Louisville Pitt Thursday ESPN
- Thread starter wormdog
- Start date
Louisville and the over, if you want to turn it!
I think Pitt. will try and keep up but they end up getting their ass kicked.
I will say Pitt. has been playing better, but hell, they couldn't have been playing any worse.
Roll ****in Tide
I think Pitt. will try and keep up but they end up getting their ass kicked.
I will say Pitt. has been playing better, but hell, they couldn't have been playing any worse.
Roll ****in Tidewormdog said:
back to 66 now, expect it to be 68 or so by game time. Any schmo with a computer and a cable modem can figure out Louisville scores 60+ at home by themselves
This brings me to my point. I play by the theory that when something in football is wacky, or too good to be true, it probably is. That being said, why has vegas set this line at 66?
First, Louisville is 21 point favs. For them to win by THAT many, they will play their usual game at home, and that means score more than 50 points. Now, presuming their assumption is right, Louisville wins in a blowout, this game HAS to go over 66. NOW, the reason why I think the over wins whether Louisville covers or NOT, is because there is only so much you can do to slow down a great offensive team. Even if Pitt holds Louisville to say 2 TD's less than their average at home, Louisville still gets 40+. if you think PItt has a shot in this game with the +21, that means PITT has to get around 20 points. If you think PITT has a chance to WIN OR STAY REAL CLOSE, then theres NO WAY this game doesnt get over 66 points. I think the experts think this game goes over 70, but remember that VEGAS wants action on BOTH sides. They throw a 70 point line up there and everyone will bet under. I think 66 gets some action on both sides, some people simply refuse to bet an over with a line that high, while there are some like me who know whats going to happen tonight, haha. That explains why this O/U hasnt really moved either, great money coming in on both sides, exactly what the powers that be want.
TO add to my discussion above, a VERY good way to break down O/U bets is to look at some props. The O/U for Louisville alone tonight is 43.5
The O/U for pitt alone tonight is 22.5
Ask yourself how you would attack those two lines. if you think one is out of whack, for example you think Louisville will score less than 40, and you know VEGAS thinks pitt is good for 3 TDs or so, then you would bet under
That being said, I decide on O/Us with my first gut reaction to seeing the number. Yesterday this gut reaction said over and today it does too.
The O/U for pitt alone tonight is 22.5
Ask yourself how you would attack those two lines. if you think one is out of whack, for example you think Louisville will score less than 40, and you know VEGAS thinks pitt is good for 3 TDs or so, then you would bet under
That being said, I decide on O/Us with my first gut reaction to seeing the number. Yesterday this gut reaction said over and today it does too.
Louisville at home the last 2 years:
v. Kentucky 28-0
v. E. Carolina 59-7
v. S. Florida 41-9
v. TCU 55-28
v. Cincinnati 70-7
2005
v. UNC 69-14
v. FLA Atlantic 61-10
v. Oregon St. 63-27
Perfect ATS! I know this isn't the greatest of handicapping method. But, are you going to go against it? With Pitt? And I know Louisville is not as good as last year, but still...
Louisville 54-17 :drinky:
v. Kentucky 28-0
v. E. Carolina 59-7
v. S. Florida 41-9
v. TCU 55-28
v. Cincinnati 70-7
2005
v. UNC 69-14
v. FLA Atlantic 61-10
v. Oregon St. 63-27
Perfect ATS! I know this isn't the greatest of handicapping method. But, are you going to go against it? With Pitt? And I know Louisville is not as good as last year, but still...
Louisville 54-17 :drinky:
