113-82 +16.50*....
won/lost record is good but am not hitting my larger plays.....
6*c. mich.+10(120).....holding another 4*on +10 which i may try to middle...
imo what we have here is a well regarded toledo team that is over-valued for this game based on past performances.by mac standards toledo is still a good football team, but not as high powered as previous teams & the main reason for this is the loss of highly regarded oc spence, who left to take the same job at clemson....
this year toledo is gaining over 80 ppg less in the air than last year & is 0-3 ats on the road & gaining 97 ypg & scoring 15 ppg less on the road than at home.
on the other hand, cmu (coming off a bye) is 4-1 ats as a dog & has played a tougher schedule than toledo.....they have a versitile sr. qb in smith (60% completion), & a dangerous wr in linson & a swift runner in sneed....on defense, cmu is allowing 3.7 ypc,& yielding 22 ppg (down from 35 3 years ago)....
here is an interesting angle that i have read concerning teams coming off a week 8 bye....
since 1980, teams in week 8 (coming off a bye), that are not playing in b2b losses, are 51-31-3 ats (62%) when taking on a conference opponent that is off a win....this week game 8 resters are...BOSTON COLLEGE, FLORIDA, & CENTRAL MICHIGAN...
a way to enhance these numbers is taking a team who is playing in b2b home games....their ats record is 28-14 (66%)...MINN.& C. MICH. apply to this angle.....
to enhance it even further is to take a team who is playing an opponent who has a won/lost % of <.850.....the ats record for this is 41-19-2 (69%)....both MINN. & C. MICH. qualify here also...
to enhance this angle even further....have the game 8 rester playing off b2b su & ats wins...the ats record is 16-4 (80%) in this role, including 10-1 ats (91%) if the opponent is off b2b wins.....the team that qualifys for this play is...C.MICH.
good luck.
won/lost record is good but am not hitting my larger plays.....
6*c. mich.+10(120).....holding another 4*on +10 which i may try to middle...
imo what we have here is a well regarded toledo team that is over-valued for this game based on past performances.by mac standards toledo is still a good football team, but not as high powered as previous teams & the main reason for this is the loss of highly regarded oc spence, who left to take the same job at clemson....
this year toledo is gaining over 80 ppg less in the air than last year & is 0-3 ats on the road & gaining 97 ypg & scoring 15 ppg less on the road than at home.
on the other hand, cmu (coming off a bye) is 4-1 ats as a dog & has played a tougher schedule than toledo.....they have a versitile sr. qb in smith (60% completion), & a dangerous wr in linson & a swift runner in sneed....on defense, cmu is allowing 3.7 ypc,& yielding 22 ppg (down from 35 3 years ago)....
here is an interesting angle that i have read concerning teams coming off a week 8 bye....
since 1980, teams in week 8 (coming off a bye), that are not playing in b2b losses, are 51-31-3 ats (62%) when taking on a conference opponent that is off a win....this week game 8 resters are...BOSTON COLLEGE, FLORIDA, & CENTRAL MICHIGAN...
a way to enhance these numbers is taking a team who is playing in b2b home games....their ats record is 28-14 (66%)...MINN.& C. MICH. apply to this angle.....
to enhance it even further is to take a team who is playing an opponent who has a won/lost % of <.850.....the ats record for this is 41-19-2 (69%)....both MINN. & C. MICH. qualify here also...
to enhance this angle even further....have the game 8 rester playing off b2b su & ats wins...the ats record is 16-4 (80%) in this role, including 10-1 ats (91%) if the opponent is off b2b wins.....the team that qualifys for this play is...C.MICH.
good luck.
