7-6-1 (+1.21)
Cinci -9.5
I just don't think this one is even close. No trends or long-winded reasons here, just a good team beating the pants off a crappy one.
As a wise man once said, "Anyone who is looking at Houston this week needs a kick in the head!"
Washington v. Seattle under 36.5
One of my all time favourite systems in play in this game....
League: 6-35 under (Av 33.4...-7.0) home 3- fav off a BYE. [Wash]
(1-21 under (av. 31.6...-9.1) since 1997!!)
0-7 under (av. 26.0...-9.2) if total <37.
Can't explain it. There doesn't seem to be any correlation between win/loss/rush/pass...anything, other than it's low scoring!
Who am I to argue.
Washington allow just 2.8 y/rush (2nd best to Tampa), and both the 'Skins and Seattle allow just on 6 y/pass and ~55%.
Seems fair to me.
KC -1.5 (2.01)
League: 20-14-3 (Av. win 6.0) home 3- fav off 14+ ats loss as away 7- dog. [KC]
8-1-3 (Av. win 8.5) if opp last failed to cover as fav.
Roaf back this week will give the running game a huge shot in the arm.
McNabb hurting, Akers out, and besides, I don't think Philli's performances have been that good.
KC will be a totally different team at home than the one we saw on Monday night at their bogey ground, Denver.
Tenn +7
League: 5-18 (Av. LOSS 1.6) away 3+ fav off 7+ SU win but ats loss as home 10+ fav. [Indi] (0-2 last season)
2-13 (Av. LOSS 1.5) if total 40+
1-7 SU!! (0-8 ats...av. LOSS 1.6) if opp was last away. (0-1 SU last season...Mia 29-28 NE as +9.5!)
They are allowing 4.1 yard/rush and 6th worst 64.3% completion rate. It's just been lucky for them (imo) that they've faced 3 of the worst offensive teams in the NFL. (All 3 will almost certainly be in the bottom 10 for points/offense)
Tenn can move the ball and score. Also McNair is much more mobile than any other QB they've faced, so the pass rush won't be as effective.
The main reason they have been so conservative on offense so far is to keep their D well rested and on the sidelines...Tenn will be able to make some big strikes and put some score-board pressure on so Indi can't control the game.
Everyone loves Indi atm, mainly because of this 'newly discovered D', but keep in mind they are only 1-2 ats so far (0-2 last 2), so they are getting too much repect.
San Fran/'Zona over 42.5
2 terrible defenses, and both losing more starters during the week.
I think the total is a bit lower for 2 reasons; Warner out, and the game being in Mexico City.
But, both meetings last season ended 31-28...and both with McCown at QB for Arizona.
Not sure the venue will matter much, so over we go!
NE/SD under 47.5 (1.98)
League: 7-21-1 under (Av. 33.6...-7.3) home 7- fav off 3- SU win as away 3- dog. [NE]
(3-16-1 under (av. 32.4...-9.3) since '96)
(4-12-1 under (av. 35.3) if total is 40+)
(3-14-1 under (av. 32.3) if opp is off an ats win)
Not sure I'm all that fond of this one with SD's pass D looking poor, and NE getting thinner by the day, but it is a lot of points, and SD weren't exactly lighting it up before last week, so I'll go with the numbers.
Good Luck all
Cinci -9.5
I just don't think this one is even close. No trends or long-winded reasons here, just a good team beating the pants off a crappy one.
As a wise man once said, "Anyone who is looking at Houston this week needs a kick in the head!"
Washington v. Seattle under 36.5
One of my all time favourite systems in play in this game....
League: 6-35 under (Av 33.4...-7.0) home 3- fav off a BYE. [Wash]
(1-21 under (av. 31.6...-9.1) since 1997!!)
0-7 under (av. 26.0...-9.2) if total <37.
Can't explain it. There doesn't seem to be any correlation between win/loss/rush/pass...anything, other than it's low scoring!
Who am I to argue.
Washington allow just 2.8 y/rush (2nd best to Tampa), and both the 'Skins and Seattle allow just on 6 y/pass and ~55%.
Seems fair to me.
KC -1.5 (2.01)
League: 20-14-3 (Av. win 6.0) home 3- fav off 14+ ats loss as away 7- dog. [KC]
8-1-3 (Av. win 8.5) if opp last failed to cover as fav.
Roaf back this week will give the running game a huge shot in the arm.
McNabb hurting, Akers out, and besides, I don't think Philli's performances have been that good.
KC will be a totally different team at home than the one we saw on Monday night at their bogey ground, Denver.
Tenn +7
League: 5-18 (Av. LOSS 1.6) away 3+ fav off 7+ SU win but ats loss as home 10+ fav. [Indi] (0-2 last season)
2-13 (Av. LOSS 1.5) if total 40+
1-7 SU!! (0-8 ats...av. LOSS 1.6) if opp was last away. (0-1 SU last season...Mia 29-28 NE as +9.5!)
They are allowing 4.1 yard/rush and 6th worst 64.3% completion rate. It's just been lucky for them (imo) that they've faced 3 of the worst offensive teams in the NFL. (All 3 will almost certainly be in the bottom 10 for points/offense)
Tenn can move the ball and score. Also McNair is much more mobile than any other QB they've faced, so the pass rush won't be as effective.
The main reason they have been so conservative on offense so far is to keep their D well rested and on the sidelines...Tenn will be able to make some big strikes and put some score-board pressure on so Indi can't control the game.
Everyone loves Indi atm, mainly because of this 'newly discovered D', but keep in mind they are only 1-2 ats so far (0-2 last 2), so they are getting too much repect.
San Fran/'Zona over 42.5
2 terrible defenses, and both losing more starters during the week.
I think the total is a bit lower for 2 reasons; Warner out, and the game being in Mexico City.
But, both meetings last season ended 31-28...and both with McCown at QB for Arizona.
Not sure the venue will matter much, so over we go!
NE/SD under 47.5 (1.98)
League: 7-21-1 under (Av. 33.6...-7.3) home 7- fav off 3- SU win as away 3- dog. [NE]
(3-16-1 under (av. 32.4...-9.3) since '96)
(4-12-1 under (av. 35.3) if total is 40+)
(3-14-1 under (av. 32.3) if opp is off an ats win)
Not sure I'm all that fond of this one with SD's pass D looking poor, and NE getting thinner by the day, but it is a lot of points, and SD weren't exactly lighting it up before last week, so I'll go with the numbers.
Good Luck all
