. Against FSU Oregon scored on big plays not plays inside red zone. Carroll forces teams to drive down the field. That is something Oregon can't do. Carroll has 2 strategies on defense. STOP THE RUN and DON"T GIVE UP THE BIG PLAY. That is his philosophy. This works VERY well against this Oregon team. Oregon has NFL talent but they are using the spread offense. Look for Oregon to get $hit load of yards against USC but not score TD's.

I didn't watch the Oregon vs Montana game but the Oregon D looked below average against Houston and Fresno St. They give up big plays repeatedly. Houston had over 400 yards offense against the Ducks and the only reason Oregon pulled away was Houston had no depth and was worn out. Last week Houston lost to UTEP by 3pts and vegas had UTEP double digit favorites!

Fresno St. had over 500 yards of offense against Oregon. FSU is known as a smash mouth team, and they still passed for over 400 yards!!! this was only FSU's 2nd game of season with their opening game against Weber St. So Oregon was the first test of FSU while Oregon had played 2 games prior and 1 against a div. 1a opponent.

Oregon secondary is prob. on par with the Arkansas secondary. We saw how USC passed against Arkansas. :scared Oregon has a better DL than Arky so USC will have a harder time rushing the ball. BTW, the #1 pass rusher for Oregon did not play last week against FSU because of injury. Not sure if he will play against USC.

I predict the USC offense will score over 50pts. Only thing stopping the USC offense from scoring over 50pts is TIME and POSSESSIONS. Not joking. The USC offense will score almost everytime they touch the ball. USC punter will punt 3 times max in every game this season.

Carroll has NEVER let a team score over 40pts against him. This years defense is the most talented and fastest D EVER under Pete Carroll. Only problem is NO EXPERIENCE!

I expect USC to score over 50 and Oregon to score 20-30pts. If Oregon turns the ball over, GAME OVER and it will be an easy cover for USC.

2 negatives to this game. #1 @Autzen is one of the most hostile road environments. VERY LOUD!
#2 Oregon has NFL talent offense and USC lost their #2 DB for the season last week. Oregon should be able to pass the ball effectively and I am not sure how Carroll will gameplan. My guess is keep everything in front.

Positive is against Arkansas USC O was very vanilla. Ran BASIC plays. USC might break out some of the good stuff against Oregon where it is very tough to play and USC needs to jump on them!

One more thing. Leinart will be playing all 4 quarters! If he doesn't, that means USC covers the spread!

 

[CWood97]

After this write up, I'm still betting.......

Oregon +21' and money line :firing:

 

[dlvlsu]

LOL Me too!

 

[vyrus858]

After this write up, I'm still betting.......

Oregon +21' and money line :firing:

CWood I am SO GLAD TO SEE YOU ON THIS...this is my biggest bet in a long time, I absolutley LOVE OREGON here in Eugene with Clemens, Whitehead and that recieveing core...should be a great game

 

[ScreaminPain]

My God, some people never learn!

First, let me say this...I'M NOT BETTING THE SIDE IN THIS GAME!

Listen to Scott. He's obviously a "homer" but he makes perfect sense here. USC's offense is seemingly unstopable, especially by the Ducks porous D. Against Arkansas, SC scored 4 TD's in the first qtr. alone....all in the span of 6 plays :scared ....then went on to score a TD in EVERY posession the first half.

The Trojans are better in every offensive position, and the Ducks D is suspect.

Covering the -21 is debatable, but I think to take the Ducks on the ML is folly. I agree with Scott that the Trojans may score 50...Hell, I think they may cover the over (63) by themselves.

It'l be a nice payday if you can hit it, but I wouldn't break the kids piggy bank to get that bet down.

 

[gjn23]

couple of points from another pac-10 guy

sc struggles each year in their first cof road game

oregon is not as good as i thought and dont think they present a true challenge to beat sc, however 21 is a lot to cover on the road but i wouldnt bet against sc

a better ml bet would be asu at home next week (and i hate those mfers) as they might be able to match sc score for score

havent officially seen a total yet, but if it's 63 i'd take the over and sit back and watch

 

[Scott4USC]

The Arkansas DC is quoted as saying USC is the most dominating team he has ever seen. He said if USC doesn't graduate their players after this season, they will ruin college football.

