Week 4 Misc Analysis

[Senor Capper]

09/27/2005 - by Andy Iskoe



One early season trend concerns the results of inter-conference games. Last season AFC teams won a whopping 44 of 64 games against NFC foes. Through three weeks of this season the conferences have split their first dozen games.



Just five teams remain unbeaten as we go to press, with that number favored to fall to four should Kansas City lose as an underdog at Denver Monday night. The 3-0 start for Indianapolis is not a surprise but similar starts by Cincinnati and Tampa Bay are.

And with a bye last week Washington has started 2-0 with wins by the slimmest of margins, defeating Chicago by 2 and Dallas by 1 point.

Five teams remain winless with both Houston and Baltimore starting 0-2 and looking to have gotten a benefit from their early season bye week. At 0-3 Oakland, Arizona and Green Bay have greatly disappointed their fans.

Chicago, Cleveland, Miami and Pittsburgh have their byes this weekend. Here?s a look at this week?s action.

San Diego (+5?) at New England (Over/Under 47): San Diego was impressive in handling the New York Giants Sunday night as RB Ladanian Tomlinson finally was made the centerpiece of the offense and responded in a huge way. New England controlled their game at Pittsburgh more than their three point win would suggest. Both teams are stronger on the offensive side of the football and New England?s injury and situation suggests the Chargers will be able to move the ball and score points. OVER the Total is the play.

Denver (+4) at Jacksonville (37?): Denver hosted Division rival Kansas City Monday night and will be off of back to back home Divisional games as they travel to Jacksonville. Their week one trip to Florida resulted in a one sided upset loss in Miami. Jacksonville is not the type of team that blows teams away but the negative situations for Denver and the solid early season play of the Jaguars, especially on defense, give the hosts enough of an edge to project a win by at least a TD. JACKSONVILLE.

Houston (+10) at Cincinnati (42): Houston made a change at offensive coordinator during their Bye week but it will take time for any changes to show on the playing field. QB David Carr continues to lack the protection of his offensive line and Cincy is off of back to back weeks in which they picked of five passes against Minnesota and Chicago. The Bengals are playing with confidence and that type of defensive performance suggests that Carr will be forced into bad decisions. Laying double digits with the Cincy Bengals? Whoda thunk it? But times change quickly in the NFL. CINCINNATI.

Indianapolis (+6?) at Tennessee (45): The supposedly high powered Indy offense has been held to less than two touchdowns in two of their first three games. Instead it has been the Colts? defense that?s played the major role in their 3-0 start. Tennessee has shown steady improvement on offense under offensive coordinator Norm Chow and will be the best offense the Colts will have faced to date. They are likely to force a quick pace which in turn will have the Colts? offense pick up their pace from recent weeks. Indy has scored over 28 points in both meetings the past two seasons. OVER the Total.

Philadelphia (+2?) at Kansas City (46?): KC is off of back to back Divisional road games but returns home where they have been historically one of the league?s best teams in both winning and losing seasons. Philly has rebounded from their opening week loss in Atlanta to win a pair of home games against a two weak defensive teams. Both teams have potent offenses and defenses that appear to be improved, especially that of the Chiefs. The Chiefs do have the better running game and that is enough to recommend the Chiefs at a FG or less. KANSAS CITY.

Detroit (+6?) at Tampa Bay (35): Detroit is off of their Bye week and faces a Tampa Bay team that is amongst the NFL?s biggest surprises at 3-0. Both teams prefer to run the ball on offense. Tampa clearly has the better defense and that should mean trouble for a Lions offense that struggled in their first two games. The talent gap between the teams is not great which makes it dangerous to lay nearly a TD with a team averaging just 20 points per game. Look for both team?s emphasis on the ground game to keep this one low scoring. UNDER the Total.

St. Louis (+3) at New York Giants (46): Both teams are 2-1 but the Giants have been much more impressive, notwithstanding their Sunday night loss at inspired San Diego. Giants? QB Eli Manning actually played well in that hostile environment and has shown improvement week by week. The Rams have one of the most prolific passing games in the league and also have a solid ground game with Stephen Jackson and Marshall Faulk. The number is very reasonable considering that both offenses are far better than the defenses and this should be an entertainingly high scoring game. OVER the Total.

Buffalo (pick ?em) vs. New Orleans (39) at San Antonio:The Saints finally have a ?home? game and can at least have some sort of stability as they undergo the week of practice. At Minnesota they fell behind early and after a short work week following their Monday nighter at the Giants a poor effort was not surprising. Normally defense gets the edge but given the inexperience at QB and heading back to the road in front of what should be an incredibly enthusiastic San Antonio crowd tilts the intangibles edge to the Saints in a game between two fairly evenly matched teams. NEW ORLEANS.

Seattle (+2) at Washington 36?): Seattle again played two distinct halves of football. After a lethargic first half against Arizona, the Seahawks extended their slim 10-9 halftime lead with a dominating second half in which they outscored the Cardinals 27-3. If they could ever play TWO solid halves they might be an elite team. With back to back road games on deck at Denver and Kansas City this becomes a very key game for the Redskins. At a FG or less we get the better defensive team, rested and at home. WASHINGTON.

New York Jets at Baltimore (No Line): Injuries to the Jets? to two quarterbacks keep this game off the boards. Baltimore is off of their Bye week following an 0-2 start and should be highly motivated to turn their season around. They still have a top notch defense but problems remain with the offense. The Jets have struggled on both sides of the ball in dropping two of their first three games with the offense especially ineffective. This game is perfectly situated for an all out effort from the Ravens and the Jets will be hard pressed to score any points. BALTIMORE.

Minnesota (plus 6) at Atlanta (45): The Vikings got healthy, at least for a week, with a solid win over New Orleans last week. The Falcons have a dominating rushing attack and as long as they are able to sustain that attack QB Michael Vick won?t have to be the league?s most accurate passer. Minnesota QB Daunte Culpepper had a solid game against the Saints but will face more pressure and it?s too early to conclude that his interception problems of the first two weeks were an anomaly. UNDER the Total.

Dallas (plus 3) at Oakland (46): Oakland continues to be the most undisciplined team in the league, committing penalty after penalty. This is their third west coast game in the first four weeks and Divisional games are on deck hosting Philadelphia and the Giants. If the Raiders are to turn their season around they could not hope for a better situation than this. The offense should have success moving against a tired and vulnerable Dallas defense. OAKLAND.

San Francisco (plus 3) vs. Arizona (42) at Mexico City: The first NFL regular season game played outside the US features a pair of NFC West rivals. Arizona was highly touted as a Playoff contender in preseason but their 0-3 start has been quickly erased any such thoughts. The Cards have had trouble converting yards into points. The Niners won only twice in 2004, both against the Cardinals by identical 31-28 scores in overtime. SAN FRANCISCO.

Monday:

Green Bay (plus 7 ?) at Carolina (43): Things are falling apart rapidly for the once proud Packers and we are seeing that QB Brett Favre can no longer just will his team to wins. In fact, he has tried to do too much by himself and that has resulted in turnovers. Green Bay did cover last week in their loss to Tampa Bay when a missed extra point resulted in a one point loss. And the Packers did pull an upset here to open last season before losing their next four games. Hard to take. Even harder to lay. Opt for a high scoring game with the suspect Packer defense and Brett Favre still competing hard. OVER the Total.

Last week: 8-5

Season: 26-15-2

 

[Senor Capper]

Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars on Oct 2 2005 1:00PM

Prediction: under

Reason: The Broncos offense was in high gear during Monday night's 30-10 win over Kansas City. Expect the Jags defense to pose a stiffer challenge on Sunday afternoon.

Jacksonville has now seen the over cash in two of their first three games, however after watching those matchups you weren't exactly sure why. In Week one the Jags got a couple of meaningless late scores that sent the game over the total by two points, and last week there were 29 points scored after the first half, and as a result a 26-20 final. Expect to see a full 60-minute defensive battle this Sunday.


Both teams need to establish the run in order to open up their passing game. However, that could be easier said than done this week, as both teams have stellar run defenses. In the Broncos last two games, they have allowed just 17 and 10 points respectively. And that was against two of the top offenses in the NFL, San Diego and Kansas City. The Jags have held their first three opponents to 20 points or less.


Last year's meeting between these teams, ended 7-6 in favor of the Jags. While this one likely won't be quite that low scoring, we will call for around 30 points and a comfortable under. Take the under.-

 

[lowell]

thanks for picks. any chance detroit makes the insane play of the week? i may even throw a small ml wager on them.

 

[Senor Capper]

lowell
Detriot ? On the road? In 3-0 TB?
Wow!!??!!
As I said earlier that 6.5 got my head spinning. Obviously "they" wanted TB money & boy are they getting it!!!
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GAME OF THE WEEK

Philadelphia at Kansas City. When you have two good coaches and two talented offenses and a great road team at a great home team, it's the most difficult of prognostications -- like the rest of them are easy, anyway.

Chiefs coach Dick Vermeil still is beloved in the City of Brotherly Love after taking the Eagles to their first Super Bowl. Current Eagles coach Andy Reid is coming off taking the Eagles to their second Super Bowl.

So what do you get with Trent Green, Priest Holmes and Tony Gonzalez vs. McNabb, Brian Westbrook and Terrell Owens? Plenty of big plays, with a little inconsistency. That's because the Chiefs' talented trio is trying to get in sync after a forgettable Monday night in Denver, and the Eagles' triplets are all banged up in the wrong places.

Defensively, the Eagles are more consistently sound, but something about the home energy brings the Chiefs alive on that side of the ball to deliver hits and come up with key takeaways. So, where do I end?

It comes down to picking KC for two little reasons: Playing in Arrowhead and having a slightly more experienced kicker. Chiefs 23, Eagles 20.

NFC GAME OF THE WEEK

Minnesota at Atlanta. Daunte Culpepper looked a lot more relaxed and was more confident in his Randy Moss-less, Nate Burleson-less wide receiver corps last week, and the result was a big, mistake-free day. Funny how having Mewelde Moore rushing for the century mark aided that, isn't it?

This week, however, the matchup isn't so good. Moore (5-11, 209), a smaller, quicker back, doesn't have the bulk to wear down an undersized, aggressive Atlanta front seven. That will put the pressure -- literally -- back on Culpepper, as pass rushers Patrick Kerney and Rod Coleman will be a load for the Vikes' overmatched line.

As for the Vikes' defense against Vick, um, well, with their struggles at linebacker, it will be hard to keep him from big runs and take away his favorite downfield target, tight end Alge Crumpler. Falcons 24, Vikings 17.

AFC GAME OF THE WEEK

San Diego at New England. Look for the best of Brady to come through here. The Chargers have the front seven to limit Corey Dillon, but their blitzes and adherence to single coverage will allow the Patriots to simply spread the field and let Brady, with his quick release, go to work to his myriad of receivers. That should lead to a few big plays early and put the visitors in the most uncomfortable position of playing from behind.

The Patriots' defense will welcome that situational help against LaDainian Tomlinson, as San Diego tends to limit his touches when it's trailing. The mix of 3-4 and 4-3 can do only so much to stop LT. Despite not having Rodney Harrison on Antonio Gates and young cornerbacks facing savvy Keenan McCardell, Bill Belichick will mask those weaknesses with his usual mixes of blitzes and coverages to frustrate Drew Brees. Patriots 27, Chargers 13.

RIVALRY OF THE WEEK

Indianapolis at Tennessee. Two years ago, these teams were neck-and-neck in the AFC South race, with Peyton Manning and Steve McNair winning co-MVP honors. Now, the Titans already are into rebuilding mode, and the Colts are looking out a championship window that may close in a couple of seasons.

