Is betting on the NFL really worth it?

[LonghornMM]

After yesterday's BS I'm convinced that you would do just as well if not better if you posted the teams logos on the wall and threw darts at them to make picks ATS in the NFL. From here forward I think I'm going to do nothing more than fade the public and go with the book reports and fade. This is unbelievable!

Washington getting shut out and the under?
Green Bay covering at Cincy and the under?
The BS penalty on Tennessee during Pac Man's punt return, which nullified it and cost the Titans the cover?
New Orleans coming home and laying down like that?
The Rams Jamie Martin playing waaay over his head like he did yesterday?
KC laying an egg and the under!!??
SF not only covering but beating TB straight up?
Philly getting blown out at Denver?
New England not blowing out Buffalo and covering at home on a Sunday night?

I'm sticking with college ball where I've done really good this year.

SCREW THE NFL!!

Thoughts?

 

[Stabler-12]

Fading what the public is betting is a good system in the NFL.
If you watch what goes on you can usually pick atleast one good fade a week. Example- everyone was on the Bengals this week at home against a bad Greenbay team and the Bengals coming off a big loss. What happens? Greenbay keeps it close and all the folks who were all over Cincy lose thier bets. Good Luck

 

[cmamoulelis]

sounds like sour grapes to me

why is it so weird and wacky that the giants would kill the redskins on such an emotional day? ...that simms making his 3rd career start stunk up the joint?...that the bengals won but not convincingly?..N.O. laying down????? come on dude

i didnt have a winning week overall either but i'm not flabbergasted by the results

 

[inzone]

If you are much better at college than at Pro than I would definately stay away from the pros. Like they say any given sunday, a team can just show up. Weird things happen in pro sports in general.

I couldnt believe that Cincy didnt win convincingly, I mean cmon they had 5 interceptions.

 

[Cabo]

I haven't posted my NFL plays this year, and Im not going to say I played so and so on Sunday, but I do try to limit my plays. I usually play two maybe three, and rarely have I gone with public favorites. With that being said, It does seem to me aleast that picking NFL winners was easier a few years back. Now I have to really look at every possible angle, try to stick with dogs and small favorites that the public is going against. I haven't been stellar in my NFL plays, but I am up for the season. College has definitely been more profitable for me as well. Have a good one..Cabo...

 

[Phenom]

Lots of parity in the NFL, you have to remember that when picking teams each week. Hence Washington blowing out San Fran and then getting blown out by NYG.

 

[Save It]

LonghornMM - this is an interesting post - and my recommendation is to re-read exactly what you wrote in your post and to use this info to your advantage...my motto in sports betting in general is to "expect the unexpected"...

i play mostly dogs - now i don't go and play every dog on the board - i play selective dogs...for example yesterday i played the Bears and Buffalo - 2 teams i really felt strongly would be competititve, and they were...now here is the beauty of fading the public - and in most cases that will mean you are backing the underdog - when you back the underdog you get 2 ways to win - they cover or they win outright...when you back the favorite, not only do they have to win - but they have to cover that predetermined amount - like last night no doubt NE was odds on favorite to win - but you saw how close they were to losing outright...and they never were at a point of covering that spread the whole game...

Look at some of the scenarios you mentioned - SF winning outright, Wash laying an egg, Pack covering, Buff covering...Rams winning, Saints losing - well if you would "expect the unexpected" that would put you on a nice contrarian view and you would have been backing some of those teams...

The worst way to bet the NFL is to go by what happened last week or by thinking "TB should blow out SF" - instead look for reasons why SF may hang around and cover the 11 or ask why are the Giants favroed by 2 when the Skins have played so well...my point is every week after it is all said and done we hear people complain about how the NFL doesn't go to form and how tough it is - well you need to think outside the box - as you posted you can see that w/ the parity in the NFL it is almost impossible to just think logically every week...so many thought Pats would "blow out" Buffalo - i am extremely cautious to ever conclude a team will blow out another team...just doesn't happen enough...

Just want you to keep your head up and not conclude betting the NFL is impossible - it is very hard if you go in thinking everything will go "how it is supposed to go"...

Before making any NFL wagers next week "expect the unexpected"...now i'm not saying that all power teams will fail to cover - that's not true - but lean to dogs, look for those live dogs who have a shot at winning or covering...

