plays & angles for 10/13-10/15....

A

AR182

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here is something interesting that i just read....

teams who rushed for double the amount of yards than their opponents were 21-6 ats last week & are 102-36 ats for the season....that's very impressive !!.....

teams that i think can be double rushers this week are.....

ark. st.....s.fla.....g.tech......texas....miami fl....navy....col.st.....a.f.....missouri.......n.ill...wash.st.....calif.....tcu....boise st....fresno st....

agree ?...any others ?

here is another one.....

teams who were dogs of +10 or more & gained more ground yardage than their opponents were 6-1 ats last week & are 24-3 ats for the season...

double digit dogs that may gain more rushing yardage could be......

indiana.....kan.st....

any others ?


i was ready to take miss. on saturday because i thought that bama might come in flat with their win over fla.in their last game & playing tenn. next week.....but i just read this....

all 15 of mike shula's wins at bama were by double digits...so if you don't think miss. will win this game then it doesn't make sense to play miss.

another interesting thing that i read is....

when lsu allows 21 or more points as a home favorite, they are 2-33 ats & that includes 0-15 ats into revenge, 0-15 ats off a su win & 0-16 off a double digit win.....

can fla.score 21 points or more off lsu's defense...az.st. & tenn. did....but that was on the road...fla. is averaging 27 points per game at lsu in the last 12 times they were there.

good luck...
 
T

taoist

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AR182 said:
here is another one.....

teams who were dogs of +10 or more & gained more ground yardage than their opponents were 6-1 ats last week & are 24-3 ats for the season...

double digit dogs that may gain more rushing yardage could be......

indiana.....kan.st....

any others ?
Click to expand...


...what about Wake and Memphis? :scared Both are DD dogs and should outrush their opponents.... :)


...as a side note, I still lean to Ole Piss + the points, as this is a bad spot for Alabama and we still don't know how much losing Prothro will hinder the offensive passing game. I'll wait and see if Joe Q drives the line over 2 TD's....


I will probably pass on the LSU/FL game....


Great stuff, as always, AR!!! :)
 
A

AR182

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taoist....

i think bc will out rush wake.....

stat fox estimated that bc will gain 189 rushing yards & wake gaining 168 yards...

they agree with you on memphis (estimate 227 yds.) out rushiing houston (estimate 203 rushing yards)..........

i'm also leaning to miss...but waiting to see if the line rises....

thanks for the nice words....


86-61-1 +14.90*

in a little slump & not hitting my larger bets....


3*u 55 utep/tulane......

jumped on this early.....both teams are living off past reputations as offensive machines....they're not as evidenced by both teams combining to go under in 6 of 7 games so far this year....

tulane's offense is averaging 4.1 yds. per play against teams that allow an average of 5.7 yds. per play.....utep's defense allows 4.9 yppl to teams that average about 5.6 yppl on offense...

on the other side.....utep's offense averages about 5.7 yppl with jordan at qb vs. opponents that allow an average 5.8 yppl.....tulane's defense allows an average of 4.4 yppl vs.teams that average about 4.7 yppl on offense....

here is an angle that might interest some....

play under - all teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (UTEP) - turnover prone team - committing 2.5 or more turnovers/game, after a game where they forced no turnovers.
last 10 seasons the ats record is 25-5 (83.3%).

i don't see this total going over 50...

good luck.
 
T

taoist

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...they may lose...and they may not cover, but wake will out rush bc. don't get me sideways, i have no money on the game...but was leaning to wake...they cashed for me big last week and fl st is equal or better than bc.... i just have a prob with wake going to bc on that damn turf. ;)


...you know i always check out your chit, brother. :)

...and i'll probably make that a no play because of our brief discussion and what I perceive to be your lean.... :)


...kick your book in the balls this week, AR!!! ...and keep posting those awesome angles, bud. :clap:


p.s. What do you think about Joe pa stating that he would like to see a playoff??? ;)
 
A

AR182

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taoist,

i agree with joe pa.....think there should be a playoff system of some kind.....

i like bc, in general.....i think they have a very underated coach....

i have a slight lean on b.c this week....but haven't made up my mind yet...

i had a nice size bet last week on b.c...so i watched the whole game...it was a pretty brutal game with hitting even after the whistle & many cheap hits.... b.c. has virginia tech as an opponent in their next game...so they may be a little flat here....but i read a few trends & angles that go against wake this week...like....

since 1996 road teams who played at fla. st the week before are 2-12 ats, including 0-8 ats when the opponent is .400 or better..

good luck.
 
