Strong Sagarin Play

Scott4USC

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TCU +1 vs Air Force

Sagarin Power Rankings

TCU 78.77
Air Force 66.96


Sagarin has TCU winning by 11.8 pts!

That is a difference of 12.8pts from vegas line.
 

skillrules

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Scott, you are incorrect. Firstly, home team gets 3 points. Air Force is at home. Secondly, you are totally ignoring the Sagarin predictor number. The ranking number is a means to an end, the end being the actual prediction.

It is a mistake to ignore the predictor in which teams vary multiple points from their ranking number.

Predictor Numbers:
TCU 75.41
Air Force 70.98

Air Force +3 points for Home Field

TCU 75.41
Air Force 73.98

Sagarin Predictor for TCU-Air Force = TCU -1.43
 

Scott4USC

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I posted the Sagarin Power Ratings. "The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO-CHESS and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR)."

As far as home field advantage and how many pts to give the home team is subjective. Most give the home team a 3pt edge. Based on Sagarins Power Ratings, he has TCU winning by 11.8pts. Which is a difference of 12.8pts from vegas line. If you give AF 3pt HF advantage, then Sagarin has TCU winning by 8.8pts.

I found this interesting so I posted it.

*In ELO-CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence

*PURE POINTS (Predictor), in which the score margin is the only thing that matters.
 

soul train

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I am on the Falcons...big play

I think they can squeak it out at home

Good luck Scott
 

skillrules

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"In ELO-CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence,
which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for
upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS
, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters.
PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR
of future games. The ELO-CHESS will be utilized by the Bowl Championship Series(BCS)."

Of course political correctness has no place in betting football. To say a USC Victory over Oklahoma by a score of 14 to 13 is exactly the same as a win of 63 to 6 would be assinine. If you want to use a number which the author clearly states is less accurate in predicting games (but more politically correct), that is your option.

As far as home field, no matter how little emphasis you want to place on it, it is still valid and a part of sagarin's ratings so it is inaccurate to post a rating that completely excludes HFA. In your second post you included it, which makes more sense to me.
 

Scott4USC

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Sagarin wins BIG!

TCU wins 48-10 as 1pt underdogs!!!

Unfortunately for me I played it small since I took the week off. :(

I def. will be looking for more situations like this next week!
 

Scott4USC

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skillrules

Why are "you" not a fan of using Sagarin Ratings? It combines both Elo and Predictor. So margin of score is calculated but not heavily weighted.

Some teams have huge offensive firepower and destroy teams. Others win with defense. Predictor favs teams that win with offense and somewhat penalizes those who win with defense. Some teams play conservative with a 10pt lead while others push it.

All in all, the regular ratings involve margin of victory (I am for that) but I also do not want to penalize teams that do not try and win by huge margin. Using a combination of elo and predictor IMO works best.
 
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