Miami/N. Illinois under 61: This is going fast so I wanted to post it now. Not a lot of analysis on this one but I have it lined at 54. I wanted to grab the 61 now and look to buy some back later if the line moves as much as I expect it to.
College FB Picks (10/3-10/8), YTD 27-21-1, +3.8 units
- Thread starter BGFalcon
- Start date
I was leaning towards the under with my thinking that as long as NILL stays ahead or close then they will use their running game which will shorten the clock. Although, In the past Miami has been one of the few MAC teams that seem to be able to control the line of scrimmage on defense.
Tuesday night
Tuesday night
Troy St./North Texas over 46: These two teams are nowhere near what they have been in the past few years from a defensive standpoint. Both have had over 50 dropped on them at least once. Granted, neither team has put up good numbers offensively but they will tonight. NT should be able to get the running game going early and Troy's passing game has been decent. Mix this in with a Tuesday night game in Texas and we've got the recipe for a high-scoring game. I have it lined at 52 points.
Tuesday night
Troy St./North Texas over 46: These two teams are nowhere near what they have been in the past few years from a defensive standpoint. Both have had over 50 dropped on them at least once. Granted, neither team has put up good numbers offensively but they will tonight. NT should be able to get the running game going early and Troy's passing game has been decent. Mix this in with a Tuesday night game in Texas and we've got the recipe for a high-scoring game. I have it lined at 52 points.
I think the side is about right but the 61 is a little high. Northern Illinois is not nearly as bad defensively as they have shown and has had 10 days to prepare for this one. Miami is also able to come up with a big stop when they need to. Both teams need this game badly so they might play a little more conservatively. This will be a close game where ball control will come into play in the second half. That is usually a good sign for the under, especially when the total is 61.
Indiana -6 over Illinois: I know, I know...how can I lay chalk with a team that barely beat Nicholls St? The answer is, because the Biting Illini are really bad. Also, it appears they may have packed it in already. They began the season with a nice come from behind victory over Ruptures (who really hasn't beaten anyone this year) and then beat that football powerhouse San Jose St. Even the relatively close loss to undefeated Cal is not impressive since Cal's opponents have combined for a 5-19 record. Since then they have gotten smacked by Sparty and the Hawkeyes. Indiana, on the other hand, has shown improvement this year. They are getting better defensively and have a balanced offense. Looking at the remaining schedule, they might only have a chance to win other game (Minnesota) so I think we will get their best effort here.
Iona +6 over St. Peter's: Another classic MAAC matchup with the wrong team favored. Iona has been much more competitive this year and has gotten better each week. If they could throw the ball a little bit better they would be a solid team. Freshman RB Maurice Thomas played a big role in last week's comeback and should continue to get more and more carries as the season goes on. St. Peter's is rotten. They are bad defensively and turn the ball over frequently. I won't be surprised to see this line at PK by gametime.
A few more Div I-AA games:
A few more Div I-AA games:
E.Washington -8.5 over N. Arizona: EWU got back on track to winning the Big Sky with a nice win (and cover) and should roll to a big win this week. Northern Arizona's defense is horrible so EWU should put up some big numbers. I don't like laying more than a TD on the road but this game should be lined at 21.
Hampton -8 over Gardner Webb: I don't understand this line either. Hampton is 5-0 and hasn't given up more than 14 in a game. Gardner Webb is rotten. The book must think GW's game last week against Furman was as close as the score indicates. It wasn't. Furman was up 42-10 early in the second half and sent in the AYO's so no one would get hurt for their big game this week against Appalachian St. Hampton wins this big.
W. Kentucky +7 over Illinois St.: I have WKU as a 3 point favorite so I'll gladly take the points. Both teams should be able to score with WKU throwing the ball well and Illinois St. showing a strong ground game. Interestingly, one of ISU's running backs is former Michigan running back Pierre Rembert. In a close game that should be in the mid-30's, I'll take a touchdown for the cover.
Really want to take Furman +6.5 over Appalachian St. but I'm not sure yet. Furman has a great QB and needs a win to have a chance for the Southern Conference title but Appalachian St. has won three straight in this matchup. If it gets to 7 or 7.5 I'll probably take it, but not at 6.5.