I posted the stats on the Oregon defense above. Here is a stat about the USC offense which is OFF THE CHARTS!

USC has had 16 possessions with Matt Leinart in the game. The results: 13 TDs, 1 int. (on a terrible non-call in the endzone), 1 missed field goal, and 1 end of the half. No punts. :nooo:

16 possessions for 13 TDs - Wow. And it easily could have been 14 if not for the ridiculous non-call against Hawaii in the end zone where the DB PUSHED USC WR Jarret. And the other two possessions were not exactly stops by the other team's D. One drive was stopped with TE Byrd and his personal foul = missed FG. Other drive the half ended and USC ran it out.

So I guess this begs the question: has the first team USC offense legitimately been stopped yet this year?

*Remember, USC is the only offense in the country where the COACHING STAFF INTENTIONALLY SLOWS THEMSELVES DOWN FROM SCORING!

 

[freelancc]

has the first team USC offense legitimately been stopped yet this year?

if USC happens to be looking past Oregon it will be because of UCLA..

 

[Scott4USC]

gjn23 brought up great point. USC has struggled BIG TIME in their first conf game and seems like USC always play their first conf. game on the road.

USC has lost 4 of their last 5 conf. openers and last year USC beat Stanford in a very close game.

Every year the USC offense was a huge question mark early in season while this year it is the defense that has a question mark. I have no idea how the USC defense will play against Oregon. Will be fun to find out!

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

adding some thoughts

USC is the most dominant college football team this year and last. not really much of a debate. doesn't mean they will win every game, but I don't see any reason why they won't. Forget the argument over schedules and which conference is tougher, USC can beat anyone in the country on any given day. Will they? remains to be seen. Maybe Texas and Va Tech can hang with them, maybe not. One of those two will likely get the chance. But its gonna be a road game for them.

Laying 21 points or more in conference on the road is generally a bad idea. USC can score at will against anyone on their remaining schedule. The title game if they get their will obviously be their toughest test. The problem with this game is that we haven't seen USC's defense yet this year. Sure we saw them play Hawaii in a rebuilding year without Timmy Chang and a brutal Arkansas team. But in both those situations the teams were brain-dead after the first quarter so we didn't see the defense in situations in which pass or run in a meaningful situation comes into play. Lets face it when you are down 30 or more, you aren't running up the gut trying to just move the chains. Oregons defense is definitely suspect, but it will be by far and away the toughest test of the 3 games USC will have played so far. Its not to say it isn't great, its just that we haven't seen it.

Don't waste your money on the money line with Oregon. No matter how much some of you want to see it, it just isn't gonna happen. This game has BACKDOOR written all over it.

I wouldn't touch this game with your money. Will USC win, yes. Will they cover, who knows? The over seems logical, but logical doesn't always work, and they've already played 2 games that flew way over, and now you get two offenses and the total at 69 seems mighty low. I can definitely tell you books will be rooting for the under no matter what the number settles on.

Anyway, gl with your plays and season, I just think its best to watch from the sidelines on this one, and if you really are an action junkie, maybe a small play on the over, but its gonna be a popular play.

gl

 

[Scott4USC]

Here is a take from a Trojan fan who lives in Oregon who also follows both Oregon schools. Good analysis which focuses on Oregon.

****

My impressions on the Ducks are basically the same as the last couple of years. They have some very nice talent at the skill positions, but their defense is leaky and not the deepest overall.

Injury reports: It's my understanding that Jonathan Stewart won't play. He has been fighting a sprained ankle and it's just not responding. He practiced yesterday but tweaked his ankle again. He didn't sound like a guy who will play Saturday(Terrell Jackson has looked pretty decent in limited action behind Whitehead). Devan Long, their fine DE and brother of the former Outland Trophy winner, is practicing again after spraining a knee against Houston. He'll play. Brian Paysinger, a pretty speedy WR, practiced for the first time yesterday(back from a torn knee ligament). He's 50-50.