Manning always gets a nice reception from Knoxville to Nashville when he returns to the Volunteer State, but Tennessee's D won't be too fond of Edgerrin James after this game. For Indy, it's no longer the 500 or Brickyard -- even if it's slow and steady on the ground, it can win the race. Colts 26, Titans 16.

SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK

Dallas at Oakland. Week 1 against the 'Boys: Keenan McCardell, two TDs. Week 2: Santana Moss. Week 3: Brandon Lloyd. Let me think, what's the name of the No. 1 receiver in Silver and Black -- oh yeah, that other Moss, Randy.

Week 1 against the Raiders: Corey Dillon. Week 2: Priest Holmes. Week 3: Brian Westbrook. Let me think, who's that young stud runner in the Silver and Blue -- oh yeah, Julius Jones.

The teams also have somehow kept immobile passers Kerry Collins and Drew Bledsoe on their feet to make big play after big play. Somehow, Collins also has thrown no picks, and that gives him the Black Hole edge over Bledsoe. Raiders 38, Cowboys 31.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Seattle over Washington. The Seahawks don't usually play well on the road, but I think they will be fooled that playing "in Washington" is really like playing "in Washington" this week. The Redskins have a terrific defense, but the combination of Walter Jones' blocking and Shaun Alexander's moves will be a challenge for their run stoppers.

Seattle's secondary also is playing well enough to contain Santana Moss, so the team can afford to sell out to stop Clinton Portis. I know the 'Hawks are traveling across the country and playing the Redskins, who are coming off a bye, but I don't buy the 2-0 'Skins as NFC playoff contenders just yet. Seahawks 20, Redskins 17.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati over Houston. This isn't a misprint. Don't adjust your monitor -- Cincy is supposed to come before "over." And I won't use that oft-quoted movie line to describe the Texans' woes, even though their offense has been as awful as Apollo 13 is overrated.

Speaking of Tom Hanks, Chad Johnson should start working on his acceptance speech for Best Lead Performance In The End Zone. I think he'll have a couple more times to riverdance this week in the first half, with Rudi Johnson taking on a impressive supporting role in the second half. Bengals 35, Texans 13.

REST OF THE WEEK

Buffalo at New Orleans. This would have been a chance for Tulane product J.P. Losman to go back to where he played in college. Instead, it's San Antonio's rare chance to see the pro football that the Alamdome was built for. This is technically the Saints' home opener, and I think they will play like it. Without Pat Williams and Takeo Spikes, the Bills are vulnerable against the run, meaning McAllister-McGahee will end in a draw. Of Losman and Aaron Brooks, the latter should make fewer mistakes. Saints 20, Bills 16.

St. Louis at New York Giants. Marc Bulger will light up the Giants' secondary, but Michael Strahan and the pass rush also will come up with some big plays. The hosts have been getting better protection for Eli Manning, and their offensive balance and versatility with Tiki Barber and Jeremy Shockey will be too much for the Rams' D by the fourth quarter. Giants 31, Rams 27.

Denver at Jacksonville. Each team will try to run the ball 30 times this week in an attempt to wear down the other team's strong front seven. It will take a big pass play to win the game, however, and with Jake Plummer back on the road, I like Byron Leftwich-to-Jimmy Smith to do the trick for the second consecutive week. Jaguars 19, Broncos 14.

Detroit at Tampa Bay. The Fords need their team to stop turning their running back into Kevin "Escort" Jones if they hope to stop the rest of their offense's engine trouble, because I hear rival General Motors is backing Cadillac's team this week. If you can find a better pick, buy it. Buccaneers 23, Lions 17.

New York Jets at Baltimore. The forecast for Maryland on Sunday: Cloudy backup QB situations with a slight chance of points. If you love hard-hitting defenses, this one's for you. Ravens 10, Jets 6.

San Francisco at Arizona. Are you ready for some real futbol, Mexico City? South of the border, they're probably rethinking NAFTA after we sent them this game. Even so, at least the Cards get a "home" sellout out of it, because with their now Kurt Warner-less offense struggling, they will fall short against Mike Nolan's newly energized Niners. Will someone say "FIELD GOOOOOOAAAAAAL" when Joe Nedney kicks home the game-winner? 49ers 20, Cardinals 17.

Green Bay at Carolina. The last time Steve Smith played the Pack on a Monday night, he was forced to pack it in for '04 with a fractured fibula. By what he did in Week 3, I'm guessing he's at "full speed" and ready to put that memory behind him. With both pass defenses struggling, Smith will help Delhomme win an old-style Southern shootout over Brett Favre. Panthers 26, Packers 23.

BYES OF THE WEEK

The Bears can contend in a bad NFC North, but like the Jets and Ravens, they have little room for error. Protect the ball, run often, keep solid defense rested enough to make plays, repeat. Any other game plan isn't an option. ...

The Dolphins have been a big surprise, and it's all a change in attitude from Nick Saban's coaching. I don't think they will stay in the AFC East race for the long haul, but I don't think any team wants to face them in Miami at this point. ...

Speaking of new coaches, Romeo Crennel has inspired some good play out of his Browns, making them no longer a gimme on the schedule. With Chicago, Baltimore, Detroit, Houston and Tennessee in their next five games, who knows? ...

The Steelers, on the other hand, have a tough stretch ahead, starting with a Week 5 Monday nighter at San Diego, followed by Jacksonville and Cincinnati.


by Vinnie Iyer (SN)

STATS OF THE WEEK

Week 3 straight up: 9-5
Week 3 record vs. the spread: 4-10 PEE-U !!!!!
Season record straight up: 28-18
Season record vs. the spread: 22-24

 

[Senor Capper]

New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens on Oct 2 2005 4:05PM
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens



Reason:

At 0-2 the Ravens are desperate for a win this week. After losing two quarterbacks last week, the Jets are just plain desperate. Give us a hungry Baltimore team, who?s had two weeks to prepare for the offensively anemic Jets. As an added bonus, they now get to tee off against Brooks Bollinger who makes his first NFL start.



The Jets have managed just 14.7 points per game with Pennington at the helm. It definitely will not get any easier this week. The Ravens were expected to make a run for the AFC North title, but in two losses have been taken completely out of their game plan. Early deficits have forced the Ravens to go to the air early, and that?s not a strong point of this team. Even with a strong-armed Wright at the helm, Baltimore would rather not have to pass at all.



Jamal Lewis finally gets it going this week, and will spearhead a Raven offense that has managed a shocking 45 ?-yards per game on the ground. The Jets yield some 134 per game rushing, and we suspect the defense tires early this week as the offense will struggle to move the ball.



It may only be Week 4, and this may only be the third game of the season for Baltimore, but things are getting pretty serious already. With the Bengals jumping out to a quick 3-0 start in the North, the Ravens must get on track right now. We will not be so bold as to call a shutout in the NFL, but this might be as close as we ever get to doing so. Lay the points and watch the Ravens dominate.


Play Baltimore

 

[Senor Capper]

Best bet: Colts

All picks against the spread

Jets: Air of despair

Jets (1-2) at Ravens (0-2)

Line: Ravens by 7. Over-Under: 31.

Bad things, Jet things: Who else could lose their top two QBs in the span of seven plays? It's time to channel WFAN's Joe Benigno, eternally tormented Jets fanatic: "You knew, you knew, that when Chad Pennington was talking Super Bowl in July that he'd be done for the season before you even started raking leaves." Vinny Testaverde? Ah, that was a knee-jerk (arm-jerk?) reaction. Think outside the box and beyond the usual suspects. Consider Fran Tarkenton, who at 65 is still more mobile than Vinny. Or reach into the Jets' hallowed past for Browning Nagle or Bubby Brister. The desperate Ravens will storm and swarm Brooks Bollinger as Rich the Jets fan revises his preseason prediction from 12-4 to 4-12. The pick: Ravens

Giants: Playing like a Manning

Rams (2-1) at Giants (2-1)

Line: Giants by 3. Over-under: 47.

Who is the bigger head case, Plaxico Burress or Jeremy Shockey? Talented receivers are born with the Jerk Gene. Despite nonexistent defense, that rout in San Diego had a positive side, because young Eli Manning showed poise and played well in as stressful a situation as he'll ever face. The Giants' lousy secondary is a brutal flaw that should haunt them all season. The Rams will exploit it, but they don't play much defense, either. They're a sloppy team that's always iffy on the road (8-20 against the spread). St. Louis has played three of the league's worst teams, losing to the 49ers and being fully extended to edge the Cardinals and Titans. Take the over and Big Blue. The pick: Giants

Marquee matchups

Eagles (2-1) at Chiefs (2-1)

Line: Chiefs by 2. Over-under: 45 1/2.

The Chiefs are overrated. Yes, the defense has improved, but after being a joke for two seasons, how could it not be? Besides a strong running game and a great tight end, KC is nothing special. Philly is the class of the NFC, and Donovan McNabb (sports hernia) will play with pain and inflict it. The pick: Eagles

Chargers (1-2) at Patriots (2-1)

Line: Patriots by 5 1/2. O-U: 47.

How many key guys can the Pats lose before they start to struggle? Without Rodney Harrison, an injury-riddled secondary is even more vulnerable. No team could be more resourceful in overcoming adversity, but there has to be a limit. San Diego should keep it close in a shootout. The pick: Chargers

Around the league

Bills (1-2) at Saints (1-2)

Line: Pick 'em. O-U: 39 1/2.

The Saints finally get a home game (in San Antonio) in the same time zone as New Orleans. Buffalo's touted defense is showing holes and will miss LB Takeo Spikes. Young QB J.P. Losman has bumbled almost as much as the Saints, who might get fired up here before reverting to their self-destructive ways. The pick: Saints

Seahawks (2-1) at Redskins (2-0)

Line: Redskins by 2. O-U: 36 1/2.

The Seahawks should win the NFC West by default, but they're soft and rarely show heart. Washington's fierce "D" will contain Shaun Alexander and attack mistake-prone Matt Hasselbeck. Take the under in what looks like a field-goal game. The pick: Redskins

Broncos (2-1) at Jaguars (2-1)

Line: Jaguars by 4. O-U: 36.

The Broncos were wired and inspired against KC on Monday night, but short week plus long trip could equal a letdown after back-to-back division wins at home. Jacksonville's outstanding line should stop the run, Denver's main weapon. The pick: Jaguars

Texans (0-2) at Bengals (3-0)

Line: Bengals by 9 1/2. Over-under: 42.

Research project: The Bengals haven't been favored by this much for the past 10 seasons. Cincinnati has 10 picks in its last two games, and its offense is versatile and potent. Houston can't protect battered QB David Carr, so it fired the offensive coordinator and promoted the offensive line coach. What? The pick: Bengals

Lions (1-1) at Bucs (3-0)

Line: Bucs by 6 1/2. O-U: 34.

NFL.com offers all the data you want, except for the point spread. That's like running a bar and hiding the beer. The Bucs excel at messing up young QBs, and Joey Harrington can implode on his own. Detroit has lost six straight on the road. The pick: Bucs

Vikings (1-2) at Falcons (2-1)

Line: Falcons by 6. O-U: 44 1/2.

The constant focus on Michael Vick's unique brilliance obscures the Falcons' identity: a conservative team with the league's best running game and strong defense. They'll push around the fundamentally unsound Vikings. The pick: Falcons

Colts (3-0) at Titans (1-2)

Line: Colts by 7. O-U: 45.