Also - home teams have been covering at a nice clip this year - so look for those home dogs - and just make only a few plays each week - no need to play 7 to 10 NFL games - just play a couple of games a week...

Keep your eye on those dogs getting 7+ points...i know this season haven't covered as much as usual - mainly seen some blowouts of SF & Houston - but over the years in NFL these have been solid plays...even in those games Indy was -15 - i mean sure they are a superior team but man i couldn't lay 15 in the NFL...as much as you expect blowout i've just seen the dog cover so many times in that spot...

look for the dogs, look to fade the public - look to get as much point spread value as you can - you rarely get point spread value betting the favorite...especially one of a TD+ - keep that in mind...

wish you best of luck - just stop and think about this stuff instead of getting frustrated and giving up...if you are in a losing streak cut down your wager amounts or take some time off and keep track on paper what you would play for the week until you figure out betting the NFL better...nothing wrong w/ making adjustments to your handicapping style - it's what you have to do to succeed...

if you got any other questions i'm always around to help...keep your head up & best of luck to you - you will succeed betting the NFL if you think positive, and if your current strategy is not working take some advice from those who have proven they can win - i've been doing this for 6 years and have been a winning player every single year - i keep immaculate records so i know exactly where i stand at all times...but before i started wagering 6 years ago for a couple of years while in college i just kept track in a notebook the plays i liked for the week - no money on the line - it was after i proved to myself over those couple of years that i returned a nice "paper profit" that i started to risk my money once i got out of college and got a nice job...i do know when i first started doing this keeping track i struggled at first because i like many rookies was picking too many favorites - right then and there i noticed that thinking outside the box - putting my faith in the dogs was the way to go - rest is history...i could have been stubborn and said i can't beat this game - but instead i researched, i put time into it - i learned from others - i always kept an open mindset and positive attitude and now every day i bet i have full confidence that what i play will win in the long run...

Good luck & take care!

 

[baby johnson]

save it's post is the reason Madjack's is the greatest sports forum around !!!!!!!!!!

ditto to everything he said. right now you're paying for your gambling education, it will reap benefits if you listen and learn

jr capper

ps AI'm sure 99% (probably 100%)of the degenerate gamblers (me included) have had to learn the hard way, but eventually you realize whats really going on

 

[hedgehog]

LAst year that same thing happened, I bet college and 3 games max in the nfl each week. Agreed, the playoffs are even worse.

 

[Fairy Dust]

"Expect the Unexpected"

This is my second year. Last year I ended up +14.5 units. I know its not much, but it was a start.

After reading Save It's post it made me think about tonight's game. My line is -12 and O/U 34.5. W/ 84% on Pitt's spread and 84% on the over. The unexpected thing that comes to mind is Ben's knee being reinjured in the 1st qtr, and how horrible Pitt looked with Maddox at the helm. If he goes down, not only does Balt have a chance to win SU, but the over could be shot. Crazy things happen every game. GL to you, and Nice write ups by MJ's members.

 

[LonghornMM]

Save It,

Very nice post! Thanks for the advice and words encouragement. I'm sure there are many other people who post on here that feel the same frustration that I do, but won't post it.

I plan on going very lightly on the NFL the rest of this year and mainly fade the public and bet on smart dogs.

 

[grandpa]

It is common knowledge that the public tends to favor Favorites and OVERS overall, whiole over time the #s nearly balance as to fave/dog covers and over/under totals.

There are short term tendencies, such as books having to adjust to rules changes, but over time it will almost balance.

Fading the public makes sense on so many levels, and the most obvious is the new construction in Las Vegas, NV. If the public were right more than wrong, especially when 80-90 % of the action is on one side, Vegas could not be expanding like this.

The house only needs to win 47.6 % of the straight -110 plays to break even, and then when you factor in the odds edge on parlays, teasers, and props, it is no surprise that the house will win over time.

Further, the house would not put out lines as gifts to the public, exposing themselves to a slaughter. Of course it does happen sometimes, as there is no way to make a line to get a balance on some games.

I have been tracking lines since the beginning of this NFL season and recording all of the games at sportsbook.com where the public is 80% or higher on one side or total.

As of today, before the MNF game ( Bal-Pit), Fading the public on sides has gone 15-10-1, or 60%.

