Can someone please give me an idea of math model for predicting spreads and total?

[bbk]

I know everyone uses different math models to predict spreads and totals for college football, nfl football and basketball. I was wondering if anyone could point me in the right direction on where I could find different ones that people use. I had heard the people in vegas that first predict the lines have power ratings that they move up and down throughout the year to help them predict spreads and totals. Any help would be appreciated.
Thanks

I was looking for some math system that does figure in home field and different things like that.

 

[ryson]

multiple-variable regression analysis or perhaps ANOVA

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

this works well for most nba totals and college fball totals, doesn't work so well with nfl sides


Kr:[-?к?Н->R+
be non negative continuous function such that Kr(-?Щ=Kr(?Щ
1/(2?Щ ?ҋr(s)ds=1( integral on [-?к?Н)
and for any l>0
limKr(x)=0 when r->?޼br /> uniformly for |x|?ݬ.let f be a 2 ?Эperiodic continuous function.Show that f*Kr->f for
r->?ޠuniformaly with respect to x in [-?к?Н

 

[mode the lode]

exactly

 

[IE]

for the NFL it might look something like this:

http://home.hawaii.rr.com/predictor/predict.txt

 

[Franky Wright]

e=mc2*(~)O :scared

Its really that simple! :clap:

 

[BahamaMama]

Kr:[-?к?Н->R+
be non negative continuous function such that Kr(-?Щ=Kr(?Щ
1/(2?Щ ?ҋr(s)ds=1( integral on [-?к?Н)
and for any l>0
limKr(x)=0 when r->?޼br /> uniformly for |x|?ݬ.let f be a 2 ?Эperiodic continuous function.Show that f*Kr->f for
r->?ޠuniformaly with respect to x in [-?к?Н

that went SOOOOOO far over my head i think it just downed a jet.

 

[Handi Capper]

lmfao
.

 

[ScreaminPain]

Well, you asked. For the NFL I use this:
=(((C2+D2)/B2)+(E3+F3)/B3)/2

C=offensive rushing ydg.
D=offensive passing ydg
B= number of games played
E=rushing defensive yds. allowed
F=passing defensive yds. allowed

then compute this:
=(C2+D2)/G2
G=total offensive points :mj03:

Divide the first equation by the latter=projected points for that game...

Do this for both teams and you will have a projected score....

The difference will be the projected point spread. Then you factor the "strength of Schedule", Home field advantage, injuries, weather at the game site...wallla!!!!

If your number is different from the posted line, you've got the makings of a bet!!

I know this sounds complicated, but I have it on an excel program and it calculates automatically when I enter the required numbers.

If this sounds like too much trouble, then just say "fvck it" and read all the posts by the good 'cappers in this forum....... :mj07:

 

[i'm not the one]

just fade me.....................tomorrow i love wisky +11

fade away :mj14: