Tuesday, October 11 Plays
- Thread starter 60 SEC ASSASSIN
- Start date
I can't figure out what to do here. I am sitting on a $50 ticket with 60-1 odds on the Astros to win the whole thing. Would you guys hedge now with the cards series price at -190 or should I continue to let it ride? If you think I should hedge some now, how much would you hedge? Thanks in advance for any help.
Gotta be on the opposite side tonight 60. Got the grandaughters coming over, but dressed in their black & white. The little monkeys will be shaking their pon poms for the good guys tonight. May even have to put up my White Sox avatar for this!! Money line too steep for me, playing the RL even. If your boys get beat tonight hope it's by at least 2. Why make us both on the losing side :mj07: GL
Sorry for being on the opposite sides tonight T4W. I'm telling you, I think we found our good luck charms in your grandaughters :clap: Best of luck tomorrow. I may be looking to be on the Sox depending on what the line is. Must win situation for them.
UPDATED RECORD: 9-4-0 (+9.43 UNITS) :yup
See everyone tomorrow :yup
UPDATED RECORD: 9-4-0 (+9.43 UNITS) :yup
See everyone tomorrow :yup
Hey 60,
Here is my 2 cents about your 60 to 1 future on Houston...should you hedge - in my opinion - YES - always hedge - key is to take the profits when you can and eliminate risk, put yourself in a situation where you can't lose. 60 to 1 for houston is a nice spot to be in...
Now you were smart enough to put up $50 to win $3,000 on the Astros - now the play is to be smart and make sure you at least don't come out down -$50 if the Cardinals win this series...
Now how much you hedge - that's up to you...right now the Cardinals series price is around -200...so here is one scenario you can do:
You have $50 risked to win $3,000
Put a risk of $200 to win $100 on the Cardinals -200...if Cards win, you win $100, lose $50, net +$50 profit - not bad
If you Astros win, you lose $200 hedge, but still have the Astros future alive to win $3,000...
Now if Astros win, this mean they are in the World Series - and let's say that they would be no worse than a -200 to win the series, at least that is a good estimate, since in my opinion the Cardinals are the best team left right now, so i think a series w/ Astros vs. Angels or White Sox the Astros would be around a -200 max...let's go w/ that number here...
So you can still win $3,000 - you lost $200 already because Astros won last series (lost Cardinal hedge) so really you still have alot of hedge profit potential left...
Now if this is me, i take on as little risk as possible, and guarantee myself a nice payday for my risk of taking Astros 60 to 1...i would put a $1,200 to win $600 hedge play on whoever it is from the AL to win the series - again maybe the odds are lower (better for you) - i'm thinking worst case Astros opponent in WS would be -200 for series...
So now if the AL wins the world series, you lost your previous $200 hedge play, you lose your $50 60-1 Astros future to win it all parlay, but you win $600 on your hedge play - and you net $350 overall - that's like a 7 to 1 payout on your original stake, and you had no risk of losing!
Now you obviously feel strong about Houston so let's say Houston goes on and wins the whole thing, well you won your 60 to 1 $3,000 play, you lost your $200 hedge play on cardinals, and you lost your $1,200 hedge play on the AL - well you still netted a $1,600 profit - which is 32 times your original $50 risk amount - again you were in a no lose situation!
You could either win $350 or win $1,600 using this previous scenario...this is just one example - my point is that it probably is a longshot for Astros to win it all - so why not take advantage of free money!
I do this year in and year out w/ futures...heck i know it's early but i got a 50 to 1 future on the Bengals to win it all - and all i need is them to make the playoffs - i can hedge against starting in their first game - once you get those 30/1, 40/1, 50/1 or higher payouts there is so much room to hedge...
now one thing to consider is i guess you must have the money to put in your hedge bets...but remember you are in a no lose situation...
