plays & angles for 10/20-10/22....

[AR182]

here is something that i read that some might find interesting.....


byu upset col.st. last week & n. mexico the week before as dogs in both games......the angle....

college teams off b2b wins as a dog are 25-53 ats(32%) when going against an opponent with a won/loss % of less than .700.....

play against byu vs. n.d.

good luck.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

nice job so far this season, AR.

If the line was ND-12.5, I'd love BYU, but 19.5??

Defense showed a lot last week. I loved the Irish when it opened, thought about it and hated it, and now I'm just confused.

 

[AR182]

bbc,

thanks for the props...appreciate it...

and now I'm just confused.

i tend to be like that every week (lol).

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

. . . the older I get, the harder these cards look. It just ain't that easy.

 

[taoist]

bobby,

...think about that statement...it's not true. same for you, ar. :scared

...as you get older, the entire card might not get easier, but it really gets shorter, which is a little easier...at least in terms of time.

...bet you both eliminated miami LW right off the bat b/c they were -40+ ??? ...or you took the 70% chance at the ugly dog.

...eliminate any road favs that had not covered (or as buddy would say, worse case "loss/no cover") for the previous 2 weeks???

...any other 60-70% angles that told you play the "ugly side" or just don't play at all???


...it might not get easier, but at least it doesn't seem as much like "random luck" as it did long ago. LOL :mj07:

 

[MrChristo]

I've got a system here that I'm pretty sure I jotted down off you last year, AR...

Play on any greater than .332 team as dog up to -9 if they are facing an opponent who is off their first loss of the season. (At least 5-1)
25 year ATS record: 35-11 ATS, including 20-1 ATS if our team is not off a 10+ ATS win and does not have revenge.

Does that mean, as any dog, and/or upto -9 fav...or;
A dog only up to +9?

If it's a play for any dog,then Illinios +17 would be a play this week, yeah?

Keep up the good work. :toast:

 

[Irish]

Like the Domers at home to rebound from the USC game but that is a ton of chalk. The Irish should win the game but BYU has played tough in their last 2 games. ND should be able to run all day on BYU, and the line should give Brady tons of time to throw. ND should open a can on this team but they could come out a little flat after an emotional game last week. However, they could also come out like a caged animal using the USC loss to motivate them. After their last loss the Irish came out a little sluggish but then turned it on still only beating Washington by 19. Like the angle and if this was around 15 would hammer the Irish, but since I think they can man handle BYU there is no play for the cougars even with the chalk. Just my 2 cents... GL this weekend!

Cheers
Irish

 

[Blackman]

Best of luck AR -- I look forward to seeing these stats you come up with each week.

 

[ajoytoy]

gl on your plays this weekend AR...thanks for the info week in week out

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...

mr.christo...i'm sorry but i don't keep these angles from year to year...

taoist.....you're right...as you get older you tend to eliminate more games but it's still not easy....

100-69-4 +17.70*

tonight i'm playing.....

2*maryland+11....

we got a home dog that is playing well & seeking revenge...also think the week break may hurt vt's momentum....

here is an angle supporting this play....

teams playing after a bye week (1995-2005)...that is playing on the road & favored by more than 7.5 + points are...53-91-2 ats(36.8%)...

play...maryland v virginia tech & stanford vs. arizona st.

2*fla.int'l.+9
2*u 49(120)...got this very early.....

troy st. has been averaging 8 ppg over the last 2 games & is starting a true freshman for this game(he played a little last week).....also read that sun belt dogs are 8-2 ats this year.

good luck.

 

[Higgs]

Good luck AR. I was just wondering where you come up with these angles. Any help would be greatly appreciated.

 

[AR182]

thanks higgs....greatly appreciated....

i come up with these angles by surfing the net & by reading newsletters....

good luck.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

I certainly didn't mean that it's harder to win as you get older, I meant that your expectations decrease. I totally expect to grind away for 17 weeks this season and show a solid profit in 2 weeks when I hit everything and that will be my money I make for the year.

Taoist, keep up the good work in the contest. Pullin' for you!

 

[AR182]

went 2-1 last night....

2*u 50(120) c. fla./tulane.....

here is something that supports this play....

play under any team (tulane) against the total after 2 straight lossess by 17 or more points against an opponent after playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored....

last 5 seasons....33-9 ats (78.6%).

good luck.

 

[DIRTY Diapers]

I have the over in the BYU/ND game - ND will win, but BYU can still move the ball agianst ND. Might wait to put a bet in at half time for the game. GL

 

[AR182]

thanks...dd...appreciate it...

some plays for sat.....

3*texas-15...

in this matchup for the big 12 south lead i like texas to control the game with an excellent offensive line.... i also like it that the tex.tech qb is making only his 2nd start on the road....i don't think texas will punt even once in this game....here is something that supports this play.....play on a favorite of 10-21 points(texas) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against an opponent after 2 straight games where the 60 total points or more were scored..since 1992...30-6 ats (83.3%).

3*tulsa-15....

tulsa is out for revenge for being upset last year by smu....tulsa is averaging 37 points per game....smu is 10-70 ats(12.5%) in their last 80 games in which they have allowed 28 or more points.

3*lou.tech.-19....

n.texas only worries about their conference games as witnessed by their 0-10 ats in their last 10 non conference games...here is something interesting....road dogs of more than 5 points off a conference road dog su win of less than 4 points are 0-10 su/ats vs. an opponent not off a non-conference home favorite su & ats win since 1999.

play against n. texas & oregon st.

2*e. mich.+11.....

e.m. has covered 9 of it's last 13 games...miami o's pass defense ranks 109 in the country & won't slow down the em offense on the road...

2*n.car(p)........

virginia could be a little flat this week after the big upset last week over fla. st....also virginia is 4-14 ats in their last 18 road games (0-3 ats this year) & 0-10 ats on the road(since 2001) after a game in which they won & covered the spread....

2*rice+8...

play on any winless college team in game 7 as a single digit home dog...

since 1983....10-3-1 ats (77%)....play rice

good luck.

 

[AR182]

sat's plays....

3*
texas-15
tulsa-15
lou.tech-19

2*
e.mich.+11
n.car.p
rice+8
san jose +7
kent+11
utep-13
u 44 pitt/syr.
unlv+13
mich. st.-12
u 58 kent/n.ill
u 62 calif./wash. st.
u 57 kan.st./ta&m
u 48 utah/unlv
u 58 fresno/idaho
u 45 rutgers/conn
o 53 wyom/col.st
u 44 iowa st./ok. st.
u 45 laf./mts

that should keep me busy for awhile (lol)

good luck.

 

[trolln4walii]

Continued success to you on your plays AR. Look forward to your posts each week. Hope you add lots more "W's" to your great record, especially those Longhorns

 

[AR182]

thanks walii...you are a true gentleman...

adding....

2*ncst.-2.5....

good luck.

 

[boilermaker]

Good Luck today AR. Keep up the good work. :mj14: