Week 4 Card (Sept 21-24th)

Irish

Green&Orange
Forum Member
Jan 8, 2004
3,850
16
0
48
OH
UTEP (-2.5) over New Mexico
The Lobos are a solid 3-0 team that showed off a great running game against New Mexico St a game that was no where close as the score showed. Both Moore and QB McKamey had great games rushing the ball. I?m not 100% solid on the Lobos because I don?t think they have played the best teams, but either has UTEP. Both teams have played New Mexico St and both hung a pretty good number on them. BUT the Lobos played them at home on Senior night and the miners played them @ N.Mexico St and on the first game of the season. First you have to look at the Houston game in which the miners threw 2 picks and fumbled 2 times plus gave up 100 plus yards in penalties. Even though the miners gave up over 500 yards of offense they also picked off the ball 5 times. Still even down 14 in the third the miners battled back and won in OT. This might be a bad thing if they are emotionally spent or this might be a good thing because they came together to over come. Ebell is a solid scat back that has great speed but putting the ball on the turf is not going to get it done. These teams have 2 different styles, one a rusher and the other a passer. However IMO the UTEP defense is better suited against the run then the pass. However the Lobos can throw the ball and if they do it is going to be Basett (sp) that gets those passes. Losing West and Ward on the d-line to injury is going to hurt the miners but speedy LBs should help against the run. They need to have a big game because if they shut down Moore they shut down the lobos. Still the offense for the miners should be enough to pass all day, and if they limit the turnovers they could put up a pretty big number on this team. The speed on the screen pass is also an edge for UTEP, because the lobos will be trying to get to Palmer they can set up the screen and Ebell should take it the rest of the way.

Cheers
Irish
 

soljah67

Registered User
Forum Member
Dec 14, 2004
224
2
0
As long as Ebell is able to hold on to the ball, UTEP should be able to win with ease. His turnovers vs Houston were costly, luckily for him UTEP was still able to win due to Houston's QB Kolb's many interceptions. Was unaware of the Lobo defensive players being out, will look more into this game as I feel Palmer will get better as the season goes along and Ebell will find a way to hold on to the ball better.
 

pt1gard

Registered
Forum Member
Apr 7, 2002
7,377
3
0
seattle
nice post IRISH, i was looking hard at utep bc I felt they were "too excited" to play well vs HOU ... Now maybe they'll hyper down some ... NM is no slouch tho, their RD record LY was darn good and they have more starters back than UTEP ... Im mulling too, Ebell coughs killed me last week

gl, gregg
 

Irish

Green&Orange
Forum Member
Jan 8, 2004
3,850
16
0
48
OH
Wisky (+3) over Michigan
The wolverines have not been strong against the run at all this season. Now they get the badgers running machine Calhoun. The defense has come to play in the last two games after getting roasted by Bowling Green. The badgers held UNC to only 57 rushing yards and 5 points. Now they open up their big ten play at home and getting three points. Now Michigan did beat up on an E. Michigan but they didn?t look strong against ND and N. Ill ran the ball well on big Blue. The badgers have done it both ways by out scoring Bowling Green and stopping UNC. This is Michigan?s first away game and Wisky plays well at home! This is Alverez?s last go around too, and this would be a nice present for coach. Even though I?m not sold on the Badgers QB play but he has the ability to make some plays but he has to show more accuracy. But a QB on the college level should be able to use play action with the badgers running game to make some big plays down the field. IMO the Michigan defense will be on their heels all day and mixing up play calls should have the badgers in control. Some injuries on the defensive line hurt a little but the badgers play fast and hit big ten hard. A tough game but the points at home with the running game is too hard to pass on.

Cheers
Irish
 

Irish

Green&Orange
Forum Member
Jan 8, 2004
3,850
16
0
48
OH
Boise (-7.5) over BG
Smurf turf and two big offenses go at it tonight but I think Boise will show its true colors at home tonight. Boise 0-2 and both games were on the road and both against pretty solid teams. Boise and Bowling Green had been off a week setting up for this game. The Broncos allowed 336.5 passing yards per game and a pass efficiency of 176.52 NOT GOOD. But they get the leader of the secondary back this week in Cam Hall (miss some games due to a run in with the law). And the Boise coach challenged his team to be more aggressive in the secondary. The defense hasn't been terrible but they haven't forced turnovers something they did a lot of last year. Falcons will be facing a Boise State team which owns the nation's longest winning streak at home (25 games). That adds confidence to the Boise players and this id the third away game for the falcons. All things considered I think the Bowling Green defense is out right terrible. Wisky ran the ball every play and ran over the Falcons defenders every time. Granted thats the badgers o-line and they are a lot bigger than Boise but Ball st also racked up 160 rushing yards. It is a whole different story on the smurf turf.