Their was a question about the Ducks OL. Well, I guess the best thing I can say about them is they're big. They have a couple of guys(T Schwartz and G Ma Sun) who are in the 350 range. G Reynoso and C Lucas are the only guys with any real experience. Although this group is inexperienced can they be any worse than last year's OL(Ducks gave up more sacks than any other Pac10 team last season)? With their new spread offense and them now using Clemens more as an option runner they won't have to hold their blocks as long. Still, I don't think this is one of the better OL's in the conference.

The deepest unit on the team, IMO, are the receivers. A good group. D.Williams is one of the best in the league, if not nation. J.Finley will tell anyone who will listen about his ability. He's physical, has good size and runs pretty well after the catch. Garrett Strong is another big target. Colvin has a lot of ability and seems to be getting more comfortable in their system. Paysinger will give them another speed element and J.Williams is raw, but does have talent. Perhaps the most intriguing guy on the team is Jordan Kent, the track/basketball player(he's the first 3 sport athlete in the conference since ASU's, J.D. Hill). A month ago Kent didn't even know how to put his uniform on(I'm serious. He's never played organized tackle football before this season). But he's tall(6'5), has good hops(state long jump and triple jump champ in HS-100m and 200m as well), and could well be the fastest guy in the conference. He's only been used on streak patterns so far(he looks confused out on the field). He'll burn some team this year, but I seriously doubt if it will be this week.

UO is using Tim Day as an H-back some to get Dante Rosario on the field too as a TE. Both have size and ability. Day compares well with former Duck TE, George Wrightster, now playing in the NFL. Last year Bellotti called Rosario their best athlete on the team. He could play several different positions if given the chance(personally, I think UO should have made him a LB'er).

Defensively, same old Ducks. I listened to friends and read reports all off season about how much their secondary would be improved. Well, I haven't noticed much difference. The Ducks are basically going with two LB's(Trucks-he's a good player, and the over-achieving, Brett Haberly, a former walk-on who just received a scholarship). A.J. Tuitele is a sort of combo linebacker-saftey. He'll hit you but isn't the greatest defender of the pass that I've witnessed.

It's at the corners where UO is vunerable. A.Gipson has tons of experience. He has pretty good wheels. Now the bad news. He gambles much too often and can be burned on hitch patterns. His lack of height is a problem when going against taller/more physical receivers. Jackie Bates has some potential and I think the Ducks should keep him out there. J.D.Nelson(son of Stanford great, Darrin), the FS, is like Tuitele. He'll hit you but not the best against the pass. J.Phinisee can be used at either S or CB. He's OK. Ducks also play Kwame Agyeman like Tuitele. Another raw player, but athletic nonetheless.

The DL gets most of the pub on defense, but honestly, I don't think they've played all that well. I'm sure getting Long back will help(he's a good pass rusher). The other DE, D.Sanders, is quick if not the strongest guy. Most of you know about DT, Haloti Ngata. Big as the moon. Can be really disruptive when he wants to be. The thing is, he doesn't always seem to play with great enthusiasm. Somebody needs to light a fire underneath this guy. He could do so much more, IMO. The other DT, Matt Toeaina, is decent. They have some depth along this unit. A good group, but not great, IMO.

Kicker Martinez has been a real surprise. Has something like 12 or 13 FG's. Nice leg too from 46 yards or so in. Same can't be said about the punting. They have only average 33 yards a punt so far and the punter for Saturday's game could be either Matt Dragich(he handled the position so far) or Aaron Knowles. No matter who we see, I doubt they are planning on punting to Bush.

Speaking of Reggie, Bellotti had a good line about him. He(Bellotti) was asked how he plans on stopping Bush? "Well, we're hoping he doesn't get on the plane."

