Monday Night Total Play

soul train

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Crappy day yesterday :)
New week.....new slate...

I want this game and the college game :mj14:

Let`s get hot this week :mj14:


Denver has allowed a second string quarterback at best(Gus Ferotte) to torch them for 275 yards and two touchdowns in their opening week loss to the Dolphins, 34-10. They allowed 151 rushing yards in that contest. So, they had to make a defensive statement in their next game and to their credit they did just that in beating the Chargers 20-17. Tomlinson was held to only 55 yards rushing but, he did scamper for two rushing touchdowns in the second quarter of that game before the game turned into a defensive struggle.

The Chiefs are back on track this season and started their season by rushing over the Jets for 198 ground yards, but, they allowed 390 total yards of offense. The Seven NY Jet fumbles and one interception didn?t help the Jets cause that day. The Jets were obviously able to move the Ball on the Chiefs.

Next game, they go into Oakland and win 23-17. They again ran for over 100 yards and the Raiders gained 327 net yards. The Chiefs managed to force 3 fumbles in that game.

I think it?s easy to go with the trendy pick of looking at two improved defenses and completely forgetting about the head to head events that usually occur when these two teams meet. Remember, Shanahan and Vermeil have now coached against each other in this role for the last 4 seasons. The Broncos are 5-3 SU since Vermiel took over the Chiefs for the 02 season. The over is 7-1 in those games. Why should the way these two approach each other suddenly change? That?s just my opinion of course.

Both teams are pretty decent against the run and logic dictates that you want to run your offense into your opponents weakness right? Could we very well see a pass oriented approach to tonight?s game by both sides?
We will see!!

It?s so easy to try to overanalyze things but in the end, the trend is your friend.

Supporting trends:

* KC is 6-1 ?over? their last 7 September road games*
* KC is 6-1 ?over? their last 7 as an underdog*
* KC is 5-2 ?over? last 3 seasons with a total of 45.5 to 49*
* KC is 9-4 ?over? last 13 vs. the division*
* KC is 6-2 ?over? off a win vs. a division opponent*
* KC is 7-3-1 ?over? as a division road dog in September*
* KC is 7-3 ?over? their last 10 Monday night road games on Grass*
* KC is 7-4 ?over? last 11 Monday night road games*
* KC is 13-6 ?over? last 19 as a road underdog*
* KC 6-0 "over" last 6 as road dogs of 3 or less*
* KC is 9-4 ?over? on the road off back to back wins*

* Denver is 12-4 ?over? last 16 Monday night appearances*
* Denver is 9-1 ?over? as a favorite of PK to -3 on grass before a conference game*
* Denver is 18-7-1 ?over? at home in weeks 1 through 4 with a non-division conference game on deck*

* ?Over? is 12-4 the last 16 head to head meetings AT Denver*
* ?Over? is 8-2 the last 10 head to head meetings*
* ?Over? has cashed 7 straight between these two.*

BET ID=123420593
Straight Wager 09/26/05 13:56 ET
500.00/454.55 Result: Pending
Chiefs(KansasCity)
Broncos(Denver) 09/26/05 (21:05 ET)
Over 47.5
 

pt1gard

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gl soul, whats the word on Pennington's injury ... I didnt get a good view on that Cherbet's overuling TD, whatd you think?
 

BetterUp

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Thanks for the info..I wonder what you think of K.C. over 22.5 and Den. over 25 for TEAM totals. Both -1.10.

I have San.D. in a Hi/Lo contest and stand to win $250 if neither team scores 45 or more tonight. This seems to be a pretty good middle op.. If I bet them both and only one wins I lose $10. If they both lose I'm gaurenteed the contest.

I'm v hungover today would appreciate any thoughts on if I'm being greedy here.

Thanks BrUp
 

FirstnGoal

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soul train said:
Crappy day yesterday :)
\
\ The Broncos are 5-3 SU since Vermiel took over the Chiefs for the 02 season. The over is 7-1 in those games. Why should the way these two approach each other suddenly change? \

Both teams are pretty decent against the run and logic dictates that you want to run your offense into your opponents weakness right?

I think all those Overs happened over the years mainly because the Chiefs never had a Defense until this season...and the games were always playe up and down the field... inside the numbers reveal the Broncos are ranked 22nd in the league versus the run and the Chiefs sport the leagues 3rd best rushing attack...I hate playing the Under on Monday Nights because I remember too many games where points are put up in bunches in the second half...Good Luck on your play but I'm on UNDER 53.5 with the Chiefs +9 in a 2 game teaser.

Im looking at a 24-20 game.


Good Luck Again!
 

bookkilla

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Great write up. I was leaning towards the OVER but the number seems kinda low to me? I hate it when I start to think too hard.

BetterUp:

I love to play team totals, but those numbers are tough to gauge. Personally, I like the OVER 22.5 for KC.

Edit: I read the line wrong. I saw it @ 43.5 thats why I was wondering why it was so low.
 
Last edited:

Mully

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Trends....

Trends....

I Love Trends! All of my plays are based on them.
The fact that you took the time to post ALL of them leads me to believe you have a large wager on the over toinght.

I'm all over Denver tonight, but the OVER looks to be very strong...

nice post :clap:
 

soul train

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bookkilla said:
Great write up. I was leaning towards the OVER but the number seems kinda low to me? I hate it when I start to think too hard.

BetterUp:

I love to play team totals, but those numbers are tough to gauge. Personally, I like the OVER 22.5 for KC.

Edit: I read the line wrong. I saw it @ 43.5 thats why I was wondering why it was so low.

Bookkiila,it seems to be the precise number..

Last 8 totals...51,47.5,45.5,46.5,47.5,50.5,37.5,48

Considering in past years the Chief offense was
pass oriented...good luck book
 

soul train

Go Mets!
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Jan 10, 2005
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Mully said:
I Love Trends! All of my plays are based on them.
The fact that you took the time to post ALL of them leads me to believe you have a large wager on the over toinght.

I'm all over Denver tonight, but the OVER looks to be very strong...

nice post :clap:

Thanks Mully...

Good luck with the Denver play...

I did not take a side yet,it is either Denver or nothing,we will see :mj14:
 
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