The Judge's Docket - NCAAF Week Nine

[The Judge]

KENT STATE vs. WESTERN MICHIGAN ? October 29th, 2:00 PM EDT
Since WMU HC Bill Cubit decided to start freshman QB Tim Miller three games ago, he has completed 39 of 59 passes for 10 touchdowns and just 1 interception. Besides Miller, the Broncos have the leading receiver in the nation with Greg Jennings who is averaging 10 catches per game and he is joined on the field by RB Trevon Riley who has accounted for 268 yards rushing in the last two games.

Kent is worst rushing team in the nation and have one only one game against Southeastern Missouri State. They are being out rushed 235-57 yards and are 1-53 in their last 54 road games against .251 or better opposition. Nuff said.
The Verdict: WESTERN MICHIGAN (-9)


AIR FORCE vs. BYU ? October 29th, 3:00 PM EDT
Both teams come into this game off of big losses as Air Force was destroyed by a score of 48-10 at home by TCU and BYU traveled to South Bend only to get beaten 49-23 by a Notre Dame that needed to take out their anger on someone after their last second loss to USC the week before.

The Cougars implemented Texas Tech's spread passing attack this season and predictably, QB John Beck is averaging 317 passing yards per game to lead the Mountain West and has completed 63.5% of his passes for 2,219 yards and 14 touchdowns. This offense runs best when they mix their passing game with rushing plays from their two running backs, Curtis Brown and Fahu Tahi.

The AFA runs a spread option attack that is fairly predictable and BYU HC Mendenhall is well known for his defensive acumen. The Falcon?s biggest problem on offense will be moving the ball on the ground as BYU has held their last two opponents (Colorado State and Notre Dame) to a combined 77 yards rushing. Unfortunately for the Flyboys, the problems don?t stop there as the defense has allowed 30.8 points per game on the road and the pass defense is laughable. Air Force?s last five opponents have averaged 273 yards per game through the air for a 68% completion rate. Even Navy went 8 for 12 for 177 yards against this secondary and BYU?s passing attack is ranked 11th in the nation.

Air Force HC Fisher DeBerry got his tail caught in the ringer this week over a racial comment on the speediness of black players and that fiasco has caused quite an uproar on campus although the players seem to be firmly behind the coach. One problem with the comment as it relates to this game is the fact that BYU may be the ?whitest? team in the country and will be ready to show DeBerry that they aren?t exactly flat-footed. Last year, the Cougars dominated the Flyboys at Colorado Springs and I expect something similar to that 41-24 final as the last four games between these two teams has been decided by at least 14 points.
The Verdict: BYU (-7)

 

[bookkilla]

Got em both on my card. Good luck Judge!

 

[The Judge]

MICHIGAN vs. NORTHWESTERN ? October 29th, 7:00 PM EDT
When Northwestern gave up a touchdown in the final seconds and lost their Big Ten opener to Penn State, the Wildcats appeared to be in trouble. Since that game, the Wildcats have taken care of business by upsetting three straight Big Ten teams in Wisconsin, Purdue and Michigan State. It seems like no one is able to stop the dual threat of QB Brett Basanez and RB Tyrell Sutton as the team is averaging over 37 points per game. Sutton is averaging 6.2 yards per carry and should top the 1,000 yard rushing mark in the 1st quarter tonight while Basanez leads the Big Ten in total offense with 350 total yards per game and has thrown for 2,181 yards and 12 touchdowns. The defense has been a different story and are ranked 117th in the nation but the Wildcat?s 4th ranked offense has simply been outscoring their opponents.

Michigan?s last five games have been absolutely grueling. They have played Wisconsin, Michigan State, Minnesota, Penn State and Iowa in consecutive games that all went right down to the final play, with two of them requiring overtime. Now they go back on the road to take on an explosive Northwestern team and if the Wolverines have much left in their tank after that stretch, I will be shocked. Michigan could be without star RB Mike Hart, who left with an ankle injury in last week?s game at Iowa and substitute Kevin Grady is not likely to fill the void he leaves. I do not expect that Michigan QB Chad Henne is going to be able to put up enough points by himself to be able to outscore the Wildcats.

These two teams have played three common opponents, and Northwestern wins those comparisons by 35 points, 10 first downs and 161 yards. Northwestern?s only two losses have been to ranked teams and one of them was to Penn State in the final seconds who coincidently, are only one last second play from being undefeated. The Wildcats? win over Wisconsin gave the Badgers their only loss on the season.

Michigan is 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games as a road favorite and the 49-14 rout that the Wildcat?s laid on Michigan State last week (in Ann Arbor) has me thinking about the money line in this one.
The Verdict: NORTHWESTERN (+3)


TCU vs. SAN DIEGO STATE ? October 29th, 8:00 PM EDT
This week on the sports gambling forums, it seems like there has been more talk about the line in this game than there has been about the World Series and the sides are divided between those who envision a TCU blowout and those who believe that the bookmaker has set some sort of a trap. I will side with the Horned Frog backers.

In their first year in the conference, Texas Christian has cruised through the Mountain West thus far by beating all comers whether is has been at tough venues like Wyoming, BYU and Air Force or at home against New Mexico and Utah. Last week, TCU handed Air Force its 2nd worst conference loss ever as QB Jeff Ballard went 20 of 28 for 302 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for 42 more yards and a 3rd score. The Horned Frogs scored the last 34 points of the game in a 48-10 rout at the academy.

Ballard has caused a lot of people stand up and take notice since replacing injured starter Tye Gunn at quarterback. He has completed 62.5% of his passes for 975 yards, nine touchdowns and only three interceptions and he has rushed for 200 yards and seven more touchdowns. The passing attack is strong but the offense is balanced with a solid running game as well that has accumulated 14 touchdowns this season and is ranked 37th nationally. TCU is outscoring their opponents by an average score of 34-21 and that includes the 50 points scored by BYU in a game that the Frogs won by one point back in September. On defense, TCU loves to blitz and they are tied with Wyoming for the conference lead in sacks with 24. However, the key to the season has been the team's ability to create turnovers. The Frogs have forced 28 turnovers, including 17 interceptions, and leads the nation in turnover margin at +2.13 per game.

The Aztecs actually have a good team as well but have played extremely inconsistently. Last week they were favorites at home to New Mexico but lost 47-24 and the week before, they traveled to Provo where they upset Utah by a score of 28-19. They have only been able to put together back to back wins once all season and their record now stands at 3-5 and two of those losses (Air Force and New Mexico) are teams that have already been beaten by TCU this season by scores of 48-10 and 47-24. The Aztecs have struggled against the run allowing an average of 179 yards per game on the ground and 21 rushing touchdowns.

San Diego State has now lost 15 games in a row against ranked opponents since upsetting 16th ranked Wyoming in 1996. In SDSU?s last 22 games against .750 or better teams, they are 0-22 SU at any site and a perfect 0-9 ATS on their home field. On the other hand, TCU is 29-4 ATS in its last 33 conference road wins and is an amazing 20-1 ATS in those games when the opponent was better than .250 on the season.
The Verdict: TEXAS CHRISTIAN (-6.5)