Will the Colts' locker room become divided? Will the killer defense point fingers at Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison and complain they can't carry them forever? Not likely. Indy's brilliant "D" (16 points allowed) has been a major surprise, and its offense will break out soon. This is a likely spot, because the young, rebuilding Titans are overmatched. The pick: Colts

Cowboys (2-1) at Raiders (0-3)

Line: Raiders by 3. O-U: 46.

Oakland has the dubious honor of being the NFL's best 0-3 team, outplaying KC and almost winning in Philly. This could be breakthrough day. Dallas is vulnerable to the deep ball, so expect some Randy Moss celebrations in the freak-infested Black Hole. The pick: Raiders

49ers (1-2) at Cardinals (0-3)

Line: Cardinals by 2 1/2. O-U: 42 1/2.

If the NFL wants to sell overpriced licensed merchandise south of the border, why send these wretched teams to Mexico City? By halftime, thousands of disgusted fans will feel like playing soccer in the parking lot. Arizona can't block or run the ball, and with Kurt Warner hurt, Josh McCown starts at QB. The pick: 49ers

Packers (0-3) at Panthers (1-2)

Line: Panthers by 7 1/2. O-U: 43.

Carolina is in a 6-15 ATS slump as a favorite. Green Bay is sinking like a stone. This is known as a dilemma. After a tough loss in Miami, Carolina will be psyched to rebound in prime time. The Packers' plan: Put the whole team on the physically unable to perform list, go 0-16 and draft Matt Leinart. The pick: Panthers

The picks

Our writers' picks for this week's NFL games

This season's, and best bet, records displayed after names.

Best bet picks are in bold.

Arthur Staple 27-18-1 best bets 1-2

Jets, Rams, Eagles, Patriots, Saints, Seahawks, Broncos, Bengals, Bucs, Falcons, Colts, Cowboys, 49ers, Panthers

Ken Berger 24-21-1 best bets 2-0-1

Ravens, Rams, Eagles, Chargers, Bills, Redskins, Jaguars, Bengals, Bucs, Falcons, Colts, Cowboys, Cardinals, Panthers

Ed McNamara 18-27-1 best bets 1-2

Ravens, Giants, Eagles, Chargers, Saints, Redskins, Jaguars Bengals Bucs Falcons, Colts, Raiders, 49ers, Panthers

Bob Glauber 17-28-1 best bets 2-1

Ravens, Giants, Chiefs, Patriots, Saints, Seahawks, Jaguars, Texans, Bucs, Falcons, Colts, Raiders, 49ers, Packers
__________________

 

[Senor Capper]

Texans at Bengals



When: 1 p.m. Sunday at Cincinnati, Ohio.


Records: Texans (0-2); Bengals (3-0).


The skinny: Cincinnati hasn't started 4-0 since 1988, which happens to be the last time the franchise made it to the Super Bowl, and has never lost to Houston (0-2). The reason: A larcenous defense that has 12 interceptions in three games and quarterback Carson Palmer, who ranks No. 1 in the league is completion percentage (71.1) and No. 2 in passer rating (114.0), behind Ben Roethlisberger. The Texans have a new offensive coordinator, Joe Pendry, to replace Chris Palmer, who was fired after a 27-7 loss to the Steelers on Sept. 18. It might be a rough debut.


Prediction: Bengals, 31-3





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Broncos at Jaguars



When: 1 p.m. Sunday at Jacksonville, Fla


Records: Broncos (2-1); Jaguars (2-1).


The skinny: Since being embarrassed in the season opener in Miami, Denver has come back to win two in a row, the most recent being a 30-10 victory against Kansas City on Monday night. That gives the Broncos back-to-back victories against their two main division rivals - San Diego and the Chiefs. The Broncos rushed for 221 yards against KC, but yards will be harder to come by against Jacksonville, whose defense is No. 1 in the AFC in yards per game (252.7). What's more, after being accustomed to the mile-high altitude, the Broncos might have a hard time breathing the thick, humid Jacksonville air.


Prediction: Jaguars, 20-16




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Chargers at Patriots



When: 1 p.m. Sunday at Foxboro, Mass.


Records: Chargers (1-2);t Patriots (2-1).


The skinny: After an 0-2 start, San Diego finally looked like the team that won the AFC West last season with a convincing 45-23 victory against New York. But the Chargers will have a better barometer of their progress in New England, which ended the Steelers' 16-game regular-season winning streak and has won 21 games in a row at home. Marty Schottenheimer is 6-1 lifetime against the Patriots, but he will have a hard time improving on that record if Tom Brady plays as well as he did against the Steelers. The Patriots schedule is tougher than third grade.


Prediction: Patriots, 24-20





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Bills at Saints



When: 1 p.m. Sunday at San Antonio, Texas


Records: Bills (1-2); Saints (1-2).


The skinny: A pair of former Steelers coordinators get together in San Antonio, Tex.., each looking for a quick turnaround. For New Orleans Coach Jim Haslett, it will be a game against the team for which he played seven seasons. For Mike Mularkey, it will be a game against a team that has no permanent home in 2005. The Saints have lost two in a row since their opening victory in Carolina. And the Bills have lost two in a row since a lackluster victory against the Texans in the opener. The best part of this game will be a stroll along the Riverwalk.


Prediction: Saints, 20-17





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Rams at Giants



When: 1 p.m. Sunday at E. Rutherford, N.J.


Records: Rams (2-1); Giants (2-1).


The skinny: Just like on draft day, Eli Manning came up a loser with San Diego, despite passing for a career-high 352 yards. New York leads the NFL in scoring with 92 points, but the Giants defense gave up nearly half that many in a 45-23 loss to the Chargers. They might need to be a little more stringent against St. Louis, which came back to beat Tennessee, 31-27. Quarterback Marc Bulger is becoming one of the masters of the comeback, leading the Rams to victory nine times in overtime or after trailing in the fourth quarter. He might need to do it again against the Giants.


Prediction: Giants, 34-27




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Lions at Buccaneers



When: 1 p.m. Sunday at Tampa, Fla.


Records: Lions (1-1); Buccaneers (3-0).


The skinny: Hopefully, Detroit spent the off week working on defense, especially after allowing 38 points to the Bears in Week 2. And, hopefully, the Lions worked on stopping Tampa Bay running back Carnell Williams, who leads the NFL with 434 yards rushing, the highest total by a rookie after three games in NFL history. Of course, if they want to know how to play defense, all they have to do is watch the Buccaneers, who have allowed just two touchdowns in three games, second only to Indianapolis. The Bucs haven't started 4-0 since 1997.


Prediction: Buccaneers, 20-9





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Colts at Titans



When: 1 p.m. Sunday at Nashville, Tenn.


Records: Colts (3-0); Titans (1-2)


The skinny: Which is more surprising - that Indianapolis has held opponents to 16 points in three games or that the Colts offense has managed just 47 points in three games? The Colts are trying to become the first team in more than 40 years (since the 1962 Green Bay Packers) to hold their first four opponents to single-digits. That might be difficult against Tennessee, which has scored 52 points in its past two games. The Colts have won the past four meetings with their AFC South rival. Eventually, their offense will spring to life.


Prediction: Colts, 21-10





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Seahawks at Redskins



When: 1 p.m. at Landover, Md.


Records: Seahawks (2-1); Redskins (2-0)


The skinny: It has been 14 years since Washington has started 3-0, but the Redskins have a chance against Seattle, even though their offense has produced just 23 points in two games. The Seahawks have won two in a row after an opening loss to Jacksonville, both at home, but they usually don't play very well when traveling to games in the eastern-time zone. What's more, the Redskins defense will make it tough on their offense. The Skins haven't allowed more than 18 points in the past eight games or 100 yards rushing by a team in the past seven, dating to last season.


Prediction: Redskins, 17-13





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Jets at Ravens



When: 4:05 p.m. Sunday at Baltimore, Md.


Records: Jets (1-1); Ravens (0-2)


The skinny: Not exactly a marquee matchup of quarterbacks - Brooks Bollinger versus Anthony Wright. Bollinger is making his first NFL start in place of injured Chad Pennington, who might be done for the season with another rotator injury to his throwing arm. Wright, a former Steeler, starts for Baltimore, replacing injured Kyle Boller. Typically, both teams would just turn to their running backs in such a situation. But Curtis Martin hasn't had a 100-yard game in his past three outings. And Jamal Lewis has 57 yards in two games.


Prediction: Ravens, 10-9




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[Senor Capper]

Vikings at Falcons



When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday at Atlanta, Ga.


Records: Vikings (1-2); Falcons (2-1).


The skinny: Minnesota looked more like the team that was expected to be a division contender in a 33-16 victory against the Saints, rather than the sloppy, inefficient unit that showed up for the first two weeks of the season. Playing in Atlanta, though will expose the real Vikings. The Falcons, coming off a 24-16 victory in Buffalo, had a different Mike Vick at quarterback - he ran sparingly and tied a career-high with two touchdown passes against the Bills. The Vikes had a different quarterback, too - Daunte Culpepper threw touchdowns instead of interceptions against the Saints.


Prediction: Falcons, 24-16





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Eagles at Chiefs



When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday at Kansas City, Mo.


Records: Eagles (2-1); Chiefs (2-1).


The skinny: Let's hold the hosannas for the new Kansas City defense, especially after Denver ran for 221 yards in Monday night's thumping. And let's see what the Chiefs can do against Donovan McNabb, who has passed for 707 yards in the past two games. Dick Vermeil, the Chiefs coach, spent seven seasons as the head coach in Philadelphia, leading the Eagles to their first - and, until last season, only - Super Bowl appearance. He will need some of those new cornerbacks to stop Terrell Owens, who has three TD catches in the past two games.


Prediction: Eagles, 24-21





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Cowboys at Raiders



When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday at Oakland, Calif.


Records: Cowboys (2-1); Raiders (0-3).


The skinny: After spending all those years holding training camp in Thousand Oaks, Calif., Dallas has learned to like the air on the West Coast. How else to explain victories in San Diego and San Francisco already, and a third looming in Oakland, where the Raiders are masquerading as an 0-3 team. To avoid the travel, the Cowboys spent the week in The Governator's state following their 34-31 comeback victory against the 49ers. But they might need all the acclimation they can get against the Raiders, who are much better than their record would indicate.


Prediction: Raiders, 24-23





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49ers at Cardinals



When: 8:30 p.m. Sunday at Tempe, Ariz.


Records: 49ers (1-2); Cardinals (0-3).


The skinny: This is the first regular-season NFL game to be played outside the U.S., and Arizona is the home team in Mexico City. Rest assured, though, the Mexican border patrol is much more restrictive than the San Francisco secondary, which has allowed 823 yards passing the past two games. The Cardinals will be without Kurt Warner, which, considering their start, might be a good thing. If the NFL really wanted to attract some visiting fans to Estadio Azteca - Aztec Stadium -- they should have considered inviting the Steelers.


Prediction: Cardinals, 23-20





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Packers at Panthers



When: 9 p.m. Monday at Charlotte, N.C.


Records: Packers (0-3); Panthers (1-3).


The skinny: Go figure Carolina. Beat the Patriots one week, lose to the Saints and Dolphins in the other. If the Panthers lose at home to Green Bay, it might be time for John Fox to consider hiring another assistant coach - a sports psychologist. The Packers are 4-1 lifetime in Carolina, a historical accomplishment they hope will have some impact on MNF. The reality, though, is the Packers are not very good. The Panthers, who have lost two games by a combined 5 points, would have to sink to their level to lose this one.


