Hey guys,
Well I wrapped up a nice day & weekend yesterday - up $1,390 for the day - and looking to keep things rolling here tonight.
I took a bit of time off from posting from April though mid-September, and have enjoyed posting again - having another outstanding year and hope I've been able to help some of you out - I went ahead and looked back and will continue to update my posted record here at madjacks - as you can see had a great Jan, Feb, March - all plays posted way back then - i like to keep my record up to date, and since posting again starting a few weeks ago haven't updated it - so now i went back, updated from all my posts and here is where i stand for my Madjack posted plays in 2005:
2005 record by Sport:
NFL: 9-4 = +$3,540
NCAA Football: 6-4 = +$2,050
NCAA Basketball: 39-31 = +$2,225
NBA: 8-7 = +$320
MLB: 1-2 = -$300
2005 record by Month:
January Record: 25-17 +$4,000
February Record: 23-15 +$3,005
March Record: 6-8 -$1,760
September Record: 2-3 -$1,200
October Record: 7-5 +$3,790
Overall 2005 Record: 63-48 = 56.8% = +$7,835
As you can see - i like to keep close records so I know exactly where I stand - also helps those of you who try to follow those who do well - and would be great if more people posted their up to date records. Every play I make is made because I believe there is value in the play. I currently have a 56.8% winning percentage on plays posted here at MJ's based on all plays I made (yes this includes all plays - doesn't matter if it was a teaser, parlay, straight play, or moneyline wager). I think winning % is very important, however i do vary my wager amounts, and also i will take shots on moneyline plays i see to have value, and when playing some extreme underdogs on the moneyline, you can rack up a bunch of losses, and just win once to profit in the long run - but i still include those plays that have a lower % chance of hitting in my records...
Which brings us to tonights game - and one of those value big underdog moneyline plays! I simply cannot pass up taking the Rams tonight. Do I expect them to win the game tonight? No way. I expect the Colts to win - just as 100% of the world does. But eventually teams find a way to lose a game - no team is perfect, as evident by the fact that only the 1972 dolphins went the whole season undefeated. Teams lose and while we can never really understand why a big favorite loses to a huge dog, it can and does happen. Every year we see a few big upsets - especially in the NFL.
Now the Rams are a team that given the opportunity can score - and score in bunches - especially playing on turf. Sure Manning has played solid - and Edge has run the ball well - and we all know this defense is giving up only like 6 points a game, and we all know they haven't really played a real solid team (besides Jax) or really been tested...we do know that Manning was "supposed" to tear up a few of the teams they faced early on - but Colts are content doing whatever to win the game.
Any way you look at this game, you really can't make a logical example of why the Rams will win this game. But we all know sports betting can be entirely illogical at times - and sometimes going against the grain and taking a shot where there appears to be no hope is the way to go...
The Rams on the moneyline tonight are +750 - yes +750 - for ONE SINGLE TEAM TO JUST WIN A GAME...this isn't a crazy 7 team parlay or even multiple team dog parlay - this is for the Rams to show up for 60 minutes, maybe finally play some defense, or create a few turnovers - any way you look at it 7.5 to 1 odds for a single game w/ a team that has a high powered offense as the rams do is VALUE...
As i stated earlier every play i make is because I consider some VALUE - i try to go against the public most times, sometimes i am with the public - bottom line i do what I think is a value play. Probably 99% of the world has already chalked up this game to a Colts win - but i say let's see what the Rams have today.
One method of thinking i use when faced with decisions dealing with moneyline underdogs (do this often in MLB) - is ask yourself this one simple question related to the odds you are getting from the parlay:
The odds are 7.5 to 1 (+750)
If the underdog (Rams) played the favorite (Colts) in 8 independent games (i determine number of games as odds given 7.5 rounded up to nearest whole number) could the Rams reasonable be expected to win at least 1 of those games?
If you can answer yes to this question, then i conclude there is value in the play. I can honestly answer YES i believe the rams would beat the colts in this same scenario 1 in 8 times. What that means is you can go 1 win and 7 losses on this kind of play, and win +750 once, and lose -700 7 times, say you put $100 on each play, and you net $50 - which is a positive expected return on your investment.
One other thing that is intriguing about taking a team like the Rams at +750 on the moneyline is that it may give you some hedging opportunities on a halftime wager if the Rams can come out strong and go into the half with a lead. I have profited from doing this - and it is wonderful when this happens. For example - say the Rams go into the half up 24-10 - it could happen - now the colts are -14 point favorites for the game - now the 2nd half line would probably come out at close to the game line - probably around Colts -14, since people will chase their currently losing game wager - but what this does for you is creates a heck of a situation.
