Playoffs Round 2

[BleedDodgerBlue]

yest 0-1 -6.02
playoff futures divisional 2-1 +6.85 units
playoffs 10-5 +15.13 units

props to the angels. they beat the bombers and the patchwork they displayed all year showed its holes.

matsui, a-rod and sheff should all be ashamed of themselves. they all had horrible series and were the reason they lost. again props to the halos.

Angels +170 x 3

Astros + 172 x 3

I can hedge out of these later if need be hopefully. The Angels shouldn't be +170. I know they are factoring in a probable loss tomorrow after all the travel, but I'm not even sold on that yet. Like I said, just put these in and hopefully will have some room to wiggle. I actually think the white sox win, but +170 is too good to pass up right now

anyway, gl

 

[gman2]

very nice job in the playoffs to this point. normally, we tend to agree on a lot of games/series/etc because we seem to have the same capping approach. surprised we disagree on the angels, although i can see where youre coming from with the value. but i think chicago is a much more complete team and their starting pitching is where the sox have a huge advantage. gl dodger. ps - will be pulling for the stros in that series, although im a bit bitter from last year when i had a 75/1 ticket on them to win the WS and they lost the series against st.louis when they were in complete control after game 5. was plannig on starting to hedge once they got past stlouis. never happened, lol. it would be fitting if they got it done this time around

 

[RexBudler]

love em in the series and in game 1. I will wait on the odds in game 1 because EVERYONE will be betting the Wsox cuz the Angels must be tired :mj07: The Angels feed off of adrenaline. gl to you BDB

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

very nice job in the playoffs to this point. normally, we tend to agree on a lot of games/series/etc because we seem to have the same capping approach. surprised we disagree on the angels, although i can see where youre coming from with the value. but i think chicago is a much more complete team and their starting pitching is where the sox have a huge advantage. gl dodger. ps - will be pulling for the stros in that series, although im a bit bitter from last year when i had a 75/1 ticket on them to win the WS and they lost the series against st.louis when they were in complete control after game 5. was plannig on starting to hedge once they got past stlouis. never happened, lol. it would be fitting if they got it done this time around

gman, I actually wrote I think the White Sox will win the series. Not that Anaheim can't. I just thought +170 was great value. Hell, I can freeroll it now with CWS -165. Line dropped 15 cents since opening. But I won't.

I just think i will have more wiggle room with both + money.

gl

and rex, congrats on the angels. I just think there is something special about the CWS team this year. Either way, they are the real team in LA.
They've got heart.

edit to down to -155 now. What a debacle....pinnacle put up a really stupid line. gonna keep going lower.

 

[gjn23]

if you think the white sox will win then why is +170 on the angels a great value?????? in your scenario +170 pays as much as +130 or +230....zero?

"value" is the biggest misconception is sports betting, especially horse racing and baseball...in those sports the only value is the winning ticket

 

[gjn23]

if you think the white sox will win then why is +170 on the angels a great value?????? in your scenario +170 pays as much as +130 or +230....zero?

"value" is the biggest misconception is sports betting, especially horse racing and baseball...in those sports the only value is the winning ticket

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

if you think the white sox will win then why is +170 on the angels a great value?????? in your scenario +170 pays as much as +130 or +230....zero?

"value" is the biggest misconception is sports betting, especially horse racing and baseball...in those sports the only value is the winning ticket

value is NOT the biggest misconception in futures wagering. I do NOT think that the White Sox will sweep the Angels. I think it will be a hard fought series going 6 or most likely 7 games. The VALUE will be where I can hedge and do things to lock up a profit.

although I agree with you in value in one single game is silly to the extent that your ticket wins or loses, but in futures, hedging and locking in profit is everything. So I stand by my assertion +170 was value. Its down to +150 so others saw value in it as well i guess

gl

 

[gjn23]

for me hedging is only worthwhile if your future risk is a large payback (like 10 or 20 to 1) not 1.7 to 1

I believe that those wagering on the angels right away really think that the angels will win, thus taking the +170.....my opinion would be if you like the angels to win the series wait until after game one (where i think they lose) and get even more than the 150-170 on the series price

 

[Sun Tzu]

A bit surpised at the Astro price. Yes the hitting as bad and Clemens hasnt been right, but they are damn tough at home, have a very solid pen, and you gotta think Pettite/Oswalt take at least one in St Louis. Winning two there a couple of weeks ago is a huge boost mentally.

My guess is worst case stros are looking at needing to win game 6 or 7 in st louis with oswalt and clemens going. Gotta like those chances.

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

for me hedging is only worthwhile if your future risk is a large payback (like 10 or 20 to 1) not 1.7 to 1

I believe that those wagering on the angels right away really think that the angels will win, thus taking the +170.....my opinion would be if you like the angels to win the series wait until after game one (where i think they lose) and get even more than the 150-170 on the series price

its all about making money. anyone who says different is an idiot. i grind a living at poker, grind extra money at sports. i don't ever go for the big kill probably cause i'd never hit it.

i put 1k if you must know at +170
angels split in Chicago which is a definite possiblity, and then get game 3 at home and win that, another plausibility, CWS goes to a +140 or so adjusted series price.

i'll take a guaranteed 400 or 700 for letting pinny hold some money for a week. and if i'm wrong well than that's what sports betting is.

no its not a huge sum of money, but if you add it all up over time, it all adds up.

SUN TZU
really like the stros. think clemens gets one more chance to dance. pitching is a wash in the series with real slight edge to the houston bullpen. Bats obviously favor st. louis, but probably not as much as everyone thinks. Would love to see Bags and Biggio get one shot on center stage.

gl

 

[s_dooley24]

A bit surpised at the Astro price. Yes the hitting as bad and Clemens hasnt been right, but they are damn tough at home, have a very solid pen, and you gotta think Pettite/Oswalt take at least one in St Louis. Winning two there a couple of weeks ago is a huge boost mentally.

My guess is worst case stros are looking at needing to win game 6 or 7 in st louis with oswalt and clemens going. Gotta like those chances.

Agree completely with this statement

 

[baseball boy]

gl dodger

 

[Agent 0659]

Who do you like tonight BDB?

 

[sebadoh]

I like the angels tonight as well.. I agree that it's a great value, and def worth taking.. either team could win.. i'll take the +175 :clap:

 

[shamrock]

bdb, your play makes perfect sense to me, your doing things the right way. Grinding a living in sports is difficult business, your making logical decisions to me, don't let the hater under your skin.

I would only disagree , that Angels will have considerable travel and lack of sleep by 8 p.m. tonight. Nice price on Anaheim, I'm still rolling this Series around in my head. does Anaheim still have realistic chance without colon??

 

[pharlap]

"value" is the biggest misconception is sports betting, especially horse racing and baseball...in those sports the only value is the winning ticket

I thought value in the odds on offer was what I was supposed to be looking for.

I knew I'd been doing something wrong.

 

[lewehands]

I'm with ya blue. Hey check out my post and tell me what you think. "white sox +110 for the series"