Prediction: Panthers, 24-14




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The Dulac Scoreboard



Last week: 11-3 (.735)


Season record: 30-16 (.652)
__________________

 

[Senor Capper]

It?s a scientific fact that a monkey throwing darts at a sports page will get 50% winners against the spread. Although it really doesn?t make any difference, I have taken to blindfolding the monkey, in the interest of fairness. Same result. Right now yours truly is in a dead heat with that blindfolded monkey. One of my goals in the first few weeks of a new season is to not dig myself into such a hole that it takes most of the season to fight my way back out of it. 8-8 is better than some seasons I have started. I just hate it when the monkey is in the lead.

Starting next week we will have enough data to throw out last year?s performances entirely. One more week to go before that works. I regard the first four weeks as something like being the first one out in a minefield. Here are some lessons learned by stepping on those mines the past three weeks. Bengals and Buccaneers appear to be for real this season. The jury is still out on the Redskins. Two one point victories won?t get you into the playoffs, on the other hand that?s still Joe Gibbs over there, so anything is possible. Dallas has a solid NFL team, but probably isn?t the sleeper playoff contender I expected. Green Bay will have to put all the pieces together soon (as Minnesota did the week I bet against them). With those exceptions, this year looks a lot like a continuation of last year, which is a good thing for handicapping.

On to week 4:

Buffalo Bills Pk. Both teams should be regarded as playing on the road, although the game is technically a home game for the Saints. Although New Orleans is scoring 3 more points per game than the Bills, they are allowing 10 more points. Buffalo?s loss last week was to a tough Tampa team playing in Tampa. Much better winning chances this time. Saints lost in Minnesota too, but is this a case of the Vikings finally putting it all together and being a tough team, or is it a case of the Vikings looking good because they played the Saints? There are some question marks in this regarding whether the San Antonio folks will support the Saints as a home team. It?s more likely that there will be as many Bills fans as there are Saints fans. I will take the better defense and disregard the home field until the Saints prove to me that they rate an advantage for playing in Texas.



Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7. Off to a 3-0 start with two of the wins coming on the road. Got to like this year?s Bucs. Detroit has one less game under their belt, and the only road game was a disaster at Chicago. The only Lion win is now suspect as it came against the struggling Packers. Once again I?m taking the more impressive defense. Tampa held Buffalo to 3 points all day in their last home game. Meanwhile Detroit was scoring a total of 6 vs. the Bears. History repeats itself here with the visitors getting somewhere around 10 points and the home team covering in a walk.



Cincinnati Bengals -9?. Taking the home field again and laying the hefty points. This year?s Bengals are the Blues Brothers on a mission. Houston with a 7 point per game offense has no chance to stay in this game. If you thought the Bengals looked good last week, just wait until you see them with the crowd going nuts. This hasn?t happened in Cincinnati since the heyday of Boomer Esiason, and the Superbowl run. 9? points won?t seem like so many when this one is over.



NY Giants/ St Louis Rams OVER 46. Both teams are much better on offense than defense, allowing almost as many points as they score. That normally means a shoot-out is on the way. Either team is capable of winning this one. The one that does win will almost certainly cover the reasonable spread of 3. Should be a good one to watch. The best way to play it is to take the OVER.



San Francisco 49ers +3. It?s been a while since I have favored the 49ers on the road. The key to this one is that although the Cardinals are listed as the home team, the game will be played in Mexico City. In fact, both teams are on the road. Without a home field to defend, the Cards will have to win one on the road before I can back them. San Francisco has won a game and could be a 3 point favorite over another road team which has not won yet. A better line would be Pick, since there is not particular reason to favor either one. I will take the extra field goal against a team which is averaging 13 points per game. Cards winning chances depend on their defense holding 49ers to a low total of points, which is quite possible on the road. Their offense will have to drag along those three extra points for them to cover the spread. 50% chance for San Francisco to win straight up, take the points and win anyway if it?s close.
__________________

 

[Senor Capper]

Buffalo (1-2) at New Orleans (1-2), Sunday, 1:00 (Pick)

Storylines: The Saints will play their first of three games at the Alamodome in San Antonio, with the final two coming against Atlanta (10/16) and Detroit (12/24)...New Orleans will be playing in its seventh venue in as many weeks, dating back to the final three games of the preseason...The Saints have committed 12 turnovers in three games, which is tied for the league high...New Orleans running back Deuce McAllister (174 yards, 3 TD) is still looking for his first 100-yard outing of 2005...Saints wideouts Joe Horn and Donte' Stallworth combined for just one catch in last week's loss to the Vikings...New Orleans head coach Jim Haslett played for the Bills from 1979-1985...The Saints lost strong safety Jay Bellamy (rotator cuff) for the year, and will be starting rookie Josh Bullocks (Nebraska) in his place...Buffalo quarterback J.P. Losman has just 188 passing yards in his last two games combined (both Bills losses)...Bills running back Willis McGahee (291 yards, 1 TD) has two 100-yard outings in his first three games of '05...The Buffalo defense will be playing its first game without Pro Bowl linebacker Takeo Spikes (Achilles), who is out for the season.

Fast Fact: The Saints are 3-10-1 all-time in regular season games played in the state of Texas.

Prediction: New Orleans will re-charge its batteries prior to what will be the closest thing to a home game it experiences this season. Saints 24, Bills 21.

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Detroit (1-1) at Tampa Bay (3-0), Sunday, 1:00 (Tampa Bay -6?)

Storylines: Tampa Bay is attempting to start the year 4-0 for the first time since 1997, when it opened the year with five straight wins...Buccaneers running back Cadillac Williams set an NFL record by rushing for 434 yards in his first three games, and is the first player in league history to start his career with three straight 100-yard games...The Bucs enter Week 4 ranked No. 1 in the league in total defense (218.3 yards per game)...The Lions, who come off a bye, enter Week 4 atop the NFC North...Quarterback Joey Harrington threw five interceptions in the team's Week 2 loss to the Bears, and has a 52.3 passer rating in 2005...Running back Kevin Jones (33 carries, 109 yards) is averaging just 3.3 yards per rush...rookie wideout Mike Williams has one catch through two contests...The Lions will face their former NFC Central rival without cornerback Fernando Bryant (shoulder), who is out for the year.

Fast Fact: The Lions' Steve Mariucci's final game as head coach of the 49ers was a 31-6 loss to the Buccaneers in a 2002 NFC Divisional Playoff.

Prediction: Detroit will come out with some fire following the bye week, but Harrington won't have a clue against Tampa's zone defense. Buccaneers 20, Lions 10.

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Indianapolis (3-0) at Tennessee (1-2), Sunday, 1:00 (Indianapolis -7)

Storylines: The Colts are trying to start 4-0 for the second time in three seasons...Indianapolis has given up a league-low 16 points through three games, and is attempting to become the first team since the 1962 Packers to allow single-digits in each of its first four contests...Colts quarterback Peyton Manning (604 passing yards) has just a 79.9 passer rating and has two touchdown passes after throwing for 49 last year...Colts running back Edgerrin James (324 yards, 1 TD) is looking for his third straight 100-yard outing...The Titans are seeking to snap a two-game losing streak, as well as a four-game skid against the Colts...Tennessee will be playing without running back Travis Henry (97 yards), who was suspended for four games after violating the league's substance abuse policy...Tennessee end Kyle Vanden Bosch leads the league with five sacks, one better than the Colts' Dwight Freeney, who has four.

Fast Fact: Peyton Manning is 85-of-121 (70.2 percent) for 1,080 yards and 6 touchdowns in his last four outings against the Titans (all Indianapolis wins).

Prediction: Manning and his receivers figure to have a big day against an inexperienced group of Tennessee corners. Colts 35, Titans 16.

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San Diego (1-2) at New England (2-1), Sunday, 1:00 (New England -5?)

Storylines: Chargers are attempting to build on last week's emotional 45-23 win over the Giants....San Diego running back LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 192 yards on 21 carries, caught six passes for 28 yards, and threw a 26-yard touchdown pass to Keenan McCardell in the victory...McCardell (17 receptions, 4 TD) had his second two-TD game of the season last week...Chargers rank 28th in the league against the pass entering Week 4...Patriots went to Pittsburgh and won, 23-20, last Sunday...New England lost safety Rodney Harrison (knee) for the year and starting tackle Matt Light (leg) for an undetermined amount of time in the win...Tom Brady completed 31-of-41 passes for 372 yards in the Patriots victory...Brady leads the AFC in passing yards with 948...Patriots running back Corey Dillon (160 yards, 4 TD) is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry...New England is 21-0 at home (regular season and playoffs) since a loss to the Jets in Week 16 of the 2002 campaign.

Fast Fact: Chargers head coach Marty Schottenheimer is 6-1 in his career against the Patriots.

Prediction: After last week's win, Bolts won't be able to summon the emotion to down Pats on their home turf. Patriots 27, Chargers 18.

---

 

[Agent 0659]

I get sick of idiots like you that just post a play and no analysis or reasoning. :scared :scared

Great write ups!!! :mj14:
Thanks!

 

[Senor Capper]

St. Louis (2-1) at N.Y. Giants (2-1), Sunday, 1:00 (N.Y. Giants -3)

Storylines: Giants quarterback Eli Manning threw for a career-high 352 yards in last week's 45-23 loss to the Chargers...Tight end Jeremy Shockey caught six passes for 101 yards, his first 100-yard game since 2003...G-Men allowed San Diego to pile up 268 ground yards last Sunday, including 192 for LaDainian Tomlinson...Giants are 30th in the league against the pass, and 24th against the run...Rams are looking for a three-game winning streak after consecutive victories over Arizona (17-12) and Tennessee (31-27)...Quarterback Marc Bulger is second in the NFC with 870 passing yards, but has been sacked a league-high 15 times...St. Louis wideout Torry Holt leads the league with 358 receiving yards and is tied with Steve Smith atop the receptions chart with 23...Fellow receiver Isaac Bruce (turf toe) may not play against New York...Rookie tackle and first-round draft pick Alex Barron (Florida State) is expected to make the first start of his NFL career this week.

Fast Fact: The Rams are 0-9 on the road against non-NFC West foes since a win at Cleveland in Week 14 of the 2003 season.

Prediction: St. Louis is banged up, and doesn't match up well with the physical Giants. Giants 30, Rams 17.

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Denver (2-1) at Jacksonville (2-1), Sunday, 1:00 (Jacksonville -4)

Storylines: Broncos trying to build on their 30-10 rout of the Chiefs on Monday night...Denver running backs Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell combined for 145 yards on 25 carries in the win...Mike Shanahan and company are attempting to avenge a 7-6 loss in Jacksonville last season, a game that saw running back Quentin Griffin fumble with the team in field goal range in the closing moments...Denver cornerback Champ Bailey (hamstring) may not play for the first time in his seven-year NFL career...Jacksonville returns home after a 26-20 overtime win over the Jets last week...Jaguars won on a 36-yard touchdown pass from Byron Leftwich to Jimmy Smith in overtime...Jags rushed for 137 yards in the win, including 98 on 37 carries for Fred Taylor (255 yards, 1 TD on the year)...Jacksonville ranks in a tie for second in the league with nine takeaways on the year.

Fast Fact: The Broncos are 2-10 all-time in regular season games held in the state of Florida, including a 34-10 loss to the Dolphins in Week 1.

Prediction: Broncos figure to suffer from a Monday night hangover, and never play well in the Sunshine State. Jaguars 19, Broncos 12.

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Houston (0-2) at Cincinnati (3-0), Sunday, 1:00 (Cincinnati -9?)