T

taoist

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AR182 said:
...it was a pretty brutal game with hitting even after the whistle & many cheap hits.... b.c. has virginia tech as an opponent in their next game...so they may be a little flat here....but i read a few trends & angles that go against wake this week...like....

since 1996 road teams who played at fla. st the week before are 2-12 ats, including 0-8 ats when the opponent is .400 or better..

good luck.
Click to expand...


...didn't watch the game, but heard the same thing. (that cheap shot was crap...and worth more than "a one week suspension")

...agree about the look-ahead to va tech b/c THAT is the season, right? what's wake? nothing. just another below avg team in a list of "the new best conference" ACC conf games. who's the coaching staff preparing for tonight...tomorrow night? ;)


...and the angle? ...my thoughts are that that's beacuse fl st has beaten up on folks in the past. how much can you beat up on wake at this point?!?!?!?

...guess I will pass. LMAO! :)


p.s. Joe pa got it right. :mj14:
 
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T

taoist

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...as I listen to arky st/ulala more than i watch ncst/clem, i have to ask....



...would you prefer an 8, 12, or 16 team playoff? I prefer the 16 team format. Take all conf champs (after requiring ALL teams (yes, ND) to join a conf...and requiring all conf to have a champ game)...and let the polls and puters pick the rest...run the playoffs through the month of december (4 weeks) and play the NC on New Year's Day...the way IT SHOULD BE! ;)




:)
 
A

AR182

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i haven't really thought about a format......

i don't necessarily like all the conference leaders playing for the championship because (correct me if i'm wrong) not all conferences have a championship game.....

as i'm typing this i think i like the top 8....

but i have to give it more thought.
 
A

AR182

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a few for saturday.....

4*a.f.-13.......

unlv's juco qb will be making his first start on the road in this game & in 2 games so far he has thrown for a little over 300 yards with 2 tds & 4 ints.....i read that deberry still thinks a.f. can make a bowl game this year so i think they will be focused & ii think a.f. takes out their frustrations in this game after losing 4 straight.

the rest are for 2*

vandy+17(120)....

georgia beat vandy last year by a 33-3 score & have won 10 straight in this series.with georgia coming off of a big revenge win over tenn, i think they come in a little flat for this game.....also something that i read...5-0 teams (georgia) are 50-83-1 ats(37.5%) as conference favorites of 7 points or more in game 6...

col +18....

texas has finally lifted that monkey off their back by soundly beating okla.last week...they have a big intrastate rival texas tech next week.....col. is a well balanced team with a sr. qb & won't back down in this game...

cin.+8.....

conn. has beaten buffalo,liberty, army, & syracuse( 3 of those games were at home) who have combined to win a total of 1 game. now they are starting a freshman qb for the first time on the road vs. cin.who has played a much stroner schedule....i like cin. in this spot.....

oregon-16.....

ou is 10-0 ats at home vs..333 or less opposition in it's last 10 times & is 19-1 ats in it's last 20 pac 10 wins....wash.has 2 wins (san jose st.& idaho) in it's last 14 games & is 4-38-1 ats in it's last 43 conference losses

n. mexico+7.....

over the last 5 years, from game 7 on, n.mex. is 23-6 ats, including 16-1 ats as a dog or favorite of less than 3 points....

good luck...
 
trolln4walii

trolln4walii

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Have a great week AR. Think you're on the right side with that total tonight. Think I'll throw the under in with UTEP in a small tease. Love to see Indy outrush the Hawkeyes and improve that ATS trend to to 25-3 ;)
 
A

AR182

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thanks guys...appreciate it.


can't believe i was so way off on last night's game.....makes me wonder...

good luck today...
 
A

AR182

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thanks kneifl..appreciate it.


adding all for 2*.....

baylor+3
u52 n. tex/fla. intl.
hawaii-19
fla. atl.+4
miamio-13
wash.st+5
col.st.-2
rice+8(120)
w.virg+8(120)
w.virg.+8(120)
ark.+8(120)
e.car.+3(120)


good luck.
 
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