You already have Rams +750 monyline - let's say you have $100 to win $750. Now say this scenario occurs and rams lead 24-10 at half and 2nd half line is Colts -14. You can put yourself in a no lose situation. You could hedge off and take Colts -14 for the 2nd half - for say $330 to win $300 - and if Colts win you win $300, lose $100 ML play - net $200...not bad, now if Colts lose game, means they didn't cover 2nd half line, you lose $330, win $750 on ML play - you win $420...either way a nice return...
Bottom line is there is value in tonights line, may give an opportunity to hedge at the half...
More than likely Colts will take care of business and Rams will lose, but that's why they play the game! If the play goes down, no big deal just one play in a long run of many plays to come - but a good shot to get paid off if an upset occurs. Take the Rams - and let's hope for a nice upset on MNF!
Tonight's MNF Play:
Rams +750 moneyline
Risking $400 to win $3,000
By the way - does anybody happen to remember a certain MNF game last year - pitting the PATHETIC Miami Dolphins - who had 100% absolutely NO SHOT at winning the MNF game at home against the World Champion New England Patriots last season? Does anybody remember than Miami monyline was +1000 - yes 10 to 1 odds on Miami winning the game. Well, I remember it well - you know why I remember it well - because I used the EXACT same thought process on that game as this one here tonight! Last year I had a $500 to win $5,000 wager Miami moneyline in that game - and late in the game with New England leading Tom Brady threw a late Interception and Miami came back and won an improbable game 29-28- yes they won by 1 - and the Miami ML cashed - i knew a few who litterally unloaded most of their bankroll on NE moneyline - which could be had for -1300 - people thinking this was a "lock" and "easy win" - well those people learned real fast - nothing is ever a sure thing...nothing is worth laying that kind of chalk...and boy does it feel good when you hit a play like this - $5,000 on one play is a nice hit
So if you are thinking about betting tonights game - think about those lowly Miami Dolphins last year who were given 0% chance to win on MNF - but they did...use the thought process i just taught you and you will find yourself winning money on long shot underdogs - this does not just apply to the insane games like the +750, +1000 lines - you can use that thought process when evaluating baseball plays - like when you have a team up against a -300 or so pitcher - try to figure out if your +280 team can win 1 out of 3 games - look for the value.
Good luck to you all as always - looking forward to tonight's game!
Well I wrapped up a nice day & weekend yesterday - up $1,390 for the day - and looking to keep things rolling here tonight.
I took a bit of time off from posting from April though mid-September, and have enjoyed posting again - having another outstanding year and hope I've been able to help some of you out - I went ahead and looked back and will continue to update my posted record here at madjacks - as you can see had a great Jan, Feb, March - all plays posted way back then - i like to keep my record up to date, and since posting again starting a few weeks ago haven't updated it - so now i went back, updated from all my posts and here is where i stand for my Madjack posted plays in 2005:
2005 record by Sport:
NFL: 9-4 = +$3,540
NCAA Football: 6-4 = +$2,050
NCAA Basketball: 39-31 = +$2,225
NBA: 8-7 = +$320
MLB: 1-2 = -$300
2005 record by Month:
January Record: 25-17 +$4,000
February Record: 23-15 +$3,005
March Record: 6-8 -$1,760
September Record: 2-3 -$1,200
October Record: 7-5 +$3,790
Overall 2005 Record: 63-48 = 56.8% = +$7,835
As you can see - i like to keep close records so I know exactly where I stand - also helps those of you who try to follow those who do well - and would be great if more people posted their up to date records. Every play I make is made because I believe there is value in the play. I currently have a 56.8% winning percentage on plays posted here at MJ's based on all plays I made (yes this includes all plays - doesn't matter if it was a teaser, parlay, straight play, or moneyline wager). I think winning % is very important, however i do vary my wager amounts, and also i will take shots on moneyline plays i see to have value, and when playing some extreme underdogs on the moneyline, you can rack up a bunch of losses, and just win once to profit in the long run - but i still include those plays that have a lower % chance of hitting in my records...
Which brings us to tonights game - and one of those value big underdog moneyline plays! I simply cannot pass up taking the Rams tonight. Do I expect them to win the game tonight? No way. I expect the Colts to win - just as 100% of the world does. But eventually teams find a way to lose a game - no team is perfect, as evident by the fact that only the 1972 dolphins went the whole season undefeated. Teams lose and while we can never really understand why a big favorite loses to a huge dog, it can and does happen. Every year we see a few big upsets - especially in the NFL.
Now the Rams are a team that given the opportunity can score - and score in bunches - especially playing on turf. Sure Manning has played solid - and Edge has run the ball well - and we all know this defense is giving up only like 6 points a game, and we all know they haven't really played a real solid team (besides Jax) or really been tested...we do know that Manning was "supposed" to tear up a few of the teams they faced early on - but Colts are content doing whatever to win the game.
