plays & angles for 9/28-10/1.........

[AR182]

here is this week's article from peter fiutak about double digit home underdogs.....


In the weekly tracking of my theory that, after the early part of the year, the double-digit home underdog almost always covers (also called the DDHD by a certain ?worldwide leader? who isn?t giving any credit), the home underdog went 5-3 last week (62%).

- Iowa State -17.5 at Army ? WIN 28-21 Iowa State
- Cal -30 at New Mexico State ? WIN 41-13 Cal
- Florida -22.5 at Kentucky ? WIN 49-28 Kentucky (thank you, Curtis Pulley)
- Notre Dame -13.5 at Washington .. LOSS 36-17 Notre Dame (but I told you the line was weird on this one)
- Louisville -21.5 at South Florida ? WIN 45-14 South Florida
- USC -21.5 at Oregon ? LOSS 45-13 USC
- Georgia -14.5 at Miss State ? WIN 23-10 Georgia
- Michigan State -10.5 at Illinois ? LOSS 61-14 Michigan State

This week?s double-digit home dogs ?
- Virginia Tech -11 at West Virginia (however, WVA has an injured QB. That didn?t work out so well for Georgia Tech last week)
- Connecticut -10 at Army (I hate this one. The line should be at least 17)
- Texas -15.5 at Missouri (love, love, love the Tigers here)
- USC -17 at Arizona State (17 isn?t all that many, but this could be a 52-38 shootout getting the job done for ASU)
- Boise State -11 at Hawaii (Don?t like it. Hawaii?s D isn?t nearly as good as it showed against Idaho)

 

[BuffaloBill]

AR,

Which QB is out for WVU? Bednarick or White?

Also, why do you like the Tigers? I just don't see it. Do you feel that they can win straight up, or do you just like them with the points?

I was thinking of teasing texas. No way do I see them dropping this one.

Missouri has no defense, and I can't see them stopping Vince Young.

Thanks.

 

[AR182]

buffalo bill,

these are not my bets......the above is just part of an article about double digit home dogs which i have posted the past few years.

 

[BuffaloBill]

Got ya. Thanks.

 

[Irish]

thanks for the info AR
GL this weekend
Cheers
Irish

 

[AR182]

thanks...

59-37-1 +31.60*

making a small play on.....

1*u63(122) col. st./a.f.

good luck.

 

[trolln4walii]

Congrats on the great season you're having AR. Really impressive!! GL on the under tonight. I have a little on that play too.... can't be good for you. I've been demoted to the "C" squad (think it stands for crappy) with my picks lately :mj07:

 

[AR182]

walii,

thanks for the nice words...

in your case.."c' stands for class....

nothing but..since you have been posting here.

good luck.

 

[AR182]

i'm due for a bad week, but will continue playing games like i have been doing for the past month & we'll see what happens........

here are 2 angles, from a well respected capper on another forum......

college dogs that out rushed their favored opponents were 11-3 ats last week, bringing the season record to 31-8-2 ats(79%)

college teams that scored 40 or more points in a game were 14-3-1 ats last week bringing the season total to 52-13-3 ats (80%).

some of my plays for saturday.....all for 2*

iowa-17.......

except for san jose, illinois has given up over 30 points to every opponent this year & is allowing an average of 215 yds. on the ground.....so i think iowa is a team that can score over 40 points in this game.also have heard that iowa coach, ferentz has not been happy with his team's practices this year so i expect a very crisp iowa team on sat.iowa is 25-4 ats in their last 29 home games & 6-0 ats at home off a loss in last 6 times...

fla. st.-21.....

i heard that bowden is happy that he finally has a qb, who understands the offensive system.the syracuse coach is converting the offense to a west coach type of offense...the problem is that these players were recruited to play an option type of offense.....so the syr.offense has & will struggle......as evidenced in their 2 games vs.w. vir.& virginia...in these 2 games syr. was out rushed by a 443-98 margined & had 23 first downs combined in those 2 games.on defense syr. is allowing 4.7 yds. per rush.....here is something interesting....syracuse is 4-43 ats in their last 47 road losses..fla. st. is 36-12 ats in it's last 48 su wins vs. an opponent off an ats win......after last year's close game, fla. st. will take syr. seriously...