Storylines: Texans come off a bye week which was preceded by blowout losses to the Bills (22-7) and Steelers (27-7)...Quarterback David Carr was sacked a total of 13 times in team's first two games...Sunday will mark the first game as offensive coordinator for Joe Pendry, the team's former offensive line coach who replaces Chris Palmer. Palmer was fired after the Pittsburgh loss...Houston running back Domanick Davis (107 yards) and wideout Andre Johnson (7 receptions, 38 yards) are among the Texans who will look to get untracked in Cincinnati...Cincinnati is trying to start 4-0 for the first time since 1988...Carson Palmer ranks second in the league with a 114.0 passer rating, and is tied for the league lead with eight touchdown passes...Bengals have 10 interceptions in the past two weeks, and cornerback Deltha O'Neal leads the league with four picks...Bengals lead the NFL with 16 takeaways through three games, seven more turnovers forced than by any other team.

Fast Fact: The Bengals last started 4-0 in 1988, when they opened with six straight wins en route to an AFC Central title and Super Bowl appearance.

Prediction: Houston will play better than expected after its one-week layoff, but the Bengals will flex their muscles late. Bengals 23, Texans 20.

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Seattle (2-1) at Washington (2-0), Sunday, 1:00 (Washington -2)

Storylines: The Redskins, who had a bye last week, will try to stay atop a division in which the Cowboys, Eagles, and Giants are all 2-1...Washington is attempting to start 3-0 for the first time since 1991, when they won their first 11 games en route to a 14-2 finish and Super Bowl title...Skins trailed Cowboys, 13-0, with four minutes to play in Week 2, before rallying behind two late touchdown passes from Mark Brunell to Santana Moss...Redskins defense has given up just 20 points in its first two contests combined...Seahawks are looking for their first three-game win streak since the beginning of the 2004 campaign, when they started 3-0...Hawks were 37-12 winners over Arizona last week...Seattle running back Shaun Alexander comes off a 22-carry, 140-yard, four-touchdown performance against the Cardinals...Matt Hasselbeck is fourth in the NFC in passer rating (91.8)...Wideout Darrell Jackson is tied for third in the league with 22 catches...The Seahawk defense enters the game having not allowed a touchdown in four quarters.

Fast Fact: The Redskins' Joe Gibbs is 4-0 all-time against the Seahawks, and Seattle's Mike Holmgren is 0-3 in his career against Washington.

Prediction: Seahawks are streaky, and a trip to the east coast isn't likely to inspire them. Redskins 17, Seahawks 14.

 

[Senor Capper]

N.Y. Jets (1-2) at Baltimore (0-2), Sunday, 4:05 (Baltimore -7?)

Storylines: Jets quarterback Brooks Bollinger, filling in for the injured Chad Pennington (rotator cuff) and Jay Fiedler (shoulder), will make his first career start. Bollinger has just nine career pass attempts entering the contest...Forty-one-year-old Vinny Testaverde, signed on Tuesday, will likely dress as a backup for the Ravens contest...Jets running back Curtis Martin, the reigning NFL rushing champion, comes into Week 4 ranked 18th in the league with 169 yards on the year...Jets end John Abraham has three sacks on the season, including one in each of his first three contests...Ravens, who come off a bye, are trying to avoid their first 0-3 start in team history...Anthony Wright, filling in for the injured Kyle Boller (toe), will make his second start of the season...Running back Jamal Lewis, a former 2,000-yard rusher, has just 57 yards in his first two contests of 2005...Baltimore has yet to score a first-half point this year...Ravens line has allowed nine sacks in its first two games combined...Ravens are last in the league in rushing (45.5 yards per game)...New coordinator Rex Ryan is presiding over a defense that has a league-low one sack and zero interceptions in 2005.

Fast Fact: Testaverde, who will return to Baltimore in a Jets uniform this week, holds Ravens franchise records for passing yards (7,148) and touchdown passes (51) despite playing just two seasons with the club (1996-97).

Prediction: Baltimore is desperate for a victory, and is fortunate to be playing a Jets team with a lot of offensive problems at the moment. Ravens 23, Jets 13.

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Philadelphia (2-1) at Kansas City (2-1), Sunday, 4:15 (Kansas City -2)

Storylines: Chiefs head coach Dick Vermeil will take on the team that he directed to a Super Bowl berth following the 1980 season...Kansas City is seeking to rebound from an embarrassing 30-10 loss to the Broncos on Monday night...Chiefs vaunted rushing attack of Priest Holmes (221 yards, 2 TD) and Larry Johnson (164 yards, 3 TD) combined for just 74 yards in the loss to the Broncos...Kansas City quarterback Trent Green has one touchdown pass and a passer rating of 76.8 through three games...Chiefs gave up 221 rushing yards on Monday after allowing only 129 in their first two games combined...Eagles were 23-20 winners over Oakland last Sunday...Kicker David Akers (hamstring), who kicked the game-winning field goal while in extreme pain last week, will likely be replaced by Todd France on Sunday...Quarterback Donovan McNabb, who has dealt with a bruised chest, leads the NFL with 964 passing yards and is tied for the league lead with eight TD passes...Running back Brian Westbrook (204 rushing yards, 235 receiving yards) leads the league in yards from scrimmage with 439...The Eagles rank in the Top 10 in rushing, passing, scoring, and total defense.

Fast Fact: Chiefs head coach Dick Vermeil is 0-3 in his career against the Eagles franchise that he guided from 1976 through 1982.

Prediction: Kansas City has to bounce back and display its strength, and McNabb and the Eagles are hurting. Chiefs 31, Eagles 28.

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Dallas (2-1) at Oakland (0-3), Sunday, 4:15 (Oakland -3?)

Storylines: The Raiders are attempting to avoid their first 0-4 start since 1992, when the franchise was in Los Angeles...Randy Moss has yet to record his first win in an Oakland uniform, but enters Week 4 ranked second in the league with 343 receiving yards...Running back LaMont Jordan (148 yards) is averaging just 3.0 yards per rush as a Raider...Oakland QB Kerry Collins is second in the AFC in passing yards with 873...The Raiders are second-to-last in the league against the pass, and have only two sacks through three contests...The Cowboys rebounded from a 31-19 fourth-quarter deficit to beat the 49ers, 34-31, last week...The franchise remained in California during the week to prepare for Oakland...Dallas quarterback Drew Bledsoe leads the NFC in passer rating (103.7)...Cowboys running back Julius Jones (259 yards, 3 TD) is averaging just 3.5 yards per rush...Dallas wideout Terry Glenn is fourth in the league in receiving yards (336)...Dallas has given up 45 points in its last five quarters.

Fast Fact: Raiders quarterback Kerry Collins is 8-3 as a starter against the Cowboys, while Dallas' Bledsoe is 0-3 against Oakland all-time.

Prediction: Desperate Raiders should be able to move the ball on the Cowboys and notch their first win of 2005. Raiders 30, Cowboys 25.

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Minnesota (1-2) at Atlanta (2-1), Sunday, 4:15 (Atlanta -6)

Storylines: The Vikings are attempting to build on an encouraging 33-16 win over the Saints last Sunday...Quarterback Daunte Culpepper, who threw eight interceptions in his first two contests, completed 21-of-29 passes for 300 yards, three touchdowns, and no picks in the victory...Running back Mewelde Moore rushed 23 times for 101 yards and a touchdown after Minnesota managed just 110 combined ground yards in their first two games...Wideout and first- round draft choice Troy Williamson caught his first NFL touchdown pass in the game...The Vikings are 30th in the league against the run...The Falcons, who lead the NFL in rushing offense, piled up 236 ground yards in a 24-16 win over the Bills last week...Running backs Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett combined for 172 rushing yards on 27 carries...Quarterback Michael Vick had 167 passing yards and two touchdowns against Buffalo...Atlanta is just 27th in the league against the run.

Fast Fact: In his only career outing against the Vikings (2002), the Falcons' Michael Vick rushed for a career-best 173 yards and scored two touchdowns in a 30-24 overtime win.

Prediction: Atlanta will run at will against a Minnesota defense that has yet to find its way. Falcons 31, Vikings 14.

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San Francisco (1-2) vs. Arizona (0-3), Mexico City, Sunday, 8:30 (Arizona -2?)

Storylines: The first NFL regular season game played outside the United States will feature the two bottom teams in the NFC West...Contest will be played at Estadio Azteca before an anticipated crowd of over 100,000 fans...Game was originally scheduled as a Cardinals home contest...Arizona is attempting to avoid its first 0-4 start since 1986, when the franchise resided in St. Louis...Quarterback Kurt Warner (groin) will miss the contest, and former starter Josh McCown will get the starting nod. McCown, who was 7-9 as a starter with the Cardinals in 2003-04, completed 10-of-23 passes for 97 yards and an INT in relief last week...Arizona has gone nine quarters without scoring a touchdown, with their last TD coming in the third quarter of Week 1 against the Giants...Cards running back Marcel Shipp (29 carries, 105 yards) has outplayed second-round draft choice J.J. Arrington (13 carries, 14 yards)...San Francisco blew a 31-19 fourth quarter lead to lose, 31-19, to the Cowboys last week...Quarterback Tim Rattay (541 passing yard, 5 TD, 5 INT) has a 75.6 passer rating through three games...Niners defensive tackle Bryant Young ranks among the league leaders with four sacks...San Francisco ranks last in the league in passing defense, scoring defense, and total defense...49ers won both 2004 games against Cardinals by identical scores of 31-28, and both went to overtime.

Fast Fact: Cardinals head coach Dennis Green is 2-7 against a 49ers club for which he served as an assistant coach for four seasons (1979, 1986-88).

Prediction: Hungry Arizona owes the Niners one after dropping both ends of a home-and-home last year. Cardinals 26, 49ers 22.

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Green Bay (0-3) at Carolina (1-2), Monday, 9:00 (Carolina -8)

Storylines: Green Bay is trying to avoid its first 0-4 start since 1988, when the team went 4-12...Packers QB Brett Favre (738 passing yards, 5 TD) has thrown seven interceptions and been sacked seven times three games into 2005...The Pack is still seeking its first rushing touchdown of 2005, and Ahman Green (47 carries, 170 yards) is looking for his first 100-yard game of '05...Green Bay has allowed seven passing TDs this year, tied for the second- worst figure in the league...Carolina is seeking to avoid its second Monday night loss to Green Bay in two seasons, and will also try to keep from losing ground to Tampa Bay (3-0) and Atlanta (2-1) in the NFC South...Panther receiver Steve Smith comes off an outing in which he caught 11 passes for 170 yards and three touchdowns...Carolina running backs Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster have combined for 299 rushing yards in three games...Minus injured defensive tackle Kris Jenkins, the Panthers allowed Dolphins rookie running back Ronnie Brown to rush for 132 yards last Sunday...Carolina Pro Bowl defensive end Julius Peppers does not have a sack in 2005 to date.

Fast Fact: The Packers' Brett Favre has a 4-1 career record in Carolina.

Prediction: You shouldn't count Favre out in a big game, but Carolina is more talented (and just as desperate) as the Pack. Panthers 35, Packers 31.

 

[Senor Capper]

Week 4 - Sunday, Oct. 2, 2005
*Cincinnati 17 Houston 10 -- The Texans are in disarray after offensive coordinator Chris Palmer is fired after three games. The Bengals are much improved and have several weapons on offense.

*Jacksonville 21 Denver 14 -- The Broncos struggled against one Florida team, the Dolphins, and travel back to the Sunshine state to battle the Jaguars.