Also, feel free to hedge even more this series - personally i feel the Cardinals will win this series so maybe you want to hedge $500 to win $250 or something - just go over more scenarios - do the math - i always play out about 5 scenarios and weigh my risk/reward ratio
I hope you take my advice and hedge - I have taught several people this lesson - and they have thanked me over and over...just last week i used hedging to guarantee a nice profit - last week i put in a 3 team moneyline MLB parlay w/ this:
10/6 braves RL -1.5 +170
10/7 white sox +145
10/7 angels +200
Now this was 18.85 to 1 odds, I risked $100 to win $1,885 and games were at different times so i could take advantage of hedging if games came though - after even winning the first game i was in a no lose situation - so after the Braves came in on 10/6 and covered the run line, i put in a hedge play on the Red Sox -165 Risking $330 to win $200 - this way i guaranteed at least $100 profit...now i lost this hedge, which meant my final play on angels +200 was alive - so i then hedged Yankees -240 (unfortunately line rose for the game) i knew i was out -$330 so had to make up for that i put in a $1,200 to win $500 on yankees -240, now yankees lost, so i lost -$1,530 on hedge plays, but won the +$1,885 on the parlay, netting +$355 - hey that was fine w/ me!
Sometimes i will wait to see if the first 2 come in and only hedge last game...but remember if Yankees would have won, would have won $500 on the Yankee play, lost the -$100 original parlay, and already lost -$330 on previous hedge, but would still have netted $70 profit!
So i stood to gain $70 or $355 - see most people want to go for the glory, and don't think about grinding out small profits w/ hedges...i use these techniques successfully quite often....now i still make plenty of straight wagers but i will do this hedging stuff when i have the time...again there is no perfect answer - but i say put yourself in a no lose situation if you have the opportunity to do so...sure it's fun to sit, wait, and hope for the big payoff - but there is probably a reason for the big odds - you are probably a longshot to hit the play - so hedge off taking some plays that are more likely to hit...
Hope this helps - gotta run - i have a few nice looking NFL futures right now that all i need is a playoff spot, and boom can hedge off for a nice payout...take it easy and best of luck to you whatever you decide to do, but do some scenarios and please make sure you at least hedge to win back the $50 you put up for the future wager - put yourself in position to make sure you at least break even, but better yet - make some guarantee profit - more people should use futures for hedging purposes
Take care...have a good one
Here is my 2 cents about your 60 to 1 future on Houston...should you hedge - in my opinion - YES - always hedge - key is to take the profits when you can and eliminate risk, put yourself in a situation where you can't lose. 60 to 1 for houston is a nice spot to be in...
Now you were smart enough to put up $50 to win $3,000 on the Astros - now the play is to be smart and make sure you at least don't come out down -$50 if the Cardinals win this series...
Now how much you hedge - that's up to you...right now the Cardinals series price is around -200...so here is one scenario you can do:
You have $50 risked to win $3,000
Put a risk of $200 to win $100 on the Cardinals -200...if Cards win, you win $100, lose $50, net +$50 profit - not bad
If you Astros win, you lose $200 hedge, but still have the Astros future alive to win $3,000...
Now if Astros win, this mean they are in the World Series - and let's say that they would be no worse than a -200 to win the series, at least that is a good estimate, since in my opinion the Cardinals are the best team left right now, so i think a series w/ Astros vs. Angels or White Sox the Astros would be around a -200 max...let's go w/ that number here...
So you can still win $3,000 - you lost $200 already because Astros won last series (lost Cardinal hedge) so really you still have alot of hedge profit potential left...
Now if this is me, i take on as little risk as possible, and guarantee myself a nice payday for my risk of taking Astros 60 to 1...i would put a $1,200 to win $600 hedge play on whoever it is from the AL to win the series - again maybe the odds are lower (better for you) - i'm thinking worst case Astros opponent in WS would be -200 for series...
So now if the AL wins the world series, you lost your previous $200 hedge play, you lose your $50 60-1 Astros future to win it all parlay, but you win $600 on your hedge play - and you net $350 overall - that's like a 7 to 1 payout on your original stake, and you had no risk of losing!
Now you obviously feel strong about Houston so let's say Houston goes on and wins the whole thing, well you won your 60 to 1 $3,000 play, you lost your $200 hedge play on cardinals, and you lost your $1,200 hedge play on the AL - well you still netted a $1,600 profit - which is 32 times your original $50 risk amount - again you were in a no lose situation!
You could either win $350 or win $1,600 using this previous scenario...this is just one example - my point is that it probably is a longshot for Astros to win it all - so why not take advantage of free money!