2-1 on yesterday's card :

81% public on NE
94% on Jax
82% on Oak


On totals, it is even more evident, as there is an unbalanced proportion on Over plays. After yesterday, Fading the public has gone 16-8-2, for 66.67%.

2-1 on yesterday's card:

85% on Wash-NYG over
82% on KC-SD Over
85% on Oak-Tenn Over

In 24 of the 26 plays where the public was on a total more than 80%, the public was on the OVER. The squares LOVE the over, plain and simple. And truth be told, while some seasons it veers towards overs for part of the year and unders for other parts, the bottom line is it is in the 51-49 range by the end of the year.


15-10-1 SIdes
16-8-2 Totals, just fading the public.

and oh, by the way, the public is all over Pitt tonight(84%) and the Over (85%).

FWIW

Vegas isn't getting bigger every day because the public is smarter.

 

[pug]

I used to have a hard time winning on NFL......... I changed the way I looked at games and I started cleaning up. I now look at the emotion of the teams as my number one factor in betting the games. How good the teams are is a secondary factor. Most that bet on the NFL do the opposite.

I consider these things the most important in betting NFL.

1. Good team coming off a loss, especially if at home. Especially if playing a team off a big win.
2. Revenge.
3. Must win games to stay in the divisional race.
4. Injuries.
5. Travel schedule.
6. What team is on deck, are they looking ahead?

After these are considered I adjust for how good the teams are, but that is only a secondary factor.

I've also been doing well on 7 point teasers and money line parlays. You should check into those.

Up 44 units so far on the year.

Hopefully this will help you out.

 

[yyz]

The "Public" will always love the favorite and the "over". It is common to our base understanding of things:

• The Favorite
  
  Simply put. They are seen as the better of the two teams. Who the hell wants to back the eventual "loser"? Getting points sounds real nice, doesn't it?
  
  "I'm getting 13' points if I take the underdog?"
  
  
  Well......the first thing that starts going through your head is how shitty these guys must be if they are getting that kind of lumber! Why the hell do I want these guys trying to make me money? "I am siding with the good team!"
  
  Happens every day! We all do it. You may handicap a game, and you may like the dog, and you may actually bet the dog! But.....In your mind, you reeeeeeally have to convince yourself!
  
  
• The Over
  
  This is even easier to understand:
  
  Once you have the "over" attained, you have won! No more sweating it out! If the total on a game is 35, and it is 21-17 at the half, you are doing cartwheels! There is no "back-door cover" going to screw you over. There is no "bad call" going to get you blood up. (The only thing that can fuk you over is a transformer getting hit by a car a few miles from the stadium in Las Vegas!)
  
  :cursin:
  
  On the other hand.......You have to sweat every single second of the game if you bet the under. You can't rest on a 3-3 halftime score, since both teams can fire up 21 points in the second half! How many guys have lost a college "under" by having 20+ points scored in "overtime"?

We like things simple, and the favorite and the over fill that role for us. The books have long stated that if we ever have a Sunday when all of the favorites, and all of the overs hit, it will wipe out the books! Although it would be kinda sweet to see it happen, I don't really want to see it go down.

 

[bej0101]

great info

 

[pt1gard]

funny, im about 10xs better in nfl than cfb .... talking about unpredictable, cfb seems much tougher, too many teams i guess

 

[Randercity]

I'm the same way pt1... LOVE THE NFL!!!!

BUT, I mainly play TEASERS and HT.... that's about it. Every now and again, I'll play something else, but it's rare. Don't forget what I wrote a few weeks ago, "LET THE MAN HELP YOU". The linesmakers are very good at what they do, so use THEIR knowledge against them to gain an advantage.... such as playing HT's and TEASERS. Look it up.... two weeks ago I posted it with my plays. I've hit the last 3 weekends for over 50 Units or so betting NFL. I don't keep YTD record so can't give that to you, but if you check my thread yesterday, gained another 17-18 units with like 25 pllays. If you can't pick em yourself, TAIL a hot capper, or a combination of guys like SAM, THUNDER, Raymond, VOLFAN, FLETCHER, etc.... there are so many great cappers here to choose from. NO FEE NO PAY, just decide and PLAY!!

Good luck!