*New England 24 San Diego 21 -- The Chargers' offense is struggling early on in the season and needs to recapture its 2004 form. The Patriots had a lot of offseason changes, which have made them look vulnerable early on.

Buffalo 24 *New Orleans 13 -- The Saints will be the away team even though they're listed as the home team. It gives the Bills an advantage in this particular game.

*N.Y Giants 27 St. Louis 24 -- The Giants' offense is become quite a force. This game has all the makings of a good offensive showdown.

*Tampa Bay 24 Detroit 14 -- The Lions have several questions at the quarterback position, while the Bucs' revived rushing attack makes them much improved.

Indianapolis 35 *Tennessee 21 -- The Colts' high-powered offense has failed to put up big numbers so far this season, and have too much talent not to score big against the Titans revamped defense.

*Washington 17 Seattle 10 -- The Redskins are doing everything necessary to win games under coach Joe Gibbs. The Seahawks' inconsistency on offense gives Washington an advantage in this game.

*Baltimore 24 N.Y Jets 14 -- Chad Pennington's arm still appears to be giving him problems, and a good defensive team like the Ravens will surely take advantage.

Philadelphia 28 *Kansas City 21 -- The Eagles' offense and defense are among the league's very best. The Chiefs will need to count on their running backs to make this a close game.

*Atlanta 21 Minnesota 7 -- The Vikings' offense has struggled this season, while the Falcons' offense has been flying high.

Dallas 21 *Oakland 14 -- The Cowboys are a much-improved team, and should be able to handle whatever the Raiders throw at them.

*Arizona 21 San Francisco 7 -- The Cardinal possess home-field advantage and a lot more weapons then the Niners, who continue their rebuilding phase.

Week 4 - Monday, Oct. 3, 2005
*Carolina 21 Green Bay 7 -- The Packers are no longer the powerhouse they once were, and the Panthers have a really good defense. With an offensive line in turmoil, Packer QB Brett Favre may be running for his life.

 

[Senor Capper]

Detroit at Tampa Bay (-7)

Last week I wrote: ?There are many who say there?s no way anyone can accurately handicap NFL games before the third week of the season because teams spend the first two weeks revealing their true selves. Being that I?m 12-20 picking against the spread so far and just 16-16 picking straight winners, I wholeheartedly agree with that theory.?

Then I proceeded to go 9-5 picking straight winners last week but, alas, just 5-9 against the spread.

So I think I should update my theory as follows: ?There is no way anyone can accurately pick winners of NFL games before the third week of the season while there is no way anyone can accurately handicap games before the fourth week of the season.? There. That seems about right.

By the way, you can probably expect to hear more on this theory as I continue to suck throughout the season. In the Handicapper column for Week 17, for instance, you?ll probably read something like: ?There is no way anyone can accurately pick winners of NFL games before the third week of the season while there is no way anyone can accurately handicap game before the 17th week of the season.? And, sadly, I?ll probably honestly believe that when I write it.
My pick: Detroit

Houston at Cincinnati (-10)

Are the Bengals a young, exciting team? No doubt. Do they have a shot at making the AFC playoffs? Yes. But are they still the Cincinnati Bengals, perhaps the biggest laughingstock in professional sports over the past 15 years? Most definitely. Yet on Thursday afternoon on ESPN?s ?NFL Live,? Sean Salisbury and friends spent no fewer than 10 minutes of a half hour show making love to the 3-0 Cincinnati Bengals. (The 3-0 Bengals who, I should mention, have beaten no one but the Browns, Vikings and Bears.) In those 10-plus minutes, the NFL Livers managed to give the AFC North crown to the Bengals, the league MVP to Carson Palmer, Coach of the Year to Marvin Lewis, and say that the Bengals ?are the best team in the NFL.? See, it?s this kind of reserved and measured perspective, matched with a healthy distaste of hyperbole, that makes me respect the mainstream sports media so much.
My pick: Cincinnati

Denver at Jacksonville (-4)

You know how every time Jake Plummer has a decent game at home to get Broncos? fans hopes up how he then proceeds to stink it up the next time he plays on the road? Yes? Well it?s about to happen again.
My pick: Denver

San Diego at New England (-5)

You don?t forge a reputation as a horrendous NFL handicapper as I have by always picking the team that has won three Super Bowl in four years to cover. No sir. That?s why, yet again, I?m picking against New England. But it?s not only my legacy that I?m mindful of, it?s also because I think New England is going to struggle even more to stop the run ? hello, LaDainian Tomlinson ? with Rodney ?I Get No Respect? Harrisonfield out for the rest of the season. (And hopefully forever.)
My pick: San Diego

Buffalo at New Orleans (Pick?Em)

I bet all the people in New Orleans who looted Aaron Brooks jerseys are feeling pretty stupid now.
My pick: Buffalo

St. Louis at New York Giants (-3)

For all of you who had Week 3 in the pool for when Plaxico Burress would start being a distraction for the Giants, you?re winners! Unfortunately, I had Week 4 so I lost that one. However, my prediction that Week 7 would be when he misses his first game to injury is still looking pretty good.
My pick: St. Louis (and to win)

Indianapolis at Tennessee (+7)

The fact that Peyton Manning has been outplayed so far this season by Eli Manning has to be one of the most surprising developments in recent NFL history. Especially when you consider that Elisha isn?t exactly lighting the world on fire. It?s akin to Eric Roberts out-acting his Oscar-winning sister Julia. (Sorry, no. Poor example. Both of the Roberts siblings suck equally.)
My pick: Indianapolis

Seattle at Washington (-2)

If Joe Gibbs has any pride, he won?t even show up at this game. Getting doused with a cooler of Gatorade and acting as though he won the Super Bowl after beating the mediocre Cowboys on ?Monday Night Football? was the low point in a career that has seen plenty of them in recent years. Actually, that?s not correct. Apologies. As pathetic as that ?MNF? display was two weeks ago, the lowest point in his career has to be going to NASCAR. (As NASCAR sucks.)
My pick: Seattle (and to win)

New York Jets at Baltimore (-7.5)

Don?t expect the Ravens to show any pity to Brooks Bollinger and the Jets on Sunday. If anything, they?ll be envious of them because while New York might bemoan their quarterback situation, Bollinger would be the best quarterback in the history of the Ravens franchise if he played for Baltimore.
My pick: Baltimore

Philadelphia at Kansas City (-1.5)

If my suspicions about Terrell Owens are correct, T.O. would be more than willing to massage Donovan McNabb?s sports hernia.
My pick: Philadelphia (and to win)

Minnesota at Atlanta (-5.5)

Not a clue here, ladies and gentleman. It all depends on which Vikings team shows up. What?s that you say? Whichever team shows up will still be coached by Mike Tice? Then I?m definitely picking the Falcons to win.
My pick: Minnesota

Dallas at Oakland (-3)

Bill Parcells relinquished his play calling duties before the season started ? most likely because he was worried his legacy would be further tainted if he was solely responsible for the Cowboys offense. But regardless of that, with Parcells no longer calling the plays, it raises the question: who is calling the Cowboys? Jap plays?
My pick: Oakland

San Francisco at Arizona (-3)

The U.S. is already disliked enough around the world. Sending the likes of the 49ers and Cardinals to other countries to represent us isn?t going to help.
My pick: San Francisco

Green Bay at Carolina (-8)

I know what you?re thinking: ?Ooh! Ooh! The 0-3 Packers against the 1-2 Panthers on ?Monday Night Football!? How can it get any better?!? But I?m here to tell you that it can, as the Packers have two more appearances scheduled this season on ?MNF.? (But really, you can?t blame ABC for scheduling Green Bay so many times, since most everyone thought they were going to be great this season. And by ?great? I mean ?embarrassingly bad and unwatchable.?
My pick: Carolina

 

[Senor Capper]

Houston (+9?) at Cincinnati

Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, Rudi Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and the rest of the Bengals offense against one of the league's worst defenses means a long day for the Texans.

Bengals 28, Texans 13

***

Denver (+4) at Jacksonville

Give Mike Shanahan credit. He had a great game plan and had his team prepared for last week's 30-10 win over Kansas City. But the Broncos were awful in their season-opening road game at Miami. Until they prove they can beat a decent team on the road, it's tough to go with Broncos this week.

Jaguars 23, Broncos 20

***

Philadelphia (+2) at Kansas City

OK, Dick Vermeil, this is your chance to prove Monday's night's lame defensive effort against the Broncos was a fluke, and that you really have made improvements to your Kansas City defense.

Chiefs 24, Eagles 17

***

San Diego (+5) at New England

The personnel losses are piling up for the Patriots. First offensive coordinator Charlie Weis. Then defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel. Now, safety Rodney Harrison and offensive lineman Matt Light are done for the year. New England coach Bill Belichick faces his greatest challenge yet against a brutal schedule.

Patriots 28, Chargers 21

***

Buffalo (pick 'em) at New Orleans

Despite what the schedule indicates, this is not a home game for the Saints in San Antonio. But hopefully the fans can treat the Saints like the home team and help them to a win. Still rootin' for the Saints and picking them this week against a Buffalo team that struggles against decent opponents (see losses at Tampa Bay and to Atlanta at home.)

Saints 21, Bills 16

***

St. Louis (+3) at New York Giants

This one will be fun to watch. It's just a question of which one of these poor defenses can come up with a key stop late in the game.

Giants 31, Rams 30

***

Detroit (+7) at Tampa Bay

The Lions' shelf life atop the NFC North standings is short-lived. But hey, in that division, they could be in first place three, four, five more times before season's end. Then again, they could be in last place three, four, five more times before season's end.

Buccaneers 23, Lions 14

***

Indianapolis (-6?) at Tennessee

Who thought Eli Manning would have better numbers than Peyton Manning after three games? That Colts offense has to get going sometime, doesn't it?

Colts 24, Titans 14

***

Seattle (+2) at Washington

This is the game the Redskins can prove they are legit. But they will have to score more than the 11.5 points a game they are averaging to beat Seattle. The defense can't win every game for Washington this year.

Seahawks 17, Redskins 14

***

New York Jets (+7) at Baltimore

Here are the facts: The Jets are without starting quarterback Chad Pennington and backup Jay Fiedler. They will start Brooks Bollinger and back him up with Vinny Testaverde. Shudder. The Ravens are 0-2, including a season-opening loss to the Colts. The Ravens are at home for this one. Ed Reed and that Ravens defense should feast on the Jets.

Ravens 21, Jets 10

***

Minnesota (+5?) at Atlanta

The Vikings made progress with a win over the Saints last week. But the schedule isn't kind to Minnesota this week, as it heads to 2-1 Atlanta, which is coming a solid offensive performance against the Bills.

Almost forgot the Mike Tice quote of the week, talking about cornerback Fred Smoot: "Yeah, he loves when the crowd goes 'SMOOOOT' and all that stuff like that. He kind of plays off that. He was a guy who was angry all week because none of our backup quarterbacks threw any balls in his direction. It kind of confused me what he was saying during practice. He was saying, 'Give 27 some work out here,' and then in his next breath he would say, 'Throw to the open man.' I turned to him and said, 'Does that mean your guy is open every time or what?' "

Falcons 24, Vikings 21

***

Dallas (+3) at Oakland

The Raiders are the best winless team in the league. That's no consolation, but a win over the Cowboys will be a confidence builder.

Raiders 28, Cowboys 24

***

San Francisco (+3) vs. Arizona in Mexico City

The 49ers are awful on the road. The Cardinals are awful everywhere. And no Kurt Warner for Arizona. Advantage 49ers.

