Public fade system

[sittler76]

The system seems to work best on sides, not totals. I made a ton on san fran. Looking forward to the Broncos on MNF

I don't care how many post you have, this is a get idea! keep up the good work! :clap:

I kinda agree with you wlmackey.

Overall you should win on totals as well.

But in my experience not as much as on sides.

That is why my average bets are to win $500 on sides and to win $100 on totals.

This is a year in year out winning system.
I would increase these bets 10 times if my wife would let me. Ha Ha (I'm not joking)

 

[snoozer]

This system is very interesting to me, so I tracked it this weekend. here is how it did. Here are the numbers broken down overall, by spread, by over under.

* win and losses would be what you did if you were the on the SAME side with these guys
Week 3

Philly -9 73% loss
carolina -3 74% loss
STL -7 77% loss
Dallas -7 84% loss
Indy - 14 88% loss
Indy o 47.5 72% loss
NE over 42 73% win
carolina u 36 74% loss
NYG o 43.5 78% win
NO o 45 78% win
Buffalo u 35 79% loss
Philly o 47 83% loss
seattle o 41.5 85% win


start wins losses
over 70% 4 9
over 75% 3 5
over 80% 1 3
over 85% 1 1

over/under
over 70% 4 4
over 75% 3 2
over 80% 1 1
over 85% 1 0

spread
over 70% 0 5
over 75% 0 3
over 80% 0 2
over 85% 0 1

 

[snoozer]

I will post this in the college forum as well, but here are the breakdown for college...

Looks like sticking to the pro's against the spread is the way to go...

Penn St -9 70% loss
cal -29.5 71% loss
hawaii -2.5 71% win
ND -13 73% win
marshall - 3.5 73% loss
Miami - 14 74% win
Ohio st -8.5 76% win
Kan state -24 76% win
Virginia -23.5 78% win
Ohio - 4 78% loss
Bama -16 79% loss
Iowa St -18.5 82% loss
Georgia -16.5 82% loss
Tulsa -2 82% win
CMU -6 83% loss
arizona st -5.5 84% win
South Ca -18.5 87% win
NO Illinois -6.5 88% loss
Louisvill -21 90% loss
Georgia o43 70% loss
Miam o 43.5 70% loss
utah o 55 71% win
ca o58 71% loss
BG o 77 74% loss
FAU o 45 74% win
MSU o 59 81% win
VT o 41 82% win
Purdue o 55 83% win
oregon o 70 84% loss
Penn o 51 84% win
arizona st o66.5 89% loss

win loss
overall 15 16
over 70% 15 16
over 75% 10 9
over 80% 7 7
over 85% 1 3

over/under
over 70% 6 6
over 75% 4 2
over 80% 4 2
over 85% 0 1

spread
over 70% 9 10
over 75% 6 7
over 80% 3 5
over 85% 1 2

 

[coverman]

This system works but not all the time I used it last year and got killed by big 3 Colts Pats Chargers. Every games was 80 percent and they always covered . The books got killed last year on Nfl so it is time to get it back. Use with Clems office pool helps . Go Denver to nite . There is better tool than sportsbook for % though. I do not think I can post it I pay for it by the month.

 

[Mully]

Monday Night Play

Monday Night Play

I was on Denver tonight anyway!
Trend: Denver is 41-17-2 ATS at home vs opponents comming in off a win....

Will increase my wager off the Fade....

Thanks :Yep:

 

[Lightning]

I'm on Denver and the under...

#1) I think KC is legit and along with the Patriots, Steelers, and Colts one of the 4 best teams in the AFC who will definitely make the playoffs this year. The other 2 playoff teams will probably be the Bengals and Jaguars but I think Denver gets this one at home and KC will return the favor later in the year.

#2) KC's D is improved ... Broncos offense in not in sync yet so I think the under comes in here.

#3) The public is on KC and the over!

Good Luck!

