College Football Picks (10/13-10/15) YTD: 34-26, +5.3 units

BGFalcon

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North Texas PK over Florida International: North Texas has made a total of 4 trips to the red zone this year. Florida International gave up 66 points to Arkansas St. That shows you how bad these teams are. But, North Texas is definitely better. They will finally be able to run the ball since FIU has shown no interest in stopping anyone except Florida A&M. FIU got their win and will be satisfied until they take on FAU in the season finale. NT needs this win badly. The winner of the Sun Belt will probably have two losses so they are not out of it yet. Look for Cobbs and Thomas to finally get untracked and for Meager to be able to hit a few open receivers (stop laughing!). It won't be pretty but NT wins by 10.
 

BGFalcon

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Toledo -19.5 over Ball St.: Testicle Tech shocked the MAC by actually winning a game. They will pay for that this week. Toledo Coach Amstutz will now be able to use that and the fact that Ball St. only lost to BG by 9 in their first home to keep his players focused. Toledo is much better defensively than BG so I'm going to lay the big road chalk. The Rockets tend to beat the piss out of bad teams and Ball is definitely bad. They have four talented running backs that will get to share the load the entire game. This one is going to get messy--2 unit play.
 

gman2

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BGFalcon said:
The Rockets tend to beat the piss out of bad teams and Ball is definitely bad.

im in no hurry to play ball state, but im not sure if theres another team in the conference that gives toledo as much trouble as ball freakin state. its crazy.

toledo lost outright in 1997 in muncie
toledo won 23-10 in 1999
toledo lost outright there in 2001
toledo lost outright there (and were smashed) 38-14 in 2003.

whats a huge plus for toledo is that bsu is coming off that 5OT game. ball state is not a real deep team and you gotta wonder what they have in the tank.

theres something really weird about ball state. they play incredibly hard at home, as these upsets certainly show. and then you think back last year when they took northern illinois to overtime as a 20-point underdog.

is ball state the worst team in the mac? without question. but these idiots really get up for toledo and the rockets have been abysmal there lately.
 

HoopsGuru

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bg any insight on the div 1-aa games this week? those picks were money again last week. went 3-0 and missed out on the midweek game. good luck!
 

BGFalcon

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I should have some 1-AA games later on Wednesday or early Thursday. Some of those lines moved a bunch last week. We'll see what happens this week.
 

spang

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I could actually use Ball St this week, but I'd need 21 points. They have got their boys back from the textbook tango caper, and I''m sure that they are viewing this game as a great chance at redemption.

Also thinking that the Redhawks paste the Zips good this week.. Akron has not been solid at all since the 3rd quarter of the NIU tilt.

Good luck falcon
 

BGFalcon

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Ivy League play

Ivy League play

Penn -13.5 over Columbia: I'm playing with fire laying the road chalk but this is Columbia. They have had 32 net yards rushing the last two games and average 51 for the year. They also have turned the ball over 10 times. Penn is 7th nationally in total defense and gives up 58 rushing yards per game. As long as they can eliminate the big play, Columbia will struggle to score. Penn also are scores 36 per game. Pat McDermott is a good Ivy League QB and will lead the Quakers to comfortable road win.
 

BGFalcon

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Towson +11 over Liberty: This has to be a mistake. Liberty (1-5) is not good. They give up 33 points per game while scoring only 7.5. Granted, they have played some decent teams but no way they should be giving 11 points. Towson (4-2) is the better team. An offense that can put points on the board with a defense that is a little below average although some of that is because they don't exactly control the ball on offense. I have this one lined at Towson -17. This is a two unit play.
 

BGFalcon

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I placed the bet at +11 for the limit when the lines first posted and got a confirmation. I logged on just a minute ago and the bet was cancelled. I'm not recommending Towson at -11 just yet. I need to research a little more. I'll have the rest of my I-AA picks up within an hour.
 

BGFalcon

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Division I-AA

Division I-AA

S. Illinois +3 over Illinois St.: SIU is ranked #1 in Division I-AA and for good reason. They have a nice balanced offense, their defense is very strong against the run and their special teams are solid. Illinois St. is also a pretty good team that has lost two close games in a row. They have not shown an ability to beat the better teams on their schedule and have no business giving points to SIU. I'll take the #1 team as a home dog for 1 unit.

Delaware PK over Richmond: I don't think Delaware will get caught looking ahead to next week's matchup with James Madison since they have lost two tough ones in a row. That is why we are getting value here. This game got moved to Richmond because Delaware's field is a mess. It won't matter, Hens by a TD.

Furman -1.5 over The Citadel: Furman has too many weapons for The Citadel. They have a good QB in Martin and two solid running backs. Defensively, they should be able to hold their own against a team that has struggled offensively most of the year, although its been against a tough schedule. I have this lined at -12 so I don't mind laying less than a FG. 2 unit play.
 

BGFalcon

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Another one...

Another one...

Alcorn St. +15 over Texas Southern: Alcorn St. leads the league in rushing, Texas Southern is last in rush D. I'll take the 15 points in what should be an ugly, turnover filled game.

I also like Morehead St. -24 against Austin Peay but I'm struggling with laying that many points. I can't see AP scoring more than 10 in this game but the backdoor cover concerns me. The Governors are really bad, though. I have it lined at -33 so I'll go with my numbers and make it official: Morehead St. -24 over Austin Peay.
 

BGFalcon

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Miami (OH) -13 over Akron: Redahawks can't lose any more and the schedule sets up nicely for them the rest of the way. Akron will not be able to stop the Miami offense and will struggle playing catch up.

Navy -12 over Kent St.: I don't see Kent having the ball much this afternoon as Navy should be able to rush for around 300 yards.

Sparty +7 (-113) over Ohio St.: Buckeye defense is tough, offense is bad. They are very good in Columbus but Sparty can score. I don't know that the Buckeyes are good enough offensively to cover a touchdown against a good Michigan St. team.
 

BGFalcon

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Two more...

Two more...

Notre Dame/USC under 70.5: Weis knows he must slow the game down to have a chance and he is very good at doing that. I'm still not sold on the Irish but I think they will hang around for a while. How about 42-28?

UConn -7 over Cincinnati: The Huskies haven't played a very strong schedule but Cincinnati is bad. How do you give up 38 points to Shitsburgh? Huskies roll.
 

BGFalcon

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We needed every bit of that for the cover. The Michigan St. game really ticked me off. Besides the mistakes in the kicking game, Sparty should have taken a safety when they had to punt the ball out of their endzone. That would have made the score 30-24 instead of 28-24 but they would not have given OSU a short field. Either way they needed a touchdown. With Tressel's conservative nature, no way the Buckeyes score in that situation and we get the cover.
 
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