lostinamerica,
Like you, I sure am tempted to make a wager on Ohio -3' over BUFFALO. I can come up with several reasons why I should. One being that last year, Ohio -13, spanked the traveling Buffs 34-0. Another being that Buffalo, despite being winless SU, has covered their last five against the number.
Ohio is coming off a solid win/cover at home over Ball State. The operative word in the last sentence was "home". Because on the road, Ohio leaves a lot to be desired. Four opportunities on the road, four no covers and three of them by more than +7 ATS. Buffalo, otoh, has had three opportunities at home and covered each and every time.
In their defense, Ohio has faced the more difficult competition and that's something to consider.
But on the other hand, in Buffalo's last four games, they have gradually improved their ATS margin of cover, +1 / +2' / +6 / +7'.
I'm backing off but will pay close attention to this outcome.
Good luck.