2*miami fla.-21.....

last week so. fla. beat a ranked opponent for the first time in it's history.....so i think miami will not look past so. fla...all 3 of so. fla. wins were at home & in addition to beating louisville, their other wins were against 2 division 1-aa schools......i expect a blow out here.....2 angles that support this play.....

play against any non-conference college team who won su as a dog of 20+ points last week vs. a foe that allows <35.5 ppg.....since 1980...ats record is 18-2 (90%)...play against so. fla.....here is another angle.....

teams coming off an upset win,as a 20 +pt.dog,by 10 points or more are 4-9-1 ats (1995-2005)...(30.8%)...play against so. fla.....

u49(130) navy/duke.....

duke is starting a freshman qb & navy is a running team that should eat up the clock....

penn. st.+4(120).....

i think the wrong team is favored in this game.....also think minn. may be a little flat after their emotional win over purdue last week in ot..... it was the their first win vs. purdue in 6 tries....expect psu to stack the line & force minn. to win the game through the air.....& cupito usually is good for a few mistakes a game....also in matchups of teams, road favorite who covered their last game are 1-7 ats in the last 8 times.....

maryland +4(120).......

virginia has some injuries on the offensive line... their top 2 centers & their all-acc tackle may be out...which explains why virginia rushed for only 113 yds.at 3.6 yds. per rushing attempt last week vs. duke.....virginia is 4-11 ats in their last 15 games on the road...md. is 7-0 ats as a dog of +7 or less in conference play....

wf+7.....

clemson has played unbelievable games so far this year...all 4 of their games have been razor thin & their last 2 have been ot home losses.....they very well could be emotionally & physically drained for this road game vs. wake..clemson has won 9 of the last 11 games vs. wake, but only 3 covers...

good luck.

 

[AR182]

i'll be pretty busy tomorrow, so i thought i would post all of my plays.....

in addition to what i already posted....will play these for 2*......

wyoming-16(120)
bg-28
uab-17
tex. tech-17
idaho+3
tex.a & m-21(130)
ucla-21
bama+4(120)
mich. st.-5
purdue-3
u50 e.car./s.miss
neb.-3
o59 tex./mizz.
wash.st.+3(130)
u49(120) army/conn.
sdst.+2
n. mex.+3(120)
stanford+7
laf.+4(120)
monroe+3
u49 okla./kst.

this should keep me busy for the day.....

good luck

 

[smurphy]

That's quite a massive card there, young fellow. Just means more wins I reckon. Good luck this week!

 

[Clem D]

keep it up bud. Always great info in yiur threads

 

[PRO190]

WOW AR you are on a Roll , very nice..

Going with you on Mizzou and IOWA !!!!!!!!!!

 

[BadAngel]

Go get em AR.

 

[AR182]

thanks guys.....

adding.....

4*u49 (130)tcu/n.mex.


good luck.

 

[Padre]

#9 09-30-2005, 06:27 PM
AR182
Registered User Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Scottsdale,AZ
Posts: 4,874

i'm due for a bad week, but will continue playing games like i have been doing for the past month & we'll see what happens........

here are 2 angles, from a well respected capper on another forum......

college dogs that out rushed their favored opponents were 11-3 ats last week, bringing the season record to 31-8-2 ats(79%)

college teams that scored 40 or more points in a game were 14-3-1 ats last week bringing the season total to 52-13-3 ats (80%).

some of my plays for saturday.....all for 2*



________________________________________________________________________________



Question is are these angles after the fact: i mean after the games have played the angle is if the underdog outran the fav then they should have covered.

or is it the previous week: EX: if USC vs. Notre Dame. the angle is if USC scored 40 last week and ND did not then USC should cover this game.

or is it the game is now over and the final is USC 42 ND 21, then they say that since USC scored 40 then they should have covered the number?


are these angles used to predict using last weeks info or are they used to say if i think that USC is capable of scoring 40 and ND is not then i should lay the points (that is if USC is fav).

i mean that doesnt help much, cuz i could say anyone that scored 60 or more is undeated ATS.