I got too much time on my hands...

[Clem D]

I decided to track how teams who win or lose by 17 or more points this year do the following week ATS, thinking that maybe lines would get adjusted too far. Also thinking the teams who got beat would respond better than teams who did the beating the week before.

So far this year fading teams that won by 17 or more the week week before would have you with a record of 12-7-1

with fades upcoming this week on
Colts
Cowboys
and Detroit


So far this season if you played on every team ats who got beat by 17 or more the week before you are 10-5-1.
With plays this week on
Ravens
Saints

If anyone has a good database to checjk this trend over the longhaul I'd love to see how it has done the last 5 years or so.

 

[soul train]

Keep working hard clem :mj14:

 

[sethseth]

I love it.

 

[forest29]

Nice Clem.

 

[MrChristo]

(No 17+ ats info...but I have 21+ ats....)

Since 2000:

Teams off a 21+ ats loss are: 68-61-4.
At home: 32-36-2
Away: 36-25-1

FAVS off a 21+ ats loss are 28-17-1
AWAY FAVS off a 21+ ats loss as 7-1!!

In fact, since 1989, away favs, off an away 21+ ats loss as 13-4. (2-0 last season)

Home DOGS off a 21+ ats loss are 11-17-1 (3-26 SU)

Hope that helps some.

 

[Clem D]

Thanks pal

 

[Clem D]

Updating:
Fading teams coming off a 17 + point win this season is now 14-8-1
Detroit was -1 at the time I posred this so that is the line I used.
The line closed with carolina as a point to point and a half favorite.
This weeks fades would be
Bears-1 and Seattle -3

Updating a play on any team coming off a 17 or more point loss is now at 12 -5-1 after a 2-0 week.. Plays this week would be on
Vikings +1.5 and houston +15

 

[Stabler-12]

Thanks Clem I like the angles and I favor the Saints this week.
Goodluck

 

[Clem D]

Updating: Fading teams coming off a 17 or more point win is now
14-9-2.

This weeks fades are

Colts
Skins
Raiders

Playing on teams that got beat by 17 or more is now at
13-6-1

This weeks plays
Texans, 49ers, Bills

 

[Clem D]

Bills??

 

[countinguy]

Bills??

Like It Clem, GL TONITE!! :clap:

 

[Perseo]

Updating: Fading teams coming off a 17 or more point win is now
14-9-2.

This weeks fades are

Colts
Skins
Raiders

Playing on teams that got beat by 17 or more is now at
13-6-1

This weeks plays
Texans, 49ers, Bills

week 8
teams coming off a 17 or more point
1-1

teams that got beat by 17 or more
3-0

:clap:

 

[Dice34]

Eagles and Redskins both coming off 17 pt blowout losses, but they play each other, who do we choose? :shrug:

 

[Clem D]

Toss that one away.

 

[AR182]

very interesting info...guys...

keep up the good work...

 

[winw]

Clem, Week 9 Minny, Arz ?

 

[Statman02]

Carolina ??

 

[Clem D]

Have to double check the math later but these trends are still firing.

If you fade teams coming off wins of 17 or more you are now at
17-11-1
This week fade Jags Panthers

Playing on teams coming of losses of 17 or more
19-6-1 This year!!!! Play Jets/ Ravens

Jets look nice at +13

 

[Clem D]

Still going

Fading teams coming off a 17 + point win went 2-0 last week

now 19-11-1 for the year

a solid 61.2%


Playing teams coming off a 17 + point win went 1-1 last week
now 20-7-1 ytd a sizzling 71.4%

 

[Clem D]

This week Fade Cleveland, Denver, KC

Play on Miami, Jets, and texans