49ers 31, Cardinals 23

***

Green Bay (+7?) at Carolina

Green Bay has given up seven passing touchdowns and intercepted just one pass. Now, the Packers must stop Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith, the hottest QB-WR combo in the league.

Panthers 28, Packers 17
__________________

 

[Senor Capper]

GAME OF THE WEEK

Philadelphia at Kansas City. When you have two good coaches and two talented offenses and a great road team at a great home team, it's the most difficult of prognostications -- like the rest of them are easy, anyway.

Chiefs coach Dick Vermeil still is beloved in the City of Brotherly Love after taking the Eagles to their first Super Bowl. Current Eagles coach Andy Reid is coming off taking the Eagles to their second Super Bowl.

So what do you get with Trent Green, Priest Holmes and Tony Gonzalez vs. McNabb, Brian Westbrook and Terrell Owens? Plenty of big plays, with a little inconsistency. That's because the Chiefs' talented trio is trying to get in sync after a forgettable Monday night in Denver, and the Eagles' triplets are all banged up in the wrong places.

Defensively, the Eagles are more consistently sound, but something about the home energy brings the Chiefs alive on that side of the ball to deliver hits and come up with key takeaways. So, where do I end?

It comes down to picking KC for two little reasons: Playing in Arrowhead and having a slightly more experienced kicker. Chiefs 23, Eagles 20.

NFC GAME OF THE WEEK

Minnesota at Atlanta. Daunte Culpepper looked a lot more relaxed and was more confident in his Randy Moss-less, Nate Burleson-less wide receiver corps last week, and the result was a big, mistake-free day. Funny how having Mewelde Moore rushing for the century mark aided that, isn't it?

This week, however, the matchup isn't so good. Moore (5-11, 209), a smaller, quicker back, doesn't have the bulk to wear down an undersized, aggressive Atlanta front seven. That will put the pressure -- literally -- back on Culpepper, as pass rushers Patrick Kerney and Rod Coleman will be a load for the Vikes' overmatched line.

As for the Vikes' defense against Vick, um, well, with their struggles at linebacker, it will be hard to keep him from big runs and take away his favorite downfield target, tight end Alge Crumpler. Falcons 24, Vikings 17.

AFC GAME OF THE WEEK

San Diego at New England. Look for the best of Brady to come through here. The Chargers have the front seven to limit Corey Dillon, but their blitzes and adherence to single coverage will allow the Patriots to simply spread the field and let Brady, with his quick release, go to work to his myriad of receivers. That should lead to a few big plays early and put the visitors in the most uncomfortable position of playing from behind.

The Patriots' defense will welcome that situational help against LaDainian Tomlinson, as San Diego tends to limit his touches when it's trailing. The mix of 3-4 and 4-3 can do only so much to stop LT. Despite not having Rodney Harrison on Antonio Gates and young cornerbacks facing savvy Keenan McCardell, Bill Belichick will mask those weaknesses with his usual mixes of blitzes and coverages to frustrate Drew Brees. Patriots 27, Chargers 13.

RIVALRY OF THE WEEK

Indianapolis at Tennessee. Two years ago, these teams were neck-and-neck in the AFC South race, with Peyton Manning and Steve McNair winning co-MVP honors. Now, the Titans already are into rebuilding mode, and the Colts are looking out a championship window that may close in a couple of seasons.

Manning always gets a nice reception from Knoxville to Nashville when he returns to the Volunteer State, but Tennessee's D won't be too fond of Edgerrin James after this game. For Indy, it's no longer the 500 or Brickyard -- even if it's slow and steady on the ground, it can win the race. Colts 26, Titans 16.

SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK

Dallas at Oakland. Week 1 against the 'Boys: Keenan McCardell, two TDs. Week 2: Santana Moss. Week 3: Brandon Lloyd. Let me think, what's the name of the No. 1 receiver in Silver and Black -- oh yeah, that other Moss, Randy.

Week 1 against the Raiders: Corey Dillon. Week 2: Priest Holmes. Week 3: Brian Westbrook. Let me think, who's that young stud runner in the Silver and Blue -- oh yeah, Julius Jones.

The teams also have somehow kept immobile passers Kerry Collins and Drew Bledsoe on their feet to make big play after big play. Somehow, Collins also has thrown no picks, and that gives him the Black Hole edge over Bledsoe. Raiders 38, Cowboys 31.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Seattle over Washington. The Seahawks don't usually play well on the road, but I think they will be fooled that playing "in Washington" is really like playing "in Washington" this week. The Redskins have a terrific defense, but the combination of Walter Jones' blocking and Shaun Alexander's moves will be a challenge for their run stoppers.

Seattle's secondary also is playing well enough to contain Santana Moss, so the team can afford to sell out to stop Clinton Portis. I know the 'Hawks are traveling across the country and playing the Redskins, who are coming off a bye, but I don't buy the 2-0 'Skins as NFC playoff contenders just yet. Seahawks 20, Redskins 17.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati over Houston. This isn't a misprint. Don't adjust your monitor -- Cincy is supposed to come before "over." And I won't use that oft-quoted movie line to describe the Texans' woes, even though their offense has been as awful as Apollo 13 is overrated.

Speaking of Tom Hanks, Chad Johnson should start working on his acceptance speech for Best Lead Performance In The End Zone. I think he'll have a couple more times to riverdance this week in the first half, with Rudi Johnson taking on a impressive supporting role in the second half. Bengals 35, Texans 13.

REST OF THE WEEK

Buffalo at New Orleans. This would have been a chance for Tulane product J.P. Losman to go back to where he played in college. Instead, it's San Antonio's rare chance to see the pro football that the Alamdome was built for. This is technically the Saints' home opener, and I think they will play like it. Without Pat Williams and Takeo Spikes, the Bills are vulnerable against the run, meaning McAllister-McGahee will end in a draw. Of Losman and Aaron Brooks, the latter should make fewer mistakes. Saints 20, Bills 16.

St. Louis at New York Giants. Marc Bulger will light up the Giants' secondary, but Michael Strahan and the pass rush also will come up with some big plays. The hosts have been getting better protection for Eli Manning, and their offensive balance and versatility with Tiki Barber and Jeremy Shockey will be too much for the Rams' D by the fourth quarter. Giants 31, Rams 27.

Denver at Jacksonville. Each team will try to run the ball 30 times this week in an attempt to wear down the other team's strong front seven. It will take a big pass play to win the game, however, and with Jake Plummer back on the road, I like Byron Leftwich-to-Jimmy Smith to do the trick for the second consecutive week. Jaguars 19, Broncos 14.

Detroit at Tampa Bay. The Fords need their team to stop turning their running back into Kevin "Escort" Jones if they hope to stop the rest of their offense's engine trouble, because I hear rival General Motors is backing Cadillac's team this week. If you can find a better pick, buy it. Buccaneers 23, Lions 17.

New York Jets at Baltimore. The forecast for Maryland on Sunday: Cloudy backup QB situations with a slight chance of points. If you love hard-hitting defenses, this one's for you. Ravens 10, Jets 6.

San Francisco at Arizona. Are you ready for some real futbol, Mexico City? South of the border, they're probably rethinking NAFTA after we sent them this game. Even so, at least the Cards get a "home" sellout out of it, because with their now Kurt Warner-less offense struggling, they will fall short against Mike Nolan's newly energized Niners. Will someone say "FIELD GOOOOOOAAAAAAL" when Joe Nedney kicks home the game-winner? 49ers 20, Cardinals 17.

Green Bay at Carolina. The last time Steve Smith played the Pack on a Monday night, he was forced to pack it in for '04 with a fractured fibula. By what he did in Week 3, I'm guessing he's at "full speed" and ready to put that memory behind him. With both pass defenses struggling, Smith will help Delhomme win an old-style Southern shootout over Brett Favre. Panthers 26, Packers 23.

BYES OF THE WEEK

The Bears can contend in a bad NFC North, but like the Jets and Ravens, they have little room for error. Protect the ball, run often, keep solid defense rested enough to make plays, repeat. Any other game plan isn't an option. ...

The Dolphins have been a big surprise, and it's all a change in attitude from Nick Saban's coaching. I don't think they will stay in the AFC East race for the long haul, but I don't think any team wants to face them in Miami at this point. ...

Speaking of new coaches, Romeo Crennel has inspired some good play out of his Browns, making them no longer a gimme on the schedule. With Chicago, Baltimore, Detroit, Houston and Tennessee in their next five games, who knows? ...

The Steelers, on the other hand, have a tough stretch ahead, starting with a Week 5 Monday nighter at San Diego, followed by Jacksonville and Cincinnati
__________________

 

[Senor Capper]

Houston (+10) at Cincinnati

The Texans have had two weeks to stew after embarrassing losses to the Bills and Steelers. Look for new offensive coordinator Joe Pendry to try to gash the Bengals with the run, as the team?s passing game needs an overhaul. However, Houston could really struggle vs. Cincinnati?s quick, confident defense. The Texans will remind the Bengals a lot of last week?s opponent, the Bears. Like Chicago, the Texans have one reliable wide receiver (Andre Johnson) and a quarterback (David Carr) who stares him down way too often. Houston has too many offensive problems to fix in one game. The Bengals ? well, you know about their offense. They can pretty much attack the Texans any which way, as Houston?s ?D? doesn?t excel in any area. Noted: The Bengals are 0-3 ATS as favorites of seven points or more since 1995. Also noted: This Bengals team would whip any other Bengals team from the last 10 years. This is a hungry group that?s enjoying its recent prosperity.

Wilkening?s pick: Cincinnati



San Diego (+5?) at New England

There is a compelling case to be made for the Chargers. They haven?t suffered an ATS loss in their last nine road games (seven wins, two pushes). The Patriots will be without RB Kevin Faulk, SS Rodney Harrison and OLT Matt Light. San Diego is a few breaks away from being 3-0, and the offense absolutely crushed the Giants last week. So, yes, I can see where someone would take the points. But I?m sticking with the champs in this one. They?re excellent as three- to seven-point home favorites the last two years, posting an 8-2-1 ATS mark. And no team responds as well to adversity as the Pats do. I?m not overlooking the injury favor; I simply can?t get over the way the Patriots controlled the second half of their Week Three win at Pittsburgh. Frankly, the Steelers were lucky to be as close as they were at the end. If the Steelers couldn?t beat the Pats at Heinz Field, I can?t pick the Chargers to cover this number at Gillette Stadium.

Wilkening?s pick: New England



Minnesota (+6) at Atlanta

I have a pretty good idea of what the Falcons will give me from game to game. They will be committed to the running game, and they will be quick and disruptive on defense, especially at the Georgia Dome. I have no idea what the Vikings will give me. Minnesota?s offense showed improvement last week, with QB Daunte Culpepper leading a rout of the Saints. But can they muster a similar effort vs. an Atlanta defense that?s solid vs. the pass? The Falcons can be attacked with the running game, but the Vikings? commitment to that offensive component varies from moment to moment. See where I?m going here? The Falcons, 19-9 ATS as three- to seven-point home favorites the last 10 years, earn another cover here.

Wilkening?s pick: Atlanta



St. Louis (+3) at N.Y. Giants

These teams have some things in common. Both are 2-1. Both have dispatched the Cardinals. Neither can stop the pass consistently. This has shootout written all over it, but who?s got the edge? The Giants? defense can?t be as awful as it was last week in San Diego, when the Chargers? game plan gave defensive coordinator Tim Lewis fits. And the Rams? run defense isn?t as strong as its lofty ranking. I see Giants RB Tiki Barber giving the Rams fits, and offensive coordinator John Hufnagel ? one of the more underrated assistants in the game ? employing a balanced, potent attack. The Giants have covered in the last three matchups between the teams, and I expect them to make it four in a row. The Rams, who haven?t covered on the road against a non-divisional foe since Week 14 of the 2003 season, will have to wait until Week Six at Indianapolis to break that streak.