I do this year in and year out w/ futures...heck i know it's early but i got a 50 to 1 future on the Bengals to win it all - and all i need is them to make the playoffs - i can hedge against starting in their first game - once you get those 30/1, 40/1, 50/1 or higher payouts there is so much room to hedge...
now one thing to consider is i guess you must have the money to put in your hedge bets...but remember you are in a no lose situation...
Also, feel free to hedge even more this series - personally i feel the Cardinals will win this series so maybe you want to hedge $500 to win $250 or something - just go over more scenarios - do the math - i always play out about 5 scenarios and weigh my risk/reward ratio
I hope you take my advice and hedge - I have taught several people this lesson - and they have thanked me over and over...just last week i used hedging to guarantee a nice profit - last week i put in a 3 team moneyline MLB parlay w/ this:
10/6 braves RL -1.5 +170
10/7 white sox +145
10/7 angels +200
Now this was 18.85 to 1 odds, I risked $100 to win $1,885 and games were at different times so i could take advantage of hedging if games came though - after even winning the first game i was in a no lose situation - so after the Braves came in on 10/6 and covered the run line, i put in a hedge play on the Red Sox -165 Risking $330 to win $200 - this way i guaranteed at least $100 profit...now i lost this hedge, which meant my final play on angels +200 was alive - so i then hedged Yankees -240 (unfortunately line rose for the game) i knew i was out -$330 so had to make up for that i put in a $1,200 to win $500 on yankees -240, now yankees lost, so i lost -$1,530 on hedge plays, but won the +$1,885 on the parlay, netting +$355 - hey that was fine w/ me!
Sometimes i will wait to see if the first 2 come in and only hedge last game...but remember if Yankees would have won, would have won $500 on the Yankee play, lost the -$100 original parlay, and already lost -$330 on previous hedge, but would still have netted $70 profit!
So i stood to gain $70 or $355 - see most people want to go for the glory, and don't think about grinding out small profits w/ hedges...i use these techniques successfully quite often....now i still make plenty of straight wagers but i will do this hedging stuff when i have the time...again there is no perfect answer - but i say put yourself in a no lose situation if you have the opportunity to do so...sure it's fun to sit, wait, and hope for the big payoff - but there is probably a reason for the big odds - you are probably a longshot to hit the play - so hedge off taking some plays that are more likely to hit...
Hope this helps - gotta run - i have a few nice looking NFL futures right now that all i need is a playoff spot, and boom can hedge off for a nice payout...take it easy and best of luck to you whatever you decide to do, but do some scenarios and please make sure you at least hedge to win back the $50 you put up for the future wager - put yourself in position to make sure you at least break even, but better yet - make some guarantee profit - more people should use futures for hedging purposes
Take care...have a good one
Thanks for the advice Save It. It was much appreciated. I got these 60-1 odds at the all star break. I figured the Stros would beat the Braves last series so I just let it ride. Now against the Cards its a different story. I think I will take your advice and hedge a little. Although I think that the Astros have the better pitching, the Cards have a huge advantage with the bats. So the smart decision would be to hedge.
Another option I just came up with while I was reading your advice was if I think the Astros can pick up 1 of the first 2 games, the series line should drop some. At that point, I can hedge my play. But then again I can get screwed if the Cards win both I'll be paying a much higher price to hedge.
Decisions..decisions...I'll let you know what I finally decide sometime today. Thanks again Save
Another option I just came up with while I was reading your advice was if I think the Astros can pick up 1 of the first 2 games, the series line should drop some. At that point, I can hedge my play. But then again I can get screwed if the Cards win both I'll be paying a much higher price to hedge.
Decisions..decisions...I'll let you know what I finally decide sometime today. Thanks again Save
Well Save...I decided to just lay 190 to win 100. I am basically hoping that the Astros can steal one of the first two in St Louis. If that's the case, then I will lay whatever for another unit at that point.
Thanks again for you help & advice Save. GL with your Bengals future as well. My longshot future for the nfl this season is the Chiefs at 28-1. :yup
Thanks again for you help & advice Save. GL with your Bengals future as well. My longshot future for the nfl this season is the Chiefs at 28-1. :yup