 

[bert07]

this is good stuff

thanks much

 

[snoozer]

Only tracked the last 2 weeks, but everything over 78% in week 2 was 7-1 ATS. everything this past weekend over 70% was 5-0.

week 2 I only have what Gibber provided, that is why it is 78%.

This is only against the spread, not on the over under... that seems to be a little more unclear. I will be tracking for a few more weeks, before making large wagers based on it.

It definitely seems to be on target with most other public thoughts. I am in 2 pick'em (ATS) leagues and my buddy is in another... for the most part, they all seem to line up. Everyone in all 3 were on Indy, Dallas and Philly yesterday.

can't get into the sportsbook site right now, but earlier it was KC at 72%

coverman, can you get my email from jack and send me the link. I am really tracking this and would interested in your tool. If you are ok, I can have jack give me your email and we can discuss outside the site.

 

[UT-Longhorn]

so what does it say for tonite? anything?

 

[snoozer]

as of now, there would be no play. the line has dropped to 67%, which does not qualify. Over under is also mid 60's, but as I said earlier, o/u doesn't seem to be as reliable as the spread.

 

[theGibber1]

so what does it say for tonite? anything?

jesus i was not expecting all of this.. glad you guys are so interested

a tough loss last night.. the public was all over the over and it hit before halftime..

tonight is a no play as far as the system i have been using is concerned.

yesterday 89% were on the over...

now it is only 67%

so, just for the sake of keeping the system i started with intact...

no play



see you guys next week

good luck!

gib

 

[coverman]

Snozer get mine from Jack I thinks it up to date I have using this system for some time now. It works most years last year was rough though.

 

[trolln4walii]

Great, great stuff guys!! Thanks for getting the ball rolling Gibber :mj14:

 

[JBBrown2]

Guys,

What would be the best cut off point in which the plays ware made. ex KC i think was over 80 something late Sunday but fell right up before game time. So all im sayin is that it would have been a play Sun but not Mon night. Sometimes a lot of "smart money" comes in a couple of hours before gametime (on Denver of course) so if that was they case yesterday with KC and Denver then it would have been better to say make the play official Sunday night and ignore what the percentage did before gametime. This would be the same for all the games. I know this isn't a huge deal but was wondering what everyone thought. Decide what the play is right before kickoff or decide late late Saturday night Sunday night etc.

Just Pondering
JB

 

[JBBrown2]

In reference to what i just said here is what im going to try and do. I will copy all the lines and percentages @ Midnight Saturday night if I'm sober enough and figure the winning percentage for the next few weeks. I will do the same @ 5 min before kickoff and we will see which games became no plays (or plays) and how they would have done in both circumstances.

 

[snoozer]

JB,
my totals were all after the fact, but for the most part, I think most of them were similiar an hour before the game. I have not checked what they are earlier in the week.

I think for Sunday games, you will not see much fluctuation in the lines between 3 hours before and 30 minutes before.

I think Monday night games is a different animal. I think people bet different on Monday, than they do for other games. I think a lot of people wait until Monday to bet based on how they did on sunday.

I know I took Denver last night because at about 3pm, the number was at 72% for KC (had to bet early didn't think I would have access to a computer). I almost hedged my bet after I saw it drop to 67%, but kept it, since the system made me a nice winner on sunday

 

[coverman]

Hey Snoozer did you get my email.

 

[Morris]

Gibber,
Do you think the big % swings from any one day indicate a small betting group on this site? And I don't know if 10 people or 100 would change the outcome? My guess is you would get the same results. I think the % would be the same for 50 or 100 but not for a small group. MJ used to have a consensus forum but I don't see it now

 

[wlmackey]

coverman how can i get that address. i would like to improve on sportsbook.

i used sportsbook for Den and San Fran last week, saved my bankroll

 

[wlmackey]

JMO on the Denver game, you have to look at the line also. in the Denver game while all the money came in on Denver in the last few hours the line never moved. I think line movement is important to look at. Check out the USC/ASU game, sportsbook say 80% of the money is on USC and the line has moved from -17 to -16. WHY???