Cheers
Irish
 

Irish

Green&Orange
Forum Member
Jan 8, 2004
3,850
16
0
48
OH
Air Force (+7) over Utah
TCU ran all over the Utes with a poor o-line. Utah allows 165 yards rushing per contest and against some terrible teams. Now the Falcons come into Utah and bring with them the 13th best rushing offense in the NCAA. Air Force averages 258 yards per contest on the ground. The surprising stat is the Falcons also have put up an average of 160 yards through the air and Shaun Carney has looked sharp completing about 60% of his passes. The Air Force defense is giving up just 120 yards per contest and they are the 48th ranked defense still that isn?t against offenses like Utah. Air Force holds the series lead at 13-8 but have lost the last 2 match-ups. STILL This Air force team had a 14 point lead last year only to lose 49-35 in Salt Lake last year. In 2003 The Falcons took this Utah team to triple overtime, and those Utah teams were a lot better than this squad. Coming off its first loss of the season Utah?s offense looked normal and Brian Johnson missed some open looks down field. Air Force is going to play hard and it should be a dog fight, also the Falcons set up on defense well against the Utah. However the running game of Air Force is going to be productive all day, and if Utah puts 10 or even 11 in the box Carney will beat them over the top. The Air Force offense has some great option/ wishbone play-action, that should exploit the Utah defense. The Utah defense is strong up front but they have been pushed around in its other games and this Air Force o-line should have similar success.

Cheers
Irish
 

Scott4USC

Fight On!
Forum Member
Sep 11, 2002
5,410
18
38
44
Good luck Irish. Glad to see you on Wiscy and the Falcons. Nice write-ups as always! BTW, nice call on Boise.
 

Irish

Green&Orange
Forum Member
Jan 8, 2004
3,850
16
0
48
OH
Iowa St (-17) over Army
The black knights are fighters and this is going to be a football game but the talent is far in favor of Iowa St. Iowa St out passes and out rushes this team and they bring a pretty solid defense to the table. Baylor beat this team by 10 and the cyclones have a far better team and should be able to hang a big number on the knights as BC did on them in week one. If the cyclones key on the Army running back then the army offense is over. They do not have the passing game and if forced to throw will be intercepted. Iowa St ranks just 78th nationally in rushing offense through two games. Still running on Iowa isn't the easiest task. Iowa St also has turned up the tempo on defense and forced turnovers and if they play with intensity tonight should continue the trend. Having the bye week should dull the hang-over for Iowa but I still expect them to come out a little flat however the talent level on Army just cannot compete. Blythe and Flynn should have no problems beating the Army CBs because the LB's and Safeties will get sucked in on playaction. The do NOT have the recovery speed and big plays should be easy to come by for the cyclones.

Cheers
Irish
 

Irish

Green&Orange
Forum Member
Jan 8, 2004
3,850
16
0
48
OH
N?Western (+8) over Penn St
N?Western at home get to face off against Joe Pa. The wildcat offense is 3rd in the big ten putting up 489 yards per game. N?Western beat Purdue and Ohio St at home last year. They have the capability to run an offense that should put up some points against Penn St. Basanez is a solid QB and has thrown 72-106 for 797 and 4 TD?s this year. A lot of the N?Westerns players are banged up; Cofield is the best pass rusher and needs to get in Robinson?s face. The N?Western defense is not the greatest but IMO Penn St hasn?t looked to sharp on offense and hasn?t played tough teams. Penn St has a very good defense giving up only 276 yards per game. The lions are very good against the run giving up only 47 yards per contest. But this means they allow 230 in the air and Basanez has to make plays! Robinson is playing well, the lions have a lot of talent on offense and defense but they haven?t been on the road yet this season and they did only beat a terrible Cincy team but 18 and a poor South FLA team by 10. N?Western did get hammered by Ariz St, but they beat a pretty good N. Ill. Think you cannot spot this team a full TD at home considering St hasn?t played away or against real talent.

Cheers
Irish
 

Irish

Green&Orange
Forum Member
Jan 8, 2004
3,850
16
0
48
OH
The I've had a few too many play
Ducks (+20) over USC
Under too
Both Smaller plays

Cheers
Irish
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top