By the way, Iona is now down to +1 over St. Peter's.
A few more Div I-AA games:
E.Washington -8.5 over N. Arizona: EWU got back on track to winning the Big Sky with a nice win (and cover) and should roll to a big win this week. Northern Arizona's defense is horrible so EWU should put up some big numbers. I don't like laying more than a TD on the road but this game should be lined at 21.
Hampton -8 over Gardner Webb: I don't understand this line either. Hampton is 5-0 and hasn't given up more than 14 in a game. Gardner Webb is rotten. The book must think GW's game last week against Furman was as close as the score indicates. It wasn't. Furman was up 42-10 early in the second half and sent in the AYO's so no one would get hurt for their big game this week against Appalachian St. Hampton wins this big.
W. Kentucky +7 over Illinois St.: I have WKU as a 3 point favorite so I'll gladly take the points. Both teams should be able to score with WKU throwing the ball well and Illinois St. showing a strong ground game. Interestingly, one of ISU's running backs is former Michigan running back Pierre Rembert. In a close game that should be in the mid-30's, I'll take a touchdown for the cover.
Really want to take Furman +6.5 over Appalachian St. but I'm not sure yet. Furman has a great QB and needs a win to have a chance for the Southern Conference title but Appalachian St. has won three straight in this matchup. If it gets to 7 or 7.5 I'll probably take it, but not at 6.5.
By the way, Iona is now down to +1 over St. Peter's.
thanks for the 1-aa picks, i love these. missed out on iona, they're currently at -1 at 5dimes. nice call on the line move!
A few more...
A few more...
Wisconsin -6 over Northwestern: Defense will be the difference here. Wisconsin can play it, NW can't.
Iowa/Purdue over 51.5 and Iowa +4.5: The lowest point total in a Purdue game this year has been 55. Iowa has scored 35 or more 3 times and must be licking their chops to go against the Boilermaker defense, ranked 110th in the nation. The Hawkeyes still have a realistic shot at sharing the title if they can win a few key games and get some help from either Penn St. or Michigan against Ohio St. Joe "The Gardener" Tiller has somehow managed to blow Purdont's chances to win the league already. They had a great schedule (no Michigan or Ohio St.) and still messed it up. I'll take the Hawkeyes plus the points in a shootout.
Army/Central Michigan under 51: Army's defense is so-so and their offense is bad. CMU is one of the surprises of the MAC but may be looking ahead to the rest of the league schedule. I have this one lined at 43.
If you were able to get W. Kentucky at +7 you might want to look at buying some back with Illinois St. -2. That's a pretty big middle opportunity. Same thing with Furman. If you grabbed the +6.5 you can now play the other side with Appalachian St. -1.5. Lots of line movement in Division I-AA.
A few more...
Wisconsin -6 over Northwestern: Defense will be the difference here. Wisconsin can play it, NW can't.
Iowa/Purdue over 51.5 and Iowa +4.5: The lowest point total in a Purdue game this year has been 55. Iowa has scored 35 or more 3 times and must be licking their chops to go against the Boilermaker defense, ranked 110th in the nation. The Hawkeyes still have a realistic shot at sharing the title if they can win a few key games and get some help from either Penn St. or Michigan against Ohio St. Joe "The Gardener" Tiller has somehow managed to blow Purdont's chances to win the league already. They had a great schedule (no Michigan or Ohio St.) and still messed it up. I'll take the Hawkeyes plus the points in a shootout.
Army/Central Michigan under 51: Army's defense is so-so and their offense is bad. CMU is one of the surprises of the MAC but may be looking ahead to the rest of the league schedule. I have this one lined at 43.
If you were able to get W. Kentucky at +7 you might want to look at buying some back with Illinois St. -2. That's a pretty big middle opportunity. Same thing with Furman. If you grabbed the +6.5 you can now play the other side with Appalachian St. -1.5. Lots of line movement in Division I-AA.
EMU +24 over Toledo: In what should be a high-scoring affair, I'll take 24 points and wait for the backdoor cover.
Results: 7-5 (half point loss in Purdue/Iowa game and late cover by Toledo kept it from being very good), +1.5 units
YTD: 34-26, +5.3 units
YTD: 34-26, +5.3 units