Bellotti also said USC's offense is the best he's ever seen(until now he thought Penn St's offense in 94 was the best he's played-they had three #1 NFL draft choices and one #2 draft choice on that offense).

I have to tell you, the Ducks don't sound like the most confident of teams. Don't get me wrong, they're saying all the right things-"on any given day," "we want to see where we're at," ect.

Finally, if the Ducks are to have any chance they are going to have to have Clemens best game ever. And their WR's are going to have to come up huge, time and time again. I don't see UO running for all that much. And if Clemens keeps running as much as he has in the first three games he could get killed. I expect to see Dixon for a series or two, just as a change of pace. But he's not going to hurt the Trojans in my mind. He's kind of like a skinner version of Isiah Stanback. Dixon is athletic and mobile, but his passes go all over the place.

Even if UO can move the ball how in the world are they going to stop SC's offense? I don't see how. I suspect SC will put up at least 40. That's about twice as much as I see the Ducks getting.

 

[ferdville]

Can somebody refresh my memory as to Oregon's standing as far as pass defense in relation to all Division 1 teams? I think USC's air attack will be quite at home, weather permitting.

 

[doochuk]

USC will rise to the hype of this game and show why they are #1---Oregon is not even close to staying in this game IMO we will see but i will take my chances with the Trojans...

 

[RexBudler]

USC will rise to the hype of this game and show why they are #1---Oregon is not even close to staying in this game IMO we will see but i will take my chances with the Trojans...

I agree Doo, gl to you

 

[doochuk]

back at ya Rex take care

 

[bgold13]

USC will cover by the end of the 1st quarter... USC 70 ORE 21

 

[RIGHT SIDE]

GL Scotty!!! I love the Trojans also!! When they go to CAL I think that'll be the game that may concern you, but Oregon isn't that good IMO. I don't think they score 70 again, but definetly in the 40's 50's and Oregon will be lucky to get 21 IMO....

 

[Scott4USC]

GL Scotty!!! I love the Trojans also!! When they go to CAL I think that'll be the game that may concern you, but Oregon isn't that good IMO. I don't think they score 70 again, but definetly in the 40's 50's and Oregon will be lucky to get 21 IMO....

Thanks. I think ASU and ND scare me. Cal doesn't so much because USC is a machine at the end of the year. With the DB issues, @ASU and @ND scare me. Hell, @Oregon could turn into an upset. USC is very vulnerable right now. Actually this weekend USC will be the most vuilnerable of all season unless major injuries happen at key positions.

GO WAR EAGLE!

 

[bgold13]

ASU would scare the hell out of me if i were sc... 12 30 start in tempe = 105 degrees.. asu offense will be the best they face... that game could see 100 points scored...

oregon doesn't have the fire power to keep up...
cal will live and die with marshawn.. i'm a cal fan and can't see them hanging with the trojans

notre dame will scare sc as well

 

[Scott4USC]

ASU would scare the hell out of me if i were sc... 12 30 start in tempe = 105 degrees.. asu offense will be the best they face... that game could see 100 points scored...

oregon doesn't have the fire power to keep up...
cal will live and die with marshawn.. i'm a cal fan and can't see them hanging with the trojans

notre dame will scare sc as well

One problem with ASU. YOUR COACH! He likes to throw the deep ball and make big plays. Carroll doesn't allow that. ASU also isn't a threat to run the ball. However, ASU has an ok defense and excellent passing attack. That makes ASU tougher opponent than Oregon. That and ASU's lack of a running game hurt ASU last year vs USC. IMO ASU will do it again.

ASU already playing LSU will help them a ton againt USC and give ASU confidence.

The weather favors USC IMO. USC athletes are better conditioned and will wear ASU down. Remember, USC can play smash mouth football, ball control offense, or quick strike offense. They can do whatever they want. I know ASU defense is poor against the run and USC is the best rushing team IMO in the country. with 2 RB's to throw at them. USC is also the deeper team. All in all, I think the weather favors USC!