Any way you look at this game, you really can't make a logical example of why the Rams will win this game. But we all know sports betting can be entirely illogical at times - and sometimes going against the grain and taking a shot where there appears to be no hope is the way to go...
The Rams on the moneyline tonight are +750 - yes +750 - for ONE SINGLE TEAM TO JUST WIN A GAME...this isn't a crazy 7 team parlay or even multiple team dog parlay - this is for the Rams to show up for 60 minutes, maybe finally play some defense, or create a few turnovers - any way you look at it 7.5 to 1 odds for a single game w/ a team that has a high powered offense as the rams do is VALUE...
As i stated earlier every play i make is because I consider some VALUE - i try to go against the public most times, sometimes i am with the public - bottom line i do what I think is a value play. Probably 99% of the world has already chalked up this game to a Colts win - but i say let's see what the Rams have today.
One method of thinking i use when faced with decisions dealing with moneyline underdogs (do this often in MLB) - is ask yourself this one simple question related to the odds you are getting from the parlay:
The odds are 7.5 to 1 (+750)
If the underdog (Rams) played the favorite (Colts) in 8 independent games (i determine number of games as odds given 7.5 rounded up to nearest whole number) could the Rams reasonable be expected to win at least 1 of those games?
If you can answer yes to this question, then i conclude there is value in the play. I can honestly answer YES i believe the rams would beat the colts in this same scenario 1 in 8 times. What that means is you can go 1 win and 7 losses on this kind of play, and win +750 once, and lose -700 7 times, say you put $100 on each play, and you net $50 - which is a positive expected return on your investment.
One other thing that is intriguing about taking a team like the Rams at +750 on the moneyline is that it may give you some hedging opportunities on a halftime wager if the Rams can come out strong and go into the half with a lead. I have profited from doing this - and it is wonderful when this happens. For example - say the Rams go into the half up 24-10 - it could happen - now the colts are -14 point favorites for the game - now the 2nd half line would probably come out at close to the game line - probably around Colts -14, since people will chase their currently losing game wager - but what this does for you is creates a heck of a situation.
You already have Rams +750 monyline - let's say you have $100 to win $750. Now say this scenario occurs and rams lead 24-10 at half and 2nd half line is Colts -14. You can put yourself in a no lose situation. You could hedge off and take Colts -14 for the 2nd half - for say $330 to win $300 - and if Colts win you win $300, lose $100 ML play - net $200...not bad, now if Colts lose game, means they didn't cover 2nd half line, you lose $330, win $750 on ML play - you win $420...either way a nice return...
Bottom line is there is value in tonights line, may give an opportunity to hedge at the half...
More than likely Colts will take care of business and Rams will lose, but that's why they play the game! If the play goes down, no big deal just one play in a long run of many plays to come - but a good shot to get paid off if an upset occurs. Take the Rams - and let's hope for a nice upset on MNF!
Tonight's MNF Play:
Rams +750 moneyline
Risking $400 to win $3,000
By the way - does anybody happen to remember a certain MNF game last year - pitting the PATHETIC Miami Dolphins - who had 100% absolutely NO SHOT at winning the MNF game at home against the World Champion New England Patriots last season? Does anybody remember than Miami monyline was +1000 - yes 10 to 1 odds on Miami winning the game. Well, I remember it well - you know why I remember it well - because I used the EXACT same thought process on that game as this one here tonight! Last year I had a $500 to win $5,000 wager Miami moneyline in that game - and late in the game with New England leading Tom Brady threw a late Interception and Miami came back and won an improbable game 29-28- yes they won by 1 - and the Miami ML cashed - i knew a few who litterally unloaded most of their bankroll on NE moneyline - which could be had for -1300 - people thinking this was a "lock" and "easy win" - well those people learned real fast - nothing is ever a sure thing...nothing is worth laying that kind of chalk...and boy does it feel good when you hit a play like this - $5,000 on one play is a nice hit
So if you are thinking about betting tonights game - think about those lowly Miami Dolphins last year who were given 0% chance to win on MNF - but they did...use the thought process i just taught you and you will find yourself winning money on long shot underdogs - this does not just apply to the insane games like the +750, +1000 lines - you can use that thought process when evaluating baseball plays - like when you have a team up against a -300 or so pitcher - try to figure out if your +280 team can win 1 out of 3 games - look for the value.
Good luck to you all as always - looking forward to tonight's game!
This is the theory that has busted many a player! However I agree with you that its not a horrible play and there is some slight value. I just wouldnt waste my money. I would rather get 14 points and even money myself. GL!!
