tuesday stickball

[BleedDodgerBlue]

sun 1-0 +3 units
playoffs 18-11 +15.13 u

pending world series play:
astros +121 x 4


I'm in a bit of a bad mood today (as if you care) so I won't say much. All of you people on this board posting about WOW, I'm gonna bet my house and mortgage on the astros. My personal favorite is that the umps are gonna give the game to the astros. Sorry, they will have to earn it. Another favorite is Everyone is on the stros. I'm gonna fade joe public. HELLO, YOU ARE JOE PUBLIC. You are the public. Betting the sox doesn't make you sharp tonight. The line has already been adjusted. The true line of this game is somewhere near -130. and its sitting at -180. So you aren't doing anyone any good if you think you are mr. sharp by fading the public because the line is already adjusted. What should they make the line, -300?? Sorry, felt like venting. Too many wanna be wise guys who are joe public trying not to be and getting all their facts confused. If I sound like an arrogant ass, maybe I am. And maybe if you fade me you'll win. Maybe you'll lose. Its a gambling board.

Stros -180 x 3

gl

 

[gman2]

talk about a post with teeth.
but everything you said is true. plus, theres no "public" side in baseball. the linesmaker isnt trying to entice you with a pointspread.

your team either wins.
or they lose.

all you do is pay the juice, or take in the (+) return, accordingly.

always puzzling when people try to cap a moneyline sport with a "pointspread analysis" kind of approach.

you can't "middle" a baseball game.
maybe rake a few bucks if you're lucky.
but you either win or lose. there's no public side in baseball.

best of luck man

 

[Fairy Dust]

Though I am not looking for "-300", I am looking for +175 or +180. My book has it at Hou -190 and CWS +165. With 78% on Houston. I do recall before the series started that I called for CWS in 4, and you told me that I would see a sweep, but by houston and not chicago. May the best team win!!!

Gl on your plays in nhl

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

thanks for the luck gman

Fairy Dust-
the whole point I was trying to make is that as you put it 78% on the Astros. IT DOESNT MEAN ANYTHING. If the Sox win tonight, which they are definitely capable of, its because they outplay the Astros. It will have nothing to do with fading the public. That means zilch in baseball playoffs as its a moneyline sport and its already sitting at -180 or so. Again sox might win, but you aren't gonna win your bet by fading the public as your handicapping method in a moneyline sport witha line of -180. Books need almost 66% hold to theoritically break even, juice out on a line this high, so 78% means little and I'm sure it will rise as the game progresses, but we might see a buy back, scalp middle period.

As for the series itself, you can't really judge it until both teams have played 2 home games. Sure the series might be over by then, but I don't think so. The Astros haven't even thrown their best pitcher out there yet, nor played a home game. The sox held serve. Wait til houston gets two shots at home (three actually).

I see you are a sox fan which is fine. If I didn't bet the astros in the series, I'd probably be rooting for the sox. I posted a big fat Sox future wager before this season started for them to win the division. I'm not anti-sox. I just think you can't make opinioins until both teams have equal footing.

gl

 

[Fairy Dust]

Bleed,
Points well made. When I was talking about the public, I simply meant that I hoped that they continued to drive up the price of the astros. I know you have nothing against the sox personally, and I also know that you are a good capper. I have watched for your comments for a while. I think that you are an asset to the forum, and I am in no way saying that I am a good capper at all. I just enjoy it, and post what I like about certain games. The thing that really stands out to me in this game, is the home and away records and the level of pitching and defense both teams will provide. Sox have the best away record in the MLB and are 4-0 in the post season away from home. On the other hand Houston had the best NL home record with Oswalt on the mound. I have sox ML and Sox +1.5. I think it will be a final of 4-3 Sox, but who the hell knows what will happen after the first pitch tonight...

 

[Agent 0659]

There you go all making sense again. Arent you special

 

[LetsMakeMoney]

GL BDB right there with u on the stros :mj14:

 

[TheBoys]

BDB,

Thx for the pick and will coat tail you on this one. On the side note, what do you think about Orel H as candidate for the bleeding dodger manager. As died hard fan, we need some one to ride this ship back.