Wilkening?s pick: N.Y. Giants

 

[Senor Capper]

Buffalo at New Orleans EVEN

Steve Lassan

Neither team has played really well this season, with the exception of their one victory. The Saints are playing their first home game in San Antonio, which should provide a boost after two tough losses. The Bills offense is struggling and J.P. Losman has dropped off after his first game. Tough one to call, but I'll go with the Saints.

Straight: Saints
Spread: Saints

John McMullen

Will Willis McGahee keep rushing for more yards than J.P. Losman throws? You bet; this week I?m guessing McGahee - 144, Los?e?man - 126.

Straight--Saints
Spread--Saints

J J Pesavento

The Bills have Willis McGahee and apparently not much else on offense. The Sainst aren?t exactly loaded, but I trust them more than the Bills at this point.

Straight-Saints
Spread--Saints



Denver at Jacksonville (-4)

Steve Lassan

The Jaguars pulled off a solid victory over the Jets and they are keeping within range of the Colts in the AFC South. The Jaguars have another touch match-up against the Broncos this week, but I think they'll grab another victory. The Jaguars need play on their offensive line and keep quarterback Byron Leftwich off the turf. Jags win a close one.

Straight: Jaguars
Spread: Jaguars

John McMullen

Denver surprised me with a great MNF performance but this is on the road against a good defense. That means, a big Jake Plummer mistake to turn the tide.


Straight--Jaguars
Spread--Jaguars

J J Pesavento

Denver played their best game of the season against the Chiefs. They won?t have the same luck on the road against the Jags. I like Jacksonville.

Straight-- Jaguars
Spread-- Jaguars



Detroit at Tampa Bay (-7)

Steve Lassan

The Bucs defense has played alright this season and the Lions offense could be in for another tough performance. Joey Harrington is playing for his job this season and this isn't a good match-up. The Bucs offense is powered by a Cadillac and he'll rumble for another good performance and lead the Bucs to a 4-0 start.

Straight: Bucs
Spread: Bucs

John McMullen

Tampa at 4-0? I don?t see why not. I guess you can be successful despite an overbearing, haughty, arrogant, domineering, pompous egomaniacal......................(whew, ran out of adjectives) coach.

Straight--Bucs
Spread--Bucs

J J Pesavento

Here is a no brainer. Tampa has the best defense in the NFL and the best running back in the NFL in terms of yardage. Put Joey Harrington up against the Bucs defense and it gets even uglier. Bucs stay unbeaten.

Straight-- Bucs
Spread-- Bucs


Houston at Cincinnati (-10)

Steve Lassan

No, this is not a misprint. The Bengals are 3-0 and they will beat the Texans to go 4-0. Unfortunately, the Texans have a tough schedule and their offensive line still isn't protecting David Carr. At some point, the Texans will improve and notch a victory, but it won't be this week.

Straight: Bengals
Spread: Bengals

John McMullen

I have been slow to jump on the Bungles bandwagon and I won?t be convinced until they beat Pittsburgh. But the wagon rolls on this week......Houston is a mess


Straight--Bengals
Spread--Bengals

J J Pesavento

No contest here. The Bengals are on a roll right now and the Texans are sliding badly. Striped cats all the way.

Straight-- Bengals
Spread-- Bengals



Indianapolis (-7) at Tennessee

Steve Lassan

Although the Colts offense isn't quite playing as well as last season, there is no reason to panic just yet. The defense is playing well and the Titans provide the perfect remedy for the Colts offense. The Titans defense has one of the worst secondaries in the NFL and Peyton Manning should take advantage. Colts stay unbeaten, but Steve McNair will battle and keep it close.

Straight: Colts
Spread: Colts

John McMullen

The Colts? MVP?......Dwight Freeney by a mile...Take that Peyton and while you are at it, call up your brother and figure out how to throw a TD pass again

Straight--Colts
Spread--Titans

J J Pesavento

The Colts are overdue for a big game and I think they have it this week against Tennessee. Peyton Manning can?t be held down all year.

Straight-- Colts
Spread-- Colts


Philadelphia at Kansas City (-2)

Steve Lassan

This is the best match-up of week four, as both teams are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The Eagles have two concerns with injuries. Quarterback Donovan McNabb continues to be bothered by injuries and kicker David Akers has a bad hamstring injury. The Chiefs are at home and are tough to beat, but I think McNabb will play alright and lead the Eagles to a victory

Straight:Eagles
Spread:Eagles

John McMullen

The Eagles are without kicker David Akers and their QB is nursing about 15 injuries including a possible sports hernia thanks to Andy Reid?s obsession with the pass. Whatever happened to balance? Last week, it was 52 throws against 15 runs for the Birds. McNabb is lucky he?s alive..........And closed circuit to the defensive coordinators facing the Eagles....Reid hates the run so why don?t you use the nickel as your base defense and have a cornerback chase Brian Westbrook around instead of a lumbering 240-pound linebacker?......Just a thought....As for the game, this is the start of that tougher season I was talking about Philly fans.

Straight: Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs

J J Pesavento

The Chiefs really, and I mean really disappointed me with their performance against Denver. This is a close one but the Chiefs are tough at home and will be in a foul mood.

Straight: Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs


San Diego at New England (-5.5)

Steve Lassan

The Patriots knocked off the Steelers last week, but they face another tough game against the Chargers. The Chargers finally got their first victory after two close losses. I wouldn't be surprised to see this one be another close contested game and I wouldn't be surprised if the Chargers pull off the upset. However, the Patriots are at home and I think they'll get a close victory.

Straightats
Spread: Chargers

John McMullen

No Bruschi, No Johnson, No Harrison, No Light...........Sooner or later, it has to show up, doesn?t it? Well I?ll believe it when I see it.

Straight: Pats
Spread: Chargers

J J Pesavento

Big news flash, the Pats still have something most teams don?t and proved it last week against the Steelers.

Straight: Pats
Spread: Pats


Seattle at Washington (-2)

Steve Lassan

Hopefully during the Redskins bye week, they worked on their offense, or they could carry their performance from their victory against Dallas. The Seahawks are coming off a huge performance against the Cardinals and have the advantage in this one. Although the Redskins have a good defense, I like the Seahawks to win.

Straight: Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks

John McMullen

Gibbs pulls another rabbit out of his hat in the last minute.

Straight: Redskins
Spread: Redskins

J J Pesavento

Okay, which Seattle team is going to show up? The Skins have very little offense so I take the Hawks.

Straight: Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks


St. Louis at N.Y. Giants (-3)

Steve Lassan

This could be an offensive showdown as both teams have struggled on defense this year. The Rams are coming off a good victory against the Titans, while the Giants are coming off their pasting against the Chargers. The Rams are the better team and although the Giants are at home, I'll take the Rams.

Straight: Rams
Spread: Rams

John McMullen

Quarterback 101 for the benefit of those reading. Marc Bulger is underrated; Eli Manning is overrated. Meanwhile down the hall in Coaching 101, the lecture is.......... Tom Coughlin is underrated; Mike Martz is a moron...........So who wins?....Talent trumps coaching.

Straight: Rams
Spread: Rams

J J Pesavento

The Rams have yet to impress me this season. The Giants are playing better than I expected them to. I like the Giants.

Straight:Giants
Spread: Giants
__________________

 

[Senor Capper]

N.Y. Jets at Baltimore (-7)

Steve Lassan

The Jets and Ravens are both having issues at the quarterback spot. The Jets don't have Chad Pennington and he appears to be done for the rest of the season. In addition, back-up Jay Fiedler is injured. If the Jets have to go with Brooks Bollinger, I don't think they can win. Unless Bollinger is Tom Brady when Drew Bledsoe was injured, I think the Jets face an uphill climb. The Ravens are without starter Kyle Boller, but Anthony Wright is a capable player. Tough one to call, but at the battle of wounded quarterbacks, I like the Ravens.

Straight: Ravens
Spread: Ravens

John McMullen

Note to Brian Billick...........Brooks Bollinger will be playing QB for the Jets! If Billick can?t win this one he should take the honorable way out like a disgraced Japanese businessman.

Straight--Ravens
Spread--Ravens

J J Pesavento

The Jets weren?t playing all that well before Chad Pennington went down. They won?t be able to crack the Ravens defense this week.

Straight-- Ravens
Spread-- Ravens


Dallas at Oakland (-3)

Steve Lassan

The Raiders are much better than their 0-3 record would indicate, but a few breaks have gone the other way. The Cowboys defense has struggled at times this season, particulary against San Francisco, which was surprising. Can the Raiders upset the Cowboys for their first victory? Tough call, but I'll give the advantage to the Cowboys in a close, close ball game.

Straight: Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys

John McMullen

I?m not enamored with the Cowboys but Kerry Collins is now 3-13 as a starter in Oakland. Translation.....Collins will find a way to lose.

Straight--Cowboys
Spread--Cowboys

J J Pesavento

The Boys are 2-0 on the west coast this year. I may regret this but this one is too close to call and Oakland has to win one sooner or later. I think they do that this week.

Straight: Raiders
Spread: Raiders


Minnesota at Atlanta (-6)

Steve Lassan

Will the Vikings win two in a row or will they resort to their struggles of their first two games? I think the Vikings still have a chance to win the NFC North, but I think the Falcons will take home a victory. Look for Michael Vick to have a solid day on the ground and through the air.

Straight: Falcons
Spread: Falcons

John McMullen

For better or worse, the ?Human Turnover? is the barometer for the Vikings. And, since Daunte usually freezes up quicker than the Minnesota winters when he gets a modicum of early inside pressure, I like Atlanta....They have Rod Coleman to give Cory Withrow fits.


Straight: Falcons
Spread: Falcons

J J Pesavento

The Vikes finally came around last week, but I?m still skeptical. I like Vick and the Falcons here.

Straight:Falcons
Spread: Falcons


San Francisco at Arizona (-3)

Steve Lassan

The Cardinals are better than 0-3 and the 49ers have surprisingly played well this season. I didn't think the 49ers would play that well this season, but they continue to surprise many. This game is the first regular season game outside of the United States and I think the Cardinals will win their first game of the 2005 season.

Straight: Cards
Spread: Cards

John McMullen

Mexico City gets football!....Well not football but a reasonable facsimile in the 49ers and the Cardinals. If Denny can?t win this one, he should join his protege in looking for the honorable way out.

Straight: Cards
Spread: Cards

J J Pesavento

Neither team has shown me much this season. The Cards are a disappointment considering Denny Green can usually get a team to play at a high level. Without Kurt Warner, I have to take the Niners.

Straight: Niners
Spread: Niners


Green Bay at Carolina (-7)

Steve Lassan

I really hate to see Brett Favre losing, especially since he is one of the most competitive players in all of the NFL. However, I just don't think the Packers are good enough to get a victory this week either, especially against a good Panthers team. The Panthers should've beat the Dolphins and they need to find some consistency this year.

Straight: Panthers
Spread: Packers

John McMullen

A Brett Favre team at 0-4? Hard to believe but bank it.

Straight: Panthers
Spread: Packers

J J Pesavento

The Packers have problems, and big ones. The biggest will be moving the ball on the Panthers defense. I like the Panthers.

Straight: Panthers
